Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Pollster]

We did a very preliminary dial test of the "he'll do all of the things we want a governor to do" audio and not only did it activate Democratic voters, but did genuinely astonishing damage to Youngkin's support among independents (possibly exacerbated by the state having a large population of government-adjacent voters).

Potentially a huge gift that Trump just handed to the VA Dems at the most opportune time for them, I'm fully expecting to hear it all over television in the next week.

[LimoLiberal]

We did a very preliminary dial test of the "he'll do all of the things we want a governor to do" audio and not only did it activate Democratic voters, but did genuinely astonishing damage to Youngkin's support among independents (possibly exacerbated by the state having a large population of government-adjacent voters).

Potentially a huge gift that Trump just handed to the VA Dems at the most opportune time for them, I'm fully expecting to hear it all over television in the next week.

I think it's useful to look at the recall in California here. No doubt a Biden +10 state has different circumstances than Biden+29, but look at how successful the Democrats were in activating college-educated suburban whites by tying Elder to Trump. If there are turnout problems in NoVA, this is the way to go for the McAuliffe campaign, however cringy it may appear to us to constantly frame the race around an ex-President.

This New York Times article says much of the same:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/15/us/politics/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-race.html

In interviews outside Fairfax’s early-voting site, every McAuliffe voter cited Mr. Trump as a reason for supporting the Democrat. Transportation, education and taxes — longtime core issues of Virginia governor’s races — were scarcely mentioned.

Paul Erickson, an architect from Vienna, Va., summoned a reporter back after revealing his concerns about Mr. Trump and said in an urgent tone that he had more to share.

“What I didn’t say is, for the first time in my adult life I fear for our nation,” Mr. Erickson said. “We’re tearing ourselves apart from within.”

Others were less expansive but equally to the point.

“I don’t like Trump, and I believe Youngkin is equal to Trump,” said Carol Myers, a retiree who, with her husband, was voting before playing a round of golf at the Army Navy Country Club in Arlington.

[Matty]

Question: will the counting on election night resemble typical VA r bias, or will the mail voting alter the pattern?

[Skill and Chance]

Question: will the counting on election night resemble typical VA r bias, or will the mail voting alter the pattern?

In 2020, the R bias got even worse.  It looked like Trump could plausibly win VA until very late despite the double digit Biden win in the end.  Also, if it's within a % or so, they won't be able to call it until the weekend after due to the new postmarked-by-election-day mail ballot rule. 

[NewYorkExpress]

The Libre Initiative, a Koch backed Latino Advocacy Group, has endorsed Youngkin for Governor

The Libre Initiative on Friday endorsed Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin, who is competing to become the southern state's first GOP governor since 2014.

Youngkin is in a dead heat against former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) in a race that could set the tone for the 2022 midterms.

The Libre Initiative, part of mega-donor Charles Koch's political network, is an advocacy group that promotes free-market ideas among U.S. Hispanics.


Libre's endorsement of Youngkin is aimed at turning out Virginia's Latinos, who comprise 5.5 percent of the state's eligible voters.

“Like many Latinos in Virginia Glenn Youngkin is a businessman, entrepreneur, and family man. He understands the consequences of misguided policies driving up prices in all facets of our lives," said Daniel Garza, president of The Libre Initiative.

"Youngkin is the right choice for Latinos in Virginia because he is committed to breaking down barriers to affordable health care, educational options and economic opportunities, so all families in Virginia can thrive,” Garza added.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1448047388426375168

[Progressive Pessimist]

We did a very preliminary dial test of the "he'll do all of the things we want a governor to do" audio and not only did it activate Democratic voters, but did genuinely astonishing damage to Youngkin's support among independents (possibly exacerbated by the state having a large population of government-adjacent voters).

Potentially a huge gift that Trump just handed to the VA Dems at the most opportune time for them, I'm fully expecting to hear it all over television in the next week.

It's funny. For all the talk of this race being nationalized, that hasn't really happened from what I've been seeing...until now. That Trump audio plus the pledging allegiance to the "peaceful rally" flag rally are certainly nationalizing the race now. I don't know if we should say that a fork should necessarily be stuck in Youngkin's campaign because of all this (though that likely was true from the second he started running as a Republican) but it is a very painful headache that he is going to have to deal with in the final stretches of the campaign and as early voting is ramping up-possibly the worst timing imaginable.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1449042998579372032

[wbrocks67]

Yeah McDonald makes no sense. Both of those early vote tweets clearly show that Dems are outvoting Reps about 2:1 in the EV. One is just the total amount and the other is the Total TURNOUT %.

[wbrocks67]

Pundit media still trying to make T-Mac's "parents shouldn't get involved in what teachers teach" somehow a gaffe.

Still not sure how that was a gaffe since again, most rational people, Dem OR Rep, would agree that parents need to generally butt out and let teachers teach.

Also, of course, despite Youngkin making a gaffe by allowing Trump to do that call in rally this week, the main focus here is a weeks old quote from T-Mac.

The "liberal media" at it again. They want this race to be close so badly.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1449359793437782019

[Alben Barkley]

Pundit media still trying to make T-Mac's "parents shouldn't get involved in what teachers teach" somehow a gaffe.

Still not sure how that was a gaffe since again, most rational people, Dem OR Rep, would agree that parents need to generally butt out and let teachers teach.

Also, of course, despite Youngkin making a gaffe by allowing Trump to do that call in rally this week, the main focus here is a weeks old quote from T-Mac.

The "liberal media" at it again. They want this race to be close so badly.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1449359793437782019

You would think so, but both my anecdotal experience and the polls say that's not the case. Unless you're going to be very strict about what counts as a "rational" person I guess, but some otherwise not entirely stupid people at least do seem to think this these days. All part of there being more and more helicopter parents who want to butt in to every part of their kids' lives these days I guess, and can't stand the idea of someone else influencing them or god forbid the kids think for themselves and develop independently of their parents.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pundit media still trying to make T-Mac's "parents shouldn't get involved in what teachers teach" somehow a gaffe.

Still not sure how that was a gaffe since again, most rational people, Dem OR Rep, would agree that parents need to generally butt out and let teachers teach.

Also, of course, despite Youngkin making a gaffe by allowing Trump to do that call in rally this week, the main focus here is a weeks old quote from T-Mac.

The "liberal media" at it again. They want this race to be close so badly.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1449359793437782019

You would think so, but both my anecdotal experience and the polls say that's not the case. Unless you're going to be very strict about what counts as a "rational" person I guess, but some otherwise not entirely stupid people at least do seem to think this these days. All part of there being more and more helicopter parents who want to butt in to every part of their kids' lives these days I guess, and can't stand the idea of someone else influencing them or god forbid the kids think for themselves and develop independently of their parents.

My mom is a teacher and she would definitely disagree with you guys. She thinks parents should be more involved in their kids education

[wbrocks67]

Pundit media still trying to make T-Mac's "parents shouldn't get involved in what teachers teach" somehow a gaffe.

Still not sure how that was a gaffe since again, most rational people, Dem OR Rep, would agree that parents need to generally butt out and let teachers teach.

Also, of course, despite Youngkin making a gaffe by allowing Trump to do that call in rally this week, the main focus here is a weeks old quote from T-Mac.

The "liberal media" at it again. They want this race to be close so badly.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1449359793437782019

You would think so, but both my anecdotal experience and the polls say that's not the case. Unless you're going to be very strict about what counts as a "rational" person I guess, but some otherwise not entirely stupid people at least do seem to think this these days. All part of there being more and more helicopter parents who want to butt in to every part of their kids' lives these days I guess, and can't stand the idea of someone else influencing them or god forbid the kids think for themselves and develop independently of their parents.

My mom is a teacher and she would definitely disagree with you guys. She thinks parents should be more involved in their kids education

This is where there is nuance to what Terry said, and this whole argument. There is a difference between parents being involved in their kids education, and what they do at school, and then the other side, which is parents wanting books banned and literally telling teachers what to teach and what they shouldn't be teaching (and the whole CRT debate).

What I'm saying is most people would agree with the first point. The debate is about the ~25% of parents who are the crazy ones who are going to school board meetings and telling teachers they shouldn't be teaching X, Y, and Z, and that they are 'indoctrinating' children.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pundit media still trying to make T-Mac's "parents shouldn't get involved in what teachers teach" somehow a gaffe.

Still not sure how that was a gaffe since again, most rational people, Dem OR Rep, would agree that parents need to generally butt out and let teachers teach.

Also, of course, despite Youngkin making a gaffe by allowing Trump to do that call in rally this week, the main focus here is a weeks old quote from T-Mac.

The "liberal media" at it again. They want this race to be close so badly.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1449359793437782019

You would think so, but both my anecdotal experience and the polls say that's not the case. Unless you're going to be very strict about what counts as a "rational" person I guess, but some otherwise not entirely stupid people at least do seem to think this these days. All part of there being more and more helicopter parents who want to butt in to every part of their kids' lives these days I guess, and can't stand the idea of someone else influencing them or god forbid the kids think for themselves and develop independently of their parents.

My mom is a teacher and she would definitely disagree with you guys. She thinks parents should be more involved in their kids education

This is where there is nuance to what Terry said, and this whole argument. There is a difference between parents being involved in their kids education, and what they do at school, and then the other side, which is parents wanting books banned and literally telling teachers what to teach and what they shouldn't be teaching (and the whole CRT debate).

What I'm saying is most people would agree with the first point. The debate is about the ~25% of parents who are the crazy ones who are going to school board meetings and telling teachers they shouldn't be teaching X, Y, and Z, and that they are 'indoctrinating' children.

Then the state should ban teaching things like the 1619 project

[ElectionsGuy]

I knew this forum was full of upper-class white college kids who don't have families but damn I was not expecting Terry's anti-parental involvement quote to be spun into a positive.

[wbrocks67]

I knew this forum was full of upper-class white college kids who don't have families but damn I was not expecting Terry's anti-parental involvement quote to be spun into a positive.

The issue is that it's being taken to mean something that it doesn't. Again, most parents would agree with not being so involved with school as *telling* teachers *what to teach*. Being involved with your child's education is completely different than what is happening now with some of these parents who are trying to tell teachers what to do day in and day out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I knew this forum was full of upper-class white college kids who don't have families but damn I was not expecting Terry's anti-parental involvement quote to be spun into a positive.

After all these months away it's good to see that some things haven't changed, like you being a disingenuous hack.

[Matty]

The virginia race (and other races at this point) are illustrating what is wrong with american politics. Things are way, WAY too nationalized. A truly intellectual voter wouldn't give 2 sh**ts about trump or biden in a gubernatorial race.

Whatever happened to the radical idea that your vote for governor should be determined by your VIEWS OF THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR POLICIES.

It makes me so angry to hear rural VA voters in interviews cite "biden and the border" and urban frumpy, educated women cite "trump" when asked about their views of the VA race.

It is bad news, all around. State parties should be penalized and rewarded for how their state is doing, not for how the national parties are perceived. We are entering an era where state parties can drive their states into the ground with horrible policy and voters don't punish them because a vote for a local candidate of the opposing party is somehow seen as "voting for the national opposing party"

This needs to end, quickly. A pox on ANYONE who votes for youngkin solely because trump said so, or for mcauliffe because "i hate trump" '

it's lazy, it's not scholarly, and you sound like a low iq, social media addicted loser.

It used to not be this way, as late as 2014.

voters in louisiana had no problem voting D for governor after gop misrule

voters in maryland voted gop after dem misrule

voters in CT nearly elected gop governor

illinois elected gop governor

North carolina elected dem governor

it's f'n bs what is happening now.

[Dan the Roman]

The virginia race (and other races at this point) are illustrating what is wrong with american politics. Things are way, WAY too nationalized. A truly intellectual voter wouldn't give 2 sh**ts about trump or biden in a gubernatorial race.

Whatever happened to the radical idea that your vote for governor should be determined by your VIEWS OF THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR POLICIES.

It makes me so angry to hear rural VA voters in interviews cite "biden and the border" and urban frumpy, educated women cite "trump" when asked about their views of the VA race.

It is bad news, all around. State parties should be penalized and rewarded for how their state is doing, not for how the national parties are perceived. We are entering an era where state parties can drive their states into the ground with horrible policy and voters don't punish them because a vote for a local candidate of the opposing party is somehow seen as "voting for the national opposing party"

This needs to end, quickly. A pox on ANYONE who votes for youngkin solely because trump said so, or for mcauliffe because "i hate trump" '

it's lazy, it's not scholarly, and you sound like a low iq, social media addicted loser.

It used to not be this way, as late as 2014.

voters in louisiana had no problem voting D for governor after gop misrule

voters in maryland voted gop after dem misrule

voters in CT nearly elected gop governor

illinois elected gop governor

North carolina elected dem governor

it's f'n bs what is happening now.

Part of this is Youngkin's fault. Youngkin concluded he had too much to lose running as a Baker or Scott or Hogan.

The simple problem for Youngkin and for any Virginian who does not like CRT, feels that fear of causing offense means that anti-social behavior is being tolerated under the guise of tolerence, etc is that

80% of Virginia Republicans

Believe Trump won in 2020
(Even if they don't believe that the manipulations by the media re Russiagate/power of universities justify "rebalancing" the influence of urban voters by overturning the results)
Would ban vaccine mandates, with at least 60% wanting to ban private businesses
 Would support a Texas style law

The issue isn't whether Youngkin would like those things or not. He cannot oppose them because his voters want them. And therefore he cannot come out and say he would veto them if they crossed his desk. In turn, any voter who would like an option other than McAuliffe has to accept that Youngkin will be dependent upon and in thrall too hardcore MAGA Republicans regardless of whether he goes to bed at night wishing he could be campaigning with recently retired President Romney.

Those voters who are refusing to separate Youngkin from Trump are not wrong. Youngkin cannot separate himself. And there is zero reason to think he will be able to in office.

Youngkin may not be extreme. But he has proven consistently throughout this campaign that he is weak. Why should they expect him to even be a Mike Dewine in office? Why shouldn't they assume he isn't Abbott or Desantis?

[Dan the Roman]

I knew this forum was full of upper-class white college kids who don't have families but damn I was not expecting Terry's anti-parental involvement quote to be spun into a positive.

Those words mean different things to different people.

For Republican retirees and younger single activists, "parental rights" is a culture war fetish.
For Democrats it is January 6th protestors coming to their town.

For everyone in the middle, it is nightmare they wish would end. However genuine the anti-woke backlash, and all you have to do is look at the reaction to the pathetic attempts to cancel Chapelle to see there is the kindling for a real one, and a seismic one at that - the "parental rights movement" has been thoroughly hijacked by the usual suspects and is increasingly indistinguishable from the same people who did Tea Party/Birthirism stuff in 2009. In Northern VA it is literally the usual suspects, and it is just them because they have been allowed to scare everyone else off.

Democrats here are delusional to think this was not a real issue in the spring, is not still a real issue, and not one which will return if they do not deal with the underlying causes.

But Republicans are delusional not to realize that this was not tens of millions of Biden voting college educated liberal parents suddenly embracing all the shibboleths of talk radio. And that by adopting the imagery, slogans, and personalities of a media and language they associate with white trash, the entire movement and issue has been tarnished.

I have yet to see in any of the coverage or polling evidence that actual Biden voters are defecting over this stuff now. And why should they? Its been hijacked.

[Person Man]

I knew this forum was full of upper-class white college kids who don't have families but damn I was not expecting Terry's anti-parental involvement quote to be spun into a positive.

Those words mean different things to different people.

For Republican retirees and younger single activists, "parental rights" is a culture war fetish.
For Democrats it is January 6th protestors coming to their town.

For everyone in the middle, it is nightmare they wish would end. However genuine the anti-woke backlash, and all you have to do is look at the reaction to the pathetic attempts to cancel Chapelle to see there is the kindling for a real one, and a seismic one at that - the "parental rights movement" has been thoroughly hijacked by the usual suspects and is increasingly indistinguishable from the same people who did Tea Party/Birthirism stuff in 2009. In Northern VA it is literally the usual suspects, and it is just them because they have been allowed to scare everyone else off.

Democrats here are delusional to think this was not a real issue in the spring, is not still a real issue, and not one which will return if they do not deal with the underlying causes.

But Republicans are delusional not to realize that this was not tens of millions of Biden voting college educated liberal parents suddenly embracing all the shibboleths of talk radio. And that by adopting the imagery, slogans, and personalities of a media and language they associate with white trash, the entire movement and issue has been tarnished.

I have yet to see in any of the coverage or polling evidence that actual Biden voters are defecting over this stuff now. And why should they? Its been hijacked.

That’s the problem for Republicans. A lot of reasonable concerns are being ignored because of how irresponsible the Republican Party has become. It’s the same reason Democrats are becoming unpopular. A lot of pragmatic progressive and popular  ideas are now considered “gateway drugs” to bizarre and avoidable undue burdens on livelihoods and businesses, various types of reverse discrimination, and not just tolerating or even accepting what they find a little weird or creepy but actively encouraging people to be dysfunctional.

The flip side to this is that a lot of good conservative ideas are now just considered a path to the trailer park.

[Devils30]

Turnout of course will be well down from 2020 but I am looking at it as a % compared to what 2017 was to 2016. In 2017 it was 65.6% of 2016's total vote.

If this holds in 2021 we would get a total vote of around 2.9 million or so.

[roxas11]

The virginia race (and other races at this point) are illustrating what is wrong with american politics. Things are way, WAY too nationalized. A truly intellectual voter wouldn't give 2 sh**ts about trump or biden in a gubernatorial race.

Whatever happened to the radical idea that your vote for governor should be determined by your VIEWS OF THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR POLICIES.

It makes me so angry to hear rural VA voters in interviews cite "biden and the border" and urban frumpy, educated women cite "trump" when asked about their views of the VA race.

It is bad news, all around. State parties should be penalized and rewarded for how their state is doing, not for how the national parties are perceived. We are entering an era where state parties can drive their states into the ground with horrible policy and voters don't punish them because a vote for a local candidate of the opposing party is somehow seen as "voting for the national opposing party"

This needs to end, quickly. A pox on ANYONE who votes for youngkin solely because trump said so, or for mcauliffe because "i hate trump" '

it's lazy, it's not scholarly, and you sound like a low iq, social media addicted loser.

It used to not be this way, as late as 2014.

voters in louisiana had no problem voting D for governor after gop misrule

voters in maryland voted gop after dem misrule

voters in CT nearly elected gop governor

illinois elected gop governor

North carolina elected dem governor

it's f'n bs what is happening now.

Its Glenn Youngkins own fault for that because in that now infamous video when he was asked if he would support defunding Planned Parenthood and a ban on abortion

This was his response

I’m going to be really honest with you, the short answer is in this campaign I can’t. When I’m governor, and I have a majority in the House, we can start going on offense. But as a campaign topic, sadly, that in fact won’t win me independent votes that I have to get.


Somebody like Larry hogan or any other moderate Republican would have never responded to that question like that. If Youngkin truly belived that this election had nothing to do with national politics he would have never even entertained the idea of getting into a fight with Planned Parenthood in the first place.

Glenn Youngkin private comments made it clear to me that he does now want to be the next Larry hogan he wants to be the next Ron Desantis and Greg Abbott

So while I overall agree with your premise that things are becoming too nationalized. Lets not for 1 second fool ourselves into thinking that Glenn Youngkin will be a governor who will ignore national politics lol

[Pericles]

The Republican Party stands for the same things in Virginia, Florida, Texas, Wisconsin, you name it. Why should Democrats vote for someone who will run down their public services, pander to the racists in their policies, deny women the right to choose, do nothing about climate change, and even try to rig the system so Democrats are unfairly disadvantaged? It's different when in cases like Maryland and Louisiana, the minority party actually tries to reflect the views of their state and avoid the stuff people hate from their party. However, there's no reason for people who didn't support Trump to support Youngkin. Frankly, polarisation isn't a bad thing, people should be consistent and vote their views up and down the ballot. The problem is that the American political system is poorly designed so that it's far too hard for either party to get a fair chance to win full control and then do what they promise.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The virginia race (and other races at this point) are illustrating what is wrong with american politics. Things are way, WAY too nationalized. A truly intellectual voter wouldn't give 2 sh**ts about trump or biden in a gubernatorial race.

Whatever happened to the radical idea that your vote for governor should be determined by your VIEWS OF THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR POLICIES.

It makes me so angry to hear rural VA voters in interviews cite "biden and the border" and urban frumpy, educated women cite "trump" when asked about their views of the VA race.

It is bad news, all around. State parties should be penalized and rewarded for how their state is doing, not for how the national parties are perceived. We are entering an era where state parties can drive their states into the ground with horrible policy and voters don't punish them because a vote for a local candidate of the opposing party is somehow seen as "voting for the national opposing party"

This needs to end, quickly. A pox on ANYONE who votes for youngkin solely because trump said so, or for mcauliffe because "i hate trump" '

it's lazy, it's not scholarly, and you sound like a low iq, social media addicted loser.

It used to not be this way, as late as 2014.

voters in louisiana had no problem voting D for governor after gop misrule

voters in maryland voted gop after dem misrule

voters in CT nearly elected gop governor

illinois elected gop governor

North carolina elected dem governor

it's f'n bs what is happening now.

Its Glenn Youngkins own fault for that because in that now infamous video when he was asked if he would support defunding Planned Parenthood and a ban on abortion

This was his response

I’m going to be really honest with you, the short answer is in this campaign I can’t. When I’m governor, and I have a majority in the House, we can start going on offense. But as a campaign topic, sadly, that in fact won’t win me independent votes that I have to get.


Somebody like Larry hogan or any other moderate Republican would have never responded to that question like that. If Youngkin truly belived that this election had nothing to do with national politics he would have never even entertained the idea of getting into a fight with Planned Parenthood in the first place.

Glenn Youngkin private comments made it clear to me that he does now want to be the next Larry hogan he wants to be the next Ron Desantis and Greg Abbott

So while I overall agree with your premise that things are becoming too nationalized. Lets not for 1 second fool ourselves into thinking that Glenn Youngkin will be a governor who will ignore national politics lol

Virginia isn't Maryland. Most of Youngkin's votes (even if he wins) will be coming from Republicans, he just needs quite a few Democrats and independents too.
He can't campaign as a RINO because then Republicans won't vote for him and he'll lose even worse.