Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1396933645269495808

TITANIUM TILT D!

Would be nuts if it was a 52-47 election. That’s what I am naively predicting now and what the data suggested at the start of 2020 for 2020. I was predicting it wouldn’t hold one way or another.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

I have Biden from the mid forties to low fifties in approvals. It’s closer to split than 60/40 or 55/45, however, it seems to have picked up a little bit today.

I wonder if this is the temporary post mask mandates effect?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His polls do remain stable it's a 51/49 WI, PA, NH remain D while GA goes R in a Runoff Senate and H is Lean R anyways it's gonna be that way and won't change Govs 278

pbower2A knows this because the South is not a D institution especially in midterms like in ,2010/2014, that's why the Rs are favored in the H not because of North but because of FL and TX


I doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out and he still make rosey maps on FL and NC and those are going R anyways
FL and TX look ugly for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah unless we get solid polls from NC conforming that D's in fact can win the Senate race, it's not gonna go D and the same with FL, Biden is net positive in the state but those are tilting R right now, have you seen DeSantis APPROVALS, they're like 60%

It's a 303 map with possibilities of GA and or AZ with R SOS going Republican I'm the Senate and Mccarthy is set to gain 0/15 seats

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 22-25, 1500 adults including 1248 RV

Adults:

Approve 52 (+1)
Disapprove 39 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 29 (-1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+1)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 32 (-2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His approvals are reality time 52%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, May 18-24, 1316 adults (change from mid-April)

Adults:

Approve 49 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (-1)

Strongly approve 34 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-2)

GCB: D 49, R 40


RV (N not specified):

Approve 49 (-1)
Disapprove 42 (nc)

Strongly approve 35 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-1)

GCB: D 50, R 41

[Lief 🗽]

Biden surging in the highly regarded Rasmussen tracking poll!!

[pbrower2a]

Like pbower2A said in a Covid Environment like this don't take the Election for granted Rs are still the Favs to win the H, Biden is the most popular Prez but all we get are Approvals not polls from swing states like OH, NC or IA, and D's are 10 pts behind in FL

The Ds can resurrect the 278 blue wall with 60% Biden Approvals and still lose the H

By 2022 we had better be in a post-COVID-19 environment for Democrats to hold onto both Houses of Congress, and by 2024 America must be in a post-COVID-19 environment for Joe Biden to have any chance of re-election.

Unless someone has medical reasons or ethical () principles against inoculation, nobody has a real excuse against getting the inoculations. The people who most disapprove of getting inoculated or of mask mandates are in general political reactionaries who ordinarily support Republican politicians... deaths from COVID-19 could decide some House and even Senate races if close.   

[pbrower2a]

PPP just released a poll of Ohio concerning a gubernatorial race. Governor DeWine (R) is in trouble because he went along with the early shutdown of risky venues and behaviors as did Governor Whitmer (D) in Michigan. The letter after their names explains much. Democrats generally went along with mask mandates and the closure of high-risk activities, so Governor Whitmer will be at no risk of a primary challenge. Republicans opposed such, and could  defeat Governor DeWine in a primary challenge.

I have a reputation as a partisan hack, but politicians who do the right thing deserve to be re-elected and those who do not do the right thing deserve to lose.

Michigan is a toss-up state that generally votes D except when some fundamental is wrong for the Democrats. Ohio can vote D (Brown, 2006/2012/2018; Clinton 1992/96; Obama 2008/12).

PPP often releases parts of a poll on successive days, and this time we saw nothing about Presidential approval. I'm not saying that those who want to see Ohio filled in on the map will get their wish tomorrow, but I would not be surprised.  

Whoops! I misread the date -- and it was from two months ago. Dirty eyeglasses strike again! No approval poll of Biden has since followed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They have also emailed a poll that shows Marco Rubio only up 5 against Grayson

[Progressive Pessimist]

Quinnipiac, May 18-24, 1316 adults (change from mid-April)

Adults:

Approve 49 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (-1)

Strongly approve 34 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-2)

GCB: D 49, R 40


RV (N not specified):

Approve 49 (-1)
Disapprove 42 (nc)

Strongly approve 35 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-1)

GCB: D 50, R 41

F***ing Quinnipiac! This poll makes no sense in how relatively bad it is for Biden yet incredibly good for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot it is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PPP just released a poll of Ohio concerning a gubernatorial race. Governor DeWine (R) is in trouble because he went along with the early shutdown of risky venues and behaviors as did Governor Whitmer (D) in Michigan. The letter after their names explains much. Democrats generally went along with mask mandates and the closure of high-risk activities, so Governor Whitmer will be at no risk of a primary challenge. Republicans opposed such, and could  defeat Governor DeWine in a primary challenge.

I have a reputation as a partisan hack, but politicians who do the right thing deserve to be re-elected and those who do not do the right thing deserve to lose.

Michigan is a toss-up state that generally votes D except when some fundamental is wrong for the Democrats. Ohio can vote D (Brown, 2006/2012/2018; Clinton 1992/96; Obama 2008/12).

PPP often releases parts of a poll on successive days, and this time we saw nothing about Presidential approval. I'm not saying that those who want to see Ohio filled in on the map will get their wish tomorrow, but I would not be surprised.  

It is a 303 EC map because we are still in a Covid Environment and we don't have polls from KS, OH, IA, NC and FL, but as of today the H probably narrowly goes to Rs and Senate is 51/48 and GA goes to a Runoff but the it all depends on the Recovery in next year's Election

It's still shocking that they're not giving us polls in those states are mention they keep giving us NY and CA Recall numbers, if Newsom was recalled, Tom Steyer would win in 2022/ but the voters want Newsom whom didn't give 600 to everyone

That's why under 30 don't vote due to fact NY and Cali are keeping corrupt Govs

That's why it's a 303 map not a 415 or 375 map, they throw away their VBM ballots

[Virginiá]

I think it's worth mentioning that Obama's >60% approval ratings (via Gallup) at the beginning of his 1st term bounced around within the lower 60s right up until June, where it began a slow descent through the end of the year, still positive but less so.

There's two ways to look at Biden:

1. Trump was uniquely disliked as a new president, and his brash nature and aggressively partisan behavior prevented a honeymoon altogether, but the idea itself of a honeymoon has not quite been ended due to polarization. This would suggest Biden's approvals will tip into the negatives by late 2022, if not earlier, as indies start souring on him.

2. The Trump era has ushered in a new level of polarization and Biden's consistently positive approval ratings ~4 months in show he has a durable appeal to more voters than recent presidents have had, and the end of COVID, rebounding economy, a large stimulus along with visible progress on things like infrastructure will help Biden maintain positive approval ratings.

I really don't know which one sounds more likely. His presidency is still too young to say. I think we'd have to wait at least until the end of the year to see how it has trended.

Regarding 2022, best to keep in mind that Obama's approval ratings weren't terrible in 2010 - plurality disapproved, but only by a small margin. That was still enough to cause a pretty big wave against Democrats, obviously compounded by the Democratic Party's reliance on holding seats/legislatures/governorships in so many districts/states that had long been voting Republican for president and simply hadn't yet fully switched parties downballot. In my opinion, Biden's approvals need to be at least as positive as they are now to give Democrats a chance at keeping the US House (538: 54.2 - 40.4). Might be able to afford a couple more points disapproving, but I think the 54% approve is critical.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Economy is gonna get much stronger in 2022 and a 303 map is the base for this Election, but unfortunately for D's, WI, PA, NH, AZ and GA don't have the EC strength that OH, IA, FL and NC does.

If D's want to hold the House in an improving Economy they must competete in OH, IA, NC and FL, and 52 seats is still relying on Tester, Sinema and Manchin to break Filibuster.

So, the expanded 375 map without TX is the best interest even if they fail

But, as of today, it's a 303 map , but polls show weakness in OH due to a blk county Mahoning County changing party stripes from R to D

[pbrower2a]

We are in a war-like economy, with COVID-19 becoming the abominable enemy. With that virus off the scene, America will go back to more of a free-market economy except with less reliance upon ultra-cheap labor. We are going to see some short-lived inflation as the result of shortages, but those will fade. People can expect that dining out will not be as cheap as it used to be.

We will go back to a more free-market economy after COVID-19 abates, and inflation is often a sign of deviation from free-market economics. The only irreversible change that I can see is more of a welfare state. Turning poor people into consumers is one way to expand the economy and alleviate its regional differences of wealth and poverty.

The gains will be for working people, especially in what have been low-paying jobs as cleaners, restaurant workers, and retail clerks. People overworked and underpaid are less efficient than you might think, and employee turnover will be lower.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Being a nurse has replaced Doctor or Teaching jobs for females and more males are going to Law school and becoming Bankruptcy/Debt Consolidation lawyers there is hope for this Economy but yeah, Factory work is mainly the job that is hiring in this Covid Recession and it's very difficult to work in a factory because everything is based on speed and timing even breaks and lunches and you have to keep up with a quota

Security is a bad profession too, it's an on call job and sometimes you have to travel very far even with a car it's bad. It's full time or part time

Don't forget you have to wear a mask while working at all times

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still no polls in IA, OH, FL or NC, and Abby FINKEAUAR just announced that she is running, we must ask ourselves why no polls because we are probably gonna have a 303 map in a Recession, Rs narrowly fav to win H, 278 Govs and D's win a 51/48 Senate map, with GA as a Runoff, since RGovs are snatching Unemployment away as fast as they can

I am not on Unemployment but let's remember it's a savings account that states use to balance their budgets it's not free money.

If there isn't any savings account you can't balance the budget especially with 300 going extra that we never gave out to Unemployed. Obama gave 50.00

That's why it's adjudicated when you are laid off, if DGovs were installed they would give money back to Unemployment, the R Govs know what they are doing in addition to voter suppression

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 26-27, 1005 adults

Approve 52 (-4)
Disapprove 44 (+5)

Approval by party (no disapprovals):

D: 85 (-5)
I: 48 (-6)
R: 15 (-5)

This poll throws an occasional outlier, and I suspect this is one of them.

[It’s so Joever]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 26-27, 1005 adults

Approve 52 (-4)
Disapprove 54 (+5)

Approval by party (no disapprovals):

D: 85 (-5)
I: 48 (-6)
R: 15 (-5)

This poll throws an occasional outlier, and I suspect this is one of them.

You know it’s bad when Biden can’t even win over half of the 106% of Americans surveyed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 26-27, 1005 adults

Approve 52 (-4)
Disapprove 44 (+5)

Approval by party (no disapprovals):

D: 85 (-5)
I: 48 (-6)
R: 15 (-5)

This poll throws an occasional outlier, and I suspect this is one of them.

You know it’s bad when Biden can’t even win over half of the 106% of Americans surveyed.

:-P Fixed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has done a good job, Biden cannot fix the Covid crisis but he can get everyone vaccinated. We are in a new normal


You know Covid and Wildfires are caused by Fracking and oil drilling since Ronald Reagan fracking the Environment has gone down and this the result of it, no rain on the WC due to no Hurricanes anymore in Mexico all the thunderstorms migrate to Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Japan and Hawaii

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not saying that we will get 56 seats but Rubio is only 5 pts ahead of Grayson, if the Rs don't pass voting rights in Fall, Burr, Toomey, Portman, Daines, Ernst, Rubio and Romney, Collins and Murkowski, the Rs in OH, IA, NC and FL in Sen not Gov race where our H races are, will lose anyways along with WI, PA, NH and GA

Ron Johnson is DONE

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, May 22-25, 1003 adults (1-month change)

Approve 54 (nc)
Disapprove 42 (-1)

Strongly approve 30 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 33 (-2)

Biden's approval has increased on every issue polled in both surveys:

Coronavirus pandemic 64 (+6)
Environment 54 (no prior)
Health care 53 (+5)
Economy 51 (+3)
Race relations 51 (no prior)
Foreign policy 43 (+1)
Border security 40 (+5)
Immigration 38 (+4)