Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There aren't any Prediction maps, and we can make our Predictions anyway we like, so it doesn't even matter what we all think how the Election will turn out

[President Johnson]

President Biden's approval is shaping up to be even more stable than Trump's (dis)approval.

We have to see as it's still very early in his presidency. However, I believe it will remain relatively stable for a full four or even eight years, somewhere between 47% and 57%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 60% Approvals are hogwash RV Whitmer is trailing by 9 pts, I told ya, don't believe the RV poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://mobile.twitter.com/cygnal/status/1402730375479189506

No more rosey pbower2A maps

This means Hassan is DOA to Sununu too

I knew this was gonna happen when Biden hasn't solved the PANDEMIC

[Beet]

She's gonna get blanched.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

60% Approvals were hogwash


We are gonna win GA, SD Billie Sutton, WVA,MT-2 new district AK Gross on AK, and take over Washington DC Statehood, Yes

Howard Dean 2004

No

[pbrower2a]

There aren't any Prediction maps, and we can make our Predictions anyway we like, so it doesn't even matter what we all think how the Election will turn out

Who makes a predictive map yet? All that I have shown are approval maps, and then of about half the states. Little has changed in the orientation of the states from 2020 -- yet.

Plenty is yet to be decided. Republicans are going to try to ensure that they hold onto such offices as they have while Democrats have no means of keeping theirs from being at formal risk. This is one of those "Heads I win; tails you lose" situations at worst. R machines will do everything possible to ensure that such control as they have had does not come to an end. I have seen proposals in some states to authorize a state legislature to override a popular vote in the state.

Add to this... nominees will matter. Some nominees will do better in some states than in others with respect to how Trump does. Are 2008 and 2012, or 2016 and 2020, more relevant to such states as Florida, Iowa, and Ohio? We do not know that yet. Nobody does. Are Biden wins of Arizona and Georgia one-time freaks or portents of major change?

Most of us can predict an electoral result based on an overall shift of as much as 10% having results somewhat parallel to 2020. Anyone who now predicts that Indiana will go D in 2024 or that New Jersey will go R in 2024 is on something that might cause him to appreciate the cinematic mastery of Gigli.  (irony intended). 

Some trends are predictable. If the political climate does not otherwise change, then the tendency of voters over 55 (who vote about 5% more R than D) to vanish from the electorate from one election year to another (it is about 1.6% a year) with replacement by younger voters about 20% more D than R is one predictable trend. Republicans must find some way to offset this trend if they are to win the Presidency in 2024 -- or the Biden Administration must fail.

Incumbent Presidents have typically shown that they get re-elected unless their policies are provable failure or his agenda became stale (the elder Bush). (I will leave some room for another explanation of Gerald Ford --he had never been elected President, and he had no idea of how to run for re-election until too late'; this is not relevant to 2024). Staleness will be the least of problems for Biden.

It will matter greatly whether the Republican Party can effectively unite around some effective spokesman who can put together the Trump-supporters, the people who do not want another pol like Donald Trump, and perhaps win back some people who simply thought Joe Biden less scary than Donald Trump. We are far from that stage; we are still at lest three years away from knowing that.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

States on Midterms are more likely than in Prez yrs to BUCK THEIR OARTY TREND 2018 we had Brown and Sinema winning and DeWine , moderates winning.  Same with MD we had Hogan and Baker winning at the same time

We have Whitmer and Hassan trailing on polls and doing worse than Ryan in OH, with a divided primary we can see the Gov and Sen race possibly flip in OH at the same time Whitmer and Hassan losing

Again, it's not a sure thing but we know that Biden won OH and IA in 2008/2012 as Veep to Obama with Joe the Plumber argument against Romney

Then you have the Cali Recall, Newsom is tied at 45 if Majority support with 20 candidates recall Newsom he is out and Cox can't do anything with a D Supermajority legislature anyways, and would have to face Reelection in 2022 and Tom Steyer will run and give UBInto everyone, a mistake Newsom made

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another poll showing an R wave, Terry McAuliffe up by only 2, I am fine with an R Congress, l because Biden hasn't kept his campaign promises, the Covid has gotten better but it hasn't been Eradicated, DOJ hasn't Prosecuted Trump and he isnt going after Student Loan Debt, if it's truly a red wave, we should be prepared as I might vote to recall Newsom as I didn't get my 600.oo

I am not saying Rs are gonna take over but I am prepared for an R takeover

[Devils30]

Another poll showing an R wave, Terry McAuliffe up by only 2, I am fine with an R Congress, l because Biden hasn't kept his campaign promises, the Covid has gotten better but it hasn't been Eradicated, DOJ hasn't Prosecuted Trump and he isnt going after Student Loan Debt, if it's truly a red wave, we should be prepared as I might vote to recall Newsom as I didn't get my 600.oo

I am not saying Rs are gonna take over but I am prepared for an R takeover

It's a f**** Youngkin internal poll!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another poll showing an R wave, Terry McAuliffe up by only 2, I am fine with an R Congress, l because Biden hasn't kept his campaign promises, the Covid has gotten better but it hasn't been Eradicated, DOJ hasn't Prosecuted Trump and he isnt going after Student Loan Debt, if it's truly a red wave, we should be prepared as I might vote to recall Newsom as I didn't get my 600.oo

I am not saying Rs are gonna take over but I am prepared for an R takeover

It's a f**** Youngkin internal poll!

Arguing with OC generally accomplishes nothing but raising one's blood pressure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another poll showing an R wave, Terry McAuliffe up by only 2, I am fine with an R Congress, l because Biden hasn't kept his campaign promises, the Covid has gotten better but it hasn't been Eradicated, DOJ hasn't Prosecuted Trump and he isnt going after Student Loan Debt, if it's truly a red wave, we should be prepared as I might vote to recall Newsom as I didn't get my 600.oo

I am not saying Rs are gonna take over but I am prepared for an R takeover

It's a f**** Youngkin internal poll!

Arguing with OC generally accomplishes nothing but raising one's blood pressure.

Whitmer is in the same position as Hassan whom also is down by six pts and every R is still saying Sununu is favored to win and that poll of Sununu is 4 mnths old already, but that doesn't discourage MT Treasurer from saying in every post that Sununu is favored

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's probably a 52/48 Election, 278 EC Govs and a narrow H Majority, in a Pandemic Environment, D's aren't gonna win IA, OH, NC and FL Senate races looking at the polls today, but McCarthy nets 0/15 seats

D's need to temper their Expectations and HR 1/4 isn't passed

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 9-10, 1004 adults

Approve 55 (+1)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Approval by party:

D: 90 (+2)
R: 20 (+4)

This isn't the usual PowerPoint (which should be at https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/ipsos-core-political-survey-presidential-approval-tracker-06102021 but is missing).  The linked page includes a fairly nice graphical presentation that lets you view approval among various demographics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden wasn't at 60%, which was RV not LV poll, since the SOTU address because his weakness is DOJ defending Trump, border wall and raising taxes in a Pandemic

[Person Man]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 9-10, 1004 adults

Approve 55 (+1)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Approval by party:

D: 90 (+2)
R: 20 (+4)

This isn't the usual PowerPoint (which should be at https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/ipsos-core-political-survey-presidential-approval-tracker-06102021 but is missing).  The linked page includes a fairly nice graphical presentation that lets you view approval among various demographics.

This again builds on the narrative that Biden is sustaining just enough support to win. The problem that Democrats have is with downballot radicals destroying any possible coattails. Voters simply haven't come around on a lot of issues that Democrats need to work harder on distancing themselves on and have been ignoring other issues for way too long. The returns from being "the adult in the room" have essentially run out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a feeling we can get some split races, states that don't go the way they supposed to go starting with Cali recall, Newsom can lose to Cox and he can't do anything with the D supermajority State Legislature and can lose to Steyer or Villigosa next yr, then we have Whitmer and Hassan may lose but due to blue dogs we can win KS, OH, FL races and PA Gov may flip R at same time Sen flips D with Fetterman

States don't always go the same way they are supposed to go in midterms as in Prez Election and don't forget Fink in IA

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1403188775107411968

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since I have changed by Predictions so many times, I prefer the 60% Approvals better

[pbrower2a]

At any given time I have an incumbent pol's approval rating as his floor and 100-disapproval  as his ceiling. That can change over time, usually reflecting economic realities or events overseas (war and diplomacy). Scandals? It is surprising that those rarely have influence upon polling. The news media do not give sympathetic reports about politicians upon whom a scandal is about to break. Usually a politician dreading the exposure of a scandal already acts as if a cloud is over him; this already depresses approval ratings.

So if some Governor is taking bribes from out-of-state contractors for building roads or prisons, he likely exudes guilty feelings and deviousness that people can't quite place. Yhe political journalists have largely put the pieces together, and it is only a matter of time.... no journalist wishes to lavish praise upon someone about to be exposed as a crook.

OK, Trump seems to be an exception: some media still believe firmly in him, or at least so those media say. He did far better in the 2020 election than I expected, which was a Carter-like defeat. Personality cults work, but in Trump's case, not well enough.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan and Whitmer are now on the Endangered species list they both trail by six pts

But, again states vote different ways in Elections our blue dogs are much stronger than our secular candidates and they can keep the Rs from winning a red wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, pbower2A, your Whitmer can lose and so can Hassan, D's are in a sort of denial about Whitmer chances

Granholm almost lost to Devos in 2006, too, I remember

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes, pbower2A, your Whitmer can lose and so can Hassan, D's are in a sort of denial about Whitmer chances

Granholm almost lost to Devos in 2006, too, I remember

*Chef's kiss*

You're a true auteur, Olawakandi.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My point is there are more states Trending D, I get all my info on You tube but states don't have to vote line they D in Prez Elections ad do midterms we can get a 1976 map where Ryan, Sununu, Jackson, Kelly, Nelson are in the Senate together and if that happens, Sununu is gonna vote like a Dem

Same with Govs Kelly, Hobbs and even Breshar can beat the odds and win in R states while Rs win PA and MI and OR Gov races

That would be sweet but won't bolds well fur Hassan or Shapiro or Whitmer

Nikki Fried will be the next Gov of FL and Al Gross will beat Murkowski

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, my maps are dream maps for 2022, but Whitmer is endangered just like Pat Quinn was in 2014, and Sununu beating Hassan and running as a de facto Dem, can happen. No one expected Pat Quinn to lose either and Quinn almost won

The Sunbelt can trend more D than the Rust belt because blue dogs or moderates are bipartisan like Kelly, Hobbs and Jackson

We still have 500 days and keeping the South I'm D hands in the H is vital to keeping 218 seats, we can't let Mccarthy win, he has been bought and paid for by TRUMP again. At least McConnell has distanced himself