Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Bilardista]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

Portugal:

Approve 212 (76,2%)
Reject 66 (23,8%)

In 2021 it was Boric 182 (85,4%) and Kast 31 (14,6%)

Why is the expat vote so left wing? Seems uncommon for latin America

Combination of factors but the main one is that many of them are either Pinochet's exiles or their descendants. In European countries this is turbocharged by the impression left on them by the Welfare States (especially noticeable in the Stalinist margins in the Nordics, Sweden for example came out with 88% for Approve, actually down from 94% Boric). By contrast, countries with more "Business-types" kind of immigration are way more right wing, which you can see in the Asian results. In Latin American countries Chileans behave more like the rest of the continent but countries that also received large numbers of exiles like México or Argentina also are heavily left wing

Ah, so chilean emigrants mostly left for political rather than economical reasons as its elsewhere in the region? That makes sense, thanks.

[jaichind]

One pro-Approve way to read the foreign results so far is that non-voters in 2021 are breaking around 50/50 Approve/Disapprove which would be good news for the Approve camp.

[Lumine]

Just voted (Reject), it was pretty swift, though most people at my polling place had seemingly already voted.

Not going to lie, signs are good for us right now what with the international vote and the apparently monumental turnout, provided the polling assumption that said turnout surge is indeed favorable to Reject. I don't see reports of incidents or significant trouble, which is also welcome news.

Two hours left to vote, and then we should know within two hours at most (if its narrow), probably much earlier if the margin is decent enough. I'm optimistic, but not confident.

[Ichabod]

With a heavy heart, I just voted for rejecting the constitutional text.

Out of curiosity, why did you vote to reject?

The constitutional text is not the right answer to problems that Chilean people stood up on October, 18th and beyond. And actually, it would generate a lot of new problems related to plurinationalism and political system

[skbl17]

Honestly, with the talk about a new convention (under different rules and a different electoral system), I am curious about what changes would be most likely to appear in a "cleaned up" draft compared to the one up for a vote (and likely to be rejected) today.

[kaoras]

First results from Magallanes show Reject ahead so yeah, is basically over

[Oryxslayer]

First results from Magallanes show Reject ahead so yeah, is basically over

Sure those arn't the military bases?

[Mike88]

I love this part of elections in Chile: The live counting

[kaoras]

First results from Magallanes show Reject ahead so yeah, is basically over

Sure those arn't the military bases?

No, they are from Punta Arenas downtown, though the most lopsided result appears to be from a high income area.

[Mike88]

T13 is tracking two counts in Punta Arenas. So far:

84 Reject
71 Approve

127 Reject
111 Approve

[Mike88]

T13 is tracking two counts in Punta Arenas. So far:

84 Reject
71 Approve

127 Reject
111 Approve

These two counts have finished:

55.2% Reject (329)
44.8% Approve (267)

[jaichind]

T13 is tracking two counts in Punta Arenas. So far:

84 Reject
71 Approve

127 Reject
111 Approve

These two counts have finished:

55.2% Reject (329)
44.8% Approve (267)

If that is representative of Punta Arenas then it seems Reject has outperformed.

Did T13 pick 2 random precincts or 2 representative precincts?

[Oryxslayer]

First results from Magallanes show Reject ahead so yeah, is basically over

Sure those arn't the military bases?

No, they are from Punta Arenas downtown, though the most lopsided result appears to be from a high income area.

Well if they end up rejecting it overall then yeah its probably over, though I wonder if geography of Approve will be more "Santiago + Valparaiso vs the rest" when compared to previous presidential vote distributions. 2021 was already a divergence in favor of greater reform-oriented energy in the urban core.

[Mike88]

T13 is tracking two counts in Punta Arenas. So far:

84 Reject
71 Approve

127 Reject
111 Approve

These two counts have finished:

55.2% Reject (329)
44.8% Approve (267)

If that is representative of Punta Arenas then it seems Reject have outperformed.

Other channels are also showing countings and the results aren't different from these. Also, turnout in the live countings shown on TV is between 70-80%.

[Mike88]

Did T13 pick 2 random precincts or 2 representative precincts?

Random I believe. 5 minutes until poll closings across Chile.

[kaoras]

Did T13 pick 2 random precincts or 2 representative precincts?

Random I believe.

Close to the city centre though approve should also be winning there if they wanted a chance

[Mike88]

Did T13 pick 2 random precincts or 2 representative precincts?

Random I believe.

Close to the city centre though approve should also be winning there if they wanted a chance

Yes, just noticed that the polling stations are in Magallanes University and in High Schools across the city.

[Mike88]

Polls are now closed. Counting is starting across the country. Live countings from Estádio Nacional and Puente Alto.

[jaichind]

This T13 live count would be more fun if they were from bellwether precincts.

[kaoras]

This T13 live count would be more fun if they were from bellwether precincts.

Due to geolocalization law every single voter changed their mesa and 62% changed polling place. They have no way of knowing which precint would be bellwether.

[Mike88]

This T13 live count would be more fun if they were from bellwether precincts.

Due to geolocalization law every single voter changed their mesa and 62% changed polling place. They have no way of knowing which precint would be bellwether.

Yeah, was going to point that out. That law makes no sense at all.

[Mike88]

Reject won in Boric's precinct:

168 Reject
117 Approve

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Prediction: Reject in high single digits

[Mike88]

T13 live counting so far:

12,724 Reject (55.9%)
10,043 Approve (44.1%)

[jaichind]

T13 live counting so far:

12,724 Reject (55.9%)
10,043 Approve (44.1%)

But this is just the sum of the precinct results that T13 chooses to have reporters present to film the count right?