Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Lumine]

I have to admit Sichel suddenly appearing to be popular - although he did poll well as a minister - is unexpected, but if it helps (purely anecdotal evidence) when I brought up his name in a number of conversations I was surprised to hear a positive reaction. As to him polling well among right-wing voters, maybe it's an issue of pragmatism, in the sense that he (theoretically) seems like someone who would appeal to centrist voters and expand Chile Vamos whilst not being ideologically suspicious - unlike say, Desbordes and Lavin - by virtue of not having outlined a lot of specific stances.

Maybe he'll have actual appeal among independents and do surprisingly well on the primary, though precedents would indeed suggest he's more likely to crash and burn in spectacular fashion.

As to Narvaez, it will be fascinating to see how far a Bachelet endorsement can take her. I have no doubt she has the sufficient prestige to ensure Narvaez steamrolls Insulza and Elizalde, but it will be interesting to see how much of an impact this might cause on the polls and Unidad Constituyente itself.

[Lumine]

I have to admit Sichel suddenly appearing to be popular - although he did poll well as a minister - is unexpected, but if it helps (purely anecdotal evidence) when I brought up his name in a number of conversations I was surprised to hear a positive reaction. As to him polling well among right-wing voters, maybe it's an issue of pragmatism, in the sense that he (theoretically) seems like someone who would appeal to centrist voters and expand Chile Vamos whilst not being ideologically suspicious - unlike say, Desbordes and Lavin - by virtue of not having outlined a lot of specific stances.

Hmm, I read the theory on Twitter that Sichel is an Allamand-Larraín operation against Mario Desbordes. Some dirigents are also asking RN council to give freedom of action to support Sichel. What do you think of that?  

Well, I do remember Sichel was considered as a presidential candidate for Ciudadanos + Amplitud - when Velasco and Perez didn't want to do it - in 2017, so I'd take his ambition to be president and his actual campaign seriously. However, I do believe Allamand and company have settled on him as a clever way to neutralize and undermine Desbordes (I read a story today which reported Senator Chahuan as having been in "constructive" talks with Sichel for some time now), and will try to use that opportunity.

I'm not sure if RN will indeed declare freedom of action, if only because Desbordes is said to control roughly 40% of the council and it doesn't seem likely his critics will be able to form a majority for it. In any case, at the very least I would expect a number of the pro-Allamand deputies to declare for Sichel, and a far more interesting scenario if RN does declare freedom of action.

On the bright side for Desbordes, at least he's being nominated by the PRI this week...

[Lumine]

Five days to go until candidacies for April are formalized on January 11th, and things are moving really fast.

Among other developments:

• Joaquin Lavin is in for the Presidential race. While not a surprise, the announcement comes far earlier than anyone expected, and he will not run for reelection as mayor. The timing is fascinating, because it probably tries to undermine Jadue/Matthei due to both running for mayor and then - presumably - for president.

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• Beatriz Sanchez is out, though the fact that this was announced early by a Frente Amplio party chairman caused an internal scandal on by itself. It does seem that the Frente Amplio is starting to panic in finding a presidential nominee, as Fernando Atria (Plan B) turned them down as well. Both Atria and Sanchez should run for the constituent convention. Marcelo Diaz still in and pressuring for primaries.

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• We're getting a new cabinet reshuffle within the hour as Monckeberg (Presidency) and Walker (Agriculture) are allegedly going to run for the constituent elections.

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• It is all but confirmed there will not be a unity list for the left. We're likely headed for at least four (Unidad Constituyente, PC+Frente Amplio, the Humanists and the Ecologists), plus literally dozens of left wing - or left leaning - independents.

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• A unity list for the right may yet happen, as there's a lot of internal pressure to include about a dozen candidates from JAK's Partido Republicano in the Chile Vamos list. A mistake and a wrong approach in my opinion, but those of us against a constituent pact seem to be in the clear minority.

(Also Narvaez seems to be taking off indeed, though she's yet to be polled)

[Lumine]

BTW, Lumine, have you seen anecdotal evidence of rightist voters planning not to vote for Vamos por Chile list?. I would guess that the type of voters in your district would tend to be more loyal but I'm still curious if you see some defection.

Oddly enough, I have, but for the most part concentrated in the municipal elections (for example, a lot of people are deserting Andrea Molina in Viña del Mar to favor one of the right-wing independents, and this is likely to repeat itself in a number of places regardless of whether the Republicanos are competing or not). What I have sensed that might affect the constituent result is - in some people I know - a similar feeling than 2012-2013, when you could see a general sense of disappointment set in among right-wing voters due to Piñera's first government, with the subsequent turnout drop and consecutive defeat.

In this context - and since the October debacle - I'm certainly aware of people (including politically active ones) who've moved away from the coalition as a whole, some to favor Republicanos - though not as many as I expected -, but more to fuel the ranks of the so called "independents" the right always needs to break out of the supposed 1/3 safety net in the vote.

30% is not an unreasonable assumption, but I'd call it optimistic. Although it seems people are willing - up to a point - to differentiate between Piñera and the coalition (sort of the dark inversion of people overlooking Bachelet's popularity in 2008-2009 to punish her coalition), I think the sheer harm inflicted on the Chilean right by Piñera is being underestimated and is likely to be a long term issue. Personally, I'm betting we'll actually be getting 25-28% in the constituents - even if our mayors overperform -, the Lista del Apruebo will get first place (barely) and all the independents and small lists will get far more votes than people expect, only to be kept out of the Convention through the system and vote dispersion.

[Lumine]

The turnout drop, besides being a disappointment (participation for the pblescite was already too low), is going to create quite a few surprises tonight. I still think it's more likely that the right wing electorate is too demoralized to show up - with places like Vitacura being the exception, not the rule - and Chile Vamos will still get the predicted shellacking, but it's hard to tell just what the devil is going on.

[Lumine]

Fairly disastrous for CV - not surprising, the center-right electorate is, understandably, both demoralized and/or frustrated - but I'll take it, the UC triumph should slow Jadue a bit for some time.

Can't really comment on most of the candidates, but Orrego is also a relief as Oliva - ideological differences aside - made it fairly clear during the campaign she wasn't ready in the slightest to run the Metropolitan Region.

[Lumine]

Pretty much. In fact, it should worry UC that Orrego only won by 5 against a candidate of the quality of Oliva and with the ridiculous differential turnout on his favor (Oliva map SHOULD be a winning map), but its the ex-Concertación, the DC is clearly going to get drunk on their victory, just like after the gubernatorial primaries.

Carmen Frei is way ahead already. Should be fun to see if they overreach again, particularly as they now hold the realistic presidential card for the center-left (not offense to Narvaez, but it's just not going to happen).

The levels of participation are so low that it's difficult to analyze the results in a meaningful way, but that 60% margin in District 11 singlehandedly saving Orrego is quite hilarious.

[Lumine]

It would be beyond hilarious if Jadue and Lavín both are knocked out tonight after spending more than a year as frontrunners and inevitable nominees. Not certain yet, but it would quite something.

Boric would be harder to defeat in a second round, but since victory for the right is increasingly unlikely on the first place, I can't say I'm sad to see him ahead. I do wonder if he'll have trouble on the first round with the more hard-left candidates who show up.

[Lumine]

Pamela Jiles is finally out of the race (rejoice!), and Jorge Sharp is starting to make some noise.

Considering a Jiles or Jadue victory seemed quite possible until very recently, it will be a huge relief not to see either in the first round.

[Lumine]

Indeed, so that ends chances of a rematch for Ominami or Guillier.

Jorge Sharp promises an independent candidate will declare next week (purporting to represent left-wing independents and possibly the Lista del Pueblo). Absolutely no idea who it will be.

Also a bunch of independents are allegedly trying to get signatures (including a few nutcases), so it could be quite a larger field than expected.

Things more or less stand like this (?), from left to right:

Unión Patriotica:
Eduardo Artés (UPA) (not sure if he needs signatures)

Lista del Pueblo (?)+ Independents:
TBA

Apruebo Dignidad:
Gabriel Boric (CS)

Unidad Constituyente:
Paula Narváez (PS)
Carlos Maldonado (PRSD)
Yasna Provoste (DC)

Centro Unido:
Cristián Contreras (CU) (looking for signatures)

Partido de la Gente:
Franco Parisi (PDG) or Gino Lorenzini (PDG) (SERVEL still needs to validate the party signatures?)

Chile Vamos:
Sebastián Sichel (IND)

Partido Republicano:
José Antonio Kast (PR)

Various Independents:
Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (centrist, former candidate in 2013)
Marcela Aranda (right wing social conservative activist)
Diego Ancalao (left wing independent, used to run the Izquierda Ciudadana during Bachelet II)
Carola Canelo (left wing independent, tried to get signatures in 2017)
Hermógenez Pérez de Arce (former deputy in 73', pro-Pinochet hardliner)
Plus as many as 15 other unknowns

Not ruling out other small parties running someone (like the Humanists or Ecologists) as well. Last time it was nine candidates, we could hit that again depending on many independents get the signatures.

[Lumine]

I’ve seen Ancalao’s name bandied about as another potential non-Sharp candidate for the Lista del Pueblo (IIRC Sharp said it wouldn’t be him). Is there any truth to that or is it just internet rumors?

(I think the LdP running a candidate like this is somewhat debasing the ideals it professes to stand for, but what do I know.)

It has been tossed around without much substance. I really doubt they would choose him. I would bet on a nobody tbh.

It would be extremely odd, considering that Ancalao has run a political party before and LdP seems to be going through their "purist" phase regarding people with political experience (after all, they're still playing the game of trying to be a party without calling themselves such). If they said no to Sharp (who has actual visibility and popularity to sustain a moderately successful effort), I can't imagine why they'd say yes to Ancalao.

They do seem set on a candidate which covers some specific criteria (from the regions, female and so on) so I concur, probably someone completely unknown.

[Lumine]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

Tried, but it was supremely boring (the journalists taking so long to make the questions didn't help). Some are joking that Boric won, which, considering the apparently low viewership numbers, seems like a fair assessment of the situation.

[Lumine]

The Lista del Pueblo drama continues, as they now have both Diego Ancalao (previously cited as a possible candidates) and one Ingrid Conejeros gathering signatures as part of the "primary". This while Cuevas, despite announcing and confirming his candidacy as an independent, has not told the LdP whether he'll accept to compete against both of them, or, as Kaoras noted, what the devil happens if they don't reach the threshold in two weeks.

Even funnier, the newest Lorenzini-Parisi pyramid scheme known as "Partido de la Gente" (which having just delivered over 50,000 signatures is, potentially to be taken somewhat seriously as a splinter) faces an internal crisis as Parisi, who intends to be the party nominee, now sees his partner Lorenzini gathering signatures to run as an independent (which is legally dubious). Barring Lorenzini being disqualified again or some sort of internal primary - why on earth would they be doing this so late in the game? -, we could very well see both of them running at the same time.

[Lumine]

Now the Lista del Pueblo confirms the signatures primary will be between Ancalao, Conejeros and another activist, Maria Soledad Mella. Cuevas is left out, but he's still running as an independent. On the Partido de la Gente situation, Lorenzini now says he'd compete against Parisi in a primary (how? they only have 11 days left!).

Finally, Education Minister Raúl Figueroa survives impeachment in the Chamber of Deputies. There were a few defections from the opposition, but the deciding factor seems to have been a bunch of opposition congressmen being absent.

[Lumine]

On the Partido de la Gente situation, Lorenzini now says he'd compete against Parisi in a primary (how? they only have 11 days left!).

Small update, Lorenzini now backtracks, he's running as an independent period. We're headed for a clown car in the first round.

[Lumine]

On the Partido de la Gente situation, Lorenzini now says he'd compete against Parisi in a primary (how? they only have 11 days left!).

Small update, Lorenzini now backtracks, he's running as an independent period. We're headed for a clown car in the first round.

Lmao, how do they decide who makes it into the debates? Do the networks have their own rules like in the US or does Servel do it or what?

ANATEL (the association for tv channels) invited all presidential candidates in 2017, so we had an eight person debate that time. Not sure if they'll be able to repeat that if we get more than, say, 10 first round candidates, but we won't know the exact size of the field until the last moment.

[Lumine]

Cadem poll has Boric edging ahead of Sichel, Pulso Ciudadano has a massive Boric drop/Sichel surge and Kast around 10%. Pulso also has confidence in the constitutional convention at 30-46, so that seems…off the top of my head like a wild shift even considering the right wing campaign against the convention.

Oddly enough, it's the Cadem result that feels more "accurate" this time. I don't quite get how Pulso Ciudadano, while still showing lower government approvals than Cadem, nonetheless produces both a very optimistic scenario for the right wing in the first round, plus such a significant support gap for the convention.

There are a number of factors that could explain why the Convention might be dropping slightly in approvals (delays, voting to increase appropriations, a few PR missteps), but that particular result just seems difficult to believe.

Likewise, there are reasons to argue the right is in a far better position than a month ago (pandemic numbers improving and the resulting limited rise in government approvals, the decision to maintain current subsidies, the uncertainty surrounding Unidad Constituyente and so on), but not to that degree.

But even if one believes Pulso Ciudadano shows some plausible trends (lower convention approvals, improved presidential odds for the right), I have to admit the presented numbers feel implausible right now.

Narvaez is crushing it in the second debate of UC. Absolutely based answer about forest companies in conflict with mapuche communities: EXPROPIESE _{if necessary after a dialogue}

The debate had a rating of 18,2, lower than Chile Vamos (29) and Apruebo Dignidad (25), though those had one more channel and were on weekdays.

While I wouldn't say that this was a game-changer, the good performance of Narvaez should give a significant morale boost to the PS machine.

Better late than never for Narvaez, I suppose, she does seem to have finally found a tone in which to gain visibility. Personally, I would contend the collective rhetorical turn towards the left in UC may not be as useful as they think it will be when they get to the first round - seeing as they seem determined to compete with Boric -, but it could work.

Would certainly be fun to watch if Provoste actually loses the primary and we get a repeat of a coalition falling for the "this candidate polls better" trap. The reaction from the DC alone would be hilarious to witness.

[Lumine]

Debate tonight! Pretty much do or die for Sichel, whereas Boric and JAK just need to successfully play defence. Ominami is showing up this time, so it will be interesting to see who he decides to go against.

I don’t recall Sichel ever receiving any sort of major scrutiny during the primaries, am I wrong?

Not really. The press mostly focussed on his life story and Lavín was too busy attacking Jadue (lmao). Only Desbordes attacked him, but nobody was paying much attention to Desbordes. This could also be a problem for JAK going forwards, his platform has many insane bits, including a literal Operación Condor 2.0 agains "leftist extremists". Considering that the standard format of the debates in Chile is the journalists grilling the candidates, is very likely that his more extremist views come to the spotlight again.

So Kast's actually running on the "helicopter" meme that far-right individuals in the US and elsewhere constantly fantasize about. JFC.

As a matter of fact, one of his platform's proposals would even strenghten the "state of emergency" (which the President can declare without congressional appoval, needing it only to extend it beyond a few days) to turn into a "state of siege" de facto, thus by-passing Congress to take some really harsh measures for a few days. Obviously nothing he can get through any concievable Congress, but it's stuff like that that has me resigned to voting null if it indeed becomes Kast vs. Boric.

OR, if these far-right voters aren’t actually voting for Boric in the Boric vs Sichel scenario, it still means they aren’t voting for any of the options. Meaning that the far-right doesn’t see the “moderate right” as better than the left.

Left-Right spectrum is becoming outdated in some ways. Divide appears to become more about people who want strong meaningful change (regardless of what it is lol) and people who doesn’t.

This seems like a reasonable interpretation of the current scenario. A lot of right-wing or even center-right voters are just about done and fed up with Piñera, and Sichel being so determined to play to the center without trying to hold the base has allowed many to see him as an unappealing choice. I've certainly heard of a few Kast voters not planning to vote Sichel in a runoff because of them percieving him as "more of the same".

Ever since 2009, there's been a not insignificant part of the electorate that has voted for the "change" option even if that means switching between candidates one believes should be incompatible. There was a Ominami (left) to Piñera (center-right) crossover vote in 2009, and to this day I believe a few of Beatriz Sanchez (FA, left) voters went for Piñera in 2017 because their vote was a non-ideological one for some sort of "change" in the first place. If anything, Boric should benefit from that in a second round against Sichel, but with polls suggesting Kast is managing to somewhat soften his image and broaden his appeal, it's not impossible he rallies a few voters as a "change" candidate.

[Lumine]

Sichel is the Chilean Armin Laschet.

Pretty apt comparison, including the fact that almost all of the collapse is self-inflicted.

Gaffes, an inability to plan ahead of possible controversies, a campaign team devoid of talent and/or experience in spite of having massive resources, a never ending display of arrogance in public and in private (to the point of alienating the coalition parties), and so on. As a matter of fact, the campaign has been so incompetent that the parties and/or key spokespersons have learned about stuff from the TV first and not from the candidate/campaign leadership.

Whether he salvages something or not (pretty unlikely given the track record and the sad state of the campaign team), Sichel is going to become the Chilean textbook case of screwing up your own campaign.

All that really remains to be seen - barring the sort of miracle I can't see Sichel pulling off - is whether the parliamentary campaign can be salvaged, or whether JAK is going to be able to push his party candidates ahead like Beatriz Sanchez did for the FA in 2017. If we get the latter, it's going to be a massacre.

[Lumine]

Is there parliamentary polling?

There was a single poll months ago, but it was meaningless then and even more so now. Cadem (I know, not reliable) delivered a detailed study on the highly competitive Senatorial race for Santiago a month ago, and that was a lifetime ago. Still:

Chile Podemos +: 30,3%
Apruebo Dignidad: 25,6%
Frente Social Cristiano: 13,1%
Nuevo Pacto Social: 6,9%
Partido de la Gente: 3,4%
Partido Ecologista Verde: 3,0%
Centro Unido: 2,6%
Dignidad Ahora: 1,1%
Unión Patriótica: 0,4%

The right + center right is getting more than 45% in that poll, which isn't happening even on our wildest dreams, but there is a chance we do overperform a bit in the Senate because the lists are relatively strong. Apruebo Dignidad should also expect excellent results all around, because they have momentum and strong candidates, and because Nuevo Pacto Social (or "I can't believe it's not the Concertación MK3") has some really weak candidates.

It's becoming increasingly hard to venture any predictions because we have no idea what kind of turnout we'll see and what kind of voters will show up, and we'll be going blind with no polls released after November 6th. But if I had to venture a guess, the combined right recedes back to less than a third of Congress (but not quite as dismal as the Constituent Assembly), Apruebo Dignidad gains the congressional plurality (but not nearly close to a majority), Nuevo Pacto Social loses a ton of seats, and a handful of minor party/independent candidates will get through (like ex-LDP supporter Fabiola Campillai as a Senator for Santiago).

[Lumine]

I'm starting to get kinda worried. I don't think Kast can actually win but the right as a whole is not polling bad and they might not get obliterated downballot. On the other hand, for some reason the right has always polled "well" in the presidential numbers, it could be that polling just sucks, plus many left-minded people I know are undecided because they don't want to vote for Boric but in the end might have to. So who knows.

It does seem the case that a substantial amount of left-wing voters are just not comfortable with him, but I wouldn't worry about them not falling in line by the time we get into the second round (they may not vote on the first though, which will hurt the left downballot). If anything, I'd be more worried about Boric losing the less ideological voters via self-inflicted wounds, like his sudden lack of message discipline after managing to stay above the fray for quite a while.

All he needs to do is be quiet, try to look presidential and not do something stupid, and he should sail into an easy victory. It would be quite something if he botched it up with this political climate.

Having said all that, I do think Kast has successfully increased his ceiling, even if he's still far ahead from where he would need to be in order to have a chance. At least anecdotally, I have heard of non-ideological people finding him more appealing this time (more "presidential" by comparison to some of the other candidates, if that makes sense) or being willing to settle for him in light of the options.

[Lumine]

Parisi tested positive for COVID so he will not be in the last debate and will not arrive to Chile before the first round.

Who exactly votes for Parisi? Like what kind of voter does he appeal to?

Lower middle class, apolitical, disaffected or disechanted with politics - thus vulnerable to Parisi's textbook populist and "anti-elite" message -, believed by experts to focus around the 30-40 age group with an apparent stronger base in the North that dates back to 2013.

Back in 2013 his base of independent voters leaned more to the center-right (hence why most, but not all, went for Matthei against Bachelet), but polling suggests he's picking up voters from across the political spectrum. Although, initially, most people believe he was pulling votes from Sichel and/or Kast, apparently Boric (!) ranked first in terms of the second preference of those Parisi voters, which sort of makes sense given the anti-establishment political climate.

That seems to be the objective answer, since, in strictly personal terms, I have a very low opinion of anyone who buys into his nonsense. Just as his campaign resembles a pyramid scheme, his online supporters behave very much like a cult.

[Lumine]

I don’t get why not even one person on the right is willing to cut off a highly unpopular president who’s at the very end of what’s most likely his last term in office. I don’t see the political benefit to sticking with Piñera of all people.

A combination of factors, really.

For some its the belief that he should be allowed to finish his term, for others not wanting to give the opposition a win. Had they voted yes on either impeachment vote, they would have conceded the argument to the left (either on violence or corruption) and would have been hurt anyway by association. When you add to that the fact that Congress picks the new President and that the opposition majority can't really be relied upon not to choose one of their own, and that this comes just before the election, you have a set of reasons that make ditching Piñera seem like the larger and not the lesser evil for center-right or right congressmen.

When this first came up a few weeks ago there were several government congressmen giving serious thought to supporting the impeachment, but the context, timing and the whole filibuster shenanigans eventually made it politically undesirable for them to do so. Maybe, if this had come up in a different moment and not coincide with as many unexpected events as it did, one might (might) have seen a larger, more public internal revolt.

Still, in the hypothetical scenario this whole situation took place under a parliamentary system, and it was more like a purely political VONC, I have very little doubt they would have thrown him to the wolves. I have serious doubts about whether parliamentarism would ever work in Chile given our extremely fractured party system, but one disadvantage of our version of presidentialism is indeed how much it struggles to cope with political crises (with the end result of impeachments that are supposed to have a judicial basis becoming a political process).

[Lumine]

Lower middle class, apolitical, disaffected or disechanted with politics - thus vulnerable to Parisi's textbook populist and "anti-elite" message -, believed by experts to focus around the 30-40 age group with an apparent stronger base in the North that dates back to 2013.

Back in 2013 his base of independent voters leaned more to the center-right (hence why most, but not all, went for Matthei against Bachelet), but polling suggests he's picking up voters from across the political spectrum. Although, initially, most people believe he was pulling votes from Sichel and/or Kast, apparently Boric (!) ranked first in terms of the second preference of those Parisi voters, which sort of makes sense given the anti-establishment political climate.

That seems to be the objective answer, since, in strictly personal terms, I have a very low opinion of anyone who buys into his nonsense. Just as his campaign resembles a pyramid scheme, his online supporters behave very much like a cult.

Yeah pretty much. If anything the whole virtual campaign thing is holding him back, populism is a very fertile ground right now.

I read Parisi platform with a friend who is voting from him (he was previously going to vote for Kast so I didn't bother hin, tbh I was just grateful) and is full of inoffensive vaguely populist stuff, it doesn't look right-wing at all. I would say that most Parisi voters are not going to vote for anyone but him and the rest is going to split evenly between left and right.

Seems accurate, he doesn't seem to be hurting anyone in particular. Still, and even though I don't think it will happen, I can only wonder what might happen if, somehow (Boric collapse or Kast being overrated by polls) he got into the second round.

[Lumine]

Could have been worse for him, but Kast clearly lost his cool at least twice (including the gratuitous question to one of the moderators).

Not that he'll gain anything from the debate, but I'm pleased enough - or feel mostly represented by - with Sichel's performance and tone. I'll probably just vote for him and then go null in the Kast-Boric runoff.

Can't see Provoste getting the surge she's aiming for in spite of hard she tries. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if Ominami gained a couple of points in spite of some arrogant answers.