Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Brittain33]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

What if there are tens of thousands of low-information Trump voters who didn’t bother to vote for Senate? That would allow for a large number of Biden-Purdue voters.

I guess that could be it, but from a cursory glance at the data I see more evidence of Biden voters not voting for senate than Trump voters, and in the absence of such evidence I would hesitate to say that there were enough of them to make up that 80k gap.

Isn't it possible that lots of Trump voters didn't vote for Senate, some Biden voters didn't vote for Senate, and a large number of Biden voters voted for Purdue?

[ProgressiveModerate]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

What if there are tens of thousands of low-information Trump voters who didn’t bother to vote for Senate? That would allow for a large number of Biden-Purdue voters.

I guess that could be it, but from a cursory glance at the data I see more evidence of Biden voters not voting for senate than Trump voters, and in the absence of such evidence I would hesitate to say that there were enough of them to make up that 80k gap.

Isn't it possible that lots of Trump voters didn't vote for Senate, some Biden voters didn't vote for Senate, and a large number of Biden voters voted for Purdue?

It does seem to me that the largest drop-offs were in large part in D-leaning counties though, though overall that isn't much, since overall about 99.1% of people who voted in the GE also voted in the Osoff-Perdue Senate race. Unless those remaining 0.9% were almost entirely Biden, there definately was some Biden-Perdue or Biden-Hazel ticket splitting going on.

[forsythvoter]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

What if there are tens of thousands of low-information Trump voters who didn’t bother to vote for Senate? That would allow for a large number of Biden-Purdue voters.

I guess that could be it, but from a cursory glance at the data I see more evidence of Biden voters not voting for senate than Trump voters, and in the absence of such evidence I would hesitate to say that there were enough of them to make up that 80k gap.

I'm not sure you can say that the dropoff is exclusively or even mostly a Biden / downballot D thing though. There are almost certainly also lower information voters who showed up to vote for Trump and didn't bother to keep voting downballot.

Also, fwiw, I just looked up the results for my home precinct (Windermere, Forsyth County)

Trump: 4599 (58.7%)
Biden: 3233 (41.3%)

Perdue: 4689 (60.8%)
Ossoff: 3021 (39.2%)

Perdue got 2.1% more of the votes cast than Trump did, and 90 more raw votes, just in this one precinct. Even if you assumed that every single Trump voted voted for Perdue (which is certainly not true as I personally have a neighbor who is a Trump / Ossoff voter), this would mean at least 3% of Biden voters crossed over to vote for Perdue. I would estimate the real number is 4-5% of Biden voters crossing over, offset by 1-2% of Trump voters crossing over.

And for reference, here are the 2016 and 2012 results:

Trump: 3735 (67.4%)
Hillary: 1805 (32.6%)

Romney: 4470 (80.9%)
Obama: 1057 (19.1%)

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20

Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue? 👀

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20

Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue? 👀

Wow, what a cuck.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20

Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue? 👀

Wow, what a cuck.

This woman is a troll. Perdue had no way to know who she was.

[brucejoel99]

The better question is why, though? Jan. 6th is after the runoff, so there's no political incentive for him to do so.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20

Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue? 👀

Wow, what a cuck.

This woman is a troll. Perdue had no way to know who she was.

I would argue that it might be worse that Perdue will just say whatever he needs to to these poor dupes to get elected than it would be if he just had genuinely bad beliefs.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20

Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue?

Wow, what a cuck.

This woman is a troll. Perdue had no way to know who she was.

So he just lied to a random constituent? That's even more pathetic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The better question is why, though? Jan. 6th is after the runoff, so there's no political incentive for him to do so.

More to the point: Perdue won't even be in the Senate on Jan. 6, win or lose the runoff.  His current term ends on Jan. 3, so the seat will be vacant until the runoff winner is certified, which won't happen until well after Jan. 6.

The same doesn't apply for Loeffler.  She's filling the remainder of Johnny Isakson's unfinished term, so she'll stay in the Senate throughout this period.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've never been much for the yard sign game, and in any case have seen very few signs for the Senate runoffs.  The exception was today, when we drove to the houses of some of our relatives for (socially distanced) Christmas gift drop-off and pick-up.  In one well-to-do suburban neighborhood in Loganville, which straddles the Gwinnett-Walton county border, there were several houses with Warnock and Ossoff signs.

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1340392013162835970?s=20

Forsythvoter, you still considering Perdue? 👀

Wow, what a cuck.

Is there a video or something or is it just some woman’s tweet we’re going off of?

Just would prefer to know he did actually say that, though I wouldn’t be surprised. He seems like a career politician willing to say anything to get elected.

[EastwoodS]

I've never been much for the yard sign game, and in any case have seen very few signs for the Senate runoffs.  The exception was today, when we drove to the houses of some of our relatives for (socially distanced) Christmas gift drop-off and pick-up.  In one well-to-do suburban neighborhood in Loganville, which straddles the Gwinnett-Walton county border, there were several houses with Warnock and Ossoff signs.

Stupid, why on earth would “well to-do” People vote for them? Did Trump hurt a bunch of yoga moms  emotional and impulsive feelings again?🥺 we’ll see how the practicality of Democratic legislation makes them feel. No more trips to ~lulu lemon~ and the overpriced no-bake cookie dough shop; Biden took away our cozy expendable income😰

[brucejoel99]

I've never been much for the yard sign game, and in any case have seen very few signs for the Senate runoffs.  The exception was today, when we drove to the houses of some of our relatives for (socially distanced) Christmas gift drop-off and pick-up.  In one well-to-do suburban neighborhood in Loganville, which straddles the Gwinnett-Walton county border, there were several houses with Warnock and Ossoff signs.

Stupid, why on earth would “well to-do” People vote for them? Did Trump hurt a bunch of yoga moms  emotional and impulsive feelings again?🥺 we’ll see how the practicality of Democratic legislation makes them feel. No more trips to ~lulu lemon~ and the overpriced no-bake cookie dough shop; Biden took away our cozy expendable income😰

Karen, this is a laundromat.

[SCNCmod]

Are they doing Souls to the Polls in any areas?  The Sundays (& maybe Wednesdays) around Christmas are probably among the highest church attendance days.

Something like this could make a huge difference- because I think Dems will need black voters & young voters to make up a higher % of total voters to win the runoff (I think the Dem senate candidates will see a drop in suburban republican-Biden voters).  Soul to the Polls could help with black voters- not sure what the best GOTV event would be for young voters?

[T0rM3nTeD]

12/21 Update - 1.47M votes so far

Total of 569,504 (+88K) mail ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.321M (+21K) mail ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)
Total of 901,640 (+259K) EIP votes so far (2.694M in the General)

Breakdown of those votes by county following same percentages that they broke in the General would result in:

Dems - 790,032 (+193K)
GOP - 681,112 (+154K)
===============
Dems +108,920 (+38K)

[wbrocks67]

Depends on which counties had Early Vote yesterday, but it looks like Souls to the Polls may have happened yesterday with a big impact. Accepted VBM continues to get less and less white too.

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white

[tagimaucia]

I wonder when the AJC/UGA poll that's supposedly been in the field is dropping. That's probably the closest thing to a GA gold standard at this point, given how erratic and odd Landmark/WSB'S polls were this year. 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1341046361060306944
new poll showing Ossoff outperforming Warnock.

[Sharpshooter]

Its worth noting that poll is older than the Emerson poll.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just voted in Newton County. Straight Dem of course.

[brucejoel99]

Just voted in Newton County. Straight Dem of course.

Dang, & here I would've pegged you for a pragmatic STRONG CANDIDATE Perdue/Warnock split-ticket voter.

[SCNCmod]

Its worth noting that poll is older than the Emerson poll.

I don't trust any polls too much in the runoff b/c the big unknown is the turnout model.

But the RMG Poll was 8th-14th & Emerson was 14th-16th.  RMG has Ossoff & Warnock leading by 1&2 pts ... Emerson has Ossoff & Warnock losing by 3 pts.  I'm guessing there wasn't that big of a shift between those 2 back to back polling periods. The difference is prob found in the variation of turnout models used.

[SCNCmod]

Polling Question- Based on GA Dec Poll results:

Do polls taken on weekends tend to favor Dems more than polls during the week? (or on the flip side, do polls during the week tend to favor Republicans more than weekend polls?)

I've noticed that the 2 December polls that have both Ossoff & Warnock leading (Survey USA & RMG) both include weekend days ... where as the 3 that have both Ossof & Warnock losing (Insider Adv, Emerson, Trafalgar) were all taken exclusively during the week (Mon-Thur).

[Sharpshooter]

Do people think following Nate Cohn's analysis today Democrats are now slight favorites?