PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

Quite frankly, saving the environment is not a moderate, or conservative, or liberal issue. Had we done Cap-and-Trade 10 years ago, then maybe we wouldn't need the Green New Deal, but your party blocked it and now we need something very ambitious like the GND to save the planet. This isn't a matter of right or left, it's a matter of doing what's right.

I'm so old I remember when cap and trade was the conservative, market based alternative.

[Meatball Ron]

We talk a lot about the terrible GOP bench in Pennsylvania, which is mostly fair - other than Fitzpatrick, the current Reps. all represent deep red districts and haven't been tested in a competitive environment, and the former Rep has-beens like Costello seem too moderate to make it out of a primary. But do we think Stacy Garrity (newly elected Treasurer) and Timothy DeFoor (newly elected Auditor) could be formidable statewide candidates in the future (maybe not '22 since they just took office). Haven't heard much buzz about them regardless - is it because their wins last year (particularly Garrity's) are seen as flukes / unexpected, and therefore don't really speak to their electoral strength?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

We talk a lot about the terrible GOP bench in Pennsylvania, which is mostly fair - other than Fitzpatrick, the current Reps. all represent deep red districts and haven't been tested in a competitive environment, and the former Rep has-beens like Costello seem too moderate to make it out of a primary. But do we think Stacy Garrity (newly elected Treasurer) and Timothy DeFoor (newly elected Auditor) could be formidable statewide candidates in the future (maybe not '22 since they just took office). Haven't heard much buzz about them regardless - is it because their wins last year (particularly Garrity's) are seen as flukes / unexpected, and therefore don't really speak to their electoral strength?

Both could be strong statewide candidates down the road for sure, especially Garrity. I could see one or both taking a shot at the Senate race in 24. Not sure about their ambitions, but especially with 24 being a Presidential election year, it may be a good opportunity to take a shot at Casey.

[wbrocks67]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

[wbrocks67]

We talk a lot about the terrible GOP bench in Pennsylvania, which is mostly fair - other than Fitzpatrick, the current Reps. all represent deep red districts and haven't been tested in a competitive environment, and the former Rep has-beens like Costello seem too moderate to make it out of a primary. But do we think Stacy Garrity (newly elected Treasurer) and Timothy DeFoor (newly elected Auditor) could be formidable statewide candidates in the future (maybe not '22 since they just took office). Haven't heard much buzz about them regardless - is it because their wins last year (particularly Garrity's) are seen as flukes / unexpected, and therefore don't really speak to their electoral strength?

Both could be strong statewide candidates down the road for sure, especially Garrity. I could see one or both taking a shot at the Senate race in 24. Not sure about their ambitions, but especially with 24 being a Presidential election year, it may be a good opportunity to take a shot at Casey.

I'm still mind boggled at how Garrity even won. When I looked at her social media, she seemed like a Trump quack and I had never even heard of her or seen any ads. Torsella was not as strong as expected, but she was a really weak challenger. At least with Nina Ahmad, there were other factors at play.

It's like Shapiro race - Shapiro won because he's a strong candidate, but also Heather Heidelbaugh was just a terrible candidate as well.

However, there was also a strong 3rd party vote, strangely enough, in all 3 non-prez races, which I still don't understand either.

[Sir Mohamed]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

Actually expected Fetterman's nomination as shoe-in. That said, I still expect him the win the Dem primary with strong support from Gov. Wolf. GE is a pure tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction is that it'll be Fitzpatrick vs. Fetterman, with polls showing a slight Fetterman advantage. Fitzpatrick will then win by 5 points.

[If my soul was made of stone]

My prediction is that it'll be Fitzpatrick vs. Fetterman, with polls showing a slight Fetterman advantage. Fitzpatrick will then win by 5 points.

Fitz would be a formidable opponent, but he isn't getting past a statewide GOP primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have had no polling from most of these races except the Amy Acton poll, D's if you really want donations why don't you poll the WI Senate race which is much more winnable than OH


Along with Rand Paul silly comment about Minimum wage and wages aren't keeping up with Housing cost, most Are Americans will stay in school, Johnson made a similar comment about Liberal v Conservative rioters and it was Right and KKK that killed CR leadees


PA, WI need to be polled, why didn't they poll the OH Gov race, they know DeWine and Rubio will win

[brucejoel99]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

Actually expected Fetterman's nomination as shoe-in. That said, I still expect him the win the Dem primary with strong support from Gov. Wolf. GE is a pure tossup.

Is Wolf even endorsing?

[Sir Mohamed]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

Actually expected Fetterman's nomination as shoe-in. That said, I still expect him the win the Dem primary with strong support from Gov. Wolf. GE is a pure tossup.

Is Wolf even endorsing?

I assume he will do so before the primary. Still a long time to go. But he and Fetterman seem to have a good relationship.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

Actually expected Fetterman's nomination as shoe-in. That said, I still expect him the win the Dem primary with strong support from Gov. Wolf. GE is a pure tossup.

Is Wolf even endorsing?

Likely not, but the two are inextricably linked. Even if Wolf doesn't publicly endorse anyone, no other candidate in the race will be as close to Wolf as Fetterman is. And he almost certainly won't say a bad word about Fetterman either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman is the Fav, due to fact all these candidates are gonna split Philly

[wbrocks67]

I was clearly wrong about the PA-01 race, but I still don't see Fitz as a strong statewide candidate. His schtick may work in PA-01 (for a number of reasons, including his last name and his apparently weak challengers each time), but not sure that it would work as well for the entire state.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Pretty nice troll job from Kenyatta here:

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1377214316269682691?s=20

[brucejoel99]

Pretty nice troll job from Kenyatta here:

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1377214316269682691?s=20

Oof, that's gotta sting.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1377477228615753735

good news for dems. this splits some more vote away from the kenyatta who would be a mess if nominated.

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea why some of these people are running. Sharif Street and Arkoosh to a lesser extent have no name rec and no chance.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I have no idea why some of these people are running. Sharif Street and Arkoosh to a lesser extent have no name rec and no chance.

Street is at least high profile enough (pretty sure he's Vice Chair of the PA Dems) to mount a darkhorse candidacy where he tries to soak up as much support in Philly as possible. Arkoosh...no idea. Maybe because there are no other high profile women running. I doubt Wild, Houlahan, or Dean ultimately get in but Arkoosh does not have the name rec to win solely off of the fact that she's a woman. If any of those Congresswomen get in, she's toast.

I'm curious to see how Lamb's entrance would split the vote. We already know that Street and Kenyatta are going to split the Philly vote, but if Fetterman and Lamb split the Pittsburgh vote, then all bets are off and anyone could win. I think that probably favors someone like Fetterman who has made it his goal to rack up as much support in the in-between counties as possible, but who knows.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ByChrisBrennan/status/1377602739778289664
Fetterman Get's an Endorsment.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/ByChrisBrennan/status/1377602739778289664
Fetterman Get's an Endorsment.

Wow, that's...bizarre.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Arkoosh really only has a chance if no other women join in. That way, she can consolidate the entire Montco vote at least, and into the other Philly suburbs.

In order of them jumping in though - the likelihood of it, I'd say Houlahan > Dean > Wild. Though I honestly don't think Dean will jump in, she'll have a safe seat regardless. Houlahan is likely safe too, but she definitely always struck me as someone who would be great statewide. Dean is my congresswoman but I worry about her statewide. She's pretty liberal, and she should've worked harder at the last race.

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1377606821448462341

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What Republicans are running?

[Roll Roons]

What Republicans are running?

No major ones have announced yet, but Ryan Costello and Guy Reschenthaler are both rumored.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

What Republicans are running?

No major ones have announced yet, but Ryan Costello and Guy Reschenthaler are both rumored.

When that's your list of "major" candidates...yeesh.