Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1346674072348975104?s=21

[It’s so Joever]

Just checked and there's apparently ~24k votes out in conservative Ligma county. I'm so sorry MillenialModerate, it looks like you were right after all.

I laughed way harder than I should

[Del Tachi]

The amount of energy y’all waste quoting and responding to MM posts is kinda ridiculous, lmao

Just ignore him if you disagree with him.  Bad takes are a dime a dozen around here

[Alben Barkley]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Just something you might want to reflect on.

[ExSky]

Bofa county still has a ton of red vote out.

[Malarkey Decider]

Ossoff will go on to win by ~40k. Mark my Words.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

What the heck just happened on MSNBC? Went from Perdue +3K to Perdue +19K

There was a fair bit still out in Bartow County that I think just came in. Heavily Republican area.

[ProudModerate2]

Ossoff is down 19k, not 3k. There was a tabulation error. Perdue still isn't gonna win

It wasn’t a tabulation error, the biggest tranche of remaining GOP vote came in a few minutes after the DeKalb dump.  It actually bumped Ossoff above 95% on the needle.

So is it fair to say that the NYT "Needle" model was taking it into consideration from the start?

[Tintrlvr]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Fulton has a fair number left, too. Not percentage-wise of overall votes in Fulton, but Fulton is huge.

[ultraviolet]

Even though there were times MillenialModerate suggested Ossoff may have a 1% chance, he has always held up that Warnock has ZERO chance. MM, you owe brucejoel $50 btw

[Hammy]

Coffee county is still 64% out.

Dems are doomed.

That'll net no more than 6k for GOP if I've calculated it correctly.

[n1240]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Chatham hasn't added early in-person votes, neither has Coffee, 1/4 of Fulton precincts outstanding (R lean but Ossoff/Warnock should still win these) also missing ~10k mail, Newton hasn't added mail-in votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NATHANIEL RAKICH
JAN. 5, 11:18 PM
Let’s do a little thought exercise. There are about 171,000 early votes left to count in DeKalb. Let’s say Ossoff and Warnock win them 143,000 to 28,000, which would mirror how Biden did in November among DeKalb early voters. That would perfectly erase Perdue’s current 115,000-vote lead and turn Loeffler’s current 82,000-vote lead into a 33,000-vote Warnock lead. And that’s without counting the remaining ballots in Cobb, Chatham and other outstanding counties.

[Lourdes]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Fulton still has a bunch too, even at 97% in, 3% outstanding is a lot there.

[BudgieForce]

There's still a sizable chunk of Newton still out too. They haven't counted their mail in votes apparently.

[Tintrlvr]

Ossoff is down 19k, not 3k. There was a tabulation error. Perdue still isn't gonna win

It wasn’t a tabulation error, the biggest tranche of remaining GOP vote came in a few minutes after the DeKalb dump.  It actually bumped Ossoff above 95% on the needle.

So is it fair to say that the NYT "Needle" model was taking it into consideration from the start?

Yes. In fact, Bartow reporting pushed Ossoff from 94% to 95% chance to win.

[Catalyst138]

Can we give a shoutout to Georgia pollsters for being completely correct twice in a row?

[MillennialModerate]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

[Tintrlvr]

There's still a sizable chunk of Newton still out too. They haven't counted their mail in votes apparently.

Ah, that would make sense. I've been wondering about the handful of counties that say they are all done but are showing wild swings against the grain to the Republicans. Newton is by the far largest (and the only competitive one), but there are a couple of random small ones in North Georgia, too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/GrantSwanson88/status/1346675002733563904

[Omolloy]

Cobb, DeKalb, Henry are the only counties remaining with large numbers of outstanding votes, correct?

Chatham hasn't added early in-person votes, neither has Coffee, 1/4 of Fulton precincts outstanding (R lean but Ossoff/Warnock should still win these) also missing ~10k mail, Newton hasn't added mail-in votes.

Gabriel Sterling is claiming that it's only absentee by mail that came in today left in Chatham.

[It’s so Joever]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

Just wait until other counties are 95% in.

[Sopranos Republican]

So I guess we have proven beyond doubt, that promising people COLD HARD CASH, is a lot more effective than whatever the hell the Democrats have been running on as of late.

[ultraviolet]

I’ll ban myself for a month and Venmo someone $50 on election night if it goes the Democrats way: Georgia Special, South Carolina, Kentucky

Don't forget to ban yourself too!