NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[UWS]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

Lean R flip.

You don't remember what happened to Scott Brown in 2014, he was a popular moderate and leading Shaheen and he Lost in an R plus 5 and we are in a Neutral Environment as of now, but it can be a blue wave, relax, it's 500 days til Election, Hassan in last poll was at 50% Approvals as n a Change poll

Sununu is not Scott Brown. He has higher name recognition as he's from the Sununu family and unlike Brown he is not a carpetbagger. That is unlike Hassan who was actually a carpetbagger in 2002 when she first ran for the New Hampshire while she was from Massachusetts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

Lean R flip.

You don't remember what happened to Scott Brown in 2014, he was a popular moderate and leading Shaheen and he Lost in an R plus 5 and we are in a Neutral Environment as of now, but it can be a blue wave, relax, it's 500 days til Election, Hassan in last poll was at 50% Approvals as n a Change poll

Sununu is not Scott Brown. He has higher name recognition as he's from the Sununu family and unlike Brown he is not a carpetbagger. That is unlike Hassan who was actually a carpetbagger in 2002 when she first ran for the New Hampshire while she was from Massachusetts.

There hasn't been a Single poll and the last poll had Hassan at 55% Approvals, NH isn't AL either, Hassan can win in 500 days and so can Ds, the Rs haven't won the PVI since 2014 and the EC College since 2016 8 yrs is a long time ago and they haven't even taken the lead on Generic ballot, let me know when this is a 2014 Election when they won by 5 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You forgot John Sununu in 2008, lost in a PVI 6=0 Election to Jeanne Shaheen too, it wasn't an 8.0 Election like Rs continue to claim

So what for Sununu name

[S019]

This is a bizarre answer:

https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1395102001869037572?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do think in a Runoff scenario WARNOCK will lose, he is the only one below 50% Hassan will win, she is at 55% in the last Change poll

51/49 Senators

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For the record GA hasn't been a D State since 1992 and it's a Runoff anyways, it's very doubtful that WARNOCK will get to 50% on Election day

[2016]

Comparing Chris Sununu to Scott Brown like Mister Kanye West does is downright ridiculous, hilarious and ludicrous all at once.

A very popular Governor versus a 2-Year Placeholder. What a joke! Sununu is among the most popular Governors in the entire Country, Democrat and Republicans alike. If he runs this Race is definitly Tillt to Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For the record Mr 2016, John Sununu lost in 2008 to Jeanne Shaheen in a D plus 5 yr against SHAHEEN, Sununus have lost before

The Generic ballot have bounced around between tied and plus 5.0

When was the last time Rs won PVI 2014 in a R wave yr 7 yrs ago, don't tell me about Red waves

[2016]

For the record Mr 2016, John Sununu lost in 2008 to Jeanne Shaheen in a D plus 5 yr against SHAHEEN, Sununus have lost before

The Generic ballot have bounced around between tied and plus 5.0

When was the last time Rs won PVI 2014 in a R wave yr 7 yrs ago, don't tell me about Red waves

No way that 2008 was just a D+5 year. It was higher Mister Kanye West. And for the Record John E. Sununu was nowhere near as popular as Chris Sununu is right now.
There won't be a Democratic Wave in 2022.
Chris Sununu would even win in a neutral Political Environment!
Sununu

[Xing]

Standing by my assertion that this is more likely to flip than NV. Uniform swing never happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls are meaningless until 2022 anyways, we have a full yr til polls in key states matter

We don't even have polls PA, KS Gov, NC Sen OH Sen all they polled was NH, WI and GA, MI

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

This is a bizarre answer:

https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1395102001869037572?s=21

Yeah, he's in. Sununu is first and foremost a swamp creature and a GOP footsoldier. And if The Swamp wants him to run, he will run.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, f***. New Hampshire Democrats need to start tying him to McConnell stat! Otherwise we better hope that we can flip Pennsylvania and defend everything successfully. I'm not so optimistic that all can be accomplished.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, f***. New Hampshire Democrats need to start tying him to McConnell stat! Otherwise we better hope that we can flip Pennsylvania and defend everything successfully. I'm not so optimistic that all can be accomplished.

WI is on the verge of flipping as well Nelson has lead in two consecutive polls

As of right now it's a 51/48 Senate with GA going to a Runoff

Which will set us up if we keep the H a 52/48 and see if Tester have the backbone to push thru Statehood

[UWS]

Sununu will be able to blast Hassan's record as Governor in handling the Opioid Crisis and compare it to his own record of handling that crisis. In fact, when Hassan was Governor, she mishandled this crisis as she vetoed budgets providing treatment funding in the midst of the state’s growing heroin problem in addition of denying services to some of the state's most needy, resulting to 429 people dying a year. Meanwhile, when Sununu was Governor, the state received $3.6 Million in new opioid response funding to continue to break down barriers to treatment and support people on their path to recovery.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvUqOc6hPE0

https://www.governor.nh.gov/news-and-media/state-new-hampshire-receive-36-million-new-opioid-response-funding

[Utah Neolib]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

YEA BOY HERE WE GO!!! COOKIE MAN FOR SENATE!!!

cookie man?

[Real Texan Politics]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

YEA BOY HERE WE GO!!! COOKIE MAN FOR SENATE!!!

cookie man?

It's an election twitter meme stemming from a picture of him eating a cookie from a general store.

[Xing]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

YEA BOY HERE WE GO!!! COOKIE MAN FOR SENATE!!!

cookie man?

I think he’s talking about Cookie Roberts.

[Nyvin]

Sununu will be able to blast Hassan's record as Governor in handling the Opioid Crisis and compare it to his own record of handling that crisis. In fact, when Hassan was Governor, she mishandled this crisis as she vetoed budgets providing treatment funding in the midst of the state’s growing heroin problem in addition of denying services to some of the state's most needy, resulting to 429 people dying a year. Meanwhile, when Sununu was Governor, the state received $3.6 Million in new opioid response funding to continue to break down barriers to treatment and support people on their path to recovery.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvUqOc6hPE0

https://www.governor.nh.gov/news-and-media/state-new-hampshire-receive-36-million-new-opioid-response-funding

Hassan never had a Dem trifecta.   Sununu has had four years of GOP trifectas.

[Utah Neolib]

Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

YEA BOY HERE WE GO!!! COOKIE MAN FOR SENATE!!!

cookie man?

It's an election twitter meme stemming from a picture of him eating a cookie from a general store.

Ah, now I know

[Devils30]

Sununu is the one with the most Roe v. Wade risk. NH is a very pro choice state and he could drop fast if the court upheld the Mississippi law.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see Rs cracking the blue wall in the Senate, the polls on the Natl Level show D's holding the blue wall, Jeanne Shaheen in 2008/ was able to beat John Sununu, the family isn't unbeatable and that was only a D plus 5 Environment

This race hinges alot on our Gubernatorial nominee and Molly Kelly whom almost came back and won in 2018 might run

[Pollster]

Sununu is the one with the most Roe v. Wade risk. NH is a very pro choice state and he could drop fast if the court upheld the Mississippi law.

This is true, a Republican victory in New Hampshire requires the GOP candidate to win over a significant number (probably at least 1 in 3, if not 2 in 5) of pro-choice voters, as well as not lose too many anti-choice voters to the Democrat.

[MT Treasurer]

The Supreme Court isn’t actually going to overturn Roe (at best they will uphold some state-specific restrictions). There’s also no way a Republican who won by a 2-to-1 margin in a state like NH didn’t enjoy significant crossover support from pro-choice voters and social/cultural liberals — most of that will erode in a federal race against any Democrat, but some of it is all that’s needed here.

I think 'Compassionate Chris' is just a lot better at this game than Kelly Ayotte or Maggie Hassan, and I don’t really buy that his brand will easily be dismantled by going the Gideon route of outspending him 4-to-1 and spending hundreds of millions on attack ads tying him to McConnell/Trump/Young Kim or whatever.

[KaiserDave]

The Supreme Court isn’t actually going to overturn Roe (at best they will uphold some state-specific restrictions). There’s also no way a Republican who won by a 2-to-1 margin in a state like NH didn’t enjoy significant crossover support from pro-choice voters and social/cultural liberals — most of that will erode in a federal race against any Democrat, but some of it is all that’s needed here.

I think 'Compassionate Chris' is just a lot better at this game than Kelly Ayotte or Maggie Hassan, and I don’t really buy that his brand will easily be dismantled by going the Gideon route of outspending him 4-to-1 and spending hundreds of millions on attack ads tying him to McConnell/Trump/Young Kim or whatever.

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?