Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

No poll leaks after the blackout?

Oh yea, most of these are from Sunday, I haven't had much time lately.

CADEM: Approve 38 (+1) and Reject 48 (+2)
UDD: Approve 39 | Reject 49
Activa: Approve 32.7 | Reject 48.9

Campaign ends today and Approve deployed its last card: Michelle Bachelet appeared in the Franja Electoral. She is the only ex-president that has some sway over public opinion, but the gap is too big for it to matter.

[Lumine]

No poll leaks after the blackout?

Oh yea, most of these are from Sunday, I haven't had much time lately.

CADEM: Approve 38 (+1) and Reject 48 (+2)
UDD: Approve 39 | Reject 49
Activa: Approve 32.7 | Reject 48.9

Campaign ends today and Approve deployed its last card: Michelle Bachelet appeared in the Franja Electoral. She is the only ex-president that has some sway over public opinion, but the gap is too big for it too matter.

(I've always found that poll hilarious, because you just know the 6% for Piñera is people who would vote against the option he advocates for)

There is a certain tendency lately to promote a number of "mathematical models" - that track social media interaction among other things - to suggest the polls are wrong and Approve will triumph, but the polls themselves show results as being fairly clear and not having changed that much in the past few weeks.

But we'll see. I still think Approve can win depending on turnout - anecdotal evidence suggests this is a common belief for people in the right, partly due to still being shellshocked from past electoral debacles -, but thus far this is the closest I've been to feeling Reject has a serious chance and it's not just hype.

I'm also beyond sick of the campaign and grateful it ends today, really looking forward to Monday and what happens afterward (particularly the cabinet reshuffle).

[kaoras]

(I've always found that poll hilarious, because you just know the 6% for Piñera is people who would vote against the option he advocates for)

There is a certain tendency lately to promote a number of "mathematical models" - that track social media interaction among other things - to suggest the polls are wrong and Approve will triumph, but the polls themselves show results as being fairly clear and not having changed that much in the past few weeks.

But we'll see. I still think Approve can win depending on turnout - anecdotal evidence suggests this is a common belief for people in the right, partly due to still being shellshocked from past electoral debacles -, but thus far this is the closest I've been to feeling Reject has a serious chance and it's not just hype.

I'm also beyond sick of the campaign and grateful it ends today, really looking forward to Monday and what happens afterward (particularly the cabinet reshuffle).

Approve people say the same thing about turnout but I don't see it. As I said earlier, I find more likely that all those apolitical people just vote to punish Boric and whatever. Also, most polls show that is Reject who does better when you don't filter likely voters.

I am also glad this is going to end, but I do not look forward to the circus that is going to be negotiations and future convention 2.0. As much fun as nationwide closed party lists would be for us political junkies, PDG or similar winning is gonna be awful.

[Mike88]

No real change in polling then. Well, Chilean polls are normally very reliable, from what I've seen in past elections, but of course, like Lumine pointed, sometimes polls fail to capture the the true, or hidden, mood of the electorate. Not saying this is the case here, but elections across the world, lately, have been diverging from polling, just look what happened in my country. Polling is a snap shot of a certain moment, but electorates are so volatile and on edge lately, that any could happen really. But, again, I'm not so certain that it's the case in this referendum.

[kaoras]

Yesterday there were the campaign closures nationwide for both options. In Santiago, Approve did an impressive show of strength with 500.000 people in the capital main avenue.



This was a stark contrast with the Reject act that gathered only a few hundred people.



Now, to be fair. Is very clear that the Reject one wasn't intended to be a massive rally (and their voters aren't very prone to go to rallies to begin with) but it was still terrible optics from them, which led to memes such as these:

[kaoras]

Leaked polls:

UDD: Approve 39 Reject 49 (no change)
Cadem: Approve 40 (+2) Reject 45 (-3) | Without undecideds Approve 47 (+3) Reject 53 (-3)

Criteria has these scenarios:


Without undecideds and no likely voters, its last poll on early August was Approve 44,4 - Reject 55,6

[jaichind]

Yesterday there were the campaign closures nationwide for both options. In Santiago, Approve did an impressive show of strength with 500.000 people in the capital main avenue.


This was a stark contrast with the Reject act that gathered only a few hundred people.


Now, to be fair. Is very clear that the Reject one wasn't intended to be a massive rally (and their voters aren't very prone to go to rallies to begin with) but it was still terrible optics from them, which led to memes such as these:

If so is it wise for the "Approve" to have such a massive rally since the "Approve" camp should want a lower turnout?

The 1990s-2010s were the heyday of mega political election rallies on ROC.  Most post-election polling and analysis indicated that mega political election rallies only help in multi-cornered races where massive turnout for rallies helps in getting the tactical vote but in bipolar elections, massive rallies merely pushed up turnout for the opposing camp.

[kaoras]

Yesterday there were the campaign closures nationwide for both options. In Santiago, Approve did an impressive show of strength with 500.000 people in the capital main avenue.


This was a stark contrast with the Reject act that gathered only a few hundred people.


Now, to be fair. Is very clear that the Reject one wasn't intended to be a massive rally (and their voters aren't very prone to go to rallies to begin with) but it was still terrible optics from them, which led to memes such as these:

If so is it wise for the "Approve" to have such a massive rally since the "Approve" camp should want a lower turnout?

The 1990s-2010s were the heyday of mega political election rallies on ROC.  Most post-election polling and analysis indicated that mega political election rallies only help in multi-cornered races where massive turnout for rallies helps in getting the tactical vote but in bipolar elections, massive rallies merely pushed up turnout for the opposing camp.

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

[Mike88]

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

Wait, voting in the referendum is compulsory? Wasn't that scrapped 10 years ago?

[kaoras]

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

Wait, voting in the referendum is compulsory? Wasn't that scrapped 10 years ago?

Yes, it was part of the 2019 deal that started the whole process. So far is only for this specific plebiscite, but is likely that it ends up extended for all elections.  

[kaoras]

New UDD:

Approve 41 (+2) Reject 51 (+2) | Likely voters: Approve 47 (+1) Reject 53 (-1)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So what exactly happens assuming reject wins? Is there not another chance at changing the constitution in the short term really?

[Oryxslayer]

So what exactly happens assuming reject wins? Is there not another chance at changing the constitution in the short term really?

Boric plans to call a new convention, but this would require a new election of delegates, perhaps under different rules. If this were to occur, the conservatives would likely control a significant number of votes  compared to the present body, given the change in political climate and in President, and the grassroots lists would likely suffer compared to the national one. So any product of this convention would be notably different, and perhaps more acceptable, then the current document.

[Mike88]

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

Wait, voting in the referendum is compulsory? Wasn't that scrapped 10 years ago?

Yes, it was part of the 2019 deal that started the whole process. So far is only for this specific plebiscite, but is likely that it ends up extender for all elections. 

Are there any penalties for those who don't vote or is it just compulsory on paper with no real consequences if you don't vote?

[kaoras]

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

Wait, voting in the referendum is compulsory? Wasn't that scrapped 10 years ago?

Yes, it was part of the 2019 deal that started the whole process. So far is only for this specific plebiscite, but is likely that it ends up extender for all elections. 

Are there any penalties for those who don't vote or is it just compulsory on paper with no real consequences if you don't vote?

Fine between 30 and 180 USD. SERVEL has said they will have to denounce "everyone that doesn't vote"

[Mike88]

Well, voting is compulsory, so in theory it shouldn't matter. Pollster put different turnout scenarios because is the first election with compulsory voting and automatic inscription. The Approve camp also beliefs that higher turnout helps them because of lower income and youth voters (even if there's isn't much rationale if you look at polling, for example youth turnout has been very high since 2019). The rally was also much needed morale boost after very rough weeks.

Wait, voting in the referendum is compulsory? Wasn't that scrapped 10 years ago?

Yes, it was part of the 2019 deal that started the whole process. So far is only for this specific plebiscite, but is likely that it ends up extender for all elections. 

Are there any penalties for those who don't vote or is it just compulsory on paper with no real consequences if you don't vote?

Fine between 30 and 180 USD. SERVEL has said they will have to denounce "everyone that doesn't vote"

Yikes, that's a pretty big fine taking into account wages in Chile.

[njwes]

Unrelated but is Boric still doing embarrassing Twitter stuff e.g. Taylor Swift discourse or has be become more dignified?

[kaoras]

Unrelated but is Boric still doing embarrassing Twitter stuff e.g. Taylor Swift discourse or has be become more dignified?

I don't follow twitter but given that I haven't heard from it in while I think he is boring again.

[kaoras]

One of the most interesting political developments in the likely event of Reject victory is the effect on the center-left parties.

Officially all the center-left parties, including the Christian Democrats, are supporting approve, but many of its old guard figures have been spearheading the Reject campaign, especially DC ones (most of their congressmen are actually for Reject). This has caused a lot of internal tension. The Radical Party suspended the militancy of its ex-president Carlos Maldonado and I have heard a lot of rumors of a DC split post plebiscite.

Mario Desbordes (RN) has talked about doing a formal alliance with them. Could be this the rebirth of the tres tercios?

[kaoras]

Voting has begun in Australia and New Zealand. The foreign vote is always landslides for the left but is very small, smaller than the smallest region (Aysén).

It has also come to my attention that we will get the results from Magallanes in the far south one hour early because they have a different time zone. Magallanes voted Boric 61%, but its leftwing bias is volatile. Still, approve should want to be at least at 54% there to have a chance.

[kaoras]

Also, last polls:

Black and White: Approve 45 (+3) Reject 55 (-3)
Activa: All voters Approve 41.8 (+1,7) Reject 58,2 (-1,7). Likely Voters: Approve 46,6 (+1,5) Reject 54,4 (-1,5)

[Mike88]

Any results from overseas areas? Australia, New Zealand?

[Mike88]

Any results from overseas areas? Australia, New Zealand?

Found them: https://www.meganoticias.cl/nacional/388519-plebiscito-de-salida-2022-resultados-preliminares-en-el-extranjero.html

Australia:

67.2% Approve
32.8% Disapprove

Japan:

67.6% Approve
32.4% Disapprove

South Korea:

63.7% Approve
36.3% Disapprove

New Zealand:

75.8% Approve
24.2% Disapprove

So far, compared with the runoff of the 2021 elections, Approve is down around 8-10% compared with Boric's results in these countries.

[crals]

Any chance a miracle happens and approve wins? Boric won with a margin of over 10%, so maybe...

[jaichind]

I assume polls close in Chile 5PM EST.  Any link to results ?