Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Hammy]

Hey remember this morning when everyone was freaking out about Election Day turnout?

Sounds like I made the right choice in forgetting today was election day until about two hours ago.

[DaleCooper]

Hey remember this morning when everyone was freaking out about Election Day turnout?

Sounds like I made the right choice in forgetting today was election day until about two hours ago.

I didn't even wake up till 8:30pm central time.

[Catalyst138]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346659909492998146

“How come every time they count Mail-In ballot dumps they are so devastating in their percentage and power of destruction?”

[Crumpets]

McConnell in particular 100% deserved losing his Senate majority after blocking the 2k checks. F*** him..

Are you looking forward to having the most powerful Senator?

Doubly hilarious as Manchin and West Virginia in general faces a lot of criticism on Atlas..

Unjustly!

West Virginia will surpass Delaware as the most politically relevant state of the Biden administration!

I can't wait for 2024 rentier state West Virginia, full of gleaming high rises and monuments.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

McSally or Loeffler? Who is more pathetic?

McSally. Losing twice is worse.

Yeah but 2018 is a blue wave.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346659909492998146

Twitter needs to just f***ing ban him already.

"Mr. Trump put the GOP in a funk." That's a phrase I thought of about an hour ago. Trump's childish refusal to concede and his promotion of insane conspiracy theories are the major factor driving tonight's results in Georgia. McConnell's refusal to take up the bolstered stimulus checks was an additional nail in the coffin. If Republicans don't disavow Trump after this, then I don't know what to say.

I really don’t think Trump’s behavior was that decisive. This is looking like it was basically turnout driven.

I'd disagree with you. Trump has been railing about how the election was "stolen" from him, and he and his surrogates have been casting doubt on the legitimacy of Georgia's electoral system, to say nothing of his attempts to overturn the state's results and to pressure Raffensperger. And the results we are seeing indicate that turnout in heavily GOP counties is down noticeably from November, and far more so than in Democratic strongholds.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Hey remember this morning when everyone was freaking out about Election Day turnout?

Sounds like I made the right choice in forgetting today was election day until about two hours ago.

I’m going to be honest, I fell for it a little. Like I was very confident based on EV (which iirc was showing a more heavily AA electorate than the same point in November) but started getting bummed out early on.

[Badger]

You have to admit that Mark Kirk was a good guy. Easily the most liberal Republican Senator this decade.

This isn't relevant to the thread but Mark Kirk ran a racist campaign against Tammy Duckworth in the closing weeks. Not a "good guy" by any means even if he is better than most if not all of his Republican colleagues.

He had a stroke that completely messed up his brain. Mark was extremely sharp before that, winning reelection to his House seat by 6 points in the middle of a massive Democratic wave year as Obama carried it with 61%. That speaks volumes about how strong he was.

Kindly do not blame a racist election campaign on a stroke.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

Why? None of the analysis out there suggests Perdue is going to win.

Sanchez is an optimist.

[DaleCooper]

McSally or Loeffler? Who is more pathetic?

McSally. Losing twice is worse.

Yeah but 2018 is a blue wave.

She did worse this year didn't she?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

Why? None of the analysis out there suggests Perdue is going to win.

None of the analysis said Trump would win in 2016. I don't blindly trust the media.

I'll tell you exactly why I think this - so far, Perdue has held a stronger lead over Ossoff than Loeffler has held over Warnock. Perdue has been a serious, if not low key, member of the Senate. On the other hand, Loeffler, whom I personally like a lot, is being perceived as the billionaire's wife. Her husband runs the boardroom, and she runs the Federation of Republican Women's weekly brunch. She's not as serious a candidate, and she's up against a much stronger opponent than Perdue is.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Warnock at 95% and Ossoff 81%

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

McConnell in particular 100% deserved losing his Senate majority after blocking the 2k checks. F*** him..

Are you looking forward to having the most powerful Senator?

Doubly hilarious as Manchin and West Virginia in general faces a lot of criticism on Atlas..

Unjustly!

West Virginia will surpass Delaware as the most politically relevant state of the Biden administration!

I can't wait for 2024 rentier state West Virginia, full of gleaming high rises and monuments.

The Joseph Manchin Center for Luxury Living, 6969 Joseph Manchin Highway, Rand, WV 25306

[NYSforKennedy2024]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why isn’t there a needle for bubba mcdonald

[7,052,770]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

Why? None of the analysis out there suggests Perdue is going to win.

None of the analysis said Trump would win in 2016. I don't blindly trust the media.

I'll tell you exactly why I think this - so far, Perdue has held a stronger lead over Ossoff than Loeffler has held over Warnock. Perdue has been a serious, if not low key, member of the Senate. On the other hand, Loeffler, whom I personally like a lot, is being perceived as the billionaire's wife. Her husband runs the boardroom, and she runs the Federation of Republican Women's weekly brunch. She's not as serious a candidate, and she's up against a much stronger opponent than Perdue is.

I'm talking about election result statistical analysis, not pre-game or poll analysis, and nothing from "the media." The "needle" made Trump the clear favorite by 10:41 Eastern on 11/8/2016.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

You have to admit that Mark Kirk was a good guy. Easily the most liberal Republican Senator this decade.

This isn't relevant to the thread but Mark Kirk ran a racist campaign against Tammy Duckworth in the closing weeks. Not a "good guy" by any means even if he is better than most if not all of his Republican colleagues.

He had a stroke that completely messed up his brain. Mark was extremely sharp before that, winning reelection to his House seat by 6 points in the middle of a massive Democratic wave year as Obama carried it with 61%. That speaks volumes about how strong he was.

Kindly do not blame a racist election campaign on a stroke.

Hey remember his first election where he bragged about sending out people to intimidate voters in Chicago, the Metro-East, and Rockford? (the three places in IL with significant black populations) Nothing racist about that.

[tagimaucia]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

lol

[LabourJersey]

McConnell in particular 100% deserved losing his Senate majority after blocking the 2k checks. F*** him..

Are you looking forward to having the most powerful Senator?

Doubly hilarious as Manchin and West Virginia in general faces a lot of criticism on Atlas..

Unjustly!

West Virginia will surpass Delaware as the most politically relevant state of the Biden administration!

I can't wait for 2024 rentier state West Virginia, full of gleaming high rises and monuments.

Charleston WV becomes the new destination for hipsters, connected to DC via bullet train.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

Why? None of the analysis out there suggests Perdue is going to win.

None of the analysis said Trump would win in 2016. I don't blindly trust the media.

I'll tell you exactly why I think this - so far, Perdue has held a stronger lead over Ossoff than Loeffler has held over Warnock. Perdue has been a serious, if not low key, member of the Senate. On the other hand, Loeffler, whom I personally like a lot, is being perceived as the billionaire's wife. Her husband runs the boardroom, and she runs the Federation of Republican Women's weekly brunch. She's not as serious a candidate, and she's up against a much stronger opponent than Perdue is.

However, on election night in 2016, it became clearer and clearer he would win as more and more votes came in. Right now, 87% of the estimated vote is in, and the remaining votes are concentrated in heavily D areas, and there's no reason to think Cobb would suddenly take a hard shift right when pretty much every single other major Atlanta metropolitan county shifted several points to the left from Nov.

Your analysis before the election would've been fair but it's not fully supported by the vote totals we're seeing, though Perdue is outperforming Loefller a tad.

[MillennialModerate]

I don’t get it, the margins are

70k for Kelly
109k for Perdue

Yes Dekalb is outstanding but GOP will pick up votes in almost every remaining area other than that?

So this is a dead tossup...

I know I’m usually negetive but seriously... why is this considered so heavily Dem?

[Del Tachi]

On CNN:  133k votes left to count in DeKalb...is that enough??  What would they have to break

[DrScholl]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

Why? None of the analysis out there suggests Perdue is going to win.

None of the analysis said Trump would win in 2016. I don't blindly trust the media.

I'll tell you exactly why I think this - so far, Perdue has held a stronger lead over Ossoff than Loeffler has held over Warnock. Perdue has been a serious, if not low key, member of the Senate. On the other hand, Loeffler, whom I personally like a lot, is being perceived as the billionaire's wife. Her husband runs the boardroom, and she runs the Federation of Republican Women's weekly brunch. She's not as serious a candidate, and she's up against a much stronger opponent than Perdue is.

I'm talking about election result analysis, not pre-game or poll analysis. The "needle" made Trump the clear favorite by 10:41 Eastern on 11/8/2016.

Lol, you made this post at 10:41 Eastern.

[Hindsight was 2020]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

Why? None of the analysis out there suggests Perdue is going to win.

None of the analysis said Trump would win in 2016. I don't blindly trust the media.

I'll tell you exactly why I think this - so far, Perdue has held a stronger lead over Ossoff than Loeffler has held over Warnock. Perdue has been a serious, if not low key, member of the Senate. On the other hand, Loeffler, whom I personally like a lot, is being perceived as the billionaire's wife. Her husband runs the boardroom, and she runs the Federation of Republican Women's weekly brunch. She's not as serious a candidate, and she's up against a much stronger opponent than Perdue is.

You’re mixing up pre-election analysis with in-election analysis. The people you’re downplaying were telling us at this point Trump was gonna win

[Non Swing Voter]

Now they're saying only 130,000 left in DeKalb.  That doesn't sound right based on what we know about the early vote numbers at georgiavotes.com