PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[NYDem]

How many times do I have to say that this doesn't matter electorally? Strong Lean R, Parnell wins by 3-5 points.

You can say it as many times as you want, but don't expect it to have any effect on people's opinions lol.

[NYDem]

The Dog Story has been shuffling around the internet for awhile now. I'm surprised the media hasn't picked up on it until now.

This could be the Hunter Biden of this cycle. Oz torturing animals and Walker having abortions….and the Media gives them the BotD.

Except unlike Hunter Biden, this is directly relevant to the actual candidates running. The abortion story is particularly relevant this year, and seems particularly damning with particularly strong evidence.

Is it almost safe to say that Oz and Walker are doomed at this point? This is the impression I'm getting from some here. These stories certainly are horrible, and just further confirm that Republicans botched so many of these races this year.

I’d call both Lean D for now and see how badly these stories blow up over the next few days. Ultimately GA and PA are tossup states in what should be a Republican year. I see both staying Democrat in spite of that, but its hard to tell what scandals are going to sink a campaign and which ones are going to fade without the benefit of hindsight.

[NYDem]

The Dog Story has been shuffling around the internet for awhile now. I'm surprised the media hasn't picked up on it until now.

This could be the Hunter Biden of this cycle. Oz torturing animals and Walker having abortions….and the Media gives them the BotD.

Except unlike Hunter Biden, this is directly relevant to the actual candidates running. The abortion story is particularly relevant this year, and seems particularly damning with particularly strong evidence.

Is it almost safe to say that Oz and Walker are doomed at this point? This is the impression I'm getting from some here. These stories certainly are horrible, and just further confirm that Republicans botched so many of these races this year.

I’d call both Lean D for now and see how badly these stories blow up over the next few days. Ultimately GA and PA are tossup states in what should be a Republican year. I see both staying Democrat in spite of that, but its hard to tell what scandals are going to sink a campaign and which ones are going to fade without the benefit of hindsight.

Oz probably still has a chance of emerging through this latest controversy, especially since it is something which has been circulating out there for some time now. But it's hard for me to see how Walker recovers from this kind of allegation. He is such a flawed candidate and has so many personal problems.

I think the Walker scandals are more damaging too, but he’s been strangely resilient in the polling before this point. Fetterman’s had at least a 4 point lead in every poll while Walker has outright led in some. Warnock has less of a buffer (if polling is to be believed).

[NYDem]

Scientific experimentation on animals for medical advancement for humans is entirely justified. This is such a weak line of attack.

The first sentence is arguably true. The second is not. "Dr. Oz kills puppies" is a pretty effective line of attack. People in this country love dogs a lot, and what Dr. Oz did is going to play badly even if medical testing is justifiable. The specific things mentioned go into abuse beyond "just" testing. Real sick stuff.

[NYDem]

When the center loses a primary, the centrists throw a six-month temper tantrum about how their candidate was the better candidate and how bland centrism would have won. They undermine the Democratic nominee, they call for the overturning of the primary, and they do everything they can to weaken the progressive. Sometimes, they even run a spoiler campaign!

Do you have to give this overdramatic speech every time a single Atlas user says that Lamb might have done better? EJ24's post was silly, but the vast majority of "the centrists" are still completely behind Fetterman. This is his worst poll in ages and he's still up 2 and has 86% support from the party. If he does lose (which I neither want nor expect to happen!), it won't be because centrists abandoned him.

[NYDem]

When the center loses a primary, the centrists throw a six-month temper tantrum about how their candidate was the better candidate and how bland centrism would have won. They undermine the Democratic nominee, they call for the overturning of the primary, and they do everything they can to weaken the progressive. Sometimes, they even run a spoiler campaign!

Do you have to give this overdramatic speech every time a single Atlas user says that Lamb might have done better? EJ24's post was silly, but the vast majority of "the centrists" are still completely behind Fetterman. This is his worst poll in ages and he's still up 2 and has 86% support from the party. If he does lose (which I neither want nor expect to happen!), it won't be because centrists abandoned him.

I'll stop giving it when the Lamb simps take their L like adults and stop undermining Fetterman.  From India Walton to Elizabeth Fiedler to Kara Eastman to Fetterman, this happens commonly offline as it does online. It's not a matter of opinion - it's an open attempt to sow disunity and undermine a progressive's campaign. I don't say this to be "overdramatic" or "hyperbolic". I say it because it's true.

But then again I don't expect this type of maturity from the one user who rushes to cheer on every personal attack levied against a progressive.

I'm going to assume the maturity jab was directed at EJ24, because I'm genuinely not sure what you'd be referring to if you meant me. I hardly comment on intraparty spats much.

I'm not going to deny that a few centrists do the things you say, but it seems silly to deride all centrists and act like there's some big centrist vs. progressive divide in this race just because EJ24 made a stupid comment. I don't think he's representative of any significant group of Lamb dead enders. Are there any mainstream Democrats who aren't giving Fetterman their total support and endorsement in this race? Given Fetterman's current polling he's got the vast majority of Democrats, both centrist and progressive behind him. Heck, given his landslide victory in the primary I'd imagine that he carried self-identified moderates back then too. Party unity has been pretty strong in this race.

[NYDem]

Nothing will ever beat the 2020 Iowa Caucus voter whose first choice was Pete Buttigieg because she wanted universal healthcare, and who was going to vote for Trump if anyone else was the nominee.

[NYDem]

The usual caveats about non-Presidential debates apply, but this is clearly bad for Fetterman. I'm worried that the stroke is going to sink him here. It goes without saying that this isn't a personal failing and nothing could be done about it, it's just sh**tty circumstance. Effectively random chance. I hope that Oz falters down the stretch due to his overwhelming unlikability and that Fetterman can put this debate behind him.

[NYDem]

The abortion line was pretty stupid in a state like Pennsylvania. Obviously Roe isn't going to be the only issue in the election, but saying abortion should be "between a woman, her doctor, and local political leaders" is very stupid. That line would be cringeworthy in Kansas, let alone PA. Got to imagine that gem ends up in some late ads.

[NYDem]

The abortion line was pretty stupid in a state like Pennsylvania. Obviously Roe isn't going to be the only issue in the election, but saying abortion should be "between a woman, her doctor, and local political leaders" is very stupid. Got to imagine that gem ends up in some late ads.

Ultimately that will determine who “won” the debate. Who can make the most ads from it. There’s enough material for the Fetterman campaign for the next 13 days.

Exactly. Unless I'm badly mistaken, basically nobody watches non-Presidential debates live. They are mostly important as a mine for opposition ads in the event of a candidate ing up. Plenty of material after today. I don't think anyone will deny that Oz won the debate, but he may not have done enough to actually win this race given his own issues.

[NYDem]

Breaking News: Independent write-in candidate Everett Stern has dropped out and endorsed the Democratic ticket!
https://www.twitter.com/EverettStern1/status/1584976258693492736
This could literally swing dozens of votes!

[NYDem]

Did we ever get jimmie's astrological analysis on this one?

[NYDem]

Pennsylvania just loves making election day a sh*tshow every year.

Thank god for your northern neighbor taking the heat off. Oneida county (my dad's hometown) using sticky notes to keep track of which ballots were good and bad and then the sticky notes fell off, never forget

We can only hope that NY-22 will deliver as much excitement as it did last cycle.