Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20

lol

THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE WHEN THE YOUNGKIN ACTUALLY SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH WHITE VOTERS AND DID BETTER WITH MINORITIES!!

That being said, I want to see the full demographics.

Do keep in mind that, with Black voters in particular (which is who I assume Booker is referring to), over/underperformance by Republicans is typically driven by turnout differentials rather than vote changing.

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20

lol

THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE WHEN THE YOUNGKIN ACTUALLY SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH WHITE VOTERS AND DID BETTER WITH MINORITIES!!

That being said, I want to see the full demographics.

Do keep in mind that, with Black voters in particular (which is who I assume Booker is referring to), over/underperformance by Republicans is typically driven by turnout differentials rather than vote changing.

That's why I said, I need to see the full demographics.

Is there a split between Black voters and Hispanic/Asian voters ?

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20

lol

Was the campaign not entirely about a race based curriculum that is not even being taught in K-12 schools? You keep saying CRT is being taught, but do not present one iota of evidence that it is being taught.

[Skill and Chance]

EDIT: This was likely incorrect, it looks like the judicial nominees will have to pass both the GOP majority HoD and the Dem majority State Senate separately

[BigSerg]

You have to pay attention to Winsome Sears, I think she has a very promising future in national politics (I would have preferred her over Yougkin)

https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1455761251737509898?s=20

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Exit polls of course should be taken with a massive grain of salt (especially the Edison Research ones), but they show Youngkin doing 15 points better than Trump with White Evangelical voters. Democrats' heavy focus on abortion/right to choose likely contributed to this.

Such a shift would easily and clearly explain Youngkin overperforming Trump's SWVA margins, and is a strong sign - especially in such a high turnout election - that Republican margins in rural America (especially in the deep south/great plains) are not yet maxed out.

The rural margins in the deep south are maxed out. They are consistently 70-85% R in the exurban and rural counties in most southern states from South Carolina to TX. The only real exceptions are heavily black rural areas. The evangelicals that swung back R are suburban evangelicals which are a huge block of voters in southern suburbs, especially in GA in TX. In GA, Democrats can at least take solace in the fact that a lot of the gains were thanks to the mobilization of African Americans who are at no risk of swinging GOP. TX Democrats however should be terrified of this result. If this continues, I don't see Abbott winning by less than 13 points and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up over 15.

Deleted this post shortly after posting it because the numbers were a bit messed up. Regardless, definitely need more research into suburban evangelicals - their population numbers are waning quickly, many are moving further south/towards the coast for retirement, and any reversion among them politically is not going to be sustainable. Certainly no reason to rule out further GOP gains among rurals.

There will definitely be GOP gains among rurals, but most of those gains will come from rust belt where there is still a modicum of rural Democratic strength. The Democratic Party is already dead and buried in the rural south, unfortunately. Whites here in many counties are as monolithically Republican as blacks are Democratic. I feel like a huge anomaly among those around me. I'm a local Democrat even to this day. But in national elections, I'm firmly a swing voter.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20

lol

Commentators who push this narrative are both lazy and likely racist themselves.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20
lol

Was the campaign not entirely about a race based curriculum that is not even being taught in K-12 schools? You keep saying CRT is being taught, but do not present one iota of evidence that it is being taught.

I don't understand this. If it's a non-issue and Democrats don't support it (as they shouldn't), Democratic candidates should be nipping this in the bud immediately by condemning CRT and pointing out that it isn't and will not be a part of school curriculum (making the R opponent look like a slanderous moron). Instead, many Dems are being defensive about it and just re-affirming voters' fears. Proudly denounce it instead of throwing around a bunch of useless jargon and insulting your voters' intelligence. I swear Democrats have ZERO sense of gut instinct and how humanity works.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Exit polls of course should be taken with a massive grain of salt (especially the Edison Research ones), but they show Youngkin doing 15 points better than Trump with White Evangelical voters. Democrats' heavy focus on abortion/right to choose likely contributed to this.

Such a shift would easily and clearly explain Youngkin overperforming Trump's SWVA margins, and is a strong sign - especially in such a high turnout election - that Republican margins in rural America (especially in the deep south/great plains) are not yet maxed out.

The rural margins in the deep south are maxed out. They are consistently 70-85% R in the exurban and rural counties in most southern states from South Carolina to TX. The only real exceptions are heavily black rural areas. The evangelicals that swung back R are suburban evangelicals which are a huge block of voters in southern suburbs, especially in GA in TX. In GA, Democrats can at least take solace in the fact that a lot of the gains were thanks to the mobilization of African Americans who are at no risk of swinging GOP. TX Democrats however should be terrified of this result. If this continues, I don't see Abbott winning by less than 13 points and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up over 15.

I’ve said it before many times, but this is wrong. Every time someone says that Republicans are “maxed out” in white rurals, they’re wrong. There’s no reason those counties can’t vote 80-90% R in theory.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455913438618820611?s=20

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1455712865063776261?s=20
lol

THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE WHEN THE YOUNGKIN ACTUALLY SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH WHITE VOTERS AND DID BETTER WITH MINORITIES!!

That being said, I want to see the full demographics.

Do keep in mind that, with Black voters in particular (which is who I assume Booker is referring to), over/underperformance by Republicans is typically driven by turnout differentials rather than vote changing.

That's why I said, I need to see the full demographics.

Is there a split between Black voters and Hispanic/Asian voters ?

There always has been. Real question is if it got bigger or smaller, and if there was any difference between Latinos and Asians this time.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455915253305335815

Whoa!

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455915253305335815

Whoa!

My guess is that 47% of voters were going to vote for McAuliffe no matter what and 43% were going to vote for Youngkin no matter what. That said, that means that Youngkin won people on the fence 3:1.

[Thunder98]

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

[Chips]

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

Oh wow! Yeah those parallels do seem to be lining up quite nicely...

[UncleSam]

What happened with the HoD? I thought Dems were on track to split power last night, but now I’m reading Rs won 52 seats?? What changed overnight

[Chips]

What happened with the HoD? I thought Dems were on track to split power last night, but now I’m reading Rs won 52 seats?? What changed overnight

In one of them, the Republican simply surged ahead at the last minute. In the other, A polling error was fixed allowing the Republican to win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

I thought that Youngkin would win by 1.39%, so he outperformed my expectations for him by almost a point. Good on Youngkin, now it's time to shift this energy to 2022, 2023, and maybe 2024.

[Del Tachi]

Some of my disparate observations, analysis and other Monday-morning QB'ing:

1.  McAuliffe's strategy of running against "Trumpkin" was a bad bet.  Turns out voters aren't really animated by attacks on an ex-President.  Youngkin gained everywhere because he was the only candidate talking about the issues, McAuliffe was talking past voters trying to bring-up Trump at every possible moment.

2.  Independent of  McAuliffe's strategy, he is probably just a weak candidate in general.  Ultimate Beltway insider and has-been governor is not a compelling biography compared to the younger, outsider Youngkin. 

3.  Alternatively, Glenn Youngkin is pretty much the type of Republican nominee you would create in a lab.  Not having to run in and win a GOP primary was definitely a net positive for Youngkin in this race.     

4.  The polls were pretty accurate.  My worry that polls were herding towards Youngkin in the closing stretch doesn't appear to have materialized.  Then again, Virginia is a pretty easy state to poll (i.e., relatively few non-college Whites.)   

5.  The biggest loser of last night may very well be Donald Trump.  Republicans are looking over the results today and seeing a way to run and win while keeping Trump at arms' length.  GOP primary voters motivated by an "electability" criterion look to have a valid prototype in Glenn Youngkin, and I expect this angle will be the dominant one in conservative media going into next year. 

I'll leave it to the Democrat hacks on this site to hash out what the results ultimately mean about the battles being fought in their own party.  Regardless, I only see these results hardening Manchinema and AOC types alike on their BBB positions. 

[Wormless Gourd]

It is almost 1pm the day after election night and Ciattarelli is still up by the smallest margin imaginable. Unless there's more revisions to the EV/VBM he's going to lose to Murphy, but imagine had this been a hair closer, in New Jersey of all places.

[LAB-LIB]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.

It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

It's going to be a more Republican year, but on the other hand, in 2017, Murphy was seen a rich guy with no substance. NJ was hit hard, but Murphy has been popular throughout the pandemic, though his approvals have dropped from their highs in the spring of 2020. He'll probably underperform Biden's 2020 numbers, but 4-5 points seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

"Oh waiter, one order of crow!"

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Honest to go I am blaming this loss on it being a no bones day

[Person Man]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

1) wait until voters come around, 2) somehow find the next Obama, 3) try to get someone like Sinema to win back the suburbs,4) try to get someone like Tulsi Gabbard or Tim Ryan to win the Gore+Kerry+Ohio+Colorado map.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455937051178721281

Applies to this blog as well.