Which races are you most optimistic/pessimistic about?

[VAR]

I’m optimistic about Iowa, Maine, & Montana. Most pessimistic about the GA races as I think Ossoff getting to 50% is more likely than people think.

[7,052,770]

Pessimistic - SC, AK, KS, MT, AL
Optimistic - both GA, TX, IA, NC, ME, CO, AZ

Predicting a 54-46 (58-46 probably) Senate

[MT Treasurer]

Only doing competitive races (i.e., not CO/AZ):

Optimistic: IA, ME (relatively speaking, obviously -- I know it won’t be easy in this environment).

A little more optimistic than I used to be but still not overly so: NC, SC, KS, TX.

Pessimistic: GA-R, GA-S, MI

‘Very concerned’: MT (a potential tipping-point race that people write off with "yeah it’ll stay Republican anyway if Rs hold IA/ME/etc. This race really shouldn’t be considered less competitive than the other battleground races, and a scenario in which MT denies Republicans the Senate majority is nowhere near as unlikely as people here think. Yes, Daines could lose even if Collins, Tillis, and Ernst all win.)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Optimistic: CO GA (both) TX AZ NC
Pessimistic: ME (too close for comfort) MT (more neutral) IA AL KS AK

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Optimistic: AZ, ME, NC, SC, TX, GA-Perdue
Pessimistic: IA, MI

No strong feelings either way: AK, CO, GA-Special, KS, MT

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pessimistic - SC, AK, KS, MT, AL
Optimistic - both GA, TX, IA, NC, ME, CO, AZ

Predicting a 54-46 (58-46 probably) Senate

So, basically partisanship winning out?

[LimoLiberal]

Pessimistic: KS, AK, IA, AL
Tilt Pessimistic: NC, ME
Neutral: AZ, TX, MI
Tilt Optimistic: MN, GA-Sen, MT
Optimistic: GA, CO

[Ferguson97]

Optimistic: AZ, NC
Neutral: IA, ME, GA-R, GA-S
Pessimistic: MT, SC

[Xing]

Optimistic: GA, MI, TX (more so than before)
Pessimistic: IA, KS, MT, NC

Not sure about ME.

[TML]

Among races rated by at least one reputable rating organization as not more than “Lean”:

Optimistic: AZ, CO, ME, MI, NC, NH, NM
Jump-ball: IA, GA, GA-S, MT
Pessimistic: AK, AL, KS, SC, TX

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ds probably win: CO, AZ, NC, ME
Tilt R: GAx2, MT, IA
Rs probably win: TX, KS, SC, AK

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sullivan doesn't have the race in the bag, AK officials say VBM ballots can take all made mnth long to count, D's need four seats to win the Prez due to Pence will vote against Biden as the Prez, when he certified the winner on Jan 3rd. D's don't know how devious Pence is

Bullock will win too, it's tied race and Daines doesn't hit 50 in recent
polls like Tester did and neither does Gianforte

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Optimistic: GA, MI, TX (more so than before)
Pessimistic: IA, KS, MT, NC

Not sure about ME.

Still don't believe in waves do you

[Podgy the Bear]

I am hopeful about MT.  Bullock could potentially pull it out--has been a popular governor.  Also, they have not nationalized the Senate races the way it was done in 2018.

Optimistic about GA special.  Warnock has run a remarkable race and has made strong appeals to the independent vote.  And the loser of the Collins-Loeffler battle will find it very difficult to come around for the runoff.

[Samof94]

Alabama is a lost cause.

[hyouzel the predictor]

More Optimistic: ME, MT, SC, GA, IA
More Pessimistic: KS, TX, GA-S, NC, AK

[MillennialModerate]

Optimistic - Arizona, Colorado, Michigan
Could go either way - Iowa/Montana
Pessimistic - North Carolina, Maine, Kansas
Absolutely Not Happening - Georgia,

I’ll ban myself for a month and Venmo someone $50 on election night if it goes the Democrats way: Georgia Special, South Carolina, Kentucky

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

optimistic
AZ
CO
MI
MN
ME
TX
SC
GA
GA S
Neutral
MT
Pessimistic
AK
NC
IA
KS

[Gracile]

Optimistic:
GA-R
GA-S
MT (in the sense that it's still virtually a tossup)
NC (kind of)
TX

Pessimistic:
AK (early on I thought this would be a sleeper race)
IA
KS
ME (concerned that Gideon isn't running closer to Biden/RCV making the results more uncertain)
SC

[Kuumo]

Optimistic: AZ, CO, GA, GA-S, ME, TX
Pessimistic: AK, IA, KS, MI, MT, NC, SC

[xavier110]

I am only doing the "competitive" races. I don't think AZ or CO, for example, qualify.

Optimistic:
- MAINE: If this is a Biden 1980 landslide (or even 2008), Collins is losing. Simple as that. So bye bye.
- MONTANA: This one always was going to be close, and that fills me with joy.
- GEORGIA: Goddamn is Perdue digging his grave with days before the election. Really feels like Ossoff has the late momentum and if Biden does well, he could clear 50.
- TEXAS: We just gotta pray that Joseph and the technicolor suburbs come through.

Pessimistic:
- SOUTH CAROLINA: The Bledsoe numbers gotta be bomb for the math to work. I am skeptical.
- KANSAS: Bollier seemed to flounder a bit these last few weeks with a lackluster debate performance.
- IOWA: The fundamentals of Iowa make me nervous and pessimistic overall, but Trump visiting just 2-3 days before the election suggests to me that there could be hope.

I don't feel strongly about North Carolina. That one will just happen.

[BlueSwan]

Ds probably win: CO, AZ, NC, ME
Tilt R: GAx2, MT, IA
Rs probably win: TX, KS, SC, AK

Totally agree with this list.

[VAR]

I’m optimistic about Iowa, Maine, & Montana. Most pessimistic about the GA races as I think Ossoff getting to 50% is more likely than people think.

Well, the Republicans outperformed expectations in all three, so I think I was right to be optimistic about our chances. Perdue and Loeffler did "meh" considering the national environment.