Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[wbrocks67]

Early in person voting closes out being substantially less white than in November. There is a +26.4 white lead in total this time, compared to +31.8 last time.

Can only imagine that entire VBM+in person total gets less white from here on out as more mail ballots get counted. Right now, it's +25.0 white compared to +28.8 white in November, so it's possible it could go down to +24.0 by the end of mail ballots on Tuesday.

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/27: 2.10M (55.4% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.9 white
12/28: 2.13M (55.2% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.6 white
12/29: 2.34M (55.2% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.7 white
12/30: 2.60M (55.4% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.1 white
12/31: 2.81M (55.5% white, 31.1% black) —> +24.4 white
1/1: 3.00M (55.8% white, 30.8% black) —-> +25.0 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white
12/24: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/25: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/27: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/28: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/29: 1.36M (51.5% white, 32.8% black) —> +18.7 white
12/30: 1.37M (51.4% white, 32.8% black) —> +18.6 white
12/31: 1.37M (51.4% white, 32.9% black) —> +18.5 white
1/1: 1.373M (51.4% white, 32.9% black) —> +18.5 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white
12/24: 722K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/25: 725K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/27: 735K (54.8% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.2 white
12/28: 748K (54.7% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.1 white
12/29: 802K (54.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +22.9 white
12/30: 856K (54.2% white, 31.8% black) —> +22.4 white
12/31: 896K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white
1/1: 928K (54.0% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.1 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white
12/24: 1.34M (55.9% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.4 white
12/25: 1.35M (55.8% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.3 white
12/27: 1.36M (55.7% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.2 white
12/28: 1.38M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/29: 1.54M (55.6% white, 31.4% black) —> +24.2 white
12/30: 1.71M (56.0% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.0 white
12/31: 1.92M (56.3% white, 30.7% black) —> +25.6 white
1/1: 2.07M (56.7% white, 30.3% black) —> +26.4 white

[Tender Branson]

The runoff total EV is 4% less White, but 5% older than the GE EV.

A similar mail return rate as in the GE (74%) would mean an additional 90k mail ballots being returned until Tuesday night.

For a total of 3.091 million early votes (ca. -900k from the GE).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah, Ossoff's klansman attack is such BS. The Chinese communist attack against Ossoff also seems to be pretty BS.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yep, we definately seem to be heading towards a place where the GOP has about a 300k vote deficit, which is pretty much a pure tossup.

My guess would be the e-day vote will be similar to that of the GE. As someone else pointed out, Democrats don’t seem to be canabalizing their e-day vote because very few people who voted on e-day have voted thus far in these runoffs, but that’s not to say the e-day vote can’t or won’t be more GOP friendly than in Nov.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Ossoff's klansman attack is such BS. The Chinese communist attack against Ossoff also seems to be pretty BS.

Loeffler shouldn't have taken a pic with a klansman then? It's her own fault

[DrScholl]

The fact that Loeffler took a picture with another known white supremacist makes the claim that she didn't know questionable. I think she knows that she needs fringe turnout to win.

[roxas11]

Yeah, Ossoff's klansman attack is such BS. The Chinese communist attack against Ossoff also seems to be pretty BS.

The only thng that I think is BS is the fact that her campaign claims they had no idea that thier candidate was photographed hanging out with not just 1 but 2 white supremacist.....





As I said in a previous post Chester Doles was not just some unknown nobody. He was the former leader of the Ku Klux Klan who was sentenced to prison for the 1993 beating of a black man. He also recently marched at the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville in 2017. “

he has been involed with the KKK for decades and I dont believe for 1 second that her enitre campaign and security team had no idea who this guy was......

[ProgressiveModerate]

Daily Update:

Democrat's lead has shrunk to only + 7.1, and the GOP did make up some ground in the margin, which is interesting because generally the last day of EV is Dem friendly. Part of it might have to be that some counties like Fulton didn't have early voting.

Now the gap has shrunk to only 213,646

This margin is very likely to be padded a bit over the next few days as more mail ballots likely to break heavily D come in. If I had to guess, the Democrats will get their estimated lead just under 300k heading into e-day.

Now the GOP only needs an e-day turnout of about 1.1 million if things broke as they did in the GE

Current County map:



These are close, and either side could realistically win these. Again, these numbers are just estimates based upon the early data we have so take it all with a grain of salt.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Daily Update:

Democrat's lead has shrunk to only + 7.1, and the GOP did make up some ground in the margin, which is interesting because generally the last day of EV is Dem friendly. Part of it might have to be that some counties like Fulton didn't have early voting.

Now the gap has shrunk to only 213,646

This margin is very likely to be padded a bit over the next few days as more mail ballots likely to break heavily D come in. If I had to guess, the Democrats will get their estimated lead just under 300k heading into e-day.

Now the GOP only needs an e-day turnout of about 1.1 million if things broke as they did in the GE

Current County map:



These are close, and either side could realistically win these. Again, these numbers are just estimates based upon the early data we have so take it all with a grain of salt.

Are you using Perdue's numbers as the baseline for the GOP, or Trump's?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Now the GOP only needs an e-day turnout of about 1.1 million if things broke as they did in the GE

What do they need to get it down to a 51% Biden electorate to account for hypothetical ticket-splitting? 50.5%?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Daily Update:

Democrat's lead has shrunk to only + 7.1, and the GOP did make up some ground in the margin, which is interesting because generally the last day of EV is Dem friendly. Part of it might have to be that some counties like Fulton didn't have early voting.

Now the gap has shrunk to only 213,646

This margin is very likely to be padded a bit over the next few days as more mail ballots likely to break heavily D come in. If I had to guess, the Democrats will get their estimated lead just under 300k heading into e-day.

Now the GOP only needs an e-day turnout of about 1.1 million if things broke as they did in the GE

Current County map:



These are close, and either side could realistically win these. Again, these numbers are just estimates based upon the early data we have so take it all with a grain of salt.

Are you using Perdue's numbers as the baseline for the GOP, or Trump's?

For the e-day, I'm using Trump's numbers since I had access to those first before the Senate race numbers, but the e-day vote broke roughly the same for Perdue and Trump, infact, Perdue did slightly worse than Trump in the e-day vote.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Now the GOP only needs an e-day turnout of about 1.1 million if things broke as they did in the GE

What do they need to get it down to a 51% Biden electorate to account for hypothetical ticket-splitting? 50.5%?

My numbers are a combination of the Senate numbers and the GE numbers, but if I wanted to get Democrats to have a 1 point lead, it would only take slightly under 1 million in e-day turnout (947k). 2 point lead would require an e-day turnout of about 700k (696k). Again, these are all estimates, so take with a grain of salt. The current Dem lead estimate just being a point or two off can dramatically alter how high e-day turnout needs to be for the GOP.

[VAR]

Yeah, Ossoff's klansman attack is such BS. The Chinese communist attack against Ossoff also seems to be pretty BS.

wHy aRe yOu dOiNg bOtH sIdEzZzZzZzZzZ!!!!!!11111!!!!!!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Now the GOP only needs an e-day turnout of about 1.1 million if things broke as they did in the GE

What do they need to get it down to a 51% Biden electorate to account for hypothetical ticket-splitting? 50.5%?

My numbers are a combination of the Senate numbers and the GE numbers, but if I wanted to get Democrats to have a 1 point lead, it would only take slightly under 1 million in e-day turnout (947k). 2 point lead would require an e-day turnout of about 700k (696k). Again, these are all estimates, so take with a grain of salt. The current Dem lead estimate just being a point or two off can dramatically alter how high e-day turnout needs to be for the GOP.

So would you agree that e-day turnout under 550k is basically a dem lock and over 1.2 million is basically a gop lock?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Now the GOP only needs an e-day turnout of about 1.1 million if things broke as they did in the GE

What do they need to get it down to a 51% Biden electorate to account for hypothetical ticket-splitting? 50.5%?

My numbers are a combination of the Senate numbers and the GE numbers, but if I wanted to get Democrats to have a 1 point lead, it would only take slightly under 1 million in e-day turnout (947k). 2 point lead would require an e-day turnout of about 700k (696k). Again, these are all estimates, so take with a grain of salt. The current Dem lead estimate just being a point or two off can dramatically alter how high e-day turnout needs to be for the GOP.

So would you agree that e-day turnout under 550k is basically a dem lock and over 1.2 million is basically a gop lock?

I would widen it to more like 500k to 1.35 million being the competative range, which is very wide.

[Tender Branson]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Currently, it looks like the EV is 4% less white than the one before the GE, but 5% older (than 65 years) than the GE early vote.

Therefore, it could be that more younger black/minority people voted early, but more old white voters.

Cancelling each other out.

But: if more older and younger black/minority people voted early instead and older white voters stayed home, this would be good news for Warnoff.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Now the GOP only needs an e-day turnout of about 1.1 million if things broke as they did in the GE

What do they need to get it down to a 51% Biden electorate to account for hypothetical ticket-splitting? 50.5%?

My numbers are a combination of the Senate numbers and the GE numbers, but if I wanted to get Democrats to have a 1 point lead, it would only take slightly under 1 million in e-day turnout (947k). 2 point lead would require an e-day turnout of about 700k (696k). Again, these are all estimates, so take with a grain of salt. The current Dem lead estimate just being a point or two off can dramatically alter how high e-day turnout needs to be for the GOP.

So would you agree that e-day turnout under 550k is basically a dem lock and over 1.2 million is basically a gop lock?

I would widen it to more like 500k to 1.35 million being the competative range, which is very wide.

Well, 1.35m is impossible and 500k is plausible so I feel good about that.

[7,052,770]

Why would anyone doubt Loeffler knowingly campaigned with the KKK, when we know she intentionally and knowingly campaigned with Marjorie Greene, who believes that Democrats rape, torture and cannibalize children in a revamping of Jewish blood libel/Satanic panic tropes?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

[Tender Branson]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

Maybe I don't see it, but I meant age and race combined.

For example, how many early voters were blacks over 65 ?

Or whites over 65 ?

Or whites between 18-30 ?

Or blacks between 18-30 ?

This would be interesting to know and how it compares to early voting before the GE ...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

Maybe I don't see it, but I meant age and race combined.

For example, how many early voters were blacks over 65 ?

Or whites over 65 ?

Or whites between 18-30 ?

Or blacks between 18-30 ?

This would be interesting to know and how it compares to early voting before the GE ...

I haven't seen any data, but if you break the datat down by state House district or County, you can get a pretty good sense of the correlations.

Last time I checked, it seems like metro Atlanta area had more young voters than the state overall, and you had more older voters in the black belt, with most Republican rural areas being pretty much  in line with the statewide numbers. Things might've changed since then but that's what I remember

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah, Ossoff's klansman attack is such BS. The Chinese communist attack against Ossoff also seems to be pretty BS.

Good.
I would respect Ossoff more if he was willing to lie to voters for partisan gain since he is a Democrat.

[MillennialModerate]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

I’m going to be attacked for this but this is a good microcosm of Atlas. I was starting to let the thought that Dems had a prayer creep into my head based on the “Black voters are 35-40% of the votes so far”. I click on that..the number is 30%. Not NEARLY enough.

It seems like if your opinion isn’t a sunshine outlook on Dems chances you get ripped to shreds. Yet almost every Dem Senate race the last 4 years (16,18,20) has seemed to be a major disappointment other than Alabama.

[KaiserDave]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

I’m going to be attacked for this but this is a good microcosm of Atlas. I was starting to let the thought that Dems had a prayer creep into my head based on the “Black voters are 35-40% of the votes so
far”. I click on that..the number is 30%. Not NEARLY enough.

It seems like if your opinion isn’t a sunshine outlook on Dems chances you get ripped to shreds. Yet almost every Dem Senate race the last 4 years (16,18,20) has seemed to be a major disappointment other than Alabama.

Please shut up, nothing you're saying is remotely true or accurate

[roxas11]

Is there a breakdown of total early voters by age and race ?

Yes, see https://www.georgiavotes.com/.

I’m going to be attacked for this but this is a good microcosm of Atlas. I was starting to let the thought that Dems had a prayer creep into my head based on the “Black voters are 35-40% of the votes so
far”. I click on that..the number is 30%. Not NEARLY enough.

It seems like if your opinion isn’t a sunshine outlook on Dems chances you get ripped to shreds. Yet almost every Dem Senate race the last 4 years (16,18,20) has seemed to be a major disappointment other than Alabama.

Not even the crazy people on PredictIt are buying your Doomer spin about the Dems chances.
kelly loeffler is currently dropping like a stone while Warnock is now at the highest numbers he has ever been since the start of the race. heck even Purdue Numbers have been on the decline


If the dems chances were truly as bad as you are making it out to be than there is chance in hell many of the fools on that site would be losing faith in the GOP like they currently are