Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Horus]

Perdue did also do dogwhistling, when he deliberately mispronounced Kamala Harris' name. Have people just forgotten about that (I guess it is tame compared to the other insanity the Republican Party spews, but still)?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/sen-david-perdue-mispronounces-sen-kamala-harriss-first-name/2020/10/16/6a74f294-88cd-49c7-b51a-b80bc70ac51f_video.html

That hasn't been forgotten. There's a good anti Perdue radio ad on the pop station and several hip hop stations focusing on it.

[wbrocks67]

Here's todays update. Not sure what's going on with the VBM requests. # went down from 1.6m to 1.2m, not sure if that was a mistake now or a mistake fixed on McDonald's part

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/15: 1.42M (52.2% white, 32.6% black) ---> +19.6 white
12/16: 1.61M (52.3% white, 32.7% black) ---> +19.6 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white

[T0rM3nTeD]

12/17 Update

Total of 427,127 (+48K) mail ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.284M (?) mail ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General) - There must have been an error last time because this number is 400K lower than the day before
Total of 486,970 (+151K) EIP votes so far (2.694M in the General)

Breakdown of those votes by county following same percentages that they broke in the General would result in:

Dems - 489,894 (+101K)
GOP - 424,203 (+97K)

Dems +65,690 (+4K)

[Rookie Yinzer]

75,000 people registered between October 5-December 7.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/75k-new-georgia-voters-registered-before-us-senate-runoffs/H3CXAFIKHJNW5MBFZKQDZU/?ecmp=pg&utm_medium=social&utm_source=pg_fb&fbclid=IwAR21RJDBCH0uQ892eDJG6GuLrwQZ-iz8z_Z5NuCLkqeyzFYmcOZzNfzgSkk

That means they missed the deadline to vote in November but made the deadline to vote in the runoff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

12/17 Update

Total of 427,127 (+48K) mail ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.284M (?) mail ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General) - There must have been an error last time because this number is 400K lower than the day before
Total of 486,970 (+151K) EIP votes so far (2.694M in the General)

Breakdown of those votes by county following same percentages that they broke in the General would result in:

Dems - 489,894 (+101K)
GOP - 326,583 (+97K)

Dems +65,690 (+4K)

Thanks so much for tabulating these daily

Overall, it seems like the rate at which Dems have an advantage has been shrinking and will probably flip soon, but we'll see.

[brucejoel99]

75,000 people registered between October 5-December 7.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/75k-new-georgia-voters-registered-before-us-senate-runoffs/H3CXAFIKHJNW5MBFZKQDZU/?ecmp=pg&utm_medium=social&utm_source=pg_fb&fbclid=IwAR21RJDBCH0uQ892eDJG6GuLrwQZ-iz8z_Z5NuCLkqeyzFYmcOZzNfzgSkk

That means they missed the deadline to vote in November but made the deadline to vote in the runoff.

57% under 35 years old, but only 1.6K have voted so far. Fingers crossed that number continues to go up significantly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Anyone else find it a bit concerning that Clarke, Muscogee, and Chatham counties have pretty poor numbers thus far? I know some counties are slower at reporting than others, but these counties are home to 3 mid-sized cities which all played a great role in Biden's victory.

[Pollster]

Just completed our second (and final) extensive runoff poll. From here on out, we'll be doing tracking (which only asks demographics/vote intention/vote method/name rec).

There's nothing really new or unexpected to report, but an interesting data point we picked up is that Loeffler & Perdue are both struggling with Republicans under the age of 40, and even more so when narrowed down to under the age of 30. Many rate their likelihood to vote as low, their enthusiasm to vote even lower, and the percentage who say they've requested a ballot at this point is far lower than it was in our polls of the general election. They are also the most likely demographic to report that they haven't been contacted by any candidate's campaign. In our previous poll, we found Republican youth to be the most anti-Trump 2024, so it's possible we're picking up an under-the-radar trend here.

In the past, GA Republicans have had some of the better youth outreach we've seen. Kemp's 2018 campaign in particular did a fairly good job organizing with college Republicans, and reaching out to rural millennials. If the Republicans narrowly fall short here, Republican youth dropoff could wind up being the decisive reason.

Are things showing up in your recent polls that were a while back? i.e. Ossoff struggling a bit more than Warnock?

Ossoff is still perceived far differently than Warnock and has different vulnerabilities, but the fact of the matter is that this is boiling down to a purely partisan exhibition.

[T0rM3nTeD]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Anyone else find it a bit concerning that Clarke, Muscogee, and Chatham counties have pretty poor numbers thus far? I know some counties are slower at reporting than others, but these counties are home to 3 mid-sized cities which all played a great role in Biden's victory.

Yes that is troubling, but I'm not sure how early the votes started coming in for those counties for the GE. Looks like for the GE those counties consisted of X% of their total vote done early (In-person + mail combined)

Chatham: 70%
Clarke: 80%
Muscogee: 81%

Chatham has 20K votes in so far, and had 92K in the GE
Clarke has 4K votes in so far, and had 41K in the GE
Muscogee has 11K votes in so far, and had 65K in the GE

After checking it out when you mentioned, it looks like Chatham is lagging the GE the least. We'll see how they look after some souls to the polls Sundays... I haven't checked which counties have been ahead of the ball for mail in ballots either and which are lagging but will catch up.

[SCNCmod]

Here's todays update. Not sure what's going on with the VBM requests. # went down from 1.6m to 1.2m, not sure if that was a mistake now or a mistake fixed on McDonald's part


VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/15: 1.42M (52.2% white, 32.6% black) ---> +19.6 white
12/16: 1.61M (52.3% white, 32.7% black) ---> +19.6 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white

I wonder if they accidentally reported the ballots actually requested (vs the total ballots send out... which is ballots actually request (plus) the 325,000 that were automatically sent out for the runoff).
If you add 325,000 to 1.28M, the total comes to 1.7M (which would seem to likely be a correct number- just a slight increase from 12/16, now that Early In Person has started & we are approaching the number requested in the general election).

[wbrocks67]

Just completed our second (and final) extensive runoff poll. From here on out, we'll be doing tracking (which only asks demographics/vote intention/vote method/name rec).

There's nothing really new or unexpected to report, but an interesting data point we picked up is that Loeffler & Perdue are both struggling with Republicans under the age of 40, and even more so when narrowed down to under the age of 30. Many rate their likelihood to vote as low, their enthusiasm to vote even lower, and the percentage who say they've requested a ballot at this point is far lower than it was in our polls of the general election. They are also the most likely demographic to report that they haven't been contacted by any candidate's campaign. In our previous poll, we found Republican youth to be the most anti-Trump 2024, so it's possible we're picking up an under-the-radar trend here.

In the past, GA Republicans have had some of the better youth outreach we've seen. Kemp's 2018 campaign in particular did a fairly good job organizing with college Republicans, and reaching out to rural millennials. If the Republicans narrowly fall short here, Republican youth dropoff could wind up being the decisive reason.

Are things showing up in your recent polls that were a while back? i.e. Ossoff struggling a bit more than Warnock?

Ossoff is still perceived far differently than Warnock and has different vulnerabilities, but the fact of the matter is that this is boiling down to a purely partisan exhibition.

are public polls matching what you're seeing in the H2H? i.e. a very close race, with maybe a slight Dem advantage?

[Pollster]

Just completed our second (and final) extensive runoff poll. From here on out, we'll be doing tracking (which only asks demographics/vote intention/vote method/name rec).

There's nothing really new or unexpected to report, but an interesting data point we picked up is that Loeffler & Perdue are both struggling with Republicans under the age of 40, and even more so when narrowed down to under the age of 30. Many rate their likelihood to vote as low, their enthusiasm to vote even lower, and the percentage who say they've requested a ballot at this point is far lower than it was in our polls of the general election. They are also the most likely demographic to report that they haven't been contacted by any candidate's campaign. In our previous poll, we found Republican youth to be the most anti-Trump 2024, so it's possible we're picking up an under-the-radar trend here.

In the past, GA Republicans have had some of the better youth outreach we've seen. Kemp's 2018 campaign in particular did a fairly good job organizing with college Republicans, and reaching out to rural millennials. If the Republicans narrowly fall short here, Republican youth dropoff could wind up being the decisive reason.

Are things showing up in your recent polls that were a while back? i.e. Ossoff struggling a bit more than Warnock?

Ossoff is still perceived far differently than Warnock and has different vulnerabilities, but the fact of the matter is that this is boiling down to a purely partisan exhibition.

are public polls matching what you're seeing in the H2H? i.e. a very close race, with maybe a slight Dem advantage?

We're definitely seeing a very close race, but I wouldn't say the data is there (publicly or privately) to classify anybody as having an advantage.

[SCNCmod]

We're definitely seeing a very close race, but I wouldn't say the data is there (publicly or privately) to classify anybody as having an advantage.

Do you (personally) predict that the same party will win both seats (ie the unknown turnout factors will  break to one party... enough to outweight any split ticket voting)?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The races are gonna be influenced by the STIMULUS talks, Mcconnell has failed as leader of Senate, he is taking his time approving it due to the 1200 Bucks, it has taken him this long, is bad for him

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Anyone else find it a bit concerning that Clarke, Muscogee, and Chatham counties have pretty poor numbers thus far? I know some counties are slower at reporting than others, but these counties are home to 3 mid-sized cities which all played a great role in Biden's victory.

Yes that is troubling, but I'm not sure how early the votes started coming in for those counties for the GE. Looks like for the GE those counties consisted of X% of their total vote done early (In-person + mail combined)

Chatham: 70%
Clarke: 80%
Muscogee: 81%

Chatham has 20K votes in so far, and had 92K in the GE
Clarke has 4K votes in so far, and had 41K in the GE
Muscogee has 11K votes in so far, and had 65K in the GE

After checking it out when you mentioned, it looks like Chatham is lagging the GE the least. We'll see how they look after some souls to the polls Sundays... I haven't checked which counties have been ahead of the ball for mail in ballots either and which are lagging but will catch up.

I can say that Clarke county might not be a problem. UGA had early voting and Election Day voting on campus for the General so that students would be able to vote. Students were discouraged from coming back after Thanksgiving break and will likely be voting at home, so they may account for a good amount of the difference this time around.

[pppolitics]

GOP senator in critical race refuses to answer question 9 times

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/17/kelly-loeffler-biden-georgia-runoff-senate-cupp-sot-nr-vpx.cnn

[GALeftist]

GOP senator in critical race refuses to answer question 9 times

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/17/kelly-loeffler-biden-georgia-runoff-senate-cupp-sot-nr-vpx.cnn

This actually makes me wonder, as January 3 does approach, will Loeffler's challenging or not challenging the electoral vote become a salient issue? The optimal scenario would obviously be if McCarthy could make sure no members of the House put them in the hot seat but I guarantee someone will challenge. Could be a minor issue in the couple days before election day. Also, Perdue's term expires before they count the votes, right?

Edit: I'm dumb as a stump, the special election is on January 5 and the votes are counted January 6, I believe. Could still be an issue, I suppose, but Loeffler won't have to outright vote.

[brucejoel99]

GOP senator in critical race refuses to answer question 9 times

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/17/kelly-loeffler-biden-georgia-runoff-senate-cupp-sot-nr-vpx.cnn

Loeffler's a real profile in courage, ain't she?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

So according to what other posters have mentioned, about 23,000 18 year olds have “aged in” for this election since November, and there may be a few thousand people who have moved to Georgia since then and have registered. So, let’s just say 10,000 of them will turn out to vote. That would be about a 40% turnout rate. If they go 60/40 D-R that should give Warnock and Ossoff another 2K votes. Not a lot, but anything helps.
I’m also assuming that those who have died since November 3rd are probably older and more GOP-leaning. I know I’m doing some quick math, but would you guys agree with it?

I don't think it's that high

[Florida Man for Crime]

So according to what other posters have mentioned, about 23,000 18 year olds have “aged in” for this election since November, and there may be a few thousand people who have moved to Georgia since then and have registered. So, let’s just say 10,000 of them will turn out to vote. That would be about a 40% turnout rate. If they go 60/40 D-R that should give Warnock and Ossoff another 2K votes. Not a lot, but anything helps.
I’m also assuming that those who have died since November 3rd are probably older and more GOP-leaning. I know I’m doing some quick math, but would you guys agree with it?

I don't think it's that high

I would agree with that assessment, but you should remember that in addition to some youngs having "aged in" to the electorate, there are also some olds who have "died out" of the electorate. Those olds will be higher turnout, and should be more Republican and more white than the general population (unless possibly it is skewed by COVID). Frankly the subtraction of votes from olds who have passed away is probably quite a bit more significant than the addition of new votes from youngs who turned 18.

[7,052,770]

GOP senator in critical race refuses to answer question 9 times

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/17/kelly-loeffler-biden-georgia-runoff-senate-cupp-sot-nr-vpx.cnn

"I'm the voice for Georgia but I'm unwilling to admit that the candidate Georgia voted for is the national winner."

[SCNCmod]

If a couple of the recent polls are correct (which show a slight uptick for Republicans... leading by 2-3pts), based on cross tabs- Dems really need strong turnout among the under-35 voters (a group in which Dems have a bigger lead than they did in the General).

The specific poll I'm referring to is the Emerson Poll, I think.  Although I'm not sure the breakdowns for support levels with each age group are correct- they just seem a bit off. Basically, Dems have a Huge lead with under 35 (something like 75%), & Repubs lead each remaining age group by varying margins.

I think Youth vote will definitely turn out at higher levels than past runoffs- but I worry about students at Schools like UGA (38,000 students), which had on campus voting during the General...but most students will not return after Thanksgiving- so all of those students will need to find their polling place for the runoff, etc (which means there will likely be a dropoff of UGA students voting.

[wbrocks67]

Wish we could get a few high quality polls of this race but with the holiday coming up, it doesn't look likely

[ProgressiveModerate]

If a couple of the recent polls are correct (which show a slight uptick for Republicans... leading by 2-3pts), based on cross tabs- Dems really need strong turnout among the under-35 voters (a group in which Dems have a bigger lead than they did in the General).

The specific poll I'm referring to is the Emerson Poll, I think.  Although I'm not sure the breakdowns for support levels with each age group are correct- they just seem a bit off. Basically, Dems have a Huge lead with under 35 (something like 75%), & Repubs lead each remaining age group by varying margins.

I think Youth vote will definitely turn out at higher levels than past runoffs- but I worry about students at Schools like UGA (38,000 students), which had on campus voting during the General...but most students will not return after Thanksgiving- so all of those students will need to find their polling place for the runoff, etc (which means there will likely be a dropoff of UGA students voting.

I don't really think much has changed in polling itself, it's just that we have so few polls, many of which are from not-so-great pollsters and they're all predicting different turnout with different samples. What seems to be consistent is a Biden +2 or so electorate seems to be the inflection point.

As for the students, yeah, that definately is one cause of concern for Democrat's. It probably won't net them much of a loss, but in a close race, 2000 votes here and there can matter. I hope that generational turnover may be enough to offset this, as Georgia has a very prominent old-young divide in how people vote, but we'll see.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Made a model that calculates an estimate of how many votes it thinks canidates have won based on how things broke in the GE.

Thus far, it thinks Osoff and Warnock have each recieved 463k votes, and Loefller and Perdue 451k for a narrow 1.3% margin.

It doesn't take into account that the votes cast thus far are likely to skew heavily D. This shows that thus far, turnout in counties that heavily backed Biden isn't much higher than counties that heavily backed Trump. I'll continue to update it and try to add on features.

Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CHaYVrkw7GVGga4Jna_d4Kau8ESLYHCEKO9-INR_P9o/edit?usp=sharing

Write turnout values by county to play around with it.