Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden-Kemp areas like Buckhead.

Abrams won Buckhead by double digits. Just sayin'.

[brucejoel99]

The grifting never stops.
https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1339210253506895872

Call me crazy, but I'm beginning to think that Senator Loeffler's actions with regards to her personal finances haven't all been above-board.

[wbrocks67]

The grifting never stops.
https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1339210253506895872

I mean tbf, pretty much anyone who owns a home, particularly one that's expensive, will try to make it seem as bad as possible during appraisal for tax purposes. These attacks on Loeffler's and Perdue's finances make them look like terrible people, but I almost think Democrats are overusing this attack method, ultimately few except the engaged who are definately voting and have likely already made up their mind care about all their financial problems. People get that Loefeller and Perdue are bad, but Ossoff need to also be able to explain why they are good.

They have....

[forsythvoter]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

[forsythvoter]

The grifting never stops.
https://twitter.com/NoahShachtman/status/1339210253506895872

I mean tbf, pretty much anyone who owns a home, particularly one that's expensive, will try to make it seem as bad as possible during appraisal for tax purposes. These attacks on Loeffler's and Perdue's finances make them look like terrible people, but I almost think Democrats are overusing this attack method, ultimately few except the engaged who are definately voting and have likely already made up their mind care about all their financial problems. People get that Loefeller and Perdue are bad, but Ossoff need to also be able to explain why they are good.

They have....

I think what Progressive Moderate is trying to say is that attacks like these are effective are up to a point, but after they reach that point, they become a bit overused and take up bandwidth and resourcing that really could be put towards messages that move more voters. The average voter is well aware at this point that Loeffler / Perdue made a bunch of unethical stock trades and did some questionable deals that seems to have financially benefited themselves. If they aren't already voting against Loeffler / Perdue at this point, it's clearly not the winning message

I would say the same thing for the R attacks on D being socialists btw, for all the Rs on this forum. It's pretty overused to the point of being discounted. I frankly have no personal experience living in communist Cuba or under Maduro's Venezuela, but it just seems absurd to call the Ds as being from the same family to the point where I just chuckle when I hear the ads.

[Tender Branson]

While the racial trendline among mail requests + early voting favours Dems compared to the GE numbers, the age breakdowns among mail requests + early voting still skews heavily towards old voters.

Maybe additional old Black voters turning out ?

This would be good news for the 2 Dems, but old voters in the GE also went Trump by 12 points ...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

You can store a copy of messages you send, but unfortunately you have to select that option before sending the PM.

What you can do, however, is send whoever you sent the message to another PM asking them to copy/paste/send back the PM you sent earlier, because whoever that other user is should still have a copy of it. Then when they send it back, you can post it.

[forsythvoter]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

Thanks to the poster that replied with my email so I could publish it . Presenting random musings of forsythvoter...

Before I get to the Senate runoffs, one of the reasons I post on Atlas (in addition to being curious about other viewpoints) is because I think there are a number of people who read the forums to get a better understanding of all the different political viewpoints that are out there. While I certainly don't represent all GA voters, I hope that my posts provide good insights on what's top of mind from the standpoint of a formerly R-leaning (arguably this is no longer the case, as you may be aware from my posts) voter whose views are pretty common in a heavily Republican suburb of Atlanta that is trending quite rapidly Democratic.

In terms of how I think about the Senate runoffs, I actually don't view it as a vote for Perdue/Loeffler vs. Ossof / Warnock. Rather, I see it more as a vote for Collins / Murkowski / Romney vs. a vote for Manchin / Sinema. Therefore, the difference to me is not as extreme as I think many Democrats see it. I still see value in a system where Democrats should be able to get at least one R to sign onto their legislation. In my mind as a moderate, that makes for more moderate legislation. And if the situations were reversed (Trump were re-elected with a narrow House majority, my thinking would absolutely be flipped). The fact that I'm contemplating voting straight Democratic for the runoffs is frankly what's quite incredible imo, and a reflection of how much the GOP has turned off voters like me.

In terms of legislation - you can look through some of my past points, but I really do worry about our ballooning deficit and national debt. I realize and agree Republicans have done nothing to control this, but I worry that giving Dems a trifecta will lead to excess spending in areas that I actually don't think are good for the broader economy. For example, I actually don't think those with student loans on average are struggling as much as those without (I say that as a college-educated voter who has student loans and would benefit from having them canceled).

There are two good points you and others have raised and I am digesting it. It is these two things which are preventing me from just following my typical instinct to not give Dems a trifecta. One is how much power does McConnell really have to prevent legislation from getting passed, assuming Murkowski, Romney or Collins agree. I frankly still don't fully understand this point and if you have any insights, I will be eager to hear. I agree with the Ds that he will try to obstruct Biden's agenda - the question I have, is to what extent can he do so with 51 or 52 votes.

The other point is I do not think highly of Loeffler or Perdue at all. The reason I've ruled out voting for Loeffler goes beyond just the fraud accusations. I think she's essentially running a dog whistle campaign (how she wasn't aware that was taking a picture with a prominent KKK member is frankly not even the tip of the iceberg for me) in the hopes that white voters like me secretly agree with her not so subtle references to Warnock's race. I find it honestly quite offensive, and frankly if I weren't comfortable living with black Americans, I wouldn't be living in metro Atlanta in the first place. This type of campaign to me is absolutely disqualifying and is why Warnock has my vote.

Perdue isn't running against Warnock, so you may argue that's why we haven't seen that sort of a campaign to this extent from his side, but I try to judge based on what I see, not on what I think I would see. This is where I think Dems and Reps tend to jump the gun, including on issues like packing the courts. I would prefer not to pack the courts; maybe my opinion would change if they started overturning Roe vs. Wade, Obergefell, etc. but I am not convinced hat they will do so. If Dems pack the courts, they will also have to contend with the very real likelihood that Repubs will do the same once they have the trifecta btw - an outcome I tend to think is just as likely in the future as Dems getting and maintaining one.

So for Perdue, my vote is really coming down to how much do I think Biden's agenda will be stonewalled vs. just moderated by Rs having a 51 seat majority in the Senate.

[WD]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LLinWood/status/1339293637922807809

[Sopranos Republican]

I still see value in a system where Democrats should be able to get at least one R to sign onto their legislation. In my mind as a moderate, that makes for more moderate legislation. And if the situations were reversed (Trump were re-elected with a narrow House majority, my thinking would absolutely be flipped). The fact that I'm contemplating voting straight Democratic for the runoffs is frankly what's quite incredible imo, and a reflection of how much the GOP has turned off voters like me.

They already have that though, his name is Joe Manchin.

[Calthrina950]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

I understand your motivations better now. Like you, I consider myself to be a moderate, and I am a registered unaffiliated voter in Colorado (hence my avatar). I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, and third-party candidates in the past. So I would understand why you would be skeptical to give Biden a Democratic trifecta, although I'd hope you understand that many Republicans (and McConnell in particular) have nefarious motives.

[walleye26]

Does anybody know how many 18 year olds have “aged in” and are now eligible to vote in this election that weren’t in November?

[brucejoel99]

Does anybody know how many 18 year olds have “aged in” and are now eligible to vote in this election that weren’t in November?

The number I've seen floating around on social media is 23K but I don't know if that's been verified or anything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well the Rs are looking good in their matchups in GA, we are gonna have divided Govt. Pelosi botched the Stimulus and allowed Rs to regroup in time to pass another Stimulus, she has to enjoy her 5 seat majority

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LLinWood/status/1339293637922807809

But muh radical leftist Warnock.

[Adam Griffin]

Does anybody know how many 18 year olds have “aged in” and are now eligible to vote in this election that weren’t in November?

The number I've seen floating around on social media is 23K but I don't know if that's been verified or anything.

Definitely in the ballpark. If you just breakdown population pyramids and calculate based on two months of growth without getting very precise, the real number could be anywhere from 20-30k.

However, only those who have either proactively registered to vote at 17.5 years or older (and prior to December 8 ) or those who visited a DMV to obtain their non-restricted licenses between October 6 and December 7 will actually be eligible to participate.

[Frenchrepublican]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

Thanks to the poster that replied with my email so I could publish it . Presenting random musings of forsythvoter...

Before I get to the Senate runoffs, one of the reasons I post on Atlas (in addition to being curious about other viewpoints) is because I think there are a number of people who read the forums to get a better understanding of all the different political viewpoints that are out there. While I certainly don't represent all GA voters, I hope that my posts provide good insights on what's top of mind from the standpoint of a formerly R-leaning (arguably this is no longer the case, as you may be aware from my posts) voter whose views are pretty common in a heavily Republican suburb of Atlanta that is trending quite rapidly Democratic.

In terms of how I think about the Senate runoffs, I actually don't view it as a vote for Perdue/Loeffler vs. Ossof / Warnock. Rather, I see it more as a vote for Collins / Murkowski / Romney vs. a vote for Manchin / Sinema. Therefore, the difference to me is not as extreme as I think many Democrats see it. I still see value in a system where Democrats should be able to get at least one R to sign onto their legislation. In my mind as a moderate, that makes for more moderate legislation. And if the situations were reversed (Trump were re-elected with a narrow House majority, my thinking would absolutely be flipped). The fact that I'm contemplating voting straight Democratic for the runoffs is frankly what's quite incredible imo, and a reflection of how much the GOP has turned off voters like me.

In terms of legislation - you can look through some of my past points, but I really do worry about our ballooning deficit and national debt. I realize and agree Republicans have done nothing to control this, but I worry that giving Dems a trifecta will lead to excess spending in areas that I actually don't think are good for the broader economy. For example, I actually don't think those with student loans on average are struggling as much as those without (I say that as a college-educated voter who has student loans and would benefit from having them canceled).

There are two good points you and others have raised and I am digesting it. It is these two things which are preventing me from just following my typical instinct to not give Dems a trifecta. One is how much power does McConnell really have to prevent legislation from getting passed, assuming Murkowski, Romney or Collins agree. I frankly still don't fully understand this point and if you have any insights, I will be eager to hear. I agree with the Ds that he will try to obstruct Biden's agenda - the question I have, is to what extent can he do so with 51 or 52 votes.

The other point is I do not think highly of Loeffler or Perdue at all. The reason I've ruled out voting for Loeffler goes beyond just the fraud accusations. I think she's essentially running a dog whistle campaign (how she wasn't aware that was taking a picture with a prominent KKK member is frankly not even the tip of the iceberg for me) in the hopes that white voters like me secretly agree with her not so subtle references to Warnock's race. I find it honestly quite offensive, and frankly if I weren't comfortable living with black Americans, I wouldn't be living in metro Atlanta in the first place. This type of campaign to me is absolutely disqualifying and is why Warnock has my vote.

Perdue isn't running against Warnock, so you may argue that's why we haven't seen that sort of a campaign to this extent from his side, but I try to judge based on what I see, not on what I think I would see. This is where I think Dems and Reps tend to jump the gun, including on issues like packing the courts. I would prefer not to pack the courts; maybe my opinion would change if they started overturning Roe vs. Wade, Obergefell, etc. but I am not convinced hat they will do so. If Dems pack the courts, they will also have to contend with the very real likelihood that Repubs will do the same once they have the trifecta btw - an outcome I tend to think is just as likely in the future as Dems getting and maintaining one.

So for Perdue, my vote is really coming down to how much do I think Biden's agenda will be stonewalled vs. just moderated by Rs having a 51 seat majority in the Senate.

I understand your dilemma and even if my political opinions are to the right of yours on probably many issues, to some extent I can relate with you. You know, being a conservative in France is not very easy and each election I have the same problem that you seem to have now as I must choose between politicans I don't like and with whom I disagree on most issues (sure I could abstain myself of voting but it's bit cowardly), in the end I always vote against someone or against a party and not for someone, I guess that being a moderate (I mean a true moderate not a straight ticket democratic voters who pretend to be a moderate because he has a problem with the world ''liberal'') in the USA is probably as much hard than being a conservative in France as candidates in both political parties are more or less forced to appeal to their most extreme elements, because of the primaries system, and thus mostly ignore the 1/5 of the electorate that is less ideological.

As for the GA races you're certainly smart enough to make your choices without the advice of myself and other Atlas members, but if you expect Sinema and Manchin to cast the deciding vote against left-wing legislations, you are probably going to be disappointed, when their vote is needed ''moderate'' democrats will always stick with their colleagues.

[Gustaf]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

Thanks to the poster that replied with my email so I could publish it . Presenting random musings of forsythvoter...

Before I get to the Senate runoffs, one of the reasons I post on Atlas (in addition to being curious about other viewpoints) is because I think there are a number of people who read the forums to get a better understanding of all the different political viewpoints that are out there. While I certainly don't represent all GA voters, I hope that my posts provide good insights on what's top of mind from the standpoint of a formerly R-leaning (arguably this is no longer the case, as you may be aware from my posts) voter whose views are pretty common in a heavily Republican suburb of Atlanta that is trending quite rapidly Democratic.

In terms of how I think about the Senate runoffs, I actually don't view it as a vote for Perdue/Loeffler vs. Ossof / Warnock. Rather, I see it more as a vote for Collins / Murkowski / Romney vs. a vote for Manchin / Sinema. Therefore, the difference to me is not as extreme as I think many Democrats see it. I still see value in a system where Democrats should be able to get at least one R to sign onto their legislation. In my mind as a moderate, that makes for more moderate legislation. And if the situations were reversed (Trump were re-elected with a narrow House majority, my thinking would absolutely be flipped). The fact that I'm contemplating voting straight Democratic for the runoffs is frankly what's quite incredible imo, and a reflection of how much the GOP has turned off voters like me.

In terms of legislation - you can look through some of my past points, but I really do worry about our ballooning deficit and national debt. I realize and agree Republicans have done nothing to control this, but I worry that giving Dems a trifecta will lead to excess spending in areas that I actually don't think are good for the broader economy. For example, I actually don't think those with student loans on average are struggling as much as those without (I say that as a college-educated voter who has student loans and would benefit from having them canceled).

There are two good points you and others have raised and I am digesting it. It is these two things which are preventing me from just following my typical instinct to not give Dems a trifecta. One is how much power does McConnell really have to prevent legislation from getting passed, assuming Murkowski, Romney or Collins agree. I frankly still don't fully understand this point and if you have any insights, I will be eager to hear. I agree with the Ds that he will try to obstruct Biden's agenda - the question I have, is to what extent can he do so with 51 or 52 votes.

The other point is I do not think highly of Loeffler or Perdue at all. The reason I've ruled out voting for Loeffler goes beyond just the fraud accusations. I think she's essentially running a dog whistle campaign (how she wasn't aware that was taking a picture with a prominent KKK member is frankly not even the tip of the iceberg for me) in the hopes that white voters like me secretly agree with her not so subtle references to Warnock's race. I find it honestly quite offensive, and frankly if I weren't comfortable living with black Americans, I wouldn't be living in metro Atlanta in the first place. This type of campaign to me is absolutely disqualifying and is why Warnock has my vote.

Perdue isn't running against Warnock, so you may argue that's why we haven't seen that sort of a campaign to this extent from his side, but I try to judge based on what I see, not on what I think I would see. This is where I think Dems and Reps tend to jump the gun, including on issues like packing the courts. I would prefer not to pack the courts; maybe my opinion would change if they started overturning Roe vs. Wade, Obergefell, etc. but I am not convinced hat they will do so. If Dems pack the courts, they will also have to contend with the very real likelihood that Repubs will do the same once they have the trifecta btw - an outcome I tend to think is just as likely in the future as Dems getting and maintaining one.

So for Perdue, my vote is really coming down to how much do I think Biden's agenda will be stonewalled vs. just moderated by Rs having a 51 seat majority in the Senate.

That makes sense. My logic would be that a narrow D trifecta wouldn't last very long if it turned off moderates and if it veers too far left it would be reined in by people like Manchin and Sinema.

On the flip-side, the ability of McConnell to block legislation if he retains even a narrow majority seems relatively larger, especially using the powers of senate majority leader.

[Pericles]

Perdue did also do dogwhistling, when he deliberately mispronounced Kamala Harris' name. Have people just forgotten about that (I guess it is tame compared to the other insanity the Republican Party spews, but still)?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/sen-david-perdue-mispronounces-sen-kamala-harriss-first-name/2020/10/16/6a74f294-88cd-49c7-b51a-b80bc70ac51f_video.html

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I haven't looked through 46 pages of commentary, so I don't know if this question has been addressed, but: why would a GA voter split her or his vote on Jan. 5?

Of course, if every voter split their ballots, the GOP would control the Senate unless both races ended in an exact tie. Continuing the journey through math fantasyland, any one of the four outcomes would have a 25% probability of happening if the races were independent, which of course they are not.

As of now, I'd say 3 of the 4 possible outcomes have about a 30% chance of happening, with Ossoff - Loeffler at about 10%.

Things to consider:
1. Some older, rural, white GOP voters have died since Nov. 3; and a number of those who turn 18 between Nov. 3 and Jan. 5 (more urban, more minority, more Democratic) have registered.

2. The Chambliss effect: in 2008, Saxby Chambliss (R) outpolled his Democratic opponent 49.9 - 47.2 on election day. Four weeks later, when everyone knew the Democrats had the presidency and both houses of Congress, Chambliss won comfortably, 57-43. The key difference in 2020, of course, is that, unlike in 2008, Senate control hangs in the balance (not to mention 12 years of the kinds of demographic changes described in 1 above).

Will the "Chambliss effect" be a factor this year?

There are some moderate suburbanites (such as forsythvoter) who have become alienated from Loeffler, but would still feel comfortable voting for Perdue. I don't fully understand their motivations either, given that both Loeffler and Perdue have hitched themselves on the Trump Train and have identical voting records. Moreover, both have made ignorant and controversial statements, and both have made explicit appeals to Trumpist voters.

Just to be clear, I'm not all that comfortable voting for Perdue for a variety of reasons. If I were, I would have just sent in my absentee ballot already.

Does anyone know if Atlas store copies of messages that we already sent privately? I actually just wrote a long email to another poster privately this morning laying out in a lot of detail my thinking process. I do want folks who are strongly D or R (and this forum has plenty) to at least understand the perspective of voters in the middle, even if they do not agree with it. I would like to publish it, but it's not showing up in my outbox.

Thanks to the poster that replied with my email so I could publish it . Presenting random musings of forsythvoter...

Before I get to the Senate runoffs, one of the reasons I post on Atlas (in addition to being curious about other viewpoints) is because I think there are a number of people who read the forums to get a better understanding of all the different political viewpoints that are out there. While I certainly don't represent all GA voters, I hope that my posts provide good insights on what's top of mind from the standpoint of a formerly R-leaning (arguably this is no longer the case, as you may be aware from my posts) voter whose views are pretty common in a heavily Republican suburb of Atlanta that is trending quite rapidly Democratic.

In terms of how I think about the Senate runoffs, I actually don't view it as a vote for Perdue/Loeffler vs. Ossof / Warnock. Rather, I see it more as a vote for Collins / Murkowski / Romney vs. a vote for Manchin / Sinema. Therefore, the difference to me is not as extreme as I think many Democrats see it. I still see value in a system where Democrats should be able to get at least one R to sign onto their legislation. In my mind as a moderate, that makes for more moderate legislation. And if the situations were reversed (Trump were re-elected with a narrow House majority, my thinking would absolutely be flipped). The fact that I'm contemplating voting straight Democratic for the runoffs is frankly what's quite incredible imo, and a reflection of how much the GOP has turned off voters like me.

In terms of legislation - you can look through some of my past points, but I really do worry about our ballooning deficit and national debt. I realize and agree Republicans have done nothing to control this, but I worry that giving Dems a trifecta will lead to excess spending in areas that I actually don't think are good for the broader economy. For example, I actually don't think those with student loans on average are struggling as much as those without (I say that as a college-educated voter who has student loans and would benefit from having them canceled).

There are two good points you and others have raised and I am digesting it. It is these two things which are preventing me from just following my typical instinct to not give Dems a trifecta. One is how much power does McConnell really have to prevent legislation from getting passed, assuming Murkowski, Romney or Collins agree. I frankly still don't fully understand this point and if you have any insights, I will be eager to hear. I agree with the Ds that he will try to obstruct Biden's agenda - the question I have, is to what extent can he do so with 51 or 52 votes.

The other point is I do not think highly of Loeffler or Perdue at all. The reason I've ruled out voting for Loeffler goes beyond just the fraud accusations. I think she's essentially running a dog whistle campaign (how she wasn't aware that was taking a picture with a prominent KKK member is frankly not even the tip of the iceberg for me) in the hopes that white voters like me secretly agree with her not so subtle references to Warnock's race. I find it honestly quite offensive, and frankly if I weren't comfortable living with black Americans, I wouldn't be living in metro Atlanta in the first place. This type of campaign to me is absolutely disqualifying and is why Warnock has my vote.

Perdue isn't running against Warnock, so you may argue that's why we haven't seen that sort of a campaign to this extent from his side, but I try to judge based on what I see, not on what I think I would see. This is where I think Dems and Reps tend to jump the gun, including on issues like packing the courts. I would prefer not to pack the courts; maybe my opinion would change if they started overturning Roe vs. Wade, Obergefell, etc. but I am not convinced hat they will do so. If Dems pack the courts, they will also have to contend with the very real likelihood that Repubs will do the same once they have the trifecta btw - an outcome I tend to think is just as likely in the future as Dems getting and maintaining one.

So for Perdue, my vote is really coming down to how much do I think Biden's agenda will be stonewalled vs. just moderated by Rs having a 51 seat majority in the Senate.

You need to understand that the senate is a slow a deliberative body. Years of precedent has given the senate majority leader basically unlimited power for setting the agenda, the only way to avoid that is for a majority of senators to sign a discharge petitions which hasn't happen in 18 years. The reason is that the majority leader controls committee allocations and hence can easily retaliate against any sign of disloyalty.

Now the senate also has the filibuster meaning that even if the dems tie the house, they will have to work with Republicans to get any sort of bill passed. Currently, Mcconel uses a rule where he refuses to bring a bill the floor unless a majority of republican support it so pretty much any legislation is DOA. If you want the democrats to pass anything even the most basic of bills please vote for both Warnock and Osofff, the far-left democrats and their ideas won't has any shot of passing now that the senate is tied.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Things must be looking good (for now) for Biden to cut an ad for this race:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1339555952127700992?s=20

[ProgressiveModerate]

Things must be looking good (for now) for Biden to cut an ad for this race:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1339555952127700992?s=20

Well, Biden did win more votes than Trump in the state so Democrats know that they have the votes needed to win. It's just about trying to activate those voters that have historically been iffy. If this was the Georgia from 8 years ago, I would've said this would be a dumb move but GA is fundementally different

[Rookie Yinzer]

My point was more about Biden deciding to go all in on this race knowing it will set the tone for his presidency.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My point was more about Biden deciding to go all in on this race knowing it will set the tone for his presidency.

True, it’s risky, but Biden generally seems like an optimistic dude so I’m not surprised.

[walleye26]

So according to what other posters have mentioned, about 23,000 18 year olds have “aged in” for this election since November, and there may be a few thousand people who have moved to Georgia since then and have registered. So, let’s just say 10,000 of them will turn out to vote. That would be about a 40% turnout rate. If they go 60/40 D-R that should give Warnock and Ossoff another 2K votes. Not a lot, but anything helps.
I’m also assuming that those who have died since November 3rd are probably older and more GOP-leaning. I know I’m doing some quick math, but would you guys agree with it?