PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.

Heard the same about Toomey twelve years ago from a D-PA poster, look how that turned out.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

I said open seat for a reason. Please read more carefully next time and don't accuse rs of taking this for granted when a bunch of d posters are already measuring the drapes bc of their super sexy special awesome "all star" bench.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

I said open seat for a reason. Please read more carefully next time and don't accuse rs of taking this for granted when a bunch of d posters are already measuring the drapes bc of their super sexy special awesome "all star" bench.

That's why I said disingenuous instead of wrong. You are correct that open seats have tended to go to the party not in the White House, but everything's true until it's not; until 2014 you wouldn't have needed to add the open caveat. Perhaps Ds are being overconfident, but that doesn't mean that any point made against Democrats is automatically a good one.

I am restoring balance to the discussion after innumerable  declarative proclamations of D victory in PA based on crappy analysis itself. You look past all that and take issue with what I said but not the likes of Kanye/OC. Corbett being a crappy Governor and getting his clocked cleaned is not illustrative of anything that would help the Democrats in 2022. Rendell, Ridge and Casey Sr did a good job and were popular, Corbett tried to implement the Koch bros agenda and was a terrible salesmen for it in a state that isn't suited to that kind of Politics.

2014-2015 saw Philly suburbs reallign down ballot as  millennials have aged into becoming more reliable voters voting straight ticket D in place of their ticket splitting parents. That this happened before D strength in select places in the rest of the state did likewise for the Republicans in 2016 and 2020, and also expedited by Corbett's unpopularity is partially why Corbett lost and Ds picked up the Supreme Court in 2015.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Glad to see this election has already turned into a dumpster fire, the rest of this year much less next is going to fun to watch.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Costello by the way is some loser on twitter now who interacts with 25 follower dudes on how he is actually a strong candidate.

Yea a guy that resided in a gerrymandered seat without much competition only to turn tail from his first difficult race doesn't speak much to candidate quality.

Gerlach was a far more compelling case considering how many times he survived 51-49 in a Kerry seat in back to back bad elections. Costello is just a joke by comparison.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

"At least one" credible Republican is considering jumping in to stop Parnell.

I'm thinking someone like Smucker or Meuser who hasn't worked to antagonize Trump.

Its kind of like in 2010 when a bunch of b and c tier candidates were running against Blanche Lincoln then with the healthcare mess, her numbers tanked and suddenly they were leading her, then Boozman jumped in.

Of course since Trump already picked, they run the risk of instantly get "not Trump friendzoned" if they jump in now.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Made this up quickly in Paint using the CNN map. The demographic divides and regionalism really showed up in this primary like few others in recent times.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Easy to say Lamb would beat Oz when he hasn't faced negative press since the primary.

One grows weary of the "x Dem candidate would be unbeatable" on this forum.

So many of them turn out to have a scandal, get washed out in a wave or just don't match the hype they received.

At the end of the day this is 50-50 state in a Democratic midterm for a Federal office and we live in a polarized society. If it weren't for Oz's weaknesses, the Democrats would be in a much worse position then they are right now in PA Senate.

This isn't 2006 or 2008 anymore. And after 15 years of hearing the same lines about "suburbs gonna make it even more Dem" and "growing part of the state, versus shrinking part of the state", it gets rather old. In fairness, many of the younger posters both from and not from PA probably weren't around to see the longer term backdrop of this analysis, and thus the perspective to be somewhat dubious about it.

The math for the GOP runs through PA, unlike before and that alone means it gets a lot more money and lot more prioritization and the GOP is a better fit for a larger proportion of the state than it was back then. I don't even think Fetterman's health would have much changed the trajectory and if it does end up being decisive, its only because it counter acted for Oz's weaknesses.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Going forwards, I think people need to try to consider the ways both parties could see gains and collapses, and that "shifts" and "trends" do not inevitably favor one side till the end of time.

Most of these analysis expected all other factors to remain constant. In a polarized environment, there is always some group of people that is going to be alienated by the governing party and thus cause the 50-50 states to flip one way or the other on that basis. But barring a major break in the polarization or a shift to a different issues set, the geography doesn't change much, especially in the low growth states.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If McCormick was the nominee Fetterman would have likely just spammed Connecticut banker instead of NJ celebrity.

There were much stronger candidates who didn't run. The fact that in an state with 9 Republican congressmen, you end up with a previously failed candidate who implodes, followed by a TV doctor and a hedge fund manager tells you all you need to know about this cycle.

A lot of that is Trump's fault, or more specifically the fear of not getting his endorsement and being destroyed long term.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What is this GOP strategist talking about. "Haven't had chance to elect a Senator there?"

Republicans have held this Senate seat since 1968, excluding Specter's last 20 months in office.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Fetterman just melted on the stage with the fracking question, specifically his previous position conflicting with his current one.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Oz talked about preventative care to avoid even greater cost. Like the sentiment, wish there was more beef and specifics though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Oz just took the populist line against student loan forgiveness, great approach.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

On cost of higher education
Fetterman: Just make it affordable
Oz: Cut the extra staff and offer more online options.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wtf?

Never seen that before

Fetterman screams something during Oz’s closing statement

Mediscare, or in this case social security, is so early 2010s.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden endorses Lamb, assuming he endorses anyone in the primary.

Biden said the Lamb reminds him of his son Beau, which he also said about Buttigieg.

While he is more moderate than Fetterman or Kenyatta, he wouldn't be another Manchin or Sinema. He'd be more like a Booker, Klobuchar, or Gillibrand.

Biden will likely stay out of the race. Now Casey? His endorsement will be crucial if he decides to.

As for Lamb, the issue I see for him is his stance on energy. His support for natural gas could cost him in Chesco/Delco where there have been numerous problems with the Mariner East pipeline. Fetterman has flip-flopped on it since he won the Lt. Governor race in '18, rather disappointing imo.

Nostraslimeus is here all week children

The best thing Biden could've done is appoint Fetterman to some cabinet position in early 2021 clearing the field for Lamb. If Fetterman loses there's going to be a lot of finger pointing of what higher ups did and didn't do to prevent this.

I don't think Lamb would necessarily win in this environment either.