Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[LimoLiberal]

Did Georgia just stop counting votes?

Given that the SOS had to be evacuated from the State Capitol, after rioters stormed the building, I wouldn't be surprised if they're taking a recess.

Ah. I assumed the events of today might be the reason.

[President Johnson]

Per CNN, Ossoff now ahead by 24,000 votes. 50.3% to 49.7%, out of recount territory.

[AndyHogan14]

NBC just called it for Ossoff while Biden is speaking.

[Torrain]

Did Georgia just stop counting votes?

Given that the SOS had to be evacuated from the State Capitol, after rioters stormed the building, I wouldn't be surprised if they're taking a recess.

Ah. I assumed the events of today might be the reason.

Ironically, the race has just been called.

https://twitter.com/Lauren_V_Egan/status/1346926036899033088

[Gracile]

NYT also just declared Ossoff the winner (he now leads 50.28-49.72 in their count - which is above the recount threshold).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NYT also just declared Ossoff the winner (he now leads 50.28-49.72 in their count - which is above the recount threshold).

And they now project Dems take control of the Senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ironically, this thread is at it's emptiest when the media officially projects that these races will flip the Senate to Democrats

[Hope For A New Era]

Ironically, this thread is at it's emptiest when the media officially projects that these races will flip the Senate to Democrats

I think we’re all a bit focused on something else at the moment.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

Didn't Loeffler and Perdue improve on Trump's numbers in counties like Cherokee and Forsyth?  It just wasn't enough given what happened elsewhere in the state.

Biden won Gwinett by 18, while Warnock won it by >20. Most of the counties where Loeffler significantly underperformed Trump were rural, particularly SW GA.

[Oryxslayer]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

Didn't Loeffler and Perdue improve on Trump's numbers in counties like Cherokee and Forsyth?  It just wasn't enough given what happened elsewhere in the state.

Biden won Gwinett by 18, while Warnock won it by >20. Most of the counties where Loeffler significantly underperformed Trump were rural, particularly SW GA.

Ingore percentages, look at raw votes comparisons. Larger dropoff from 2020 in the rurals, increasing in those areas with larger GOP loyalties. The GOP indulged Trump's conspiracies' and a percentage of their loyal voters withdrew from the electoral process.

[wbrocks67]

Few more votes in:

Jon Ossoff 2,225,715 (50.31%)
David Perdue 2,198,640 (49.69%)
= Ossoff +27,075 (0.62%)

Raphael Warnock 2,244,457 (50.73%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,179,969 (49.27%)
= Warnock +64,488 (1.46%)

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

You hit the nail on the head--traditionally conservative. The suburbs used to be conservative, but in today's alignment, many suburbs can no longer be considered that.

For one, they're no longer heterogenously white, in fact there are lots of black, hispanic, and asian suburbs now. Even in white suburbs, there is an increased number of minorities. The people whose parents or grandparents once moved to the suburbs to get away from minorities are now living amongst them.

On gun control, suburbanites in the past may have liked guns as a means of protecting their McMansions from the unwashed hordes. But there has been a change in attitude since Columbine and Sandy Hook, I'm sure you can imagine why.

Suburbs are also densifying, which is a sign of left-leaning politics. Also, young people who may not be able to afford to live downtown in places like LA, Atlanta, or Chicago are moving to places like Orange, Gwinnett, and Will counties. Finally, with college education becoming an increasing dividing line in American politics, college-educated suburbanites are a more liberal bloc.

Put it all together, and the traditionally conservative suburbs are largely trending to the Democrats because they're more liberal. There are a few exceptions like Staten Island, but broadly speaking, this trend follows in most major metro areas.

I doubt that the electorate has diversified that much since Nov 3rd. I'm asking why Loeffler and Perdue underperformed Trump if Trump supposedly cost them the run-offs.

[Asta]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

Yeah Democrats are going to lose.
They aren’t even punching back at these Warnock attacks enough.
Schumer should lose his job.

Well those two races are safe R now.
This is the worst news I have woken up to this month.
I was hoping Trump would lash out but nope.

The Democrats won't win these Seats - Period!

Biden has realized this already by thus far nominating "Safe Picks" to his Cabinet who can sail through the Senate without too much Republican Opposition. That tells me that he doesn't believe that they will win both Seats.

Every poll has shown D's ahead 50 for Ossoff and WARNOCK and 45 for Perdue and Loeffler and Perdue just left the campaign trail due to Covid.

All the Ds have to keep it close this is GA not a blue wall state and they can win, we can't afford to let Mcconnell stay and he already obstructed the 2K Stimulus and he is only doing it and Ron Johnson only due to fact Biden is gonna be Prez

Every Poll showed Andrew Gillum beating Ron DeSantis in 2018 and Warnock is a far-worse Candidate then Gillum ever will be.

Frankly, Warnock is doomed.

https://freebeacon.com/2020-election/camper-recounts-abuse-at-warnock-church-camp/?fbclid=IwAR3LN6zxGJRCbMrI_uI22lSnMUg5hxY13XxWZSyRtEIXTrpEHHuvu5g2jn0
https://twitter.com/AnOpenSecret/status/1343672938927685633
https://nypost.com/2020/12/28/warnock-church-camper-opens-up-about-camp-abuse/

Elite candidate David Perdue is about to beat the breaks off of Jon Ossoff tonight.

This is going to suck. And by suck I mean really suck

Can we start a poorly aging quote train for you like the one Woodbury had? You really deserve it.

We get it. I was relentless about Georgia in November and was wrong by a hair.
This is much much much different ballgame.
Name a (reasonable) number... Venmo wager.

Tonight’s not happening. The cult will prevail, evil over decency wins tonight I’m afraid

Updated CNN exit polls...  dreadful (someone back me up since everyone will roll there eyes at me)

Sources: MillennialModerate is beside himself. Driving around downtown Boston begging (thru texts) Warnock's family for address to Raphael's home

This isn’t over. Pages I’m seeing still shows Dems behind

And if Osoff doesn’t win it’s worthless.

Why is everyone celebrating? The GOP are still well ahead
Or am I missing something?

DeKalb is going to wipe that out

Mark my words this isn’t even close to over

I’m shocked we’re grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.
Shocked I tell you.
Where are the posts who mocked me?

LOL, the gap is 19k.
OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.
The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I’ll change my name to Millennial Markey if the Dems win both seats.
It’s not happening.. & tbh I can’t image ticket splitting is all that likely either

Dem collapse

Perdue wins by 5-10k votes

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

Get ready for the slaughtering.

[wbrocks67]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

[It’s so Joever]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

Yeah Democrats are going to lose.
They aren’t even punching back at these Warnock attacks enough.
Schumer should lose his job.

Well those two races are safe R now.
This is the worst news I have woken up to this month.
I was hoping Trump would lash out but nope.

The Democrats won't win these Seats - Period!

Biden has realized this already by thus far nominating "Safe Picks" to his Cabinet who can sail through the Senate without too much Republican Opposition. That tells me that he doesn't believe that they will win both Seats.

Every poll has shown D's ahead 50 for Ossoff and WARNOCK and 45 for Perdue and Loeffler and Perdue just left the campaign trail due to Covid.

All the Ds have to keep it close this is GA not a blue wall state and they can win, we can't afford to let Mcconnell stay and he already obstructed the 2K Stimulus and he is only doing it and Ron Johnson only due to fact Biden is gonna be Prez

Every Poll showed Andrew Gillum beating Ron DeSantis in 2018 and Warnock is a far-worse Candidate then Gillum ever will be.

Frankly, Warnock is doomed.

https://freebeacon.com/2020-election/camper-recounts-abuse-at-warnock-church-camp/?fbclid=IwAR3LN6zxGJRCbMrI_uI22lSnMUg5hxY13XxWZSyRtEIXTrpEHHuvu5g2jn0
https://twitter.com/AnOpenSecret/status/1343672938927685633
https://nypost.com/2020/12/28/warnock-church-camper-opens-up-about-camp-abuse/

Elite candidate David Perdue is about to beat the breaks off of Jon Ossoff tonight.

This is going to suck. And by suck I mean really suck

Can we start a poorly aging quote train for you like the one Woodbury had? You really deserve it.

We get it. I was relentless about Georgia in November and was wrong by a hair.
This is much much much different ballgame.
Name a (reasonable) number... Venmo wager.

Tonight’s not happening. The cult will prevail, evil over decency wins tonight I’m afraid

Updated CNN exit polls...  dreadful (someone back me up since everyone will roll there eyes at me)

Sources: MillennialModerate is beside himself. Driving around downtown Boston begging (thru texts) Warnock's family for address to Raphael's home

This isn’t over. Pages I’m seeing still shows Dems behind

And if Osoff doesn’t win it’s worthless.

Why is everyone celebrating? The GOP are still well ahead
Or am I missing something?

DeKalb is going to wipe that out

Mark my words this isn’t even close to over

I’m shocked we’re grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.
Shocked I tell you.
Where are the posts who mocked me?

LOL, the gap is 19k.
OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.
The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I’ll change my name to Millennial Markey if the Dems win both seats.
It’s not happening.. & tbh I can’t image ticket splitting is all that likely either

Dem collapse

Perdue wins by 5-10k votes

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

Get ready for the slaughtering.

The stimulus changed a lot.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/gilbertjasono/status/1346817607840772099

[wbrocks67]

A few more:

Jon Ossoff 2,227,111 (50.32%)
David Perdue 2,198,911 (49.68%)
= Ossoff +28,200 (0.64%)

Raphael Warnock 2,245,870 (50.74%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,180,220 (49.26%)
= Warnock +65,650 (1.48%)

[MillennialModerate]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government, my desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end. Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government.

My desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end.

Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

[Holmes]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government, my desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end. Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

Reverse psychology.... ugh your mind. So powerful.

[VAR]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government, my desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end. Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

Change your display name to "Millennial Markey" and maybe we'll forgive you

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/paulesq711/status/1346934259924217857

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

late ballots push Ossoff over 60% in Gwinnett

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

You hit the nail on the head--traditionally conservative. The suburbs used to be conservative, but in today's alignment, many suburbs can no longer be considered that.

For one, they're no longer heterogenously white, in fact there are lots of black, hispanic, and asian suburbs now. Even in white suburbs, there is an increased number of minorities. The people whose parents or grandparents once moved to the suburbs to get away from minorities are now living amongst them.

On gun control, suburbanites in the past may have liked guns as a means of protecting their McMansions from the unwashed hordes. But there has been a change in attitude since Columbine and Sandy Hook, I'm sure you can imagine why.

Suburbs are also densifying, which is a sign of left-leaning politics. Also, young people who may not be able to afford to live downtown in places like LA, Atlanta, or Chicago are moving to places like Orange, Gwinnett, and Will counties. Finally, with college education becoming an increasing dividing line in American politics, college-educated suburbanites are a more liberal bloc.

Put it all together, and the traditionally conservative suburbs are largely trending to the Democrats because they're more liberal. There are a few exceptions like Staten Island, but broadly speaking, this trend follows in most major metro areas.

I doubt that the electorate has diversified that much since Nov 3rd. I'm asking why Loeffler and Perdue underperformed Trump if Trump supposedly cost them the run-offs.

Ah fair enough. I'm generally of the belief that Republicans usually do better with Trump on the ballot, because he turns out low-propensity voters. Exit polls show that Trump voters were less likely to turn out for the special election than Biden voters, which had a predictable effect.

[libertpaulian]

Gwinnett is the new Fairfax.