Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

In the last few days there has been several truckers protest, blocking several highways nationwide. They don't even have a list of demands but some repeat complains against violence in the highways and fuel prices (they want even more subsidies). They have attacked truckers that haven't joined the protests and even journalist.

Izkia Siches gave them an ultimatum to clear the highways today by 4pm. Since they didn't complain, the goverment applied the State Security Law and ordered the police to clear the roads.

I take back everything bad I have ever said about Boric, this is absolutely based. Finally a government stands up to those organized thugs that regularly take the country hostage.

[Lumine]

Maybe, just maybe, the truckers are also a bit tired of being shot at for doing their job while the present administration is not only as powerless as the previous one to maintain order, but also less publically committed to at least trying.

Not that the truckers as a whole don't have significant privileges and often whine too much, but let's not act like everything's going wonderful for them (particularly the unfortunate ones that have to drive through the Araucania).

[kaoras]

And the answer to that is to assault drivers that don't join the protest in Arica? Nah, of all people truck drivers don't get to cry. If they weren't so transparent that they are using the terrorism in Araucanía as a cover to not pay TAG and get even more subsidies maybe I would be more sympathetic to them.

[Lumine]

Another Sunday, and we have new polls:

BORIC APPROVAL:

CADEM: 35% (-1) / 53% (=) / 12% (+1)
PULSO CIUDADANO: 24% (-4) / 58% (+7)  / 18% (-3)

PLEBISCITE:

CADEM: Approve 36% (-1) / Reject 46% (=) / Other 18% (+1)
PULSO CIUDADANO: Approve 29% (-3) / Reject 41% (+4) / Other 30% (-1)

CADEM also has Siches dropping from 54% approval in March to 33%. And we continue the anomaly of Cadem giving greater approval numbers and a better prospect to Approve than Pulso Ciudadano, which is the opposite scenario one would have expected last year.

I still don't buy the numbers against the Boric administration being that harsh - surely people's expectations didn't crash that badly? -, but... it's not an encouraging prospect right now.

Four months to go until the plebiscite.

[Oryxslayer]

I still don't buy the numbers against the Boric administration being that harsh - surely people's expectations didn't crash that badly? -, but... it's not an encouraging prospect right now.

This is the great failure of the Two-Round runoff system: the way it encourages people to view the parties and politicians means that it is incredibly easy to lose popular support, and a struggle to claw back any approval.

[kaoras]

Another Sunday, and we have new polls:

BORIC APPROVAL:

CADEM: 35% (-1) / 53% (=) / 12% (+1)
PULSO CIUDADANO: 24% (-4) / 58% (+7)  / 18% (-3)

PLEBISCITE:

CADEM: Approve 36% (-1) / Reject 46% (=) / Other 18% (+1)
PULSO CIUDADANO: Approve 29% (-3) / Reject 41% (+4) / Other 30% (-1)

CADEM also has Siches dropping from 54% approval in March to 33%. And we continue the anomaly of Cadem giving greater approval numbers and a better prospect to Approve than Pulso Ciudadano, which is the opposite scenario one would have expected last year.

I still don't buy the numbers against the Boric administration being that harsh - surely people's expectations didn't crash that badly? -, but... it's not an encouraging prospect right now.

Four months to go until the plebiscite.

CADEM giving better numbers than Activa is not an anomaly. The Activa panel has always been weird and it doesn't have a left lean (unlike Data Influyes). In fact, the only consistent thing about Activa is that they give low numbers for literally everything because they always have many undecideds.

Regarding Boric, from what I have seen he is holding up well enough among the youth and leftists but other than that I buy that people have literally 0 patience right now. A huge factor is the widespread malaise in the country, violence in schools, Araucanía, inmigration crisis, the convention woes... Add to all that a very unfriendly media that still has a ridiculous amount of sway among the populace and those numbers aren't that hard to believe.

What I would say is so far the discontent doesn't seem particularly deep but I don't really see any long term solution for Boric. He didn't have a plan for the first few months unlike every goverment before, so the agenda has been totally dedicated to all the problems of the country. And he doesn't have the parlamentary majorities nor the political skills to carry out his reforms, and even if he did, the media and the right wing "experts" would trash them to oblivion like they did with Bachelet's (or are currently doing with the Convention) and make them unpopular. Since he also totally caved to economic orthodoxy he isn't really able to push any populist measure that could help him weather the discontent either.

I'm still surprised that it took a month for him to reach this level (I was thinking about a year), but honestly, the only thing surprising about this is the speed, nothing else.

[kaoras]

Also, the polls keep getting worse for the Convention but I still think Approve will rebound with the campaing. The problem is that this will end up in extreme polarization either way.

Even if there's actually a third way after a Reject victory, both the left and the right would have 1/3 in either Congress or a new convention and that would lead to unholy levels of gridlock. Is hard to be optimistc about the political situation in the medium term.

Honestly, all of this dumpster fire, social uprising included even, could have been avoided if the right and the elites didn't treat Bachelet as the second coming of Lenin, no wonder she is back at the top of popularity ratings in CADEM

[jaichind]

TuInfluyes poll has new constitution accept/reject at 37/46

[kaoras]

The convention finished its constitutional draft, with 499 articles. Now the harmonization and transitory norms committees will work until July eliminating redundancies and stablishing how the transition would work. You cand read it here in Spanish:

I read (some) parts of it and I think is fairly good, but with plenty of elements that can be used for terror campaigns. Some highlights are an unified National Health Service, end of the voucher system for public education funding, nationalization of water rights (_{If you ever wondered why central-north Chile is the most left wing region of the country despite being rural, it has a lot to do with the current water market that has dried rivers and left communities without water for human consumption, with private companies and rich landowners even stealing water sources to plant luxury crops such as avocados}), opens the way for legalization of abortion beyond the current requirements (Mother's life, rape and unviability), and actual decentralization, which includes that comunas and regions could fix and build roads without Santiago getting involved THANK GOODNESS.

Polling still shows an uphill climb, though CADEM has Approve recovering a bit (38-46)

[kaoras]

PS is having internal elections. They have an indirect system, electing 110 people to its central comité that will choose its leadership.

PS used to be a very factional party but nowadays each "tendency" is more like and old relict than a meaningful distinction. Almost all the factions joined forces in a list called "Unidad Socialista" which has everything from infamous expresident Camilo Escalona (which once said that thinking about changing the constitution was like "smoking opium") to hardcore Bacheletists like Paulina Vodanovic and leftist such as mapuche deputy Emilia Nuyado. Other lists are "Socialistas por un cambio necesario" (the "dissidence" to the current directive, close to current minister Maya Fernandez) and the far edge of the left wing, "Socialistas socialistas de Izquierda" (not a typo), which supported Jadue in the presidential primaries.

The main competition is between the figures inside Unidad Socialista, and the favourite is Alfonso De Urresti, senator for Los Ríos (my senator). It is very unusual for a party to be led by someone from regions, but De Urresti is shady, with a mafia style approach to internal politics. Oh well...

[kaoras]

Update on PS elections:

Unidad Socialista, predictably, got 76% of the vote. What was somewhat surprising was who topped the poll. It was former senatorial candidate Paulina Vodanovic, very close to Bachelet (she was president of Bachelet's ONG, Horizonte Ciudadano). Second was Camilo Escalona and Alfonso de Urresti came third.

The 110-member central committee still must choose party president, and while De Urresti was seen as the consensus candidate before the vote, after the results, Vodanovic has started making plays for the leadership.

In other news, emergency state on Araucanía roads was reinstated and Ana Lya Uriarte, former Bachelet right hand and chief of staff, has become Izkia Siches' chief of staff, completing the restructuration of her team after very rough months full of gaffes.

[kaoras]

Surprise, after the results of PS election factionalism is back! (kinda, the main factions don't really have any ideological difference)

Paulina Vodanovic has sealed and alliance with Camilo Escalona. She will become party president while Escalona will be General Secretary, sidelining De Urresti.

Vodanovic has not really said anything meaningful in her recent interviews outside that the party should strongly support Approve and the government. Escalona, after being MIA since losing the senatorial election in 2017, gave a lengthy interview to The Clinic explaining that he came back because "experience is needed" and he wants to help the government to pass his reforms. He says that Boric shouldn't be like the Concertación that lost his will to do reforms over the course of time and compared the challenges he faced with Allende, saying he faces the opposition of the business class and the extreme left, but the most dangerous was the business class opposition.

He says that Big Bussiness have tried to "anule" the goverment since day one, unlike with Allende when they were quiet for a few months, that their influence has "unimaginable tentacles" and that they use the media under his control to debilitate the government.

Honestly, all of that is kinda based? I'm as shocked as everyone else. Vodanovic+Escalona seems the least bad option for PS considering that De Urresti is a disaster waiting to happen.

[kaoras]

Polling Update

Criteria: Approve 31 (nc) - Reject 37 (nc) | Boric 32% approval (-1) - 49% disapproval (-3)

Activa: Approve 28,5 (+1,4) Reject 45,2 (-0,3) | Boric 27,3% approval (+3,3) - 56,8% disapproval (-4,3)

DataInfluyes: Approve 40 (+3) - Reject 45 (-1) | Boric 35% Approval (+3) - 49% disapproval (-1)

CADEM: Approve 42 (+5) - Reject 45 (nc) | Boric 44% approval (+8) - 47% disapproval (-10)

CEP: Approve 25- Reject 27 | Boric 32% approval - 49% disapproval.

Slight recovery for Approve with the release of the draft of the new constitution. CADEM also has a big Boric bump due to his public address to the nation on June 1st, these kinds of bumps fade very quickly though it remains to be seen if the Approve bump does as well (because despite the claims of literacy-challenged journalists, Approve and Boric support have not shown any consistent correlation so far)

Data influyes also asked undecideds if some public figure could sway their opinion and the only ones with non-negligible number of responses were Michelle Bachelet (11%) and Pamela Jiles (8%).

[kaoras]

Bachelet announced that she will not seek another term as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and will come back to Chile in August, a few weeks before the plebiscite.

Of course, everyone lost its sh**t. The government and the left say she could be an important asset for Approve while the right is either calling for her to not get involved in the plebiscite or saying that she come back because she couldn't get reelected or something.

Fun stuff, and honestly, she could tip the balance somewhat among low-income people. But all the attention is still kinda disproportionate, is just that she really triggers the right for reasons I don't entirely understand.

Latest polls: CADEM: Approve 39 (-3) | Reject 43(-2)
Activa: Approve 29,7 (+1,2) | Reject 41,9 (-3,3)

[Mike88]

Bachelet announced that she will not seek another term as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and will come back to Chile in August, a few weeks before the plebiscite.

Of course, everyone lost its sh**t. The government and the left say she could be an important asset for Approve while the right is either calling for her to not get involved in the plebiscite or saying that she come back because she couldn't get reelected or something.

Fun stuff, and honestly, she could tip the balance somewhat among low-income people. But all the attention is still kinda disproportionate, is just that she really triggers the right for reasons I don't entirely understand.

Latest polls: CADEM: Approve 39 (-3) | Reject 43(-2)
Activa: Approve 29,7 (+1,2) | Reject 41,9 (-3,3)

How is Bachelet record as a UN Commissionaire seen? The media reports about her resignation, at least in my country, completely trash her record, citting human rights association that say she "whitewashed atrocities".

[PSOL]

Boric has deployed troops to the South to quash the Mapuches.

My hatred of PCCh is at its zenith.

[kaoras]

Bachelet announced that she will not seek another term as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and will come back to Chile in August, a few weeks before the plebiscite.

Of course, everyone lost its sh**t. The government and the left say she could be an important asset for Approve while the right is either calling for her to not get involved in the plebiscite or saying that she come back because she couldn't get reelected or something.

Fun stuff, and honestly, she could tip the balance somewhat among low-income people. But all the attention is still kinda disproportionate, is just that she really triggers the right for reasons I don't entirely understand.

Latest polls: CADEM: Approve 39 (-3) | Reject 43(-2)
Activa: Approve 29,7 (+1,2) | Reject 41,9 (-3,3)

How is Bachelet record as a UN Commissionaire seen? The media reports about her resignation, at least in my country, completely trash her record, citting human rights association that say she "whitewashed atrocities".

Ah, that's Amnesty International criticizing her recent travel to China. They are always very strenuous about everything, just ask the Apartheid State of Israel. Here is more nuanced because, since is Bachelet, they always keep an eye on her and you can see that she has not, in fact, whitewashed atrocities at any point.

[kaoras]

Boric has deployed troops to the South to quash the Mapuches.

My hatred of PCCh is at its zenith.

Well, maybe you can read about the conflict on some source that isn't super lefty tanky woke International english news site. One of the big catalyst of Boric finally caving and declaring state of emergency was the death of a Mapuche forest worker, killed by radical organizations.

And also, as someone who actually knows Araucanía, most of those Mapuche organizations aren't even romantic eco-fighters, I had never known anyone more knowledgeable about eucaliptus than the guys working with the CAM in their ocuppied plantations.

[H. Ross Peron]

Boric has deployed troops to the South to quash the Mapuches.

My hatred of PCCh is at its zenith.

Well, maybe you can read about the conflict on some source that isn't super lefty tanky woke International english news site. One of the big catalyst of Boric finally caving and declaring state of emergency was the death of a Mapuche forest worker, killed by radical organizations.

Sadly, it seems to me a lot of the Aracuania conflict involves violence against other Mapuche.

[kaoras]

Latest Cadem has the Approve bump over with 37-46 for reject. They will have to do one hell of a campaign to turn things around.

They also political figures ratings:



Most popular are Metropolitan Region governor Claudio Orrego (DC), Providencia mayor Evelyn Matthei (UDI) and Michelle Bachelet (PS).  Most unpopular are UDI president Javier Macaya, Republican congressmen Rojo Edwards and Daniel Jadue (PC).

They also felt like asking for each ex-president (given some minor controversy regarding invitations to the ending ceremony of the convention, in the end no one could/wanted to attend).

Michelle Bachelet +21 (57 Positive | 36 Negative)
Eduardo Frei Ruiz Tagle +1 (46 Positive - 45 Negative)
Ricardo Lagos -4 (44 positive - 48 negative)
Sebastian Piñera -20 (36 positive - 56 negative)

Keep in mind that for some reason CADEM always finds higher approval numbers for everyone. Still, very funny that Frei is now slightly more popular than Lagos considering how bad his government was regarded at the time and how popular Lagos was when he left office. The student movement and the general reckoning regarding the 30 años really destroyed his image.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Here’s the official proposal for the new constitution. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KMOsgbBErPD_rUmHmUIw9bf0EC11yDEE/view

[Lumine]

Polls continue to be grim for both the government and for Approve, with only two months to go. Having said that, and despite a ceaseless stream of gaffes or communication mistakes, today's ceremony in which the final proposal was delivered seems to have gone well, without any overt mistakes and a rather measured tone.

Definetly not ruling out an Approve comeback during the campaign if they can keep it up, but some of the more controversial - or egocentric - members of the Convention seem determined to campaign and be as much as possible in the public eye (a similar issue plagues Reject, with some unpopular right-wing politicians also unwilling to shut up), so it's hard to tell. All in all, there appears to be a "consensus" that the end result will be close either way, and that Reject has the edge.

[kaoras]

Yeah, also the DC is tearing itself apart over the plebiscite, with deep divisions between Approve and Reject, the directive wants to take an unequivocal posture.

The leading reject shill on the DC is senator Ximena Rincón who really wants to keep his job and has a solid barrage of arguments such as this: https://twitter.com/ximerincon/status/1543979373560098816

Reject is winning with things like this or other stupidities and fake news like saying you won't be hable to inherit your home or that it will be illegal to sell icecreams. Honestly this country is beyond salvation, we should have just let it burn itself to the ground (which will probably happen in a few years anyway when people realize that "Reject to reform" is going to be at best cosmetic changes)

[Mike88]

This referendum and Constitution seems to be following that famous motto: Everything changes, just for everything to stay the same.

Also, why is Evelyn Matthei so popular nowadays? Wasn't she seen as radical just a few years ago?

[kaoras]

This referendum and Constitution seems to be following that famous motto: Everything changes, just for everything to stay the same.

Also, why is Evelyn Matthei so popular nowadays? Wasn't she seen as radical just a few years ago?

Matthei was never seen as radical. She is popular because she is one of the right most articulate speakers, capable of defending her ideas without saying extremely dumb or tone-deaf statements like Piñera and company (And last year was seen as a nice contrast of what could have been in comparison to the trainwreck of Sichel). But her 60% approval has more to do with the fact that she is mayor of Providencia, a rich comuna of Santiago which allows her to do many nice shiny things that gave her good press in the morning shows/matinales (similar to Lavín in Las Condes in the 90's, though Lavin posterior experience in Santiago Centro also showed that that style doesn't really work without the huge budgets of the Barrio Alto)