Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[anthonyjg]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

It's okay, I thought but pubs would win too, but it's over now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

There are literally 100 mail ballots still oustanding from the ATL metro area. Explain to me how that breaks any less than 60-40 for Democrats?

[Buzz]

Ashamed of my state once again.  Georgia is a blue state now, and its sad we let the country down.

This loss is 100% on Trump.  That Dumba$$ convinced enough people in rural Georgia this was rigged and their vote didn't matter.  Idiocracy!!!!!!!!!!!


SMFH Georgia

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

I don’t know why I’m feeding you.

But yes there are easily more than 20k net Dem votes outstanding.  Probably at least 50k in fact.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Purdue lead back under 10K thanks to a dump from Savannah.

NYT says that Ossoff needs to win the remaining votes by 26 points, but he’s expected to win by 36. only a matter of time.

[n1240]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Chatham hasn't added early in-person votes, neither has Coffee, 1/4 of Fulton precincts outstanding (R lean but Ossoff/Warnock should still win these) also missing ~10k mail, Newton hasn't added mail-in votes.

Gabriel Sterling is claiming that it's only absentee by mail that came in today left in Chatham.

Yeah they added their early in-person votes two mins before I posted, trimmed about 3k from the lead.

[It’s so Joever]

Ashamed of my state once again.  Georgia is a blue state now, and its sad we let the country down.

This loss is 100% on Trump.  That Dumba$$ convinced enough people in rural Georgia this was rigged and their vote didn't matter.  Idiocracy!!!!!!!!!!!


SMFH Georgia

Perdue still has a chance

[JohnCA246]

So I think Trafalgar is worth taking seriously even if they aren't polling scientifically. GA was their big stain and looks like they did pretty well this time. Of course they oversell GOP chances but they seem as accurate as anyone else is.

[ProudModerate2]

LMAO.
Thank you for that. I gave me a good chuckle.

[UncleSam]

Ashamed of my state once again.  Georgia is a blue state now, and its sad we let the country down.

This loss is 100% on Trump.  That Dumba$$ convinced enough people in rural Georgia this was rigged and their vote didn't matter.  Idiocracy!!!!!!!!!!!


SMFH Georgia

This is the correct conservative response. Not...whatever the hell MM has been posting.

[Omolloy]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Chatham hasn't added early in-person votes, neither has Coffee, 1/4 of Fulton precincts outstanding (R lean but Ossoff/Warnock should still win these) also missing ~10k mail, Newton hasn't added mail-in votes.

Gabriel Sterling is claiming that it's only absentee by mail that came in today left in Chatham.

Yeah they added their early in-person votes two mins before I posted, trimmed about 3k from the lead.

Coincidentally, I believe there's supposed to be around 3k votes left from Chatham.

[ExSky]

DeKalb still have >100k absantees left. This isn’t gonna be close

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

Do I think Ossoff will net 20k votes when there are 40k outstanding votes in DeKalb, 50k in Fulton, 15k in Newton, 10k in Henry, and 5k in Chatham? Most of which are mail-in votes that should heavily skew left? Yes.

[Buzz]

The fact that David Perdue lost to John Ossoff is f***ing insane.  He literally just whipped his a$$ two months ago.  Voter suppression caused by Trump... SAD!

[Alben Barkley]

Ashamed of my state once again.  Georgia is a blue state now, and its sad we let the country down.

This loss is 100% on Trump.  That Dumba$$ convinced enough people in rural Georgia this was rigged and their vote didn't matter.  Idiocracy!!!!!!!!!!!


SMFH Georgia

No, you saved the country!

You're right about the "idiocracy" though, but maybe question why it is so many idiots are in your party?

[Horus]

Ossoff less than a tenth of a point from taking the lead.

[KaiserDave]

Fulton in!

PERDUE ONLY UP BY 3K!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So I guess we have proven beyond doubt, that promising people COLD HARD CASH, is a lot more effective than whatever the hell the Democrats have been running on as of late.

Basic materialist analysis, comrade.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

According to the NYT, Ossoff needs to win 52% of the outstanding vote to win, and he is projected to win 63% of that vote.

[SCNCmod]

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
...
1/1: 928K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white


IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
...
1/1: 2.07M (56.7% white, 30.3% black) —> +26.4 white

I'm using super wide General Assumptions here.... but, if you suppose that the mail-in net votes is a wash for Dems & Republicans... and just look at the gain in net votes for Dems via In-Person EV (strictly using the gain in Black/White margin.... since race is the most consistent determination of votes in Georgia), you get:

636K (Nov race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)
526K (Runoff race breakdown, applied to 2.07M runoff votes)

which is a +90K Gain for Dems.  So if the Election Day numbers were exactly the same as November:

Ossoff would win by 2,000 votes (since he lost by 88K votes in Nov).

This was a quick calculation I did several days ago using just the increase in % of Black vote (using very general assumptions).  But looks like at least the prediction could be close

(although I actually think Ossoff will end up winning by a little more than 2000 votes, once all the votes are in... which could be due (to the above mentioned) slightly better margins for Dems in rural counties)

[SN2903]

The fact that David Perdue lost to John Ossoff is f***ing insane.  He literally just whipped his a$$ two months ago.  Voter suppression caused by Trump... SAD!

Trump and Mitch are both to blame if GOP loses both.

[MasterJedi]

The fact that David Perdue lost to John Ossoff is f***ing insane.  He literally just whipped his a$$ two months ago.  Voter suppression caused by Trump... SAD!

Yes, when you have Trump acting like a little bitch for two months it’s wonderful to watch them galaxy brain themselves into a loss.

[Alben Barkley]

The fact that David Perdue lost to John Ossoff is f***ing insane.  He literally just whipped his a$$ two months ago.  Voter suppression caused by Trump... SAD!

I wouldn't call a two point plurality "whipping his ass."

[brucejoel99]

I’ll ban myself for a month and Venmo someone $50 on election night if it goes the Democrats way: Georgia Special, South Carolina, Kentucky

Don't forget to ban yourself too!

I called dibs, I want my $50 MM.

[Badger]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

Make you a deal. If Purdue wins, I take a year off from The Forum. If not, you do.

Either way, neither one of us posts in this thread again until the sun comes up tomorrow.

Deal? Put up or shut up. If you refuse, I call you to stop posting here until tomorrow.


I'm not the hero Atlas deserves, I'm just the one it needs.