PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Oz talking about New Jersey again.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1587258519862091778

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1587411731948732416

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1587826653375479810?s=46&t=sTDo_YQ...

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1587826653375479810?s=46&t=sTDo_YQ...

3% is actually...not low in a vacuum...but that's assuming that respondents are actually being truthful about this. Generally one can easily argue that most/all of those people were already voting Oz/R-leaning undecideds who were going to come home to him regardless. But if even 20% of that number genuinely had a change in their position it could make a difference in this kind of race.

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see him working the youth vote. He was in Philly at Temple on Saturday and then Penn State tonight-

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1587946155048112128

[Continential]

Glad to see him working the youth vote. He was in Philly at Temple on Saturday and then Penn State tonight-

This is shameful.

[BG-NY]

Tossup->Lean R

[US Politics Fanatic]

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1587979072516378626
If this holds true, I was right about Fetterman massively underperforming in the Philly suburbs among "country club" republicans Romney Biden voters types.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup->Lean R

.

Fetterman is leading 48/42

[MillennialModerate]

Glad to see him working the youth vote. He was in Philly at Temple on Saturday and then Penn State tonight-

This is shameful.

??

[Continential]

Glad to see him working the youth vote. He was in Philly at Temple on Saturday and then Penn State tonight-

This is shameful.

??

Penn State is scum.

[jd7171]

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1587979072516378626
If this holds true, I was right about Fetterman massively underperforming in the Philly suburbs among "country club" republicans Romney Biden voters types.

I felt the same thing was possible. With it being close, there had to be a reverse effect.

[jd7171]

Glad to see him working the youth vote. He was in Philly at Temple on Saturday and then Penn State tonight-

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1587946155048112128

Good to see, he needs every vote in Dem leaning areas.

[MillennialModerate]

While my hopes for the overall midterms were all but extinguished, knowing that for sure the House and Senate were gone. I was starting to think Fetterman still had a shot until Emerson came out

[GeorgiaModerate]

While my hopes for the overall midterms were all but extinguished, knowing that for sure the House and Senate were gone. I was starting to think Fetterman still had a shot until Emerson came out

You base this on one poll that's within the margin of error?  Take a statistics course.

[Hindsight was 2020]

While my hopes for the overall midterms were all but extinguished, knowing that for sure the House and Senate were gone. I was starting to think Fetterman still had a shot until Emerson came out

If Fetterman wins this needs to be your sig for the rest of the year

[South Dakota Democrat]

While my hopes for the overall midterms were all but extinguished, knowing that for sure the House and Senate were gone. I was starting to think Fetterman still had a shot until Emerson came out

You base this on one poll that's within the margin of error?  Take a statistics course.

He would fail the course.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

While my hopes for the overall midterms were all but extinguished, knowing that for sure the House and Senate were gone. I was starting to think Fetterman still had a shot until Emerson came out

You base this on one poll that's within the margin of error?  Take a statistics course.

He could see 10 polls with Fetterman up 8 and still find a way to justify why he's going to lose.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This is going to be a close race either way, but Fetterman has a lot going against him with the overall mood shifting back to the Republicans. I have a feeling the Republicans may end up doing better than we expect with inflation raging on, savings dwindling, and the stock market crashing.

None of that is Biden's fault, but he's the President, so voters will blame him.

[MillennialModerate]

While my hopes for the overall midterms were all but extinguished, knowing that for sure the House and Senate were gone. I was starting to think Fetterman still had a shot until Emerson came out

If Fetterman wins this needs to be your sig for the rest of the year

Deal

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is going to be a close race either way, but Fetterman has a lot going against him with the overall mood shifting back to the Republicans. I have a feeling the Republicans may end up doing better than we expect with inflation raging on, savings dwindling, and the stock market crashing.

None of that is Biden's fault, but he's the President, so voters will blame him.

Excuse me?  The Dow gained 14% in October -- its best month since January 1976!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This is going to be a close race either way, but Fetterman has a lot going against him with the overall mood shifting back to the Republicans. I have a feeling the Republicans may end up doing better than we expect with inflation raging on, savings dwindling, and the stock market crashing.

None of that is Biden's fault, but he's the President, so voters will blame him.

Excuse me?  The Dow gained 14% in October -- its best month since January 1976!

Zoom out a little bit on the S&P 500

Or worse, the Nasdaq. It has been a very bad year for my portfolio.

[Gass3268]

Does Mastriano want Oz to lose?

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1588193460061982720?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1586752127803719683?s=20&t=xRbS4F5btldC...

[Eraserhead]

Wow, FF Mastriano. Thank you!

[Pollster]

One of my younger colleagues today pointed out to me that "candidates from western Pennsylvania always overperform their polls" - I didn't take a hard look but just based on 2022 polls in both party's primaries it does appear to have some footing to it. Posting here incase somebody else wants to do a more in-depth look - happy to give observations as I can if somebody compiles.