NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Mr.Phips]

Hot take: If Ossoff and Warnock win the GA runoffs, Hassan will probably lose to any competent candidate (not just Sununu) because two years of ‘[Hassan/Cortez Masto/Kelly] cast the deciding vote for [xxx]’ attacks will be pretty devastating and the national backlash against a D trifecta won’t be pretty.

I don’t agree with that unless Sununu is running against her.  The state is to the left of the national average.

Yes, and we all know that it’s impossible for a party to win states which are a little more favorable to the other party than the national average in (mini-)wave years. Just ask Sens. Udall, Braley, McSally, etc.

Udall had a superstar candidate (at the time) running against him, McSally was a very weak candidate who had the best possible candidate run against her (without the benefit of incumbency), and Bradley (who also wasn’t an incumbent) was running in a Republican trending state.  Republicans don’t have a Krysten Sinema or a Cory Gardner in New Hampshire other than Sununu.

[free my dawg]

Feeling a bit better about this race than I was pre-2020; NH was a bright spot for Democrats this cycles, at least on the federal level. Despite this though, I do think ME-Sen has shown us how in some of these smaller states, particularly those in the North East, "canidate quality" can still affect results. Jeanne Shaheen, for instance, had a pretty solid overperformance of Biden, and I think that spells out a bit of trouble for Dems in NH-Sen 2022, the same way King's performance showed that split ticket voting was still alive and well in Maine.

I'd say Shaheen's overperformance was because of Messner's various problems. A more conventional candidate with roots here would have ran more evenly.

I'm definitely a lot more bullish on Sununu's chances than everyone else. Unlike Scott, Sununu's actual politics/style are a fit for the state.

I agree, and NH has more of a willingness to split ballot than FL, but I'm not counting Shaheen out, especially if this race becomes too heavily nationalized and if McConnel overplays his hand.

Of course, there's the wild card that is the GOP legislature. It's one thing to govern with a Democratic House and Senate. It's a completely different thing when you have to rein in your legislature. On issues like Planned Parenthood funding, it will be difficult to get the GOP to fall in line.

[free my dawg]

My point was more that ‘candidate quality’ advantages only get you so far in wave elections these days. If Republicans hold the GA seats, then yeah, I’d agree that Republicans probably need Sununu to actually flip the state, but if not, I think any competent state legislator or businessman could give Hassan and the other two vulnerable Democrats a run for their money b/c Manchin won’t be able to do his usual con job and any Democrat will be the deciding vote for Schumer's proposals. Concerns about the bench should be taken seriously, but don’t assume that CCM, Hassan, and Kelly can get away with any vote because of that or right ‘messaging.’

That's the problem. The volunteerist nature of the General Court (especially as a state rep) tends to stifle that. Sure, you're rich enough to lock down a primary seat, but developing the connections to fundraise takes time and effort. State Senator Sharon Carson considered a challenge to Shea-Porter way back in 2014, but it failed to get off the ground. The only people from the General Court to win were Marilinda Garcia (who had a strong national profile already as a millennial Hispanic Republican) and Steve Negron (who largely self-funded). The 2nd-in-command in the House couldn't even beat a Some Dude when he ran!

So instead of trying to find a diamond in the rough (like Bolduc appeared to be), you run and nominate a bunch of transplants like Corky Messner and Walt Havenstein, who soak up the airwaves and can basically buy the GOP nomination. You also have Matt Mowers, who is essentially a Trump acolyte.

Which really leads to the question of who Republicans have that can do that. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who has strong national connections on the level of Mowers is Al Baldasaro. There's no way in hell he gets elected.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325852725813276672

Big fan of the general, but Sununu would (probably) cruise to a win in the primary. Hassan is being underestimated, but as long as the governor sticks to doing his job well, and stays sharp we will likely flip the seat. Easily the last person democrats should want to run.

Seems like a Bill Weld/Steve Bullock situation.

You can't really compare NH and MA, NH voted for Biden by 7 while MA voted for him by 35, if you believe that Hassan is going to win by double digits especially if Sununu run against her, you are in for a rude awakening

[free my dawg]

Even Democrats are vulnerable to carpetbagging. Maura Sullivan didn't even set foot here before running for Congress! At least Messner/Havenstein/Brown had a vacation home and Mowers used to live in NH for work. 

And she still competed because she had extensive national connections. Not only did she lay the ground for a run in other districts early on (and had the second-best resume out of any rep running in 2018), but she's been friends with Seth Moulton since college. I wouldn't be surprised to see Democrats hitting the same levels of desperation if their bench thins out.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sununu now has a republican trifecta, he isn't going to be able to maintain his popularity anymore because they are almost certainly going to push some hardline culture war bullsh**t like defunding planned parenthodo or something that will alienate the populace. Sununu will then have to choose between vetoing it and pissing of his base(loosing the primary) or not and having his popularity erode.

I don't think he's favoured.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Sununu now has a republican trifecta, he isn't going to be able to maintain his popularity anymore because they are almost certainly going to push some hardline culture war bullsh**t like defunding planned parenthodo or something that will alienate the populace. Sununu will then have to choose between vetoing it and pissing of his base(loosing the primary) or not and having his popularity erode.

I don't think he's favoured.

The GOP doesn't have the margins in legislative to really push any culture war stuff.

[tosk]

Sununu now has a republican trifecta, he isn't going to be able to maintain his popularity anymore because they are almost certainly going to push some hardline culture war bullsh**t like defunding planned parenthodo or something that will alienate the populace. Sununu will then have to choose between vetoing it and pissing of his base(loosing the primary) or not and having his popularity erode.

I don't think he's favoured.

The GOP doesn't have the margins in legislative to really push any culture war stuff.

I don't really expect them to push culture war issues. Morse/Sununu/Hinch probably want to focus more on economic/reformist stuff.

[free my dawg]

Sununu now has a republican trifecta, he isn't going to be able to maintain his popularity anymore because they are almost certainly going to push some hardline culture war bullsh**t like defunding planned parenthodo or something that will alienate the populace. Sununu will then have to choose between vetoing it and pissing of his base(loosing the primary) or not and having his popularity erode.

I don't think he's favoured.

The GOP doesn't have the margins in legislative to really push any culture war stuff.

They 100% do in the Executive Council. Gatsas, Kenney, and Wheeler all have voted not to in the past. I don't expect Stevens to vote to defund it, but the other 3 literally have a legislative record on the subject.

Sununu doesn't have a say in whether or not Planned Parenthood gets defunded or not, because the Executive Council can vote down the contract anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu vetoed the minimum wage twice, he is no Moderate and he will be tied to McConnell's failed leadership on minimum wage, Sununu is not a maverick. He ran against Feltas in 2020 and he almost lost to Molly Kelly in 2018, who wasn't an INCUMBENT


What's the big deal about Chris Sununu, we already had John Sununu whom lost to Shaheen for voting failed Bush W tax cuts..Hassan will beat him, he isn't invincible

[KaiserDave]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I dreamt that Ayotte will run for Senate.

[tosk]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I dreamt that Ayotte will run for Senate.

she's running for something, and the local rumor mill is she's eyeing the corner office rather than her old senate seat. Of course, the intra-gop rumors just a few months ago were that Sununu wasn't going to run for anything in 2022.

[Roll Roons]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I dreamt that Ayotte will run for Senate.

she's running for something, and the local rumor mill is she's eyeing the corner office rather than her old senate seat. Of course, the intra-gop rumors just a few months ago were that Sununu wasn't going to run for anything in 2022.

Wouldn't be the first time a New England Republican gets elected governor after losing their Senate seat...
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Connecticut_gubernatorial_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Rhode_Island_gubernatorial_election

[GALeftist]

Sununu comes out against the relief bill:

https://twitter.com/GovChrisSununu/status/1365712257762615299

Personally, I would have just kept my mouth shut and not taken the gamble if I were him. Unlike incumbent senators, he doesn't need to have a position, and if it turns out that the bill works well this could backfire. He is governor, though, so I guess he must know what he's doing.

(P.S. the "bipartisan" there means that Laura Kelly signed on. Not even JBE lol)

[SnowLabrador]

Sununu comes out against the relief bill:

https://twitter.com/GovChrisSununu/status/1365712257762615299

Personally, I would have just kept my mouth shut and not taken the gamble if I were him. Unlike incumbent senators, he doesn't need to have a position, and if it turns out that the bill works well this could backfire. He is governor, though, so I guess he must know what he's doing.

(P.S. the "bipartisan" there means that Laura Kelly signed on. Not even JBE lol)

Yeah, not a wise move for him. Hopefully this is a sign that he might not be running after all.

[BudgieForce]

Sununu is a shoe in for re-election. Why bother running in a potentially hard fought and career ending senate race when you can just run for re-election and go after Shaheen's seat when she probably retires in 2026.

[KaiserDave]

Sununu comes out against the relief bill:

https://twitter.com/GovChrisSununu/status/1365712257762615299

Personally, I would have just kept my mouth shut and not taken the gamble if I were him. Unlike incumbent senators, he doesn't need to have a position, and if it turns out that the bill works well this could backfire. He is governor, though, so I guess he must know what he's doing.

(P.S. the "bipartisan" there means that Laura Kelly signed on. Not even JBE lol)

He may not be that smart. Especially given this bill will probably be very good for New Hampshire.

[MT Treasurer]

This is hardly surprising. If this is still one of the salient issues in late 2022, it’s how he sells his opposition to the bill (e.g. Washington special interests forcing hard-working Granite Staters to bail out blue states, Democrats inserting a partisan agenda into a bill for struggling Granite Staters and politicizing the pain of New Hampshire families, etc.) that will make the difference. Plus, if he praised and/or supported the bill, it would make it a lot easier for Hassan to take credit for it and potentially later attack him for changing his tone after the political winds had changed, so he’d be playing into the Democrats' hands.

I actually do think he knows what he’s doing here.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Sununu is likely setting himself up for running either for Senate or another term as governor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu vetoed to he minimum wage twice as Gov, that's why females will vote for Hassan and Sununu is only 2 pts ahead

[MillennialModerate]

I don’t understand the move myself - yes he can do the cute political slogan dance but Hassan can just say - We wanted to give you $1,400 to help you out and he didn’t. Pretty simple. And if the cost is every invoked - well the GOP didn’t mind the cost of giving the rich a tax cut. Simple

Oh and is there ANYONE who knows anything about politics who thinks Sununu isn’t running? Come on lol

[Real Texan Politics]

Would Hassan be considered DOA at this point after voting against the $15 dollar minimum wage?

[I’m not Stu]

Would Hassan be considered DOA at this point after voting against the $15 dollar minimum wage?

But a Republican would vote against it too. Would Hassan beat Corey Lewandowski?

[Real Texan Politics]

Would Hassan be considered DOA at this point after voting against the $15 dollar minimum wage?

But a Republican would vote against it too. Would Hassan beat Corey Lewandowski?

Corey seems too pro-Trump to win any election there outside of a local race in the rural parts of the state. Maybe Sununu beats her (albeit narrowly), but outside of him, I don't think there's much for her to worry about outside of a progressive/pro $15 primary challenger.

[I’m not Stu]

What are the odds of Corey Lewandowski winning the GOP primary?