2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

I trust Trafalgar Poll a lot. They nailed VA & NJ Governor Races! They had WI, MI, PA way tighter than other Polls in the 2020 Race.

NBC Exit Poll 2014 had Obama at 44 % JA Nationally / House Vote was 45,5 % Nationally that year for the Democrats.

NBC Exit Poll 2018 had Trump at 45 % JA Nationally / House Vote was 44,8 % Nationally that year for Republicans.

So YES, usually the President JA and the National House Vote tracking very close together.

Also, the new WSJ Poll seems ok too.

Lol, Trump held onto the Senate at 40/57 Approvals it's still a 303/ 235 map Rs don't want to admit that but Biden is at 47 percent  47/39 v Trump not ,39 percent like QU want them to be

Do you know how bad unemployment was in 2010 it was 11 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Biden winds up with the same Approvals as Obama it's not 11 percent unemployment that's why you have Crist leading and Dejear only 8 pts down, Trump won with 40/57 Approvals due to fact it was Full Employment, Rs never talk about Trump atrouseous approvals in 2018 and he still kept the S and they talk about OBAMA with 11 percent unemployment


I am changing my prediction back to a D Nut map if Trump can keep the S with 40/57 Approvals Biden can win the Trifecta at 47 percent Approvals now and it's nine mnths til EDay

Plse stop Preempt the vote let the votes count

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx


Since 2016 want to keep fishing out Obama Approvals in 11% unemployment and lost Congress here are the Trump atrocious approvals on Nov 4th in  Full employment in 2018 40/54 and he kept OH, IA FL and TX Gov and Senate, but since he was at 40/57 not 47/39 Trump lost the H, we will keep the Trifecta  Biden is already leading Trump 47/39 not the 39% Approvaks that Civiq or QU or Rassy points out

The Rs may have to win the Popular vote they haven't done since 2014 I'm order to beat Crist, Ryan Beasley there are still no polls in WI, PA, NC and OH

We already went thru this with Vaccinated Bear he never compared Trump but always compared Biden to Obama and Biden Approvals still aren't done it's March not October

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/MarkBednar/status/1504780085152423937
LMAO

[ElectionsGuy]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

[Unelectable Bystander]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

Tie generic ballot = R lead

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/MarkBednar/status/1504780085152423937
LMAO

Too amusing to be true. Oh wait, that’s the reality we live in now.

They’re actually going to double down on some of the most unappealing parts of their messaging, but at least it appeals to their Twitter base.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

Tie generic ballot = R lead

Bystander doesn't realize that Trump kept the Senate with 40/57 Approvals and Biden is leading Trump in a Prez Election 47/39

It's not over until the votes are casted not based on Approvals it's a 303/235 map Whitmer, SISOLAK, Evers and Shapiro have 50 PERCENT approvals, it's not Biden Approvals it's The D Approvals

[Minnesota Mike]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

Tie generic ballot = R lead

- As with all polls I throw this one on the pile. I don't give it extra weight/ignore because I  like/dislike the results.

- Polling errors work both ways. Just because the averages underestimated Republicans in 2020 does not mean they will in 2022.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/MarkBednar/status/1504780085152423937
LMAO

Thats it. I'm going to run for DNC chair in 2025 and fire all these people /s

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why  bother with these Approvals Biden was leading Trump 48/45 in Rassy in 20 daily tracking polls and right now Biden leads Trump 47/39 it's the same darn  map, but instead of D's blaming COVID on Trump RS are blaming COVID on Biden and Trp didn't wear a darn mask

You can put up 2010 47)47 Approvals to justify an R wave but Biden is Even in the polls if he is at 47/47 going in 2022 we are gonna win the blue wall not red wall states

Yes, the RS think they're advantage because of the Ukraine war but they're not it's just reaffirms the oil states v green energy states TX,  is am oil state, WI, CA are Green state

[Unelectable Bystander]

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

Ah, the old I don't like the results so they must be wrong arguement.

Ok, well have fun believing the generic ballot is a toss-up. I'll be laughing all the way until November.

A polling error similar to 2020 means right now is a political environment of around R+7, about where I would expect.

Tie generic ballot = R lead

- As with all polls I throw this one on the pile. I don't give it extra weight/ignore because I  like/dislike the results.

- Polling errors work both ways. Just because the averages underestimated Republicans in 2020 does not mean they will in 2022.

Did you not read what election guy posted? The generic ballot was comfortably D in November 2021. Based on actual election results in VA, NJ, and many city-wide elections, the national “environment” could have been no less severe than R +6. How does it make any sense that the obvious polling bias has reserved itself and become too R friendly in the last 4 months? Have major pollsters changed their methodologies?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MarkBednar/status/1504780085152423937
LMAO

Too amusing to be true. Oh wait, that’s the reality we live in now.

They’re actually going to double down on some of the most unappealing parts of their messaging, but at least it appeals to their Twitter base.

The Democrats seem to believe that Americans are actually going to care about this report, and they are clearly intent on using January 6 against the Republicans this fall. The article itself notes that many Democratic voters have lost interest in the report and are more concerned about issues such as inflation and the coronavirus pandemic. It would behoove Democrats to focus on the basic "bread and butter" issues, rather than re-litigating an event that-while a disgrace-did not have an impact on the vast majority of Americans and has already been forgotten or moved past by many of them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nate Silver said the Rs aren't dominating I'm the state by state polls compared to Biden Approvals on You tube and something is up with FL why is Crist doing EXCEEDINGLY WELL ABD GAETZ IS LOSING, SOMETHING IS UP AND BIDEN IS AT 40 PERCEBT IN QU polls but ahead of Trump 47/39

This is the samething happened to Biden when he ran as Veeo to Obama, ran in Primary and won 2020 Maricopa county Rs underestimating  Biden and Biden helped Obama win NC and IN in 2008

This is not your average 2010/2014 cycle and Crist is doing EXCEEDINGLY well with 11 percent unemployment and unpopular Obamacare that swept Rs to victory in 2010/14


D's have 15 Latino/15 Blk/20 percent non Evangelical females and young white men that gives D's 50 and 5 percent undecidef and 40 percent Evangelical particularly older white men that's a 303 map without the polls right there and it's gonna be a 135 M turnout not 110 M that's high turnout

The lion share of the vote lies with Blks and minorities and females

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Ds are screwed no matter what they do.  They cannot win this election.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ColtonLochhead/status/1504947897871187971

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ColtonLochhead/status/1504947897871187971

He lives in Mesquite (unless he's moved since he was elected to Congress), which is in the 4th. I guess he decided the 1st is less of an uphill climb?

[Minnesota Mike]

FOX News generic ballot poll: Rep 43 Dem 41.  (Q 13)

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/03/Fox_March-18-21-2022_National_Topline_March-23-Release.pdf

Last month was Rep 49 Dem 45. Interestingly support for both parties is down with undecided/other up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The issue that is dogging Biden even though these are April not Nov numbers is that there is still COVID he was supposed to end COVID and didn't


Biden found out it wasn't a US problem it's a Worldwide problem you have to end it with everyone not just in the US, abd he still let's illegals in thru the Border

[Unelectable Bystander]

The issue that is dogging Biden even though these are April not Nov numbers is that there is still COVID he was supposed to end COVID and didn't


Biden found out it wasn't a US problem it's a Worldwide problem you have to end it with everyone not just in the US, abd he still let's illegals in thru the Border

This isn’t really true, the poll has him above water on covid while getting hammered on everything else including economy, foreign policy, and border security. This actually dispels the fake idea that covid was the only thing keeping Dems from a 2002 style unity midterm. The only thing still hurting him regarding covid is the memory of the Omicron chaos leading to a general opinion of incompetence, but Dems are likely actually being helped in this poll by having given up on lockdown culture.

Something interesting is the American favorability towards confirming judges. The population seems to generally approve of confirmation regardless of who it is, and maybe wants to keep politics out of the process.

[jkmillion]

The actual issue is that the economy/inflation and foreign policy are becoming bigger issues while coronavirus is becoming a smaller issue. Biden's approval on both foreign policy and economy/inflation are significantly lower than COVID(-20.1 and -17 compared to +1). Due to this, if foreign policy and economy are talked about more, Biden's and the Democrat's numbers goes down.

This is why I am very pessimistic about 2022. The GDP forecasts just keeps getting downgraded and the inflation forecast just keeps on extending.(like, it went from ending in 2020 to not even ending by the end of 2023) The Fed is projecting 4.3% inflation for 2022 throughout 2022. That is a recipe for a Republican landslide.

Additionally, inflation/economy and foreign policy/national defense is a historically Republican favored issue which are R+8 and R+29 issues in a neutral environment. The Democrats talking more about those issues causes their numbers to go down on average just because people trust Republicans more than Democrats on those issues.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The actual issue is that the economy/inflation and foreign policy are becoming bigger issues while coronavirus is becoming a smaller issue. Biden's approval on both foreign policy and economy/inflation are significantly lower than COVID(-20.1 and -17 compared to +1). Due to this, if foreign policy and economy are talked about more, Biden's and the Democrat's numbers goes down.

This is why I am very pessimistic about 2022. The GDP forecasts just keeps getting downgraded and the inflation forecast just keeps on extending.(like, it went from ending in 2020 to not even ending by the end of 2023) The Fed is projecting 4.3% inflation for 2022 throughout 2022. That is a recipe for a Republican landslide.

Additionally, inflation/economy and foreign policy/national defense is a historically Republican favored issue which are R+8 and R+29 issues in a neutral environment. The Democrats talking more about those issues causes their numbers to go down on average just because people trust Republicans more than Democrats on those issues.

Did you know Trump netted seats twice in 2o18 40/54 in the S and netted H seats with 43/54 Approvals per Gallup because the vote total in 2020 was 75 M and it was only like 40 M votes D's had on 2010

So D's aren't gonna lose and we are gonna net Gov mansions in MA and MD that's not 43 Approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The issue that is dogging Biden even though these are April not Nov numbers is that there is still COVID he was supposed to end COVID and didn't


Biden found out it wasn't a US problem it's a Worldwide problem you have to end it with everyone not just in the US, abd he still let's illegals in thru the Border

This isn’t really true, the poll has him above water on covid while getting hammered on everything else including economy, foreign policy, and border security. This actually dispels the fake idea that covid was the only thing keeping Dems from a 2002 style unity midterm. The only thing still hurting him regarding covid is the memory of the Omicron chaos leading to a general opinion of incompetence, but Dems are likely actually being helped in this poll by having given up on lockdown culture.

Something interesting is the American favorability towards confirming judges. The population seems to generally approve of confirmation regardless of who it is, and maybe wants to keep politics out of the process.

Are you a moderator or  YE or pbower2A whom are experts in the Election no you aren't you are a user like me, your opinions aren't factual Trump netted H seats in 2020 at 43/54 Approvaks and we won the Cali recall with Biden low Approvals

Users trying to be moderators or Experts on the Election just because they make R Nut maps and Trump netted H seats per Gallup at 43)54 Approvaks