Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

The new big issue coming up in the convention is the debate over the composition of Congress, between supporters of a unicameral system on the left/far-left and bicameralism on the center/center-left. The current compromise, which appears to have the support of 2/3 of the convention, is a “Plurinational Congress” for the lower house and a “Territorial Council” with equal representation from each region and limited legislative powers over certain issues (mainly those affecting the regions themselves).

The political system commission’s proposal also includes consecutive reelection and term limits for the president (as in the US), a Vice President (and mandated gender parity for presidential tickets), and a cabinet chief minister similar to the prime minister in Peru or the jefe de gabinete in Argentina (seems tailor-made for Izkia Siches to be VP and Giorgio Jackson to be chief minister).

PS senators are furious with the PS in the convention, one of the newly elected senators even said that people in the poblaciones were goin to vote Rechazo because of the elimination of the senate (lmao, as someone that actually lives in a población eliminating the senate is uber popular among low income voters). I find funny how the punditariat and the elite in general seem so obsessed with keeping the Senate as it is. The reaction is almost as virulent as with the regional goverments. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The new big issue coming up in the convention is the debate over the composition of Congress, between supporters of a unicameral system on the left/far-left and bicameralism on the center/center-left. The current compromise, which appears to have the support of 2/3 of the convention, is a “Plurinational Congress” for the lower house and a “Territorial Council” with equal representation from each region and limited legislative powers over certain issues (mainly those affecting the regions themselves).

The political system commission’s proposal also includes consecutive reelection and term limits for the president (as in the US), a Vice President (and mandated gender parity for presidential tickets), and a cabinet chief minister similar to the prime minister in Peru or the jefe de gabinete in Argentina (seems tailor-made for Izkia Siches to be VP and Giorgio Jackson to be chief minister).

PS senators are furious with the PS in the convention, one of the newly elected senators even said that people in the poblaciones were goin to vote Rechazo because of the elimination of the senate (lmao, as someone that actually lives in a población eliminating the senate is uber popular among low income voters). I find funny how the punditariat and the elite in general seem so obsessed with keeping the Senate as it is. The reaction is almost as virulent as with the regional goverments. 

Yeah, I get some of the arguments for it in general but acting like unicameralism (or light bicameralism) will turn the country into Peru (as if Chile had either the political culture or any of the specific constitutional rules that have made Peru so unstable) is just silly.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The art/science/culture/“systems of knowledge” committee had a bit of a rough day yesterday, in the second round of voting in the full convention. Many of their proposals failed outright with others barely obtaining a simple majority, and the only ones that passed that weren’t obvious consensus articles (140+ votes in favor) were protecting net neutrality, establishing the right to digital access/access to technology, and establishing the right of indigenous peoples to seek repatriation of cultural objects.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Perhaps the worst possible news for the Convention, at perhaps its most critical moment: Pelao Vade has announced his intent to return to his position (which he never technically left as there’s no mechanism for members to resign).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

By the way, the commission on the judiciary has amended the proposed article on indigenous justice systems in order to gain the votes of the Colectivo Socialista (it passed yesterday with the votes of the PS members in the commission and was co-written by one of them) and reach the 2/3 majority. It did this by largely leaving the controversial questions of what jurisdiction they’ll have (over people and issues) to the legislature, so that’ll be fun to see when it does happen.

[kaoras]

The State Committee in the convention approved adding two regions to the country: Aconcagua (split from Valparaíso) and Chiloé (split from los Lagos, which would now have a very weird shape), with 20 votes in favour, 2 against and 3 abstentions.

Those had been "Popular initiatives" (which had to gather 15k signatures) and have been long time revindications. I'm kinda conflicted on this (especially on Chiloé, the island is way too linked to the rest of Los Lagos) Honestly those regionalization issues have more to do with the fact that Chile current system is so extreme on its centralism that every place wants the crumbs of autonomy given to the first level administrative divisions, something that should change with the new "estado regional". They are fighting the last war.

Also, while electoral calculations didn't play any part on this, both Aconcagua and Chiloé would be left wing regions, something that could have a significant effect on the new Territorial Chamber if every region is given equal representation.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Perhaps the worst possible news for the Convention, at perhaps its most critical moment: Pelao Vade has announced his intent to return to his position (which he never technically left as there’s no mechanism for members to resign).

Update: he is suspending his planned return because everyone hated it.

Meanwhile, the PS and INN have joined with the right to strengthen powers of the Territorial Council (now Chamber), albeit lightly, causing problems with the communists.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1496859179033706501?s=21

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1496877105484808202?s=21

Funny how this hadn’t been mentioned in this particular thread…

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1496859179033706501?s=21

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1496877105484808202?s=21

Funny how this hadn’t been mentioned in this particular thread…

I’ve been using this thread largely for domestic politics. Anyway, the convention is voting on the revised proposals from the commission on the judiciary and just approved the modified proposal for indigenous justice systems. Meanwhile, just over a week before Boric takes office, the commander in chief of the Army, Ricardo Martínez, resigned after being indicted in a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent purchase of airline tickets?

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1496859179033706501?s=21

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1496877105484808202?s=21

Funny how this hadn’t been mentioned in this particular thread…

I’ve been using this thread largely for domestic politics. Anyway, the convention is voting on the revised proposals from the commission on the judiciary and just approved the modified proposal for indigenous justice systems. Meanwhile, just over a week before Boric takes office, the commander in chief of the Army, Ricardo Martínez, resigned after being indicted in a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent purchase of airline tickets?

Not blaming you. Am curious what the domestic policies are in regard to Russia; the only two politicians’ positions I know I posted about. Kast? Any of the rest of them?

But please continue; I do check in on this thread from time to time to see how things are going in Chile.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1496859179033706501?s=21

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1496877105484808202?s=21

Funny how this hadn’t been mentioned in this particular thread…

I’ve been using this thread largely for domestic politics. Anyway, the convention is voting on the revised proposals from the commission on the judiciary and just approved the modified proposal for indigenous justice systems. Meanwhile, just over a week before Boric takes office, the commander in chief of the Army, Ricardo Martínez, resigned after being indicted in a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent purchase of airline tickets?

Not blaming you. Am curious what the domestic policies are in regard to Russia; the only two politicians’ positions I know I posted about. Kast? Any of the rest of them?

But please continue; I do check in on this thread from time to time to see how things are going in Chile.

I haven’t seen anyone support Putin besides maybe big daddy Artés, but Kast and Jadue have both condemned the invasion while still making time for swipes at their favorite boogeymen (the US/NATO for Jadue, who hates sanctions, and the UN for Kast, who hates everything).

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1496859179033706501?s=21

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1496877105484808202?s=21

Funny how this hadn’t been mentioned in this particular thread…

I’ve been using this thread largely for domestic politics. Anyway, the convention is voting on the revised proposals from the commission on the judiciary and just approved the modified proposal for indigenous justice systems. Meanwhile, just over a week before Boric takes office, the commander in chief of the Army, Ricardo Martínez, resigned after being indicted in a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent purchase of airline tickets?

Not blaming you. Am curious what the domestic policies are in regard to Russia; the only two politicians’ positions I know I posted about. Kast? Any of the rest of them?

But please continue; I do check in on this thread from time to time to see how things are going in Chile.

I haven’t seen anyone support Putin besides maybe big daddy Artés, but Kast and Jadue have both condemned the invasion while still making time for swipes at their favorite boogeymen (the US/NATO for Jadue, who hates sanctions, and the UN for Kast, who hates everything).

Thank God for Gabriel Boric, then.

[kaoras]

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1496859179033706501?s=21

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1496877105484808202?s=21

Funny how this hadn’t been mentioned in this particular thread…

I’ve been using this thread largely for domestic politics. Anyway, the convention is voting on the revised proposals from the commission on the judiciary and just approved the modified proposal for indigenous justice systems. Meanwhile, just over a week before Boric takes office, the commander in chief of the Army, Ricardo Martínez, resigned after being indicted in a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent purchase of airline tickets?

Not blaming you. Am curious what the domestic policies are in regard to Russia; the only two politicians’ positions I know I posted about. Kast? Any of the rest of them?

But please continue; I do check in on this thread from time to time to see how things are going in Chile.

Yeah, while Ukraine is all over the news, as a political issue it is almost non-existent since everybody with an ounce of relevance agrees at condemning the Russian invasion. There's really nothing interesting or new to talk about that topic

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1496859179033706501?s=21

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1496877105484808202?s=21

Funny how this hadn’t been mentioned in this particular thread…

I’ve been using this thread largely for domestic politics. Anyway, the convention is voting on the revised proposals from the commission on the judiciary and just approved the modified proposal for indigenous justice systems. Meanwhile, just over a week before Boric takes office, the commander in chief of the Army, Ricardo Martínez, resigned after being indicted in a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent purchase of airline tickets?

Not blaming you. Am curious what the domestic policies are in regard to Russia; the only two politicians’ positions I know I posted about. Kast? Any of the rest of them?

But please continue; I do check in on this thread from time to time to see how things are going in Chile.

Yeah, while Ukraine is all over the news, as a political issue it is almost non-existent since everybody with an ounce of relevance agrees at condemning the Russian invasion. There's really nothing interesting or new to talk about that topic

And now that I know that, my curiosity is assuaged, because now the country experts have weighed in (like Hash on Colombia). Carry on; I wish Gabriel Boric well.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/sebastianpinera/status/1496859179033706501?s=21

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1496877105484808202?s=21

Funny how this hadn’t been mentioned in this particular thread…

I’ve been using this thread largely for domestic politics. Anyway, the convention is voting on the revised proposals from the commission on the judiciary and just approved the modified proposal for indigenous justice systems. Meanwhile, just over a week before Boric takes office, the commander in chief of the Army, Ricardo Martínez, resigned after being indicted in a corruption scandal involving the fraudulent purchase of airline tickets?

Not blaming you. Am curious what the domestic policies are in regard to Russia; the only two politicians’ positions I know I posted about. Kast? Any of the rest of them?

But please continue; I do check in on this thread from time to time to see how things are going in Chile.

Yeah, while Ukraine is all over the news, as a political issue it is almost non-existent since everybody with an ounce of relevance agrees at condemning the Russian invasion. There's really nothing interesting or new to talk about that topic

That plus there’s nothing Chile can really do that the rest of the world isn’t doing already.

And I’m far from an expert; I just read the news.

[buritobr]

The runoff looks like to have happened a long time ago. And there is one more week of Piñera government.

[kaoras]

Los Lagos

Los Lagos, usually among the most rightist regions, had voted to the left of the country in 2013 and 2017. That anomality ended on this election, although Boric carried it by the skin of his teeth with a margin of 371 votes among 387.776 total ballots! This return to normal has a lot to do with the forestry shift to the right but also hides interesting regional patterns.



If you believe the crosstabs, the only group that Boric won were women under 30 by 22 points In fact, the under 30 demographics had an astounding gender gap of 34 points (Kast carried young men by 12). Kast also supposedly obliterated Boric among those over 70 while it was a tied among the middle aged. No matter how much fun it would be to speculate about these crazy results, is most likely just very noisy precinct data.



Geographically, Boric had two areas of strength. The Osorno province in the north of the region (he carried it by 1%) and Chiloé island, which gave him a 12k vote margin, key for his victory. Kast won both Llanquihue and Palena by similar margins (53-46%)

In Osorno province, Boric won San Juan de la Costa with 56% which is 78% Mapuche, second highest proportion nationwide. He also won the city of Osorno (51,6%) and ancestrally left-wing Puerto Octay (55,5%). His performance here was pretty poor compared to 2017, going backwards in all the rural comunas. There were 2 Guillier-Kast comunas here: San Pablo and Puyehue, along the northern border with Los Ríos. Both comunas are very rural with cattle raising being especially important. Provincial capital Osorno swung 4% to Boric which was enough to offset the rural loses and carry the province.


_{2021-2017 swing map. Red: swing to the left | Blue: swing to the right}

Boric rural woes extended to the traditionally left-wing towns on the Llanquihue lake shore. Kast won handily Frutillar with 55% while Boric carried Llanquihue by a very underwhelming 3% margin. By contrast, the left managed to cut down the margins in the rightist urban areas of Llanquihue province with a 5% swing in the very fancy, touristy and high-income town of Puerto Varas (Kast 56%) and in the regional capital Puerto Montt (Kast 50,5%). In Puerto Montt, Boric narrowly carried the poorest zones and suburbs like Alerce. Kast swept the rest of the province, mostly rural areas.

The epicenter of Boric victory was the island of Chiloé, where he reached 58%, winning every single comuna, a feat only managed by Bachelet in 2013. Chiloé swing to the left in the last decade has been absolutely staggering. Of the ten comunas of the island, nine have swung 10% to the left since 2009 and six by more than 15%. Traditionally, the left strength was concentrated in the city of Castro and the extremely isolated islands in the interior sea. These areas have become even more leftist: Boric best result in the region (and in ALL of southern Chile) was in Quinchao, a very isolated archipelago dedicated to subsistence farming and cattle raising along with fishing. He got 68% there and reached 81% in the island of Quenac, from where part of my family comes from. Boric also won almost 60% in Castro, the biggest city of the island and broke 60% in several comunas. Kast best results were in Dalcahue and Quemchi, where he reached 46%, a far cry from the 60%+ that the right used to achieve there.


_{2021-2009 swing map. Red: swing to the left | Blue: swing to the right}

In the isolated Palena, the southern tip of the mainland, Kast won comfortably, though it suffered a huge swing against him in the small town of Hualaihue, the start of the touristy carretera Austral and a place where Parisi had been strong in the first round.

Turnout jumped 7% to 51%. Parisi voters split evenly between Boric and Kast.

[kaoras]

Not a single full article proposed by the environment committee was approved in the full convention vote. Only a section saying that the state should promote dialogue and cooperation to combat the climate crisis (though the right still voted against that because...? Though some of PS abstained)

Also, the president of the senate, DC Ximena Rincón, says that she will vote reject if the convention continues its path, further proof that every time someone on the left wing of the DC achieves a position on influence within the party, they start acting like conservatives.

[kaoras]

Aysén


Until 2009, Aysén leaned to the right, though not overwhelming so, voting for Lavín over Lagos in 2000. Forestry occupies over a fifth of the working population of this very scarcely populated region (less than 1 people per km2) but being far away from the Mapuche Conflict it hasn’t drifted right, on the contrary. After stunningly voting for Guillier in 2017 (along with only Magallanes) it voted to the left of the country again.




I think we should ignore the age breakdown data because... yeah, it doesn’t really make sense, lots of small and noisy precincts.



Geographically, Boric best result was in Tortel with 64,8%, a small town that has seen significant economic development and advances in connectivity since the 2000’s (though not a population boom). Nowhere in Aysén the leftward shift has been more drastic than in Tortel. In 2000 it gave the right 77% of the vote and even in 2013 Bachelet got only 53%. Boric second-best result was Puerto Aysén, which along with Chile Chico (Boric 63%) have been traditionally left wing.

Regional capital Coyhaique gave Boric 55% of the vote, while he also won Cochrane and the small Archipielago of the Guaitecas, both a first for the left (discounting Bachelet landslide). Kast was reduced to the tiny comunas with higher military presence winning Lago Verde, Cisnes, Río Ibañez and O’Higgins.

A curiosity: Aysén was colonized mainly with people coming from Chiloé, and the trajectory of both areas has been remarkedly similar.

Turnout was 46,7%, lowest turnout in all southern Chile, but still up from 41% in the first round.

[kaoras]

Magallanes

Ancestrally leftwing, Magallanes is the home region of Boric and the only one south of Santiago where he broke 60%. 82% of the votes are cast in the regional capital Punta Arenas. The region main industries are energy and manufacturing.



The age and gender breakdown are fairly standard, with Boric being strongest with young voters. His dips among men 30-50 and over 70 can be explained by the disproportionate number of military precincts that exists in the most sparsely populated comunas.



Boric carried Natales, the biggest comuna in Chile by land area with 63%. Within Natales, Kast won the Kaweskar settlement of Puerto Edén by a single vote (20-19), helped by the military stationed there. For only the second time ever, the left won the comuna of Torres del Paine with 56% (the people who live there are actually shepherds, there isn’t even a proper town). The shepherd vote was in the pampa magallanica was very split, with Kast taking Rio Verde and Laguna Blanca  (51% in both) and Boric winning San Gregorio (52%). Boric won Punta Arenas very comfortably by 61%.

Boric best results in the region were in the northern comunas of the island of Tierra del Fuego, winning 68% in Primavera and 66% in the provincial capital of Porvenir. Kast won sparsely populated Timaukel and Cabo de Hornos, which is mostly populated by the military and their families. Kast also won among the military stationed in the Antarctic base of Villa las Estrellas in King George Island with 79% (26-7 in raw votes).

Turnout was 49%, up from 44% in the first round. Almost all Parisi voters went to Boric.

And that's it for the regional breakdowns! it took way longer than I anticipated but was a lot of fun, nevertheless. To anyone reading, feel free to ask questions about any region or detail in particular.

[H. Ross Peron]

Is the Chilean military very right-wing still? I guess that's to be expected of the officer corps but wondered if the enlisted ranks might be more moderate.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Not a single full article proposed by the environment committee was approved in the full convention vote. Only a section saying that the state should promote dialogue and cooperation to combat the climate crisis (though the right still voted against that because...? Though some of PS abstained)

Also, the president of the senate, DC Ximena Rincón, says that she will vote reject if the convention continues its path, further proof that every time someone on the left wing of the DC achieves a position on influence within the party, they start acting like conservatives.

It should also be noted that the specific part of its path that she disagrees with is the abolition/reformation of the Senate.

[kaoras]

Is the Chilean military very right-wing still? I guess that's to be expected of the officer corps but wondered if the enlisted ranks might be more moderate.

Yes, historically it wasn't always that way, in 1932 some officers briefly installed a socialist republic! but the dictatorship killed most of the leftists officers and since then widespread perception is that joining the military is something that right wing people do.

Curiously, the Officer Corps of the distinct branches have enough prestige that a lot of people apply just for the benefits, is a very attractive career for young males, but in my experience if they don't get in, they don't try with the easier to join enlisted corps (you either apply to be an officer or an enlisted rank, you can't climb from enlisted rank to officer), those are for people who really are into military stuff and thus are even more stereotypically fachos. Source: I went to an all-male middle class high school and of my 30 classmates I think ~10 applied to the officer's corps, but no one was selected, and no one applied to the enlisted ranks.

But among leftists, joining the armed forces or the police (Carabineros) in general is something very frowned upon. My uncle was in the Navy, but he had to apply in secret because my grandparents wouldn't let him and basically ran away to do it. (to be fair, he did apply during the dictatorship). He was even assigned to live in Cabo de Hornos/Puerto Williams with his family! For the record he is lefty, but my grandmother always says that he must be secretly a facho. And for example, when I was a kid, my mum used to tell me that when I grew up, I could do whatever I wanted except joining the military.

Carabineros is similar with the difference it was seen as a good career choice for lower income people but his prestige among the youth in general was totally destroyed with the social uprising. Applicants are down 86% since the social uprising and the animosity towards them isn't restricted only to leftists.

[kaoras]

Deals were reached for the Chamber of deputies and the Senate presidencies.

In the Chamber the accord includes all the left AD+SD+DC+PEV+PH and PDG. The presidency will rotate six times, the first one will be PPD Leonardo Soto. PDG will have the presidency between March and October 2024 (if they still exist by then) . The deal also extends to all the committees.

In the tied Senate, PS president Alvaro Elizalde will be president the first year with a right vice-presidency, meaning he will inaugurate Boric today and pass him the banda presidencial. The right will have the presidency the second year and so on. Making Elizalde of all people go first is clearly a play to try to save the Senate in the Constitutional Convention.

Funny that after all the handwriting PDG ended up making deals with the left (even though the left didn't need them in the chamber).

[kaoras]

New title. If the convention solicites 3 extra months (almost a given), the "Plebiscito de Salida" should happen around September 2022.

Polls already started and show Approve with a narrow lead over reject, which is not surprising considering that the coverage of the convention these past few months has been very negative because of all the critics of the elites against its proposals, but also because of very stupid norms that get approved in committee and die in the pleno.

I think in the end this will be a polarized plebiscite with an anti-elite frame, kinda similar to Brexit in that very specific sense. That mood coupled with the institutional support of the left and the government could be enough to push Approve over the top but is not really a given.

I think is sad that the new constitution is also going to be polarized, but both the political right and the elites are very terrified of every change to the status quo. They just can't get over the fact that they don't have veto power to just make cosmetic changes. The maximalism of the left-independents and an overtly excessive attention to identity politics in the convention also doesn't help.