2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

Gen Z men can move Republican in the future though. A majority of them are vocally anti-woke and anti-cancel culture, even if they agree with dems on most policy. They can probably be appealed to with culture war issues.
Gen Z women are literally the stereotype of woke liberals. It's impossible to ever make them vote Republican.
In 30 years the gender gap will be huge.

[Unelectable Bystander]

It’s funny timing actually yesterday I received the college magazine in the mail from the school I attended for grad school. They had a page about a 2020 election poll from the school. I figured it’d be interesting info. Keep in mind that it’s a well known school but not one that’s particularly known for liberalism relative to other schools, so it may be more conservative than the college aged population at large. On the other hand, that might be canceled out by the liberal response bias that you get in any poll at an educational institution.

~85% voted in 2020

-67% Biden 27% Trump

-About 25% self ID as republican, 35% independent, 40% democrat

-Among males, it was a roughly even split between conservative, moderate, and liberal

-Among females, a whopping majority of the poll was liberal

-Trump voters prioritized economy, abortion, and immigration in that order. Biden voters prioritized coronavirus, racial justice, and climate change in that order

This seems to line up with the Gen Z gender gap people are referring to. A college educated male sample of 33% conservative is a decent number for republicans, since that’s not too far below the nationwide average and will likely rise over time. The female ideological breakdown is so strong though. Another interesting thing is that seems to imply that trump won barely any independents, or he won some and lost a huge chunk of republicans. This speaks to the idea that Trump is a uniquely bad fit at colleges

[jkmillion]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

[jkmillion]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

[jkmillion]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

Really the only other things Trump can actually do to worsen the odds so that Democrats having a chance holding a majority is; Trump endorses Blake Masters; NH GOP choosing Wendy Long; probably another one I am forgetting.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

I think Oz is a much more formidable candidate than McCormick so I have to disagree.

[jkmillion]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

I think Oz is a much more formidable candidate than McCormick so I have to disagree.

I can tell you definitely that both Fetterman and Lamb want to face Dr. Oz. He is something else. Quite literally, if Lamb won the primary(Dems kind of messed up in the PA primary) the Democrats would be favored to win Pennsylvania Senate race even in this GOP wave.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

I think Oz is a much more formidable candidate than McCormick so I have to disagree.

I can tell you definitely that both Fetterman and Lamb want to face Dr. Oz. He is something else. Quite literally, if Lamb won the primary(Dems kind of messed up in the PA primary) the Democrats would be favored to win Pennsylvania Senate race even in this GOP wave.

I disagree. McCormick being the nominee would play perfectly into Fetterman's "working class dem vs banker elite republican" campaign.
And Oz has appeal to suburban women, whereas I can't think of a single group McCormick would do better than your average Republican with, he's generally a very terrible candidate and Romney 2.0.

[jkmillion]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

I think Oz is a much more formidable candidate than McCormick so I have to disagree.

I can tell you definitely that both Fetterman and Lamb want to face Dr. Oz. He is something else. Quite literally, if Lamb won the primary(Dems kind of messed up in the PA primary) the Democrats would be favored to win Pennsylvania Senate race even in this GOP wave.

I disagree. McCormick being the nominee would play perfectly into Fetterman's "working class dem vs banker elite republican" campaign.
And Oz has appeal to suburban women, whereas I can't think of a single group McCormick would do better than your average Republican with, he's generally a very terrible candidate and Romney 2.0.

That is legit not how politics works at all. Dr. Oz campaign worse than David Perdue no show debate at actually convincing people to vote for him. Guy is somehow down in the polls to both Lamb and Fetterman in a race that shouldn't have the Democrats leading. I believe gaffes, being a carpetbagger, his long list of opposition research, and whatever he did in Turkey is making him one of the worst Senate candidates in this entire cycle(Blake Masters and Hanks are legit better candidates than Oz)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I can safely say that the Democrats have been doing well in the past week or so. I guess the GOP cares much more about internal purity than actually winning. I am not really surprised. My projections have the Republicans winning roughly 52-53 Senate seats in November rather than the apocalyptical 55 Senate seats. Go Democrats.

Apart from Colorado throwing their race away, what makes you say that?

A lot of things. Esp Trump endorsing Oz, the GOP is trying to throw away their 2022 Senate chances away pretty much because Trump cares much more about party politics rather than overall Republicans winning(idk why he primaries Kemp still)

I think Oz is a much more formidable candidate than McCormick so I have to disagree.

I can tell you definitely that both Fetterman and Lamb want to face Dr. Oz. He is something else. Quite literally, if Lamb won the primary(Dems kind of messed up in the PA primary) the Democrats would be favored to win Pennsylvania Senate race even in this GOP wave.

I disagree. McCormick being the nominee would play perfectly into Fetterman's "working class dem vs banker elite republican" campaign.
And Oz has appeal to suburban women, whereas I can't think of a single group McCormick would do better than your average Republican with, he's generally a very terrible candidate and Romney 2.0.

That is legit not how politics works at all. Dr. Oz campaign worse than David Perdue no show debate at actually convincing people to vote for him. Guy is somehow down in the polls to both Lamb and Fetterman in a race that shouldn't have the Democrats leading. I believe gaffes, being a carpetbagger, his long list of opposition research, and whatever he did in Turkey is making him one of the worst Senate candidates in this entire cycle(Blake Masters and Hanks are legit better candidates than Oz)

Agree to disagree I guess. I also think Masters is a strong candidate. Also that one poll that showed Oz down to Fetterman by 2 was an internal Fetterman poll by Data For Progress lol.

[Ferguson97]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

Gen Z men can move Republican in the future though. A majority of them are vocally anti-woke and anti-cancel culture, even if they agree with dems on most policy. They can probably be appealed to with culture war issues.
Gen Z women are literally the stereotype of woke liberals. It's impossible to ever make them vote Republican.
In 30 years the gender gap will be huge.

That's still a huge problem for Republicans though, if Gen Z women vote for Democrats by whopping majorities and Gen Z men are split at best.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

Gen Z men can move Republican in the future though. A majority of them are vocally anti-woke and anti-cancel culture, even if they agree with dems on most policy. They can probably be appealed to with culture war issues.
Gen Z women are literally the stereotype of woke liberals. It's impossible to ever make them vote Republican.
In 30 years the gender gap will be huge.

That's still a huge problem for Republicans though, if Gen Z women vote for Democrats by whopping majorities and Gen Z men are split at best.

I think as they age, most Gen Z men will vote GOP. The two-party system always balances out.

[Ferguson97]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

Gen Z men can move Republican in the future though. A majority of them are vocally anti-woke and anti-cancel culture, even if they agree with dems on most policy. They can probably be appealed to with culture war issues.
Gen Z women are literally the stereotype of woke liberals. It's impossible to ever make them vote Republican.
In 30 years the gender gap will be huge.

That's still a huge problem for Republicans though, if Gen Z women vote for Democrats by whopping majorities and Gen Z men are split at best.

I think as they age, most Gen Z men will vote GOP. The two-party system always balances out.

It does until it doesn't. Republicans were locked out of power from 1932-1948, and Democrats only won one election between 1968-1988. I could see a scenario where Republicans are temporarily locked out of the presidency due to the very liberal Gen Z, but then as Gen Alpha becomes of voting age, they are disproportionately conservative.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The gender gap among Gen Z will likely converge a bit once they get married. Whether that will benefit dems or repubs remains to be seen.

[2016]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

I mean it makes sense. Democrats have barely done anything, and the GOP's midterm strategy seems to just be boosting base turnout as much as humanly possible.

[SnowLabrador]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

I mean it makes sense. Democrats have barely done anything, and the GOP's midterm strategy seems to just be boosting base turnout as much as humanly possible.

American politics: The feckless vs. the fascists. The feckless party doesn't fix the fascists' mess quickly enough, so they're voted out. Eventually they're voted in again after the fascists screw up once more. Only next time, we won't be able to get this country back.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1513971740334034953

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ducey was already losing to Kelly Kelly was ahead 50/47 against both of them Brnovich and Ducey, Rs did no favors by censuring Ducey

[lfromnj]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/516971-gov-desantis-map-reshapes-tampa-bay-and-eliminates-a-battleground/

Florida gerrymander causes a bit of a shuffle. Democrats now have to debate if its worth trying for FL 13th which would be Trump +7.

Bilrakis will run for the Pasco county seat instead of the Pinellas seat which would still be swingy even if a hard pull for Democrats.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

I mean it makes sense. Democrats have barely done anything, and the GOP's midterm strategy seems to just be boosting base turnout as much as humanly possible.

American politics: The feckless vs. the fascists. The feckless party doesn't fix the fascists' mess quickly enough, so they're voted out. Eventually they're voted in again after the fascists screw up once more. Only next time, we won't be able to get this country back.

The Democratic Party has made a mess of their own. National dems deserve what they are about to get in November if they keep gaslighting about inflation. While Trump deserves some blame for inflation, Biden has only made inflation worse with his actions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ds aren't a Mess Biden won 50/45 not 60/40 and he is 46/49 APPROVALS, not trash tier QU it's a 303/235 map and under a 303 Map we lost seats last time in the H, Cook has the H going R due to TX plus 5 net R seats and Cook has S as a Tossup, Johnson is not safe due to fact he won only by 200K votes like all the 306 seats were within 200K votes

I keep telling users that Biden Approvals are on par with his narrow winning 2020 46/49 in You Gov today and he won narrowly 50/45 and it's on April not Nov


If Rs were doing so well they would be leading in OR and Betsy Johnson is mounting a third party campaign Betsy Johnson is winning not Rs, she will win a VBM campaign of about 500 votes over Tina Kotek she won't win by a landslide like CANTWELL win a VBM campaign by 500 votes

If the Election were held today it would be a 51/47 Senate and GA will go to a Runoff and LA could  and probably lose 8 seats in H Pappas and Golden will both win, Golden overperformed Mills, 🛑 thinking Biden won 60/40 he won 50/45 like his 46/49 users overthink his Approvaks because last yr Biden was at 57 due to 2K checks well thanks to Ukraine stimulus money is going there instead of here

Trump can't win again I'd he doesn't have RGovs in WI, MI PA that's all Biden needs to get reelected and there are no polls in them

[Hollywood]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

I mean it makes sense. Democrats have barely done anything, and the GOP's midterm strategy seems to just be boosting base turnout as much as humanly possible.

American politics: The feckless vs. the fascists. The feckless party doesn't fix the fascists' mess quickly enough, so they're voted out. Eventually they're voted in again after the fascists screw up once more. Only next time, we won't be able to get this country back.

The Democratic Party has made a mess of their own. National dems deserve what they are about to get in November if they keep gaslighting about inflation. While Trump deserves some blame for inflation, Biden has only made inflation worse with his actions.

I actually think half the Democrats are living on a different planet, because they literally believe everything they hear on CNN and the NYTimes.  You know what you don't get on CNN?  All the Democrats in swing districts bashing Biden for his constant stupidity.  They are straight-up calling Biden out for wrecking the country.  There are multiple segments where they're are reading brutal quotes from Sinema and Manchin.  I don't even care about the airtime they're getting.  I take personal now when Ds start calling people racist for defending the people they represent, or generally attempting to live a normal life without being jumped on by the the woke mob.  F BLM guys.  It's that violent rhetoric to me, and you didn't hear anyone on the left defend them.  They were getting harassed. 

Gaslighting is the perfect for what Biden and the Fed was doing to Americans that were like, "Why am I paying $300 for groceries to feed 2 kids.  This issue has been developing since last April, and I expressed those concerns at the time.  Democrats seemed to believe they could bash Trump for two years without addressing any immediate issues and pending crises.  Classic Mistake. Everyone knows you don't aggressively attack the party out of power. 

Since the 2020 elections, everything that's happened under Biden were all predictable outcomes of his policies in the post-covid world.  There were D polls from AZ and WV that provided Biden a path to get a BBB deal done.  Why the F would you not build NG pipelines from WV to VA and NC?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden was nearing 50 percent Approvaks during the SOTU and Putin launched an undeclared war on Ukraine and the gas prices went up, Putin didn't launch the war be ause of Election Yr but it sure helps the Rs with Gas prices going to 8.00;@ gallon


As far as everything bad happening to Ds, we don't have the results yet can Rs hold their horses before they down the D's before the results are in, we Ds downed Trump because even after the shellacking in 2018 he still was under 50 even at Full Employment

But, Hollywood fails to realize Biden has the same exact Approvals as Trump, and Rs keep complaining, it takes one to know one because Trump never got above 50 percent even during his Honeymoon, Biden was at least 55 percent as soon as Trump got into office he was at 43 oercent