Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

STATE SENATE FUNDRAISING UPDATE 10/17/23

District 16
Siobhan Dunnavant (R) Raised: $1,259,177 COH: $493,052
Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) Raised: $785,233 COH $408,385

District 17
Emily Brewer (R) Raised: $579,757 COH: $149,770
Clint Jenkins (D) Raised: $189,384 COH: $46,344

District 22
Kevin Adams (R) Raised: $226,360 COH: $56,315
Aaron Rouse (D) Raised: $291,742 COH: $284,902

District 24
Danny Diggs (R) Raised: $725,666 COH: $285,041
Monty Mason (D) Raised: $1,233,585 COH: $225,988

District 27
Tara Durant (R) Raised: $361,356 COH: $99,874
Monica Gary (I) Raised: $28,155 COH: $4,936
Joel Griffin (D) Raised: $642,661 COH: $46,757

District 30
Danica Roem (D) Raised: $315,265 COH: $153,742
Bill Woolf (R) Raised: $383,827 COH: $151,322

District 31
Russet Perry (D) Raised: $1,624,983 COH: $461,967
Juan Pablo Segura (R) Raised: $1,075,450 COH: $26,354

Fascinating numbers.  Fundraising may or may not indicate any insider information about the districts, but it can be suggestive.  This would seem to confirm that Dems are giving up on SD-17, and that R's don't see SD-30 or SD-22 as serious targets to flip.  The heavy investment in SD-24 and SD-27, which are both clearly right of the median seat suggests an overall Dem-leaning map in the state senate.  Dem donors appear particularly optimistic about SD-24, where the Dem is ahead 2:1 in fundraising.

But the really interesting thing is that R's seem to be giving up on SD-31 (look at Segura's CoH), but continuing to invest heavily in SD-16!  This fits with an outer Loudoun HoD seat that was basically tied between Biden and Trump now being treated as competitive (which would lead you to expect a Biden +13 seat in the same area would come off the competitive map).  However, one caveat is that SD-16 has an R incumbent and SD-24 has a D incumbent, which could help explain the fundraising advantages there.

Update: HoD fundraising dynamic looks quite different, with big spending in a number of districts expected to be left of median.  HD-21 in outer NOVA, where the R was secretly recorded supporting a total abortion ban, has the 4th highest fundraising out of the 100 seats in the chamber, with a significant lead for the R.  They clearly haven't given up on him. 

HD-65, which was rated clearly left of median, has the 3rd highest fundraising in the chamber.  The Republican leads in fundraising in HD-97, the expected median district.  Other than the aforementioned seat in outer Loudoun, HD-30, none of the Dem reach seats are getting much attention, while some of the R reach seats are, like HD-84 (very Biden topline, but extremely liberal candidate who just moved to the district).     

To me this looks like Republicans almost conceding the state senate, but making a full court press to hold the HoD.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714291837903810788

[Young Conservative]

But the really interesting thing is that R's seem to be giving up on SD-31 (look at Segura's CoH), but continuing to invest heavily in SD-16!  This fits with an outer Loudoun HoD seat that was basically tied between Biden and Trump now being treated as competitive (which would lead you to expect a Biden +13 seat in the same area would come off the competitive map).  However, one caveat is that SD-16 has an R incumbent and SD-24 has a D incumbent, which could help explain the fundraising advantages there.

Segura has low COH because his PAC is spending big and because he is self funding, so he can just write himself another check. No need to keep money in the bank when it's yours and its limitless. R's def not conceding this, just recognizing that with Segura self funding, they can put their money in other districts.

[Skill and Chance]

But the really interesting thing is that R's seem to be giving up on SD-31 (look at Segura's CoH), but continuing to invest heavily in SD-16!  This fits with an outer Loudoun HoD seat that was basically tied between Biden and Trump now being treated as competitive (which would lead you to expect a Biden +13 seat in the same area would come off the competitive map).  However, one caveat is that SD-16 has an R incumbent and SD-24 has a D incumbent, which could help explain the fundraising advantages there.

Segura has low COH because his PAC is spending big and because he is self funding, so he can just write himself another check. No need to keep money in the bank when it's yours and its limitless. R's def not conceding this, just recognizing that with Segura self funding, they can put their money in other districts.

OK, that mitigates it and helps explain the apparent prioritization of SD-16.  However, the late 6 figure investment by both parties in Biden +0.2 HD-30 when almost all of the action in the rest of the state is in double digit Biden seats still makes me think something is up.   That district is almost entirely within Biden +13.1 SD-31.  Wendy Gooditis surprisingly (relative to presidential numbers) held a seat in this area on the old map in 2021.

[Skill and Chance]

Yet another D+1 generic ballot poll!

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2023-10-17.html

This one is completely non-partisan.  Note lots of undecideds.  The issue polling after the generic ballot question looks pretty great for Dems on the surface.  Their position is leading on everything polled.

R' almost surely need a PV lead to flip the state senate.  D's probably need a PV lead to flip the HoD, but that's less certain.  The expected outcome might even be a 50/50 tie.

[Person Man]

Yet another D+1 generic ballot poll!

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2023-10-17.html

This one is completely non-partisan.  Note lots of undecideds.  The issue polling after the generic ballot question looks pretty great for Dems on the surface.  Their position is leading on everything polled.

R' almost surely need a PV lead to flip the state senate.  D's probably need a PV lead to flip the HoD, but that's less certain.  The expected outcome might even be a 50/50 tie.

Even a 15 week ban here in unpopular. Have no idea how Republicans win or even don’t lose. If this race is really this nationalized, the only way Republicans sweep is if they are, at least right now, going to carry it in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714291837903810788

They also just did a breakdown of this by district.  For competitive seats, it's consistently NOVA more Dem than expected and Hampton Roads less Dem than expected, Richmond about in line with expectations.  Hints of an inefficient PV for Republicans with mountain district turnout way higher than inner NOVA turnout.

Notably, SD-31 and SD-16 both come in very Dem.  However, they have R's doing even better in SD-24 than in SD-17, which everyone has as Lean R.  SD-27 looks more Dem than either of those 2 despite the weaker Biden #'s.

For the HoD, pretty much all of the conventionally competitive districts look more R than the decisive state senate seats, with the weird exception of HD-82 near Petersburg which has massive Dem lead, and, speaking of weaker Biden #'s, they have projected a better Dem performance in the early vote in Biden+0.2 HD-30 than any of the other competitive seats.

[wbrocks67]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

[Skill and Chance]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

As of now, turnout is systematically higher in Safe R districts than in Safe D districts and the inner NOVA safe seats have the lowest turnout in the state.  Do note that several NOVA counties open additional early voting sites starting next week.  Rural counties generally have only one early voting location throughout, usually at the county seat.  In Fairfax, which currently has very low turnout, only 3 locations are currently open for a county of over 1 million people, but 13 additional locations open next week.

[wbrocks67]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

As of now, turnout is systematically higher in Safe R districts than in Safe D districts and the inner NOVA safe seats have the lowest turnout in the state.  Do note that several NOVA counties open additional early voting sites starting next week.  Rural counties generally have only one early voting location throughout, usually at the county seat.  In Fairfax, which currently has very low turnout, only 3 locations are currently open for a county of over 1 million people, but 13 additional locations open next week.

Thank you for this context; some on ET and those pushing certain agendas have seemingly left out this information that seems pretty crucial.

[Person Man]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

As of now, turnout is systematically higher in Safe R districts than in Safe D districts and the inner NOVA safe seats have the lowest turnout in the state.  Do note that several NOVA counties open additional early voting sites starting next week.  Rural counties generally have only one early voting location throughout, usually at the county seat.  In Fairfax, which currently has very low turnout, only 3 locations are currently open for a county of over 1 million people, but 13 additional locations open next week.

In Henrico, I only saw two EV locations as open when I voted. One on the west-end of town and one way out on the east end of town. I live at the far west end. It was only there that I realized that I live in Willet's House District, not the one with the revenge porn.

[Skill and Chance]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

As of now, turnout is systematically higher in Safe R districts than in Safe D districts and the inner NOVA safe seats have the lowest turnout in the state.  Do note that several NOVA counties open additional early voting sites starting next week.  Rural counties generally have only one early voting location throughout, usually at the county seat.  In Fairfax, which currently has very low turnout, only 3 locations are currently open for a county of over 1 million people, but 13 additional locations open next week.

Thank you for this context; some on ET and those pushing certain agendas have seemingly left out this information that seems pretty crucial.

FWIW we do have to be very careful making assumptions from EV turnout.  I recall this very same "NOVA is lagging" discussion last year and Dems ended up doing fine, particularly in the that part of the state.  Going back to 2021, it looked like rural turnout was lagging dramatically during EV, particularly in the mountains, but Republicans won everything anyway.

[Duke of York]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

Its also important to remember some of the seats are unopposed. That could be a factor as well.

[Person Man]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

As of now, turnout is systematically higher in Safe R districts than in Safe D districts and the inner NOVA safe seats have the lowest turnout in the state.  Do note that several NOVA counties open additional early voting sites starting next week.  Rural counties generally have only one early voting location throughout, usually at the county seat.  In Fairfax, which currently has very low turnout, only 3 locations are currently open for a county of over 1 million people, but 13 additional locations open next week.

Thank you for this context; some on ET and those pushing certain agendas have seemingly left out this information that seems pretty crucial.

FWIW we do have to be very careful making assumptions from EV turnout.  I recall this very same "NOVA is lagging" discussion last year and Dems ended up doing fine, particularly in the that part of the state.  Going back to 2021, it looked like rural turnout was lagging dramatically during EV, particularly in the mountains, but Republicans won everything anyway.

Things are probably where we think they are. It's close. There's probably a lot of undecideds, and they control the outcomes between R holding all their seats and letting Sears control the senate to the Democrats winning the house and gaining in the senate.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1714651063570284978

[wbrocks67]

Pretty stunning that Dems are now outspending Rs, given Youngkin's insane fundraising.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1714661627704799660

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1715031637602251237

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty stunning that Dems are now outspending Rs, given Youngkin's insane fundraising.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1714661627704799660

Interesting list.  Would not have expected to see SD-16 leading the pack in spending this late.  Suggests R optimism?  On the other hand, you could argue D optimism based on all the spending SD-24 and SD-27?  The 1st three HoD seats on the list are widely seen as 1 seat right of median, median, and 1 seat left of median, in that order.  So no surprises there. 

This would seem to confirm R optimism about SD-17 and D optimism about HD-21 (wealthy outer PWC suburbs seat where the R was recorded endorsing an abortion ban from conception).

Also interesting to note the level of D spending in HD-58, a Biden +16 district that overlaps with SD-16 (also Biden +16) and wasn't expected to be anywhere close to the median.   Do both parties foresee an R overperformance specifically near Richmond?  It's been the most overperforming D area in recent times, so that would be surprising!

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1715031637602251237

Would it be fair to guess this is about 10%ish of total turnout?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1715031637602251237

Would it be fair to guess this is about 10%ish of total turnout?

No one knows.  This is the first "off-year midterm" cycle VA has ever had with no-excuse early voting.

FWIW 2022 was ~32% EV and 2021 was ~36% EV, so about 1/3rd of the total vote being cast early (including both in-person and mail-ins) seems reasonable.  2020 was 63% EV, but that was clearly a one-time thing for COVID.  Maybe it drops to ~30% because of some lingering COVID impact on 2022 or maybe it goes up toward 40% because of the increasing R effort to promote EV?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just like New Jersey, this data is useless without knowing what districts the votes are coming in from. (And like New Jersey would probably be useless anyway.)

[wbrocks67]

Just like New Jersey, this data is useless without knowing what districts the votes are coming in from. (And like New Jersey would probably be useless anyway.)

That L2 account has posted a number of different districts specific results if you look through their feed

[Skill and Chance]

Also in-person EV turnout is now clearly lower than an equivalent time in 2021 or 2022.  Mail is down less than in-person, so a higher proportion of EV is mail in so far this year.

Low turnout would likely favor R's south of Richmond and D's everywhere else.

[wbrocks67]

I'm kind of surprised at this take, given how bearish he has been on Dems in the past.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1715002493887819934

[Skill and Chance]

I'm kind of surprised at this take, given how bearish he has been on Dems in the past.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1715002493887819934

He's been shifting a bunch of stuff toward Dems recently.  I agree with him that low turnout is a net boost for Dems in NOVA, but I think he's underrating the R opportunity this creates in Southside/Hampton Roads.