Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Adam Griffin]

Just gonna mention: high turnout in hardcore D counties isn't necessarily automatic "good news" (though statistically speaking, it is probably a slight benefit to Ds; just not the overwhelming advantage some might think). If Dekalb breaks its ED raw vote from November and its ED vote is 30 points to the right of EV just like other parts of the state might be, that's still bad from a relative/margin standpoint.

[It’s so Joever]

We're in for a long night, folks.

So...every election night?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just gonna mention: high turnout in hardcore D counties isn't necessarily automatic "good news" (though statistically speaking, it is probably a slight benefit to Ds; just not the overwhelming advantage some might think). If Dekalb breaks its ED raw vote from November and its ED vote is 30 points to the right of EV just like other parts of the state might be, that's still bad from a relative/margin standpoint.

But even if the margin is smaller your still netting more votes out of the county.

That's actually my prediction; Atlanta margins will be underwhelming but high turnout makes up for it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Just gonna mention: high turnout in hardcore D counties isn't necessarily automatic "good news" (though statistically speaking, it is probably a slight benefit to Ds; just not the overwhelming advantage some might think). If Dekalb breaks its ED raw vote from November and its ED vote is 30 points to the right of EV just like other parts of the state might be, that's still bad from a relative/margin standpoint.

I can’t wait for the Dekalb Kerry-Obama-Obama-Hillary-Biden voters to have a late turnout surge for David Perdue because of his smile

[redjohn]

So we're all in agreement that we won't peek at results until 12 AM when the needle will give us an actual picture of the race?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So we're all in agreement that we won't peek at results until 12 AM when the needle will give us an actual picture of the race?

Definitely.  (12am GMT that is)

[Xing]

So we're all in agreement that we won't peek at results until 12 AM when the needle will give us an actual picture of the race?

Welcome to Atlas!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just gonna mention: high turnout in hardcore D counties isn't necessarily automatic "good news" (though statistically speaking, it is probably a slight benefit to Ds; just not the overwhelming advantage some might think). If Dekalb breaks its ED raw vote from November and its ED vote is 30 points to the right of EV just like other parts of the state might be, that's still bad from a relative/margin standpoint.

I can’t wait for the Dekalb Kerry-Obama-Obama-Hillary-Biden voters to have a late turnout surge for David Perdue because of his smile

Nobody genuinely believes Perdue has a shot in Fulton county, but the number of votes Democrats net out of the county really matters, especially as the state's largest county population-wise and it's heavily D lean.

[MT Treasurer]

My head still tells me that Perdue and Loeffler will narrowly win, but I’m going to lower my expectations and mentally prepare for a Warnock/Ossoff win (and by a 'surprisingly wide margin' as well), honestly. People here are selective with the tweets they’re posting and obviously promoting their narrative, but it’s best not to get your hopes up too much in a race/state like this.

[Woody]

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My head still tells me that Perdue and Loeffler will narrowly win, but I’m going to lower my expectations and mentally prepare for a Warnock/Ossoff win (and by a 'surprisingly wide margin' as well), honestly. People here are selective with the tweets they’re posting and obviously promoting their narrative, but it’s best not to get your hopes up too much in a race/state like this.

I'm actually doing the opposite right now.

[new_patomic]

The real question is if Ossoff/Warnock win, how quickly do Republicans drop the run off system.

[Pollster]

It is important to remember that the 5pm exit poll does not include the voters who cast ballots in the final two hours of voting, which can be consequential in a race anticipated to be as close as this one.

[brucejoel99]

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

Promise?

[QAnonKelly]

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

Don’t let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya.

[Woody]

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

Promise?

Sure. Take a screencap right now.

[randomusername]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1346571787618967554

"But muh cancel culture ruining America"

[VAR]

Well, Woodbury should technically be banned before polls close-

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422062.0

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

But I thought we were best friends....... I was so happy you added me as a buddy after all of these years. Who will I find to replace you?

[Sol]

I am saying it right now: If either Ossoff or Warnock wins, I'll leave the forum for 1 solid year.

Suddenly I wish I phonebanked more.

[WD]

Wouldn’t it be something if:

1. Ossoff and Warnock win
2. The GOP repeals the runoff rule
3. A Democrat beats Kemp in 2022 with 49%

[Xing]

Wouldn’t it be something if:

1. Ossoff and Warnock win
2. The GOP repeals the runoff rule
3. A Democrat beats Kemp in 2022 with 49%

If Ossoff beats Perdue, I already have my response to "but Perdue got more votes in the first round!!! So unfair and undemocratic!!!!" prepared:

"I agree, Mary Landrieu must be seated now."

[7,052,770]

The real question is if Ossoff/Warnock win, how quickly do Republicans drop the run off system.

They should move to Alaska-style top 4 IRV and never have a runoff issue again.

[randomusername]

Wouldn’t it be something if:

1. Ossoff and Warnock win
2. The GOP repeals the runoff rule
3. A Democrat beats Kemp in 2022 with 49%

Let's see if Kemp wins the Republican primary first

[Gass3268]

The runoff system is in the state constitution, right? They would need Democratic votes I think to make the change.