Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[politicallefty]

What % reported is Floyd?  I can’t look at it on my phone

Good catch. Only about 1k in Floyd (40k in November). For whatever reason, Floyd always takes forever to count its votes. It is probably - without looking too much county-by-county - the single-biggest GOP bastion left to count.

It's all in now. Went 70-30 for Perdue, about a 14k vote majority.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m sorry but is this babies first election for some of you posters? How many elections has this site and the Twitter election nerd group figured out the results based on margins long before the networks call it?

[brucejoel99]

Bearish G.O.P. strategist texts: "This jump-starts the debate we'll see through the '24 election: Is Trump the problem or the solution?" Given suburban tallies, strategist says, it's plainly the former.

[SevenEleven]

I was the first to call these. Accolades?

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346659909492998146

Who is this person? Why are they relevant?

[LabourJersey]

McConnell in particular 100% deserved losing his Senate majority after blocking the 2k checks. F*** him..

Are you looking forward to having the most powerful Senator?

Doubly hilarious as Manchin and West Virginia in general faces a lot of criticism on Atlas..

Unjustly!

West Virginia will surpass Delaware as the most politically relevant state of the Biden administration!

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Amazing what Democrats can do when they emphasize economic populism.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I was the first to call these. Accolades?

I called a clean sweep on the General Election night forum.

[Adam Griffin]

For the past 30-45 minutes, the share of the outstanding vote that remains in the ten Democratic core counties has been remaining at around two-thirds, give or take, despite raw vote totals increasing. This might sound good for the GOP but they are running out of votes fast and the share of outstanding votes that are in core DEM counties is getting close to skyrocket.

GOP has about 70k votes outstanding in core counties (Houston, Columbia & Floyd) that are an average of 60% R, while DEMs have about 500k votes outstanding in core counties (mentioned above) that are 65-70% D. The rest out there is chump change.

EDIT: looks like Floyd just dumped the vast majority of its vote.

[KaiserDave]

Other counties of note they won’t talk about on CNN:  Clarke, Oconee, Paulding, Newton, Walton, Fayette, and the NWGA counties

Anyone want to post what % breakdowns are there?  I’d be forever grateful

I'm seeing Clarke fully reported Dems at 71%. .8% better than Biden.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346659909492998146

Gee, I don't know, you dope.  Maybe 11,780?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346659909492998146

Twitter needs to just f***ing ban him already.

[UncleSam]

So basically at this point the only question is what the turnout was in Dekalb. If the vote dump comes in as strong as it is expected then these races are both over. Warnock should win no matter what even with anemic turnout in Dekalb, while a bad Dekalb dump would make the Ossoff-Perdue race a tossup. A good Dekalb dump obviously seals it for both Dems.

Is this more or less accurate?

I think we already know that turnout in DeKalb was higher than November

The question is more the margin. Biden won DeKalb by 250k in November. Currently Dems have netted roughly 90k from DeKalb and are down by ~100k in the general (the special barely matters since they'll win that pretty much no matter what). If Ossoff ends up netting 175k from DeKalb that probably won't be enough, but if he ends up netting 225k+ then it's almost certainly enough. There's still a fair amount of uncertainty but Ossoff is clearly in the lead and should get enough from DeKalb to secure the win.

[AGA]

94% Warnock on the Needle...yeah, pretty much over. Just watching Ossoff right now.

[Hammy]

Why is everyone celebrating? The GOP are still well ahead
Or am I missing something?

DeKalb is going to wipe that out

Mark my words this isn’t even close to over

Your takes on this increasingly sound like you're rooting for the Dems to lose.

[AndyHogan14]

I'm three margaritas in...we're celebrating here in California. Let's Go!

[Badger]

More than one Kelly in that image...

And a whole lot of Karen's

[South Dakota Democrat]

Why is everyone celebrating? The GOP are still well ahead
Or am I missing something?

DeKalb is going to wipe that out

Mark my words this isn’t even close to over

Why are you the way that you are?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Hey remember this morning when everyone was freaking out about Election Day turnout?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346659909492998146

Twitter needs to just f***ing ban him already.

"Mr. Trump put the GOP in a funk." That's a phrase I thought of about an hour ago. Trump's childish refusal to concede and his promotion of insane conspiracy theories are the major factor driving tonight's results in Georgia. McConnell's refusal to take up the bolstered stimulus checks was an additional nail in the coffin. If Republicans don't disavow Trump after this, then I don't know what to say.

[MasterJedi]

Imagine if Trump hadn’t have been a little bitch for two months. Would have been two loses. Happy Trump trumped himself.

[Barack Oganja]

Polls are back in style

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1346661243998924800

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1346648359243694080

I have to change after reading that out loud

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346659909492998146

Twitter needs to just f***ing ban him already.

"Mr. Trump put the GOP in a funk." That's a phrase I thought of about an hour ago. Trump's childish refusal to concede and his promotion of insane conspiracy theories are the major factor driving tonight's results in Georgia. McConnell's refusal to take up the bolstered stimulus checks was an additional nail in the coffin. If Republicans don't disavow Trump after this, then I don't know what to say.

I really don’t think Trump’s behavior was that decisive. This is looking like it was basically turnout driven.

[7,052,770]

At this point I think Perdue wins and Loeffler loses.

Why? None of the analysis out there suggests Perdue is going to win.