Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Hammy]

Tonight's Big Winners: Ossoff, Warnock, Abrams, Biden

Tonight's Big Losers: Perdue, Loeffler, Trump, McConnell, CNN

Jan 5 big winners: Moderate/Liberal Democrats

Jan 5 big losers: The ability of Georgia Republicans to win statewide elections

Lauren McDonald says hi.

Come on people. This was a great result, but it was razor thin during what was basically a democratic year. We've hit purple Georgia status, but not Atlas read yet.

Wait another several years to a decade, and if current demographic Trends continue, yes the place will be closer to Virginia or Colorado. But we've got some time before we hit being anything other than a pure swing state.

In the meantime, we have to deal with the fact of places like Ohio switching from wing state status to atlas sapphire blue, plus places like , Wisconsin, and Michigan turning from Fairly reliable light Atlas red states to your toss-ups.

Democrats can't win runoffs in Georgia--that's been the conventional wisdom. Dems simply don't turn out, they're capped at 48-49%, even if they win in the GE they lose the runoff. Even in the most D years.

The reason this is a huge deal is all that went out the window in not one but two Senate races, and both outperformed Biden--without the help of a third party.

[afleitch]

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I still can't get over the fact that Loeffler had Kristi Noem fly down to Georgia to campaign for her. Like, who in Georgia is going to change their mind because the governor of South Dakota says so? I'm sure Noem is popular with online conservatives, but I'm pretty certain that 95% of Georgians have no idea who she is.

Just an absolutely terrible campaign by Loeffler.

[forsythvoter]

Also, according to Fox/AP exit poll, Ossoff/Warnock actually got 94% of black support, even higher than Abrams (93%). Incredible.

Well that helps complete the puzzle we were pondering before the election. It looks like Ossoff will get around 28% of the white vote, 94% of the black vote and 65% of the Asian and Hispanic vote, with black turnout around 29%.

One underdiscussed topic is what do folks think is the percent of the black vote that Ossoff / Warnock will get? Polls seemed to show Biden got 88-90% of the black vote, which is actually on the low end for a Democrat in a deep southern state like GA. I think there are some reasons to think Ossoff / Warnock will outperform this by a few percentage points.

If black voters make up 3% more of the electorate vs. November and give Ossoff / Warnock a 5% greater margin, that actually brings down the white share that Ossoff / Warnock need to receive from Biden's 30% to 26% or so.

[It’s so Joever]

So...is Georgia Virginia 2.0?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So...is Georgia Virginia 2.0?

Too early to tell. Let's see how it votes in the midterms.

[Bootes Void]

So...is Georgia Virginia 2.0?

Too early to tell, All of Ga is southern but VA is only southern below Nova

[Tintrlvr]

Webster County sent a weird signal being the first county to post complete results last night, and having by a fairly large gap, the largest swing R since Nov of any county in the state.

I think earlier today it was said that Webster County hasn't counted its absentee ballots yet, which would explain the apparent large R swing. The same thing happened in a few other counties last night that originally said they were done but it turned out they hadn't counted absentees, most notably Newton County.

[wbrocks67]

What the f**k is DeKalb waiting for

or Chatham, or Henry, or Fulton, or Gwinnett, they all have like 3-7K ballots left. DK what they're doing

[GeorgiaModerate]

What the f**k is DeKalb waiting for

or Chatham, or Henry, or Fulton, or Gwinnett, they all have like 3-7K ballots left. DK what they're doing

For absentees that arrived yesterday, they all must be processed which may require review by voter review panels.  It's not a fast process.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So...is Georgia Virginia 2.0?

I'd say it's a pure toss-up for now, lean D if the current partisan alignment trends remain the same. The swing in Georgia wasn't quite as drastic as VA, a small drop-off in Democratic turnout in a post-Trump era could easily flip it back. Whereas flipping Virginia, even in 2012 or 2016, would have required flipping Obama voters. And suppressing turnout is a lot easier than convincing voters of the other party to flip.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the f**k is DeKalb waiting for

or Chatham, or Henry, or Fulton, or Gwinnett, they all have like 3-7K ballots left. DK what they're doing

For absentees that arrived yesterday, they all must be processed which may require review by voter review panels.  It's not a fast process.

Ughhhhhhhhhh

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So...is Georgia Virginia 2.0?

I'd say it's a pure toss-up for now, lean D if the current partisan alignment trends remain the same. The swing in Georgia wasn't quite as drastic as VA, a small drop-off in Democratic turnout in a post-Trump era could easily flip it back. Whereas flipping Virginia, even in 2012 or 2016, would have required flipping Obama voters. And suppressing turnout is a lot easier than convincing voters of the other party to flip.

This. Our wins in GA have been based on a combination of growth in support from the previously-Republican suburbs and increased minority participation, the latter of which could decrease at any time and the former who could switch back at any time. The wins in VA have been built almost entirely off of the NoVA region, which is liberal & highly educated and therefore very likely to vote in elections.

[Adam Griffin]

Trying to determine where all votes still exist. I think this is basically it:

Once everything is counted, my projection is that Ossoff wins by 36,400 votes (50.41% of total) and Warnock wins by 74,200 votes (50.83% of total).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm not really getting the point of all these 8-year old Ossoff tweets that people have been digging up.  They all seem totally inoffensive and unremarkable to me.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm not really getting the point of all these 8-year old Ossoff tweets that people have been digging up.  They all seem totally inoffensive and unremarkable to me.

I think people find them funny and relatable.

[n1240]

Webster County sent a weird signal being the first county to post complete results last night, and having by a fairly large gap, the largest swing R since Nov of any county in the state.

I think earlier today it was said that Webster County hasn't counted its absentee ballots yet, which would explain the apparent large R swing. The same thing happened in a few other counties last night that originally said they were done but it turned out they hadn't counted absentees, most notably Newton County.

They've definitely counted their absentee ballots. 581 early in-person reported received, 606 counted; 298 mail reported received, 298 counted

[2952-0-0]

Is the GAGOP falling into the same wingnut rabbit hole as the AZGOP? Also, is this newfound conversion to the integrity of the democratic process from the Governor and SOS for real, or is it a cynical ploy?

[n1240]

Trying to determine where all votes still exist. I think this is basically it:

Once everything is counted, my projection is that Ossoff wins by 36,400 votes (50.41% of total) and Warnock wins by 74,200 votes (50.83% of total).

5k from Fulton, 5k from Gwinnett, 5k from Chatham, Henry has about 8600 to be more exact. 3k absentee from assorted counties (1/3 from Dougherty, another 1/3 from Fayette). Most military/overseas ballots are counted to my knowledge, the 14k number is what hasn't been received, probably only a small fraction gets counted.

Based on the absentee margins in the counties where they still have some absentees to count, I'd expect Ossoff to sneak over a 1% margin and Warnock will be slightly below a 2% margin.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes counted.

Ossoff +0.42 (18.4K vote lead)
Warnock +1.3 (55.6K vote lead)

Ossoff’s margin over David Perdue is now 3,626 votes below the 0.5 percentage point threshold needed to avoid a recount.

[GP270watch]

Perdue wins by 5-10k votes

  Does he?

[DINGO Joe]

Webster County sent a weird signal being the first county to post complete results last night, and having by a fairly large gap, the largest swing R since Nov of any county in the state.

I think earlier today it was said that Webster County hasn't counted its absentee ballots yet, which would explain the apparent large R swing. The same thing happened in a few other counties last night that originally said they were done but it turned out they hadn't counted absentees, most notably Newton County.

They've definitely counted their absentee ballots. 581 early in-person reported received, 606 counted; 298 mail reported received, 298 counted

The county just West of Webster, Stewart, had an above avg swing to the D's, maybe 50 people moved across the county line in 2 months.

[LimoLiberal]

Did Georgia just stop counting votes?

[n1240]

Did Georgia just stop counting votes?

Dougherty finished their absentee votes, broke about 1080-200 D

[Torrain]

Did Georgia just stop counting votes?

Given that the SOS had to be evacuated from the State Capitol, after rioters stormed the building, I wouldn't be surprised if they're taking a recess.