NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[2016]

Comparing Chris Sununu to Scott Brown like Mister Kanye West does is downright ridiculous, hilarious and ludicrous all at once.

A very popular Governor versus a 2-Year Placeholder. What a joke! Sununu is among the most popular Governors in the entire Country, Democrat and Republicans alike. If he runs this Race is definitly Tillt to Lean R.

[2016]

For the record Mr 2016, John Sununu lost in 2008 to Jeanne Shaheen in a D plus 5 yr against SHAHEEN, Sununus have lost before

The Generic ballot have bounced around between tied and plus 5.0

When was the last time Rs won PVI 2014 in a R wave yr 7 yrs ago, don't tell me about Red waves

No way that 2008 was just a D+5 year. It was higher Mister Kanye West. And for the Record John E. Sununu was nowhere near as popular as Chris Sununu is right now.
There won't be a Democratic Wave in 2022.
Chris Sununu would even win in a neutral Political Environment!
Sununu

[2016]

What happened in Virginia must have emboldened him.

To be perfectly honest with you the Results in Virginia & New Jersey would have embolded just about every Republican looking for a Senate Run. And Democrats keep digging themselves into deeper holes.

They have just passed a 1.2 Trillion $ Infrastructure Bill, YET they want to pass another 1.75 Trillion $ on top of that!

Hope Kelly Ayotte runs to replace Sununu should he run for Senate and keep his good policies in NH in place.

[2016]

To be fair, Sununu was probably in regardless of VA or NJ. Especially with his poll numbers.

Republican Governors have a pretty good Track Record winning Senate Races. Rick Scott, John Hoeven, Mike Rounds just to name a few. Granted Hoeven & Rounds don't live in Swing States.

I still think a Sununu vs Hassan Race will be right.

NH will give us a pretty good indicator how Election Night 2022 will go. Given the States large Independent Bloc of Voters (NH has more Registered Independents than Democrats & Republicans) if Sununu wins them there is no reason to believe Republicans won't win them elsewhere.

[2016]

Hassan beat Ayotte by only 2,000 Votes in 2016 and should easily be the most vulnerable Democrat in 2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire

[2016]

Hassan beat Ayotte by only 2,000 Votes in 2016 and should easily be the most vulnerable Democrat in 2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire

A bit of a false equivalency, as Ayotte was a legitimately popular incumbent at the time.

Not true at all!
Per CNN 2016 Exit Polls Ayotte was viewed 47 % Favorable/50 % Unfavorable
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/new-hampshire/senate

So saying Ayotte was popular doesn't pass the smell test here!

[2016]

Also if Sununu runs for Senate, NH Dems should see the silver lining, bail on the Senate race completely and instead gun for NH GOV to take away the GOP's trifecta.

They are undedog against Ayott as well

Considering the NHGOP's gerrymander plan I wouldn't be surprised to see Pappas bail on NH-1 and go for Governor. That'd make it a toss-up

Lol Sununu or Ayotte will be Gov come 2023 Chris Pappas won't be abd since when does a 3 to 5 pt lead make you a shoe in, that's margin of error Sununu is leading Hassan bye, that's not a secure spread

Youngkin won Independent Voters 54-45 on Tuesday. 2022 is all about Independent & Republican Suburban Women I think which the Republican Party got hammered under Trump in 2018 and 2020.

There are signs that they are coming back and if that's the case Democrats facing a bloodbath in 2022.

[2016]

I don't see why he'd be making such a big deal of it if he isn't running for Senate. He's in. Lean R.

He has 3 young Children! Why make the Announcement in Concord? It's really a 50/50 Chance regarding a Senate Run!

Many Governors who have a young Family are reluctant to move to Washington and rather love to stay in their respective Home States.

[2016]

Seems like he's in. You don't make a "long-awaited announcement" to not run, usually.

Probably but I am not sure. Like I've said he has a young family with 3 Children.

Having a young family contributed no doubt in my mind why Ron DeSantis quit Congress and ran for Governor of Florida in 2018.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1458081092200718336?s=21

Yeah, making this Announcement in Concord all but closed the Door on a Senate Run. He is citing Partisan Gridlock why he is running for a fourth Term.

[2016]

Yeah he's going for a fourth term as Gov.

Yeah, I am not surprised. He thinks he is more effective as Governor fighting Bidens & the Progressives Overreach with Vaccine Mandates, etc.

[2016]

Let's be blunt here: In these times you have waaaay more influence as Governor of a State even if it is only a small one compared to the 100 Clowns in the Senate!

[2016]

Good for him, I’d want to stay out of Washington as well.

Also good for him for helping Dems keep the Senate

Honestly if I were you I wouldn't pop up the Champagne here! Unlike 2020 when Warnock & Kelly were fresh faces with no baggage these two will be defined by their Voting Record. Consistently Voting for Progressive Ideas and 100 % with the Biden Administration won't help them. And so will be Maggie Hassan.

Schumer is making the same mistakes Harry Reid did prior to 2014.

[2016]

It might not end up mattering – as we saw in Virginia and New Jersey, voters now are more than happy to just saunter into the polling booth and pull the lever for whatever fool happens to have an R by their name if their 48 gallons of milk per month cost too much now – but the Republicans are really botching recruitment thus far. Just to recap their likely candidates:

NH-SEN: Probably Bolduc at this point (crackpot 2020 conspiracy theorist in a Biden+7 state).
PA-SEN: Sean Parnell looks likely (alleged wife and child abuser).
GA-SEN: Herschel Walker almost certainly (lives in Texas, insane, another wife abuser).
NV-SEN: Adam Laxalt almost certainly (another conspiracy theorist in a Biden state, though probably the best of the bunch so far; at least he has held elected office).
OH-SEN (extremely probably not competitive anyway but still): Likely either Josh Mandel or JD Vance.
MO-SEN (not competitive anyway but still): Eric Greitens at least possible (a third candidate who abuses women!)

At this point, really the only remotely competitive race which hasn't been a complete recruitment flop is Arizona with Brnovich, and even then Arizona has a time honored tradition of messy primaries where the candidates trip over themselves racing right.

There are 6 States Biden won in the 2020 Presidential Election:
Pennsylvania
Arizona
New Hampshire
Nevada
Georgia
and Wisconsin

In 4 of those States an Incumbent Democratic Senator is running for Re-Election (Kelly, Hassan, Cortez-Masto and Warnock). Realistically Democrats have only 2 Pick-Up Opportunities (PA & WI). Wisconsin is only a Pick-Up Opportunity if Johnson runs for Re-Election. If he bails and the GOP nominates either Mike Gallagher or Brian Steil that Opportunity is gone.

Why people like Olowakandi still think Democrats have a shot at winning OH, MO or NC is beyond me.

Trump won OH by 8 Points in 2016 & 2020 and MO by 18 Points (2016) and 16 Points (2020). DeWine won the OH Governorship in a D+8 Wave Year. McCaskill couldn't hold her Seat in a Wave Year.

And then we have NC and in a Biden Midterm no way Democrats are going to win there.

[2016]

Other interesting news: some Republicans are encouraging Matt Mowers to switch to the Senate race, now that Sununu, Ayotte, and Brown are out.

https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1458142489706209288?s=21

Honestly I am quite surprised no one is mentioning Frank Edelblut here who is currently the Education Commissioner in New Hampshire giving how Youngkin managed to make Education a Top Issue in the VA Governor Race.

LET'S GO FRANK, DO IT!

[2016]

Wow, Maggie Hassan really got lucky by Sununu not running. This would have the race made Lean Republican even though she wouldn't have been DOA (contrary to some beliefs). Ayotte not running either is really good news.

However, the race is Lean Democratic at best. Kelly, Warnock and CCM seem more vulnerable now. Nonetheless, the Democratic Senate campaign committee should heavily invest in this race, just like they would have with Sununu. It's not a sure thing in a red-leaning environment.

I'd rather have someone like a Mike Braun type-Republican from outside the beltway running against Hassan. Mike Braun wasn't the 1st Choice in Indiana in 2018. Everyone was focused on Rokita and Messer.

Youngkin, who won the VA Governorship was a "Nobody". I like these sort of Republican Candidates.

[2016]

Wow, Maggie Hassan really got lucky by Sununu not running. This would have the race made Lean Republican even though she wouldn't have been DOA (contrary to some beliefs). Ayotte not running either is really good news.

However, the race is Lean Democratic at best. Kelly, Warnock and CCM seem more vulnerable now. Nonetheless, the Democratic Senate campaign committee should heavily invest in this race, just like they would have with Sununu. It's not a sure thing in a red-leaning environment.

I'd rather have someone like a Mike Braun type-Republican from outside the beltway running against Hassan. Mike Braun wasn't the 1st Choice in Indiana in 2018. Everyone was focused on Rokita and Messer.

Youngkin, who won the VA Governorship was a "Nobody". I like these sort of Republican Candidates.

Terry McAuliffe was a retread like Crist is, if Bobby Scott runs against Sears or someone brand new we could of won and will win it in 2025

Newsom, got luckily in the recall because Biden wasn't underwater in Sept, if the recall happened now, since everyone didn't get a stimulus he would have Lost


MT Treasurer have yet to comment, Chris Sununu was his pal

You are talking nonsense Olowakandi! The Education Issue won't go away in 2022 or anytime soon!

[2016]

NH State Senate President Chuck Morse is now seriously thinking about running for Senate against Hassan.

This will be Hagan vs Tillis reloaded if Morse runs. Hassan would make this Race about the NH State Legislature while Morse would likely nationalize the Race and make it about President Biden & Congressional Democrats.

[2016]

NH State Senate President Chuck Morse is now seriously thinking about running for Senate against Hassan.

This will be Hagan vs Tillis reloaded if Morse runs. Hassan would make this Race about the NH State Legislature while Morse would likely nationalize the Race and make it about President Biden & Congressional Democrats.

Morse is probably "the" most anti-marijuana politician in NH.   He's also not all that charismatic if you ever heard him talk.  I don't think he's all that good of a candidate.  He runs in a super Safe R district in the southeast.

Republicans may not even need New Hampshire. Sure, it would be a nice Bonus to them but they can retake the Senate by winning the 3 Senate Races in the States where Biden won by less than 30K Votes. Biden won AZ by 10,457 Votes, GA by 11,779 Votes and WI by 20,682 Votes. Republicans win all 3, they have the Senate IMO.

That being said if New Hampshire is really close without Sununu or any other high profile Republican running it would pretend bad things for Democrats on November 8th 2022.

NH has 43 % Independent Electorate. Of Course one year can be very long but right now in every Poll we look Indies going against Democrats and if Republicans would win Indies in NH there is no reason to believe that they won't win them elsewhere.

[2016]

This is interesting: some of the leading potential Republican candidates for Senate are meeting today, in hopes of avoiding a divisive primary.

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1468333636520972292?s=21

Smart Play! Hopefully they can come up with something!

[2016]

The Democrats heading into a full-blown obvilion in 2022 in New Hampshire and elsewhere and they might not need an A-Lister or B-Lister to defeat Senator Hassan
https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-new-nhjournal-poll-finds-biden-bbb-underwater-with-granite-state-voters/

Biden has a 43/57 Favorable/Unfavorable Rating; BBB Bill is being opposed by Granite State Voters 45-52.

A jaw-dropping 70 % of of New Hampshire Voters say the Country is off the wrong track among other things.

[2016]

Morse running! Good! I knew he would after Sununu passed on the Race.

[2016]

President Bidens JA 39/60 in the State per UNH Survey Center Poll
https://twitter.com/UNHSurveyCenter/status/1486367712196526081

Hassan ain't going to outperform Biden by 11 Points. Morse can win this.

[2016]

Hassan comes out against the Biden Adminstration's plan to end title 42, goes to the U.S-Mexico border.

Her home state shares a border with Canada. So when New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan recently showed up more than 2,000 miles away, at the U.S border with Mexico, it created a backlash.

Not just among Republicans — who mocked her as ‘MAGA Maggie’ and dismissed her appearances in Texas and Arizona as a desperate attempt to appear tough on border security — but within her own party. Latino leaders reacted with rage to her southern border visit in early April and her opposition to the Biden administration’s plan to lift the Trump-era border restriction known as Title 42.


Members of the New Hampshire Democratic Latino Caucus resigned from their party leadership posts in an angry public letter. A Democratic state lawmaker took to the House floor to rail against Hassan and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), who also opposes the administration’s effort to end Title 42. More than a dozen progressives and immigration advocates gathered in Portsmouth Tuesday — the same day President Joe Biden was visiting the city — to protest Hassan’s stance and demand that she meet with them.


The fierce pushback is a glimpse into the volatile politics surrounding Title 42 and the pressures buffeting vulnerable swing-state senators like Hassan — one of four Democratic incumbents whose fate in November will likely determine control of the Senate.

Let these activists cry and cry some more. Believe it or not, but there are people who support when dems stand up to the loonies. Good on Maggie for having some common sense.

I just don't think that is going to safe her. New Hampshire is very much a State that is dependend on the National Environment. If Bidens Approvals are below 40ties as they are right now she is likely going to lose.