Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Sir Mohamed]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's be clear, again here, Trump near Election time did alot by getting the vaccine, he lost his pts by not memorializing the dead Covid victims, Biden held two memorials in 6 mnths in office, Trump the days after he lost the Election said how good the Stock Market was, that's why Trump lost

Trump didn't bother to attend neither of the memorials and stayed in FL

[Bootes Void]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

That's not really something that could easily change , people naturally think that's dem are better on domestic issues(not crime however) but republicans are better on national security/ foreign issues which explains the subpar ratings on Russia/China.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't subpar on China and Russia, the reason why Rs have a chance in 2022 is the 30T dollar debt that was owed to China is due to Trump and the Stimulus payments, Rs don't care about the Chinese debt we owed during Trump or Bush W, but cares about it when a D is I'm WH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TEXAS

Governor Greg Abbott receives a mixed job approval rating as 48 percent of Texas voters approve of the job he's doing and 46 percent disapprove. This is little changed from his 48 - 44 percent job approval rating in July of 2020. Today's disapproval rating is the highest for Abbott since being elected in 2018. Other job approvals are mostly mixed...

Texas State Legislature: 41 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove, with 12 percent not offering an opinion;
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton: 41 percent approve, 39 percent disapprove, with 20 percent not offering an opinion;
Sen. Ted Cruz: 46 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
Sen. John Cornyn: 41 percent approve, 42 percent disapprove, with 17 percent not offering an opinion;
President Joe Biden: 45 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion.

45-50 in a state that the Democratic Party has not won in a Presidential election since 1976 is better than one might expect of a President not in campaign mode. Trump won the state by 6%, so draw your conclusions about how Texas is headed. Republicans may need to do voter suppression to win the state in 2024 to keep a hold on power. Approvals for a President typically slide downward as the campaign recedes... which has been true of every Presidential term since  Dubya in 2001. We know what happened in September, so I do not expect anything like that.

It is far too early to have much of an idea of how the 2024 Presidential race will turn out, but on the whole, a state in which the incumbent President is down only 45-50 is winnable.

Try figuring this out:

Texas voters approve of the way Biden is handling the coronavirus 58 - 37 percent, and approve of the way Abbott is handling it 53 - 45 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3812

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

Five months after inauguration, an incumbent whose approval numbers are where the voting results were is doing fine. Not everything succeeds. Typically the entertainment media lampoon high-profile incumbents. Well, the lampooning is still heavily the ex-President and some Republican pols. In need give no names.

[/quote]

Lol D's aren't winning TX without HR 1 and Beto hasn't even Ann he is running, DeSantis is up 61-39 so much for Crist and Fried, it's early, but DeSantis isn't losing without a scandal

D's plus 9 on Generic ballot poll all the races instead of Approvals, but they won't

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

I'm not one to reassure people very often, but Biden being at least somewhat popular on the economy, and very popular with the pandemic handling (though both go hand-in-hand, really) are just about the only numbers that matter in elections anymore. 2024 is still ways away but if the ever-important "direction of the country" number is positive by then and continues being perceived popularly on the economy, and with approvals overall; I think he'll be favored for re-election.

[Mr.Phips]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

I'm not one to reassure people very often, but Biden being at least somewhat popular on the economy, and very popular with the pandemic handling (though both go hand-in-hand, really) are just about the only numbers that matter in elections anymore. 2024 is still ways away but if the ever-important "direction of the country" number is positive by then and continues being perceived popularly on the economy, and with approvals overall; I think he'll be favored for re-election.

2022 is all that matters right now.

[Beet]

Biden's immigration numbers have been improving since late April.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 23-24, 1005 adults

Approve 53 (+1)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Biden is now back at a net +10.5% in the 538 all-polls average, after briefly dipping below +10 during the past week.

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS

Governor Greg Abbott receives a mixed job approval rating as 48 percent of Texas voters approve of the job he's doing and 46 percent disapprove. This is little changed from his 48 - 44 percent job approval rating in July of 2020. Today's disapproval rating is the highest for Abbott since being elected in 2018. Other job approvals are mostly mixed...

Texas State Legislature: 41 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove, with 12 percent not offering an opinion;
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton: 41 percent approve, 39 percent disapprove, with 20 percent not offering an opinion;
Sen. Ted Cruz: 46 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
Sen. John Cornyn: 41 percent approve, 42 percent disapprove, with 17 percent not offering an opinion;
President Joe Biden: 45 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion.

45-50 in a state that the Democratic Party has not won in a Presidential election since 1976 is better than one might expect of a President not in campaign mode. Trump won the state by 6%, so draw your conclusions about how Texas is headed. Republicans may need to do voter suppression to win the state in 2024 to keep a hold on power. Approvals for a President typically slide downward as the campaign recedes... which has been true of every Presidential term since  Dubya in 2001. We know what happened in September, so I do not expect anything like that.

It is far too early to have much of an idea of how the 2024 Presidential race will turn out, but on the whole, a state in which the incumbent President is down only 45-50 is winnable.

Try figuring this out:

Texas voters approve of the way Biden is handling the coronavirus 58 - 37 percent, and approve of the way Abbott is handling it 53 - 45 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3812

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

Five months after inauguration, an incumbent whose approval numbers are where the voting results were is doing fine. Not everything succeeds. Typically the entertainment media lampoon high-profile incumbents. Well, the lampooning is still heavily the ex-President and some Republican pols. In need give no names.

Lol D's aren't winning TX without HR 1 and Beto hasn't even Ann he is running, DeSantis is up 61-39 so much for Crist and Fried, it's early, but DeSantis isn't losing without a scandal

D's plus 9 on Generic ballot poll all the races instead of Approvals, but they won't
[/quote]

No "LOL" about HR 1. The GOP machine will do everything possible to "fix" things for Republicans, even doing legislative votes to nullify popular votes. Of course there is only one precedent for the state legislature determining how a vote goes for the state's electoral votes and that was Colorado in 1876, which was a state only three months before the 1876 Presidential election and was ill-organized for an election of any kind. That is the last time in which a state legislature chose the Presidential electors, and that was not a nullification of a popular vote.

Donald Trump tried to get state officials to nullify the popular vote in their states, but it did not work in 2020. State governments doing such on their own initiative do so at grave risk of civil disorder. I can also imagine this happening for Senate elections.

Texas is of course not the only such state where this is possible.    

[Person Man]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 23-24, 1005 adults

Approve 53 (+1)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Biden is now back at a net +10.5% in the 538 all-polls average, after briefly dipping below +10 during the past week.

My guess is that people finally priced in all of the "inflation is coming" stuff. Inflation is probably going back to where it was for most of the 20th century.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's the same Approvals all the time 52/48 SEN 304 blue wall and Govs and H up for Grabs as long as there is Covid nothing is gonna change from now until Election day

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No more Biden hack numbers IPSOS POLLS THE GENERIC BALLOT IS PLUS 4 RIGHT WHERE EVERYONE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE A 52/48 SEN AND RS AS SLIGHT FAVS IN HOUSE PENDING REDISTRICTING

BUT IF DS NET 2 SEATS ITS PROBABLY A 3.1% NPVI DEPENDING ON HOW MANY STATES SPLIT THEIR VOTES FOR H and Senate

The Environment can change next yr in a wave if Covid is Eradicated or in 2024/ and we are out of masks

But if it's not D's are in trouble in the H without VR and DC Statehood from passing

A 53/39% APPROVAL RATING IS EXACTLY WHERE BIDEN POLLS WERE AFTER ELECTION NIGHT

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

I'm not one to reassure people very often, but Biden being at least somewhat popular on the economy, and very popular with the pandemic handling (though both go hand-in-hand, really) are just about the only numbers that matter in elections anymore. 2024 is still ways away but if the ever-important "direction of the country" number is positive by then and continues being perceived popularly on the economy, and with approvals overall; I think he'll be favored for re-election.

2022 is all that matters right now.

Of course. Though Biden's approvals may factor into that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a theory why Whitmer may lose, in 2018, she ran with Debbie Stabenow, at least she is level pegging with Rs in MU, but there isn't any Senate race in 2022, and Cobeck isn't James or Craig, James or Craig knew she was vulnerable

Also, in OR, Knute almost won in 2018, states don't alwayss follow the same voting behavior as the Prez race especially in Midterms

Hopefully we can net some Sunbelt states even if we lose OR and MI but that will be a 1976 or 1996 non traditional map, which I like

[pbrower2a]

I have a theory why Whitmer may lose, in 2018, she ran with Debbie Stabenow, at least she is level pegging with Rs in MU, but there isn't any Senate race in 2022, and Cobeck isn't James or Craig, James or Craig knew she was vulnerable

Also, in OR, Knute almost won in 2018, states don't alwayss follow the same voting behavior as the Prez race especially in Midterms

Hopefully we can net some Sunbelt states even if we lose OR and MI but that will be a 1976 or 1996 non traditional map, which I like

1996 -- Bill Clinton won states that no Republican nominee has since lost -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia. These states fit the cultural pattern of what David Hackett-Fischer calls "Backwoods" America, including the Ozarks and Appalachia (which are very much alike). Trump won all of those states by 10% or more. These states went R about as Southern white Presbyterians went Southern Baptist.

I hate to describe any part of America in such stark terms, but this is now the Part of America in which the darkest traits of American political life most prevail -- xenophobia, superstition, low educational levels, economic fear, and tolerance for authoritarian leadership. It is hard to believe that this part of America had such political stars as Harry Truman, Wendell Ford, Jay Rockefeller, Bill Clinton and Al Gore... but that is over. Admirable as such figures might be, none of them could now be elected in this part of the country. This area is the part of the country in which an out-and-out fascist could win a Senate seat or a Governorship.

This area was relatively liberal on economic issues due to the New Deal, but as the New Deal faded as a memory this area became the most reactionary part of America. Yes, it is a broad brush to fault Southern Baptist churches, especially since Jimmy Carter is the most famous living Southern Baptist and a wonderful person... but the bulk seems to have continued the austerity of (Calvinist) Presbyterianism while losing any pretense of conscience or mercy.  Yes, there are some liberal oases in the Mountain South, like Louisville, Asheville, Roanoke, Huntsville, Birmingham, and Nashville... and don't forget Atlanta. This is the part of America in which people are most likely to say that their ancestry is "American". If you are at all liberal or have cultural ties to any part of the world outside America other than Great Britain, you likely will not be comfortable in rural areas. On the other hand, people from outside the region have done practically no good for the Mountain South for a very long time, so the feeling is mutual.

The "Mountain South" is even more reactionary than the Deep South. where "race" used to determine who steps on others and who gets stepped on. Politics cleaves largely on ethnic lines. The Deep South has far more blacks than does the Mountain South. It is basically southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia; the whole of South Carolina; and northern Florida. Louisiana still has a sharp divide between the Cajun/Creole southern half that has cultural ties to France and the Backwoods North. If it is ethnic, then it does not fully belong in the Mountain South.             

[pbrower2a]

How long has it been since a state last voted for a Democratic nominee for President?

2020
2012
2008
1996 (white)
1992
1976
1964
* went for Trump twice by 10% or more

States and districts seem to have voted largely on demographic reality or cultural orientation. Something strange would have to happen for any state to swing from being 10% R to even being close in 2024 or even 2028. This could be either a catastrophic misfit as a nominee of the Republican Party, a political disaster that gravely discredits the Republican nominee, or a change in the cultural values of a state.  (Here I speak only of the Republican Party messing up. I am not saying that the Democrat couldn't endure a political calamity that allows the Republican nominee to win a landslide in the electoral vote. Any state with an asterisk has practically no chance of going to the Democrat in 2024 barring something catastrophic, like the Republican nominee being exposed as a child molester.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In the map in the preceding post, Wisconsin should not have an asterisk. 

[pbrower2a]

In the map in the preceding post, Wisconsin should not have an asterisk. 

Correction  made.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not looking good in FL Rubio and DeSantis are up 60/40%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's worth noting again Biden has the same Approvals as he had on Election night 51/49 and it was 51/46% Senate, if the Election were held today, it would be an RH, 52(48 Senate and a 278 Gov map, not sure about KS, AZ or GA

304 blue wall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How long has it been since a state last voted for a Democratic nominee for President?

2020
2012
2008
1996 (white)
1992
1976
1964
* went for Trump twice by 10% or more

States and districts seem to have voted largely on demographic reality or cultural orientation. Something strange would have to happen for any state to swing from being 10% R to even being close in 2024 or even 2028. This could be either a catastrophic misfit as a nominee of the Republican Party, a political disaster that gravely discredits the Republican nominee, or a change in the cultural values of a state.  (Here I speak only of the Republican Party messing up. I am not saying that the Democrat couldn't endure a political calamity that allows the Republican nominee to win a landslide in the electoral vote. Any state with an asterisk has practically no chance of going to the Democrat in 2024 barring something catastrophic, like the Republican nominee being exposed as a child molester.

This map would be definitely possible in 2024 Prez Election, not in 2022, because we aren't yet out of Covid and lower turnout

That map in 2024 can get us the House back in 2024


Realistically the D's are looking at a 304 in 2022 because Biden isn't investigating Trump for Obstructing Justice, due to Hunter Biden and Ukraine he is going after Trump and the Rs on Jan 6th due to Insurrectionists, which can be Bidens undoing, BIDEN CAN BE IN HOT WATER ON HIS OWN WITH A SELECT COMMITTEE ON HUNTER Biden SHOULD RS TAKE THE H, DS NEED A ROBUST RECOVERY BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION TO AVOID R TAKEOVER OF H

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 26-29, 1500 adults including 1290 RV


Adults:

Approve 48 (-2)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 24 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (+3)


RV:

Approve 50 (-2)
Disapprove 46 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 34 (+2)


FWIW, there's a distinct difference in party ID composition between the two samples:

Last week: D 537, R 389, I 389 (41%/30%/30%)

This week: D 516, R 427, I 412 (38%/32%/30%)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Approvals are slipping, the Rs are gonna takeover the H, TOO BAD FOR HUNTER BIDEN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you remember before Insurrectionists, Trump in many Rassy polls were at 48/50% Approvals, the Stimulus checks have run dry