2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1582729920303988737

It will probably fall in 2026

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1582774090238418946

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1582729920303988737

It will probably fall in 2026

You are assuming Trump or DeSantis win in 2024?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1582774090238418946

I've seen a few pundits moving WA-SEN from safe to likely (or whatever).

Did something happen that I missed?

[Ferguson97]

I don't remember there being such a wide range of results in GCB polling in 2018 or 2020. We're seeing anything from D+4 to R+6. Those are extremely different results!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1582769511505068033

For all users thinking about Approvals it's 41/34 D how is that NY Times 49/45R sample going

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1582729920303988737

It will probably fall in 2026

You are assuming Trump or DeSantis win in 2024?

My assumptions at this time (based on the derivate of the events:
Democrats will keep collapsing this year and lose 2 seats and 20 House seats.
There will be a recession, but it will be over by 2024, but it will be a modest recovery and Biden will be 82.
Republicans probably narrowly win the popular vote and get it 57 in the senate and 240 in the house.
With the economy stabilizing, all eyes will be on private accounts for social security, replacing the exchanges/Medicaid with a health insurance monopoly, federal abortion bans, and maybe a relitigation of gay marriage and perhaps peripheral Civil Rights legislation.
There will be a significant backlash and Democrats will probably do very well in 2026.

[Unelectable Bystander]

It should be noted that Cohn’s likely voter assumption in the last poll was actually slightly higher than the extremely high Echelon model. So, while differing from RV, it is still assuming very high turnout.

[wbrocks67]

I don't remember there being such a wide range of results in GCB polling in 2018 or 2020. We're seeing anything from D+4 to R+6. Those are extremely different results!

The only polls that have hit that high are Trafalgar, Harris, and Rasmussen, though. Most of the GOP leads have typically been R+1-3 if they are found.

[wbrocks67]

That Ipsos poll has literally gone back and forth for weeks now, I kid you not. It oscillates between D+4 and D+1 every other week.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1582789678582755331?t=AW0ujboM04_U5rQH...

From D+2 in their last poll.

[soundchaser]

FWIW, that’s an improvement for Dems from the last YouGov LV poll, although it’s probably statistical noise.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

FWIW, that’s an improvement for Dems from the last YouGov LV poll, although it’s probably statistical noise.

It's not.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580188929298685955?t=mCe6cSlUHwOcsq0J...

The CBS poll is separate from their usual releases.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, that’s an improvement for Dems from the last YouGov LV poll, although it’s probably statistical noise.

Not from last week's YouGov/Economist tracker, which was D+2 among LV (48/46).  Don't compare these to YouGov polls for CBS or Yahoo -- the sponsors have input into the design, and make different choices.

But yeah, it could just be sampling variation.  Biden's approval also dropped a few points from last week's Economist poll.

[soundchaser]

Ah, whoops -- thanks for the correction. For some reason, I thought LV was only used in the CBS poll. My mistake!

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the RV i believe is more or less the same as last week (D+1) but the LV model moved from D+2 to R+1 this week.

They give a really nice glimpse in their poll of who exactly is a "likely voter" - I wish all pollsters did this. It's essentially whoever says they have already voted, "definitely voting" or "Probably voting".

In terms of demographic groups, this is who they deem a LV:

Men - 59% yes, 41% no
Female - 63% yes, 37% no
Whites - 67% yes, 33% no
Black - 51% yes, 49% no
Hispanic - 46% yes, 54% no

18-29 - 29% yes, 71% no
30-44 - 47% yes, 53% no
45-64 - 72% yes, 28% no
65+ - 91% yes, 9% no

2020 Biden voters - 87% yes, 13% no
2020 Trump voters - 89% yes, 11% no

Democrats - 66% yes, 34% no
Republicans - 76% yes, 24% no

So LV model shifted because it thinks there is a Democratic collapse in turnout compared to Republicans, mostly seemingly because it does not expect 18-29 year olds to be a likely voter.

[wbrocks67]

As for how it breaks down to “I have already voted”, “Definitely will vote”, and “Probably will vote” totals

Males: 64%
Females: 69%

Whites: 72%
Blacks: 56%
Hispanics: 56%

18-29: 42%
30-44: 51%
45-64: 75%
65+: 92%

2020 Biden voters: 88%
2020 Trump voters: 90%

Democrats: 74%
Republicans: 79%

So again, this is why GOP has an advantage in LV model this week - their intention to vote is larger for those 3 categories. Democrats have a rather large "Maybe will vote" (8%) compared to Republicans (3%)

[wbrocks67]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

[Devils30]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

The 538 GCB is the same it was on the night Pat Ryan won NY-19, D+0.3

[Ferguson97]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

I think a lot of people set their expectations too high or misunderstood what a neutral environment might look like. A lot of people were acting like we're in a 2012/2018 style environment, but the people who think we've reverted to a 2010/1994 style environment are also wrong.

It's a 2016/2020 style environment. That means Republicans win the House, probably not more than 20-25 seats. Democrats likely keep the Senate, but they could still lose it if a lot of races are close.

[wbrocks67]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

I think a lot of people set their expectations too high or misunderstood what a neutral environment might look like. A lot of people were acting like we're in a 2012/2018 style environment, but the people who think we've reverted to a 2010/1994 style environment are also wrong.

It's a 2016/2020 style environment. That means Republicans win the House, probably not more than 20-25 seats. Democrats likely keep the Senate, but they could still lose it if a lot of races are close.

A 2016/2020 style environment would average out to like D+1 though, (which is where the average is pointing us), and that would mean a probably pretty close House result, wouldn't it? (I feel like Ds need to win by 2 to have a chance)

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs steady,

D+4 among RV (49-45) and D+3 among LV (49-46)

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[GeorgiaModerate]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

I think a lot of people set their expectations too high or misunderstood what a neutral environment might look like. A lot of people were acting like we're in a 2012/2018 style environment, but the people who think we've reverted to a 2010/1994 style environment are also wrong.

It's a 2016/2020 style environment. That means Republicans win the House, probably not more than 20-25 seats. Democrats likely keep the Senate, but they could still lose it if a lot of races are close.

A 2016/2020 style environment would average out to like D+1 though, (which is where the average is pointing us), and that would mean a probably pretty close House result, wouldn't it? (I feel like Ds need to win by 2 to have a chance)

Somewhere between D+2 and D+3 is the likely break-even point.  If it gets in that vicinity, it depends on which districts each party overperforms in.

[wbrocks67]

DailyKos/Civiqs poll:

How likely are you to vote in the general election this November?
Democrats: 92% (definitely will vote/already voted)
Republicans: 92% (definitely will vote/already voted)

Including “probably” will vote pushes Democrats to 97%, Republicans to 96%

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_monthly_banner_book_2022_10_3n84fh.pdf

Some polls show this to be equal, some have Dems slightly ahead, others have Reps slightly ahead. I almost wonder if it's just how it's worded or the particular sample.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

I think a lot of people set their expectations too high or misunderstood what a neutral environment might look like. A lot of people were acting like we're in a 2012/2018 style environment, but the people who think we've reverted to a 2010/1994 style environment are also wrong.

It's a 2016/2020 style environment. That means Republicans win the House, probably not more than 20-25 seats. Democrats likely keep the Senate, but they could still lose it if a lot of races are close.

A 2016/2020 style environment would average out to like D+1 though, (which is where the average is pointing us), and that would mean a probably pretty close House result, wouldn't it? (I feel like Ds need to win by 2 to have a chance)

Somewhere between D+2 and D+3 is the likely break-even point.  If it gets in that vicinity, it depends on which districts each party overperforms in.

Yeah on 2020 Pres the median district VA-02 which is Biden +2.1, and 538 has the median seat with a PVI around R+2.3 iiirc.

The only case where this wouldn't be true is if Dems experience the largest turnout dropoff in safe D cities like NY and CA hence wasting far fewer votes in those districts.