2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2022-NRCC-Offensive-Opportunities-Memo-.pdf

NRCC put out a memo listing their initial targets for 2022. A few weird choices, but at least CO-06 and VA-10 aren't on it.

Not bad moves by the NRCC. Their strategy is far better so far than 2018 / 2020

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/march-omnibus-political/

Generic Ballot (National)
Dem 46%
Rep 42%
3/15-3/21 by Echelon Insights
1008 RV

Is this the first generic ballot poll of the cycle?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html?utm_campaign=organic&utm_medium=socialshare&utm_source=twitter

On a flight Tuesday from Indianapolis to Fort Wayne, Ind., two leaders in the House Republican conference discussed a memo that argues that their party's future demands they "embrace our new coalition" because "President Trump's gift didn’t come with a receipt."

Why it matters: The document, titled "Cementing GOP as the Working Class Party," leaves no doubt that Republicans — at least in the House of Representatives — will be doubling down on Donald Trump for the foreseeable future.

This is actually a pretty strong roadmap. I would be very excited to see a GOP that truly does follow what is set out in this memo. I would like them to talk more about encouraging building strong (nuclear) families

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The House GOP's roadmap :

https://www.axios.com/house-gop-memo-trump-embrace-only-option-for-comeback-4cc95492-0c86-4fe5-b592-84ff12b7e5d0.html

Ah yes, embracing a complete failure who lost the House, the presidency, & then the Senate for the GOP is their only option for a comeback. It almost makes too much sense!!

I mean, Trump tried to cut health care and cut taxes. The House GOP memo is not advocating for either of those things. It's not a 100% pro Trump document, it's just saying Republicans should follow some of the things he did

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1393236468827672581

Link to the poll and its crosstabs?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Even if the Quinnipiac poll doesn't have a GOP bias, it's for sure nowhere near we'd like to see it. Dems must get better at messaging: Do they really want to have a party back in power that still embraces an orange buffoon who wanted to overturn American democracy and a party that is filled anti-intellectual, conspiracy loving hacks that have no real policy priorities to help average Americans? A party that has been absolutely ignorant when it comes to upholding basic norms and the rule of law?

I don't think any of these messages actually appeal to the average swing voter. You sound too stuck in the political game and out of touch with issues people care about 

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

Muh January 6th

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The American public is like the narrator from the song "Mamma Mia!" by ABBA. We've been cheated by the GOP for decades, so we vote them out. But then we vote them back in. When will we ever learn?

Narrator: When it's too late.

Trump did a better job than Biden so far. And I didn't vote for Trump in either 2016 or 2020.

And one of Biden's only good accomplishments - his infrastructure bill - got numerous GOP votes. The senate GOP allowed it to easily pass filibuster.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The American public is like the narrator from the song "Mamma Mia!" by ABBA. We've been cheated by the GOP for decades, so we vote them out. But then we vote them back in. When will we ever learn?

Narrator: When it's too late.

Trump did a better job than Biden so far. And I didn't vote for Trump in either 2016 or 2020.

It's easy to do a good job when you inherit pretty robust economic growth and decreasing unemployment from your predecessor and then still manage to have slower economic growth in your first 3 years after passing a massive tax cut that didn't make sense. All while you increased the national debt and are now trying to blame the Democrats for the money you put on the credit card.

But CRT!, WOKENESS!, DR SEUSS!, BIG BIRD!, ABORTION!, THE GAYS!, MASKS!, VACCINES!

That's ok. Your party is about to make it next to impossible for the Dems to win in the next few years so you all get to own any and all disasters that befall us. If history is any indication, they will happen because your party can't actually govern, just dole out tax cuts to the wealthy and then turn around and rack up more debt when corporations need a bailout. We've seen the both the movie and the sequel and it gets worse each time.

Can't wait for your your party to try to impeach Biden for whatever reason you decide will help your cause. It'll probably be Afghanistan or Hunter. Good luck!

You're screaming into the void. I don't support half of the things you describe, nor am I a partisan Republican. I am very clear what the democratic party should do to get back my vote in 2022. I voted for Hillary / Stacey Abrams / Joe Biden and currently plan on voting almost exclusively GOP in 2022.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The gender gap among Gen Z will likely converge a bit once they get married. Whether that will benefit dems or repubs remains to be seen.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The 2022 Midterm Election will be a FULL BLOWN Disaster for Democrats if they can't close the Enthusiasm Gap.
According to a new ABC/Ipsos Poll Republicans lead Democrats by a whopping 20-Percentage Point margin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-enthusiasm-problems-worsen-ahead-of-midterms-the-note/ar-AAW4ZJ6

Forget about all the GCB Polls who are showing a tight Race. The Enthusiasm matters most in Base Elections.

I expect Record Turnout in every Republican Primary for the next few months.

I mean it makes sense. Democrats have barely done anything, and the GOP's midterm strategy seems to just be boosting base turnout as much as humanly possible.

American politics: The feckless vs. the fascists. The feckless party doesn't fix the fascists' mess quickly enough, so they're voted out. Eventually they're voted in again after the fascists screw up once more. Only next time, we won't be able to get this country back.

The Democratic Party has made a mess of their own. National dems deserve what they are about to get in November if they keep gaslighting about inflation. While Trump deserves some blame for inflation, Biden has only made inflation worse with his actions.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I’m sure when the race first started I might’ve assumed Massachusetts voters would do what they’ve done for years - make the correct choice when it comes to the Kennedy’s.

However it was ME who - before a single poll showed Markey ahead said something to the effect of “I’m on the ground and this doesn’t look like a Kennedy win to me - Im sick to my stomach but I honestly think Markey is going to win this race from what I’ve seen”

I was wrong about Georgia in ‘20 most especially and Nevada in ‘18 but for the most part - I’ve been pretty spot on most races

I can't speak as to the accuracy of your predictions because I don't keep track of most, but I'd assume the reason most people are frustrated is that hyper-pessimism is exhausting and depressing. Our country's political crisis is unsettling enough without persistent catastrophizing.

Once you've made your perspective on polling known (that one party will over or underperform due to X, Y, or Z), it's just sort of dumping anxiety onto other people.

What is pessimistic, exhausting, and depressing about it? Around half the country will either be pleased with the result or neutral about it, if Forumlurker's prediction comes true.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Dems actually cared about winning they'd let guns go. This is the single most effective strategy with the lowest political cost and realistically it costs fewer lives than other potential switches.

The upside/downside for just deciding to let the gun control issue sit, and actively promoting that in messaging, is *way* slanted to upside.

The other good option would be to present and campaign on, nation wide, a more conservative Bernie Sanders 2016 style immigration policy.

Anyone who says the best strategy for them is to cut spending should be banned from politics websites for being politically illiterate.

The trouble with shifting right on guns or immigration is that for the time being and for likely a very long time into the future, the Republican party will continue to assert, even with zero supportive evidence, that the Dems are for gun grabbing and open boarders. And their base will eat it up. And that includes folks that if they actually believed the Dems were more conservative on these issues they'd be open for voting Democrat. But the whole culture of the right has enforced an intense social isolation and cult level of insulation to any outside information gaining traction. There is no point in moderating generally on these issues to win them over. And plenty of downside to reducing their own base for the Democrats as they once again abandon their own to appeal to the unpersuadable.

Mary Pelota supports gun rights and she won a House seat in Trump +10 Alaska and has numerous GOP endorsements...