2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[MT Treasurer]

Special elections were not "incredibly indicative" in 2017/2018 — the dramatic Nov. 2016 -> 2017/2018 swings we saw in those special elections far exceeded the Nov. 2016 -> Nov. 2018 swings of that cycle.

[2016]

What Atlas/Talk Elections Democrats don't get: The House of Representatives was always Likely Republican even during the Dobbs Decision given that Republicans only needed six seats to win it.

Atlas/Talk Elections Democrats will of course never admit it but "You Blew essentially your House Majority in 2020 when you let Republicans flip 13 Seats".

Finally I want to point out Politico's House Forecast. They even had the House as Likely Republican during the Dobbs Decision so I give them heaps of credit by sticking to their guns while Democratic Trolls like Wasserman instantly said that the House might be in play.

What I personally don't like is this: Cook & Wasserman claim to be non-partisan YET in every Election Cycle they spent 90 % of their time on one particular Network: MSNBC. Don't claim to be Non-Partisan when you are not.

And I say the same thing that I said about Wasserman about Nate Silver. He claims 538 is Non-Partisan because he pulls the strings there and is a Democrat.

The only credible Political Handicapper is Amy Walter who I've seen on all Networks.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

138 House Republicans voted to nullify MY VOTE.

THROW IT OUT. DESTROY IT. TAKE AWAY MY RIGHTS.

THAT IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY BY ANY SANE MEASURE.

[bilaps]

House was never in play for Democrats. In this environment with this slim majority, always a zero chance of retaining the House.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

One must also consider though that the GOP has put forward no solutions to solving said cost of living issues.

A fair criticism.. but given there's currently a democratic trifecta, most of the blame is obviously going to be shifted in one direction.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

House was never in play for Democrats. In this environment with this slim majority, always a zero chance of retaining the House.

If this party wasn't run entirely by seventy and eighty year olds who the public sees as wildly out of touch there would have been at least a somewhat realistic chance.

[2016]

Gas prices went up over the past two weeks or so. They are now going down.

See you all in two weeks.

They are going down because Biden has released more oil from the Strategic Reserves. IMO that probably has the potential to be an impeachable offense to mending an Election.

And what's even more impeachable is begging OPEC+ not to cut oil production after the Midterms. That is a Quid Pro Pro IMO.

[2016]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

One must also consider though that the GOP has put forward no solutions to solving said cost of living issues.

SPENDING OURSELVES OUT OF INFLATION like Democrats are planning to do ain't the solution either.

[Gracile]

The only credible Political Handicapper is Amy Walter who I've seen on all Networks.

Amy Walter is the editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report (the publication you said you disliked earlier in your post), FWIW. I would hardly call her a great political handicapper since she wrote a whole article doubling down on Cook's decision not to rate Georgia as a likely pickup opportunity in 2020 (while also making errors about Georgia's electoral geography in said article).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Okay, I give up, we're doomed.

Give up on the House. Maybe a 5% chance Dems hold it the way things are going now.

Try to save the Senate, but honestly that's probably Tilt Republican by now.

Ditch Biden in 2024, the public has given up on him.

Maybe a slight overreaction..

I'm not sure why people expected this midterm to suddenly buck historical norms when Biden has negative approval...

2024 is a entirely different election given the strength of presidential incumbency.

He's done. If this party can't convince voters that democracy itself is more important than temporary swings in the price of gas then they are beyond useless.

Basic cost of living issues are always going to trump hyperbolic statements about democracy being in terminal decline, or whatever..

Most people don't care.

One must also consider though that the GOP has put forward no solutions to solving said cost of living issues.

SPENDING OURSELVES OUT OF INFLATION like Democrats are planning to do ain't the solution either.

IOW nobody has any idea what they're doing and anybody who thinks their "team" has the better answers is kidding themselves. 

Crossbenchers for the win once again!

[2016]

The only credible Political Handicapper is Amy Walter who I've seen on all Networks.

Amy Walter is the editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report (the publication you said you disliked earlier in your post), FWIW. I would hardly call her a great political handicapper since she wrote a whole article doubling down on Cook's decision not to rate Georgia as a likely pickup opportunity in 2020 (while also making errors about Georgia's electoral geography in said article).

But she doesn't spent 90 % of the time on MSNBC like Wasserman and then claimes to be non-partisan.

Anyone who spents time on MSNBC is a big "Red Flag" to me and that goes for both, Republican & Democratic leaning Political Analysts. MSNBC should be abolished as a Network because it is indeed the Democrats Party Propaganda Arm. We don't these unserious people like Joy Reid, Nicolle Wallace, Lawrence O'Donnell, Alex Wagner, etc.

[Eraserhead]

The House is probably gone at this point. The interesting battle continues to be for the Senate.

[politicallefty]

If Democrats lose the Senate, I will leave this forum for awhile. At that point, I really don't think there is much worth saving.

[EastwoodS]

If Democrats lose the Senate, I will leave this forum for awhile. At that point, I really don't think there is much worth saving.

Haha lmao

[politicallefty]

If Democrats lose the Senate, I will leave this forum for awhile. At that point, I really don't think there is much worth saving.

Haha lmao

Yeah, funny, haha.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when everyone on here clowned me for calling this a 2014 redux back in September?

[BenjiG98]

Remember when everyone on here clowned me for calling this a 2014 redux back in September?

You are still a clown because the election hasn't happened yet and we won't know how it will turn out until we get results. Polling is not reliable as we've seen.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when everyone on here clowned me for calling this a 2014 redux back in September?

You are still a clown because the election hasn't happened yet and we won't know how it will turn out until we get results. Polling is not reliable as we've seen.

If I’m a clown, you must be a trapeze artist with all the mental gymnastics you are going through to justify your increasingly delusional takes.

Rs will have 52 seats in the senate and at least 240 house seats and you still will be insisting that Alaska isn’t 100% in yet.

[Devils30]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

[It’s so Joever]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

Awww change your mind after you insistence Ds would sweep for weeks? Well at least you have come to reason now.

[2016]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

After Biden won the 2020 Election I made a point on numerous occasions here that Biden won because 50 % of his Voters came from the "I hate Trump" fraction. That is not a winning coalition to win Elections especially when Trump ain't on the ballot.

[Devils30]

The coalitions are suited for a natural GOP senate majority, a very tight House and a GOP electoral college edge. Things can change but the 2020s Dem coalition is just ill suited to winning close elections. Of course if a 2025 GOP passes a national abortion ban well get a D+11 2026 election but they might be savvy enough to keep it with the states.

Even the Monmouth poll was only R+13 with whites. The Dems were just winning minorities by only 16. The numbers could be off a bit but this is far more than simply a white backlash like 1994 and 2010.

Awww change your mind after you insistence Ds would sweep for weeks? Well at least you have come to reason now.

I didn’t insist the Ds would sweep. I thought in late august the House with a 220 or so seat Dem majority and a 51-49 D senate was possible. The latter still is considering these poor GOP candidates in GA AZ PA along with a possible NV polling miss could help Ds.

Monmouth at only 31% college degree also seems quite low. Midterms are usually in the high 30s there. That said, I don’t see how you conclude the House odds are stronger than 10% for Ds.

[BenjiG98]

Remember when everyone on here clowned me for calling this a 2014 redux back in September?

You are still a clown because the election hasn't happened yet and we won't know how it will turn out until we get results. Polling is not reliable as we've seen.

If I’m a clown, you must be a trapeze artist with all the mental gymnastics you are going through to justify your increasingly delusional takes.

Rs will have 52 seats in the senate and at least 240 house seats and you still will be insisting that Alaska isn’t 100% in yet.

Got a screenshot. We'll see, but polls are all over the place and I think we're in unpredictable territory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Where are the Doomers now that Monmouth has it R plus 5 and Kotek is leading Caltrina said Drazen was a shoe in, just like MT Treasure thought LePage and Poliquin we're gonna win

[Devils30]

Remember when everyone on here clowned me for calling this a 2014 redux back in September?

You are still a clown because the election hasn't happened yet and we won't know how it will turn out until we get results. Polling is not reliable as we've seen.

If I’m a clown, you must be a trapeze artist with all the mental gymnastics you are going through to justify your increasingly delusional takes.

Rs will have 52 seats in the senate and at least 240 house seats and you still will be insisting that Alaska isn’t 100% in yet.

Got a screenshot. We'll see, but polls are all over the place and I think we're in unpredictable territory.

The hilarious part is Alaska is probably going to be among the Dems brightest spots.