Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread (user search)
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  Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread  (Read 257882 times)
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« on: November 07, 2020, 12:11:20 PM »
Megathread for Georgia senate seats runoff(s)
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2020, 05:30:22 AM »
If the Affordable Care Act gets strike down, oh boy...

There will be a lot of very angry Georgians heading to the poll
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2020, 07:53:33 PM »
GOP senator in critical race refuses to answer question 9 times

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/12/17/kelly-loeffler-biden-georgia-runoff-senate-cupp-sot-nr-vpx.cnn
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2020, 10:55:19 AM »
Quote from: Blairite on December 31, 2020, 10:51:26 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on December 31, 2020, 10:39:28 AM
2.85 million have voted as of yesterday.

Today will be huge (last early voting day !), so probably another 0.35 million today (incl. mail returns), maybe even 0.45 million.

That would be 3.2-3.3 million votes in total and maybe 100k-200k more mail ballots coming in until Tuesday night.

So is this election really only going to have three-quarters of November's turnout or are ~35% of votes going to be cast on election day? Because there's a lot of uncertainty depending on what ends up being the case.

Nobody really know what election day vote is going to be like.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2020, 12:10:01 PM »
https://www.georgiavotes.com/
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2021, 02:08:34 PM »
Could we all go back to discussing the runoff?

Thanks.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2021, 03:10:54 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 02, 2021, 03:03:05 PM
If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):




Are there any mailers saying why one should vote for Perdue and Loeffler?
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2021, 05:22:27 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 02, 2021, 03:26:18 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on January 02, 2021, 03:10:54 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 02, 2021, 03:03:05 PM
If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):



Are there any mailers saying why one should vote for Perdue and Loeffler?

There are plenty of mailers from the Perdue and Loeffler campaigns (sometimes from both campaigns jointly), but they're almost all negative, i.e. attacks on Warnock and Ossoff.  The Democrats' mailers that I get are a mix of positive and negative.  I get significantly more R than D mailers, probably because I live in Forsyth County.

That's what I guessed.

Perdue and Loeffler don't seem like candidates that people want to actually vote for.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2021, 05:50:10 PM »
Quote from: marty on January 02, 2021, 05:46:23 PM
Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

This is a turnout election.

Polls don't matter.

Whichever side has better turnout wins.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,851
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2021, 08:22:01 PM »
« Edited: January 02, 2021, 08:34:37 PM by pppolitics »
Quote from: marty on January 02, 2021, 08:08:51 PM
The person who took the Perdue picture is black, and is demanding Judd legum take down the tweet or legal action will be taken. Judd legum completely made up the story



LAMO

What is the guy going to do?

...file a lawsuit against someone for reposting a picture?
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2021, 10:41:23 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2021, 10:28:50 AM



What do the numbers mean?
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2021, 12:31:09 PM »




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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2021, 01:12:47 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2021, 01:17:45 PM by pppolitics »



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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2021, 01:13:11 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2021, 01:18:04 PM by pppolitics »

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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2021, 08:45:23 PM »
Is Loeffler attending the Trump rally tomorrow?
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2021, 08:57:41 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on January 03, 2021, 08:47:35 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on January 03, 2021, 08:45:23 PM
Is Loeffler attending the Trump rally tomorrow?

Yes. Perdue too, if he's somehow permitted to leave quarantine by then.

Is Republican senator(s?) standing with Trump right after he committed a crime going to change any minds?

Obviously, the hardcore Trumpers won't, but maybe there are a few voters here and there still on the fence.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2021, 10:29:46 PM »
What's the strategy behind Perdue quarantining?

I mean, if Perdue doesn't think that it's helping him, he would break the quarantine in a second.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2021, 10:46:58 PM »
Is someone on Atlas about to provide on-the-ground coverage of the runoffs on January 5?
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2021, 11:06:03 PM »

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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #19 on: January 03, 2021, 11:26:28 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on January 03, 2021, 11:22:43 PM
Can't wait til our new Senate Majority this week and Biden confirmation as Prez, we are on the verge of a Trifecta that we should of won in Nov

I think the old saying is: Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

This elections are so close that I think they can go either way.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2021, 11:43:31 AM »
Perdue makes clear that there is no daylight between him and Trump
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2021, 12:15:28 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on January 04, 2021, 11:54:56 AM
Quote from: pppolitics on January 04, 2021, 11:43:31 AM
Perdue makes clear that there is no daylight between him and Trump

Perdue needs the R base (not just reliable high-propensity ones but those drawn to Trump who might have otherwise decided to sit this one out) to turn out in force, so I don’t see what’s supposed to be surprising here. He’s betting on high R turnout + that the kind of genuinely 'persuadable' Biden voter (an incredibly small group) he can actually still reach will be moved by concerns about a D trifecta. It’s a narrow path of course, but it’s the only one he has!

It’s really not that hard to understand.

That is sadly true.

The Republican Party has become the cult of Trump.

Aside from a few exceptions, one has to be a Trump bootlicker to have any chance of winning as a Republican.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2021, 02:10:04 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2021, 04:38:53 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2021, 04:50:34 PM by pppolitics »
The Case For Republicans In Georgia vs. The Case For Democrats

Quote
Nathaniel: The case for Democrats

As mentioned, Ossoff and Warnock each lead in our polling average by about 2 percentage points. To be sure, those numbers still point to an election that could go either way, but if you had to choose a favorite based on them, you’d have to pick the Democrats. I know polling had an off year in 2020, but the reality is that polls are still our best tool for forecasting elections, and it’s really hard, if not impossible, to predict which direction any polling error will run. Plus, while it’s true that polling of the 2020 election overall wasn’t very accurate, polls of Georgia were actually pretty good: FiveThirtyEight’s final polling average of the presidential race in the Peach State was just 1 point off the final margin.

It’s not just the polling, though: The fundraising numbers look even better for Democrats. From Oct. 15 to Dec. 16, Ossoff raised $106.8 million and Warnock raised $103.4 million. Not only is that more than Perdue’s $68.1 million and Loeffler’s $64.0 million, but it’s also more than any Senate candidate had ever raised in a single quarter before (and Oct. 15-Dec. 16 is only two months, not three!).

[...]

Quote
Geoffrey: The case for Republicans

Republicans may be slightly behind in the polls, but we should be cautious about reading too much into these surveys as it’s hard to say the slim Democratic edge is all that meaningful. Polls have routinely disagreed over who is in the lead and nearly every survey has fallen within the margin of error. What’s more, there just haven’t been that many high quality polls — just two of the 16 firms that have surveyed Georgia since November have a FiveThirtyEight pollster rating that is higher than a B. This is unfortunate, but not surprising given many pollsters are gun-shy after polling misses in November. Simply put, a small polling error in the GOP’s direction wouldn’t be that surprising and furthermore, it would be enough to give Loeffler and Perdue the advantage.

Republicans also trail in fundraising, but here, too, it’s unclear whether Democrats really have an advantage. First, both Loeffler and Perdue have still raised plenty of moolah, and studies find that in situations where both campaigns are well-funded and neither side has a real ad-buy advantage, their efforts tend to cancel each other out. Second, much of the money fueling these campaigns is from out of state. This is true for the Republicans’ campaigns, but it’s especially true for the Democrats’, meaning the mountains of cash pouring in doesn’t tell us all that much about Georgia voter preferences. As we saw in November, strong fundraising numbers for Democratic Senate nominees were largely a smoke screen — many fell short despite significantly outraising their GOP opponents. Granted, some of these races were in states far redder than Georgia, but this was also true in Maine, a state Biden carried, and North Carolina, a state Trump narrowly carried.

[...]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-republicans-in-georgia-vs-the-case-for-democrats/
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,851
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2021, 04:48:43 PM »

What does that means?
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