Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Mike88]

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

What's the current Social Security tax, on wages of course, without those proposed extra 6%?

[kaoras]

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

What's the current Social Security tax, on wages of course, without those proposed extra 6%?

10% exclusively for the individual pension accounts  (that part would not be touched) plus 7% for health insurance.

[Mike88]

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

What's the current Social Security tax, on wages of course, without those proposed extra 6%?

10% exclusively for the individual pension accounts  (that part would not be touched) plus 7% for health insurance.

That would create a 23% SS tax, with health insurance. Adding IRS rates, it's a pretty big tax hike for Chileans. Do businesses also pay SS taxes?

[kaoras]

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

What's the current Social Security tax, on wages of course, without those proposed extra 6%?

10% exclusively for the individual pension accounts  (that part would not be touched) plus 7% for health insurance.

That would create a 23% SS tax, with health insurance. Adding IRS rates, it's a pretty big tax hike for Chileans. Do businesses also pay SS taxes?

The extra 6% would be paid by the employers. There is widespread consensus on doing that hike, the squabble is about if is used only for the individual accounts or introducing a solidarity mechanism.

Also, just around 20% pay income taxes because it only applies to salaries above ~680 USD and 80% of salaries are below that (median salary is around 430 USD IRRC) And for most people is a laughable amount.

[Mike88]

But not all is rosy for Approve. Since many centre left figures have said that they are for "Approve to reform", there is pressure to say exactly what they want to reform. This is very likely to lead to internal divisions and polemics. Also, the government has started talking about their pension reform which is bound to be very unpopular because it has and extra 6% payroll tax that is going to a solidarity fund (because in this country everyone wants better pensions but no one wants to pay for it )  

What's the current Social Security tax, on wages of course, without those proposed extra 6%?

10% exclusively for the individual pension accounts  (that part would not be touched) plus 7% for health insurance.

That would create a 23% SS tax, with health insurance. Adding IRS rates, it's a pretty big tax hike for Chileans. Do businesses also pay SS taxes?

The extra 6% would be paid by the employers. There is widespread consensus on doing that hike, the squabble is about if is used only for the individual accounts or introducing a solidarity mechanism.

Also, just around 20% pay income taxes because it only applies to salaries above ~680 USD and 80% of salaries are below that (median salary is around 430 USD IRRC) And for most people is a laughable amount.

Oh right. Well, that increase could be to both individual accounts and a solidarity mechanism, like 30-70 in favour of the solidarity mechanism, plus if taxpayers surpass the 7% they pay on health insurance on a yearly basis, they could receive a refund. (Maybe this is already the case, but anyway )

I knew that wages were low in Chile, but didn't know they were this low.

[kaoras]

New Criteria:

Approve 36 (+5), Reject 44 (-4)

You can also check a poll of poll graphic here: https://www.decidechile.cl/

Currently says Approve 34,8 and Reject 48,9

[kaoras]

Until new polling or something interesting happens (and because I'm bored in Winter's Holiday, thus the thread is updated more often), let's compare the maps of Plebiscite of 1988 and last year presidential election. Both had almost the exact same margin (56-44 for No and Boric respectively)

Plebiscite of 1988:



Presidential election 2021, Second Round




The geographic trends are very contraintuitive and go against of the global #trends. There are several major (for Chilean standards) cities that voted No in 1988 but Kast in 2021, like Iquique, Temuco, Chillán and Puerto Montt. The left in 2021 swept the rural areas of the North between Antofagasta and Santiago, while en 1988 Pinochet won Antofagasta interior and the upper Elqui and Limarí valleys in Coquimbo region. Other rural advances are the central valley in the Metropolitan and O'Higgins regions, the Island of Chiloé in the South and the isolated comunas of Aysén and Magallanes.

The exception is Biobío, (northernmost area of the second "column") where leftwing support has collapsed both in rural areas and urban zones, though Boric still was able to carry the Gran Concepción Metro area. The decline is particularly striking in coal mining Arauco Province. The right has also consolidated their stranglehold over the Barrio Alto in Santiago, where No got 40% of the vote but Boric only ~20%.

One caveat is that 1988 results were very strange even for the time, because the urban rural divide of that election has never been replicated. Left strenght in rural areas has declined in the last elections, as I mentioned in my region-by-region breakdown, but overall, the Left is still stronger in rural areas than, for example, in the 2000 election.

[kaoras]

Ex Convention member Constanza Hube (UDI) was surprised handing out flyers with false information regarding the new constitution (saying, among other things, that there would be no private health, no charter schools, and no upper chamber, all lies) So, a normal day in the Reject Campaign. She was called out by President Boric, which caused outrage at the UDI which accused Boric of "totalitarism".

Socialismo Democrático confirmed that Michelle Bachelet will apear in their franja electoral in favour of Approve. Franja electoral starts in August 5th and I'm absolutely thrilled at having 15 daily minutes of lies and misinformation provided by the Reject campaign.

[kaoras]

Latest polling:

Cadem: Approve 37 (-1) Reject (-1)
Activa: Approve 30 | Reject 45
MORI: Approve 44 | Reject 47
Signos: Approve 38 (+1) Reject 46 (-1)
Data Influye: Approve 43 (+2) Reject 48 (+2)
Criteria: Approve 36 | Reject 45 (+1)

Momentum for Approve has stalled. Data Influyes and MORI, the ones with the closest results, are pollster that have some leftwing bias. Right now, is looking like a 2017 redux if you exclude undecideds.

Government has also repeatedly shot himself on the foot through a series of gaffes and is now pushing for the government parties to reach an accord for reforms to the new constitution in case of a win for Approve, but is not clear what that would entail

Franja electoral is also here, though doesn't seem to be having much of an effect on polling.

Decide Chile polling average has Reject 46,9 and Approve 37,2

[skbl17]

You know, I'm curious as to what will happen if (and, as seems likely according to polling, when) the proposed constitution is rejected in a few weeks. Sure, the 1980 document (with its various assorted amendments) will remain in force, but the 2020 plebiscite result makes me think that there is still some appetite for constitutional change even if it's not this document.

It would be unfortunate for supporters of change if the "Reject" result is taken to mean "carry on with absolutely no changes to the current document whatsoever".

[Oryxslayer]

You know, I'm curious as to what will happen if (and, as seems likely according to polling, when) the proposed constitution is rejected in a few weeks. Sure, the 1980 document (with its various assorted amendments) will remain in force, but the 2020 plebiscite result makes me think that there is still some appetite for constitutional change even if it's not this document.

It would be unfortunate for supporters of change if the "Reject" result is taken to mean "carry on with absolutely no changes to the current document whatsoever".

I don't think anyone knows, which is what the conservatives are hoping for, since the old one is the incumbent and therefore default option if no other presents itself.  The Reject for Reformers certainly have no plan, which is why I suspect it is just a electoral safe house for those who don't want to go against their voters.

Which is perhaps a side effect of this process never entirely being about the complicated process of constitutional change. Do we really think that such a large percentage of the electorate wanted such changes that their tickets ended up pursuing.  Likely no. There however was such support based on opinion polls for giving Pinera the finger after the protests and incompetence,  any many who cast ballots probably did on that basis. Now voters are being asked to sign off on something they probably have not read, in an environment full of conflicting (miss)information.  Do we really think that such a large percentage disagrees with what is offered,  if they understood what will be before them? Likely no, once again.  But once again opinion polls say that the electorate is in favor of giving their president the finger,  and the fact he supports Yes is all the information needed.

[kaoras]

You know, I'm curious as to what will happen if (and, as seems likely according to polling, when) the proposed constitution is rejected in a few weeks. Sure, the 1980 document (with its various assorted amendments) will remain in force, but the 2020 plebiscite result makes me think that there is still some appetite for constitutional change even if it's not this document.

It would be unfortunate for supporters of change if the "Reject" result is taken to mean "carry on with absolutely no changes to the current document whatsoever".

If you believe the Reject camp, they are open to changes and to replace the 1980 constitution. As a gesture of good will they approved lowering the current constitution quorums to 4/7, which was approved today. The problem is, the only changes they will agree to are cosmetic ones with no real practical effects. As Oryx asaid, the Reject for Reform have no real plan on what they do want to change

[LAKISYLVANIA]

One caveat is that 1988 results were very strange even for the time, because the urban rural divide of that election has never been replicated. Left strenght in rural areas has declined in the last elections, as I mentioned in my region-by-region breakdown, but overall, the Left is still stronger in rural areas than, for example, in the 2000 election.

What I also find interesting is that in a lot of countries the southern portions are more left wing than the northern one for some reason. Perhaps this is a myth or just bias from the countries i follow (it really isn't like that too in the USA). But still, there is often a north-south divide.

[icc]

One caveat is that 1988 results were very strange even for the time, because the urban rural divide of that election has never been replicated. Left strenght in rural areas has declined in the last elections, as I mentioned in my region-by-region breakdown, but overall, the Left is still stronger in rural areas than, for example, in the 2000 election.

What I also find interesting is that in a lot of countries the southern portions are more left wing than the northern one for some reason. Perhaps this is a myth or just bias from the countries i follow (it really isn't like that too in the USA). But still, there is often a north-south divide.

What a bizarre and random idea that is. The UK, Germany, Brazil all contradict that just off the top of my head.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

One caveat is that 1988 results were very strange even for the time, because the urban rural divide of that election has never been replicated. Left strenght in rural areas has declined in the last elections, as I mentioned in my region-by-region breakdown, but overall, the Left is still stronger in rural areas than, for example, in the 2000 election.

What I also find interesting is that in a lot of countries the southern portions are more left wing than the northern one for some reason. Perhaps this is a myth or just bias from the countries i follow (it really isn't like that too in the USA). But still, there is often a north-south divide.

What a bizarre and random idea that is. The UK, Germany, Brazil all contradict that just off the top of my head.

Yes i think it might be a wrong bias, there probably is no such thing as a common north-south divide. I don't know why i had that idea, probably because of my own country and maybe also southern European nations as well as the Europe divide between north and south, north being more conservative / punctual (but that might be more of a germanic-romance cultural divide).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Collection of left-wing and center-left parties (FA/PC and some ex-Concertación) have proposed several changes they’d make to the new constitution if it’s approved, ranging from the specific (ending consecutive presidential reelection and limiting the jurisdiction of indigenous justice systems) to the general (rebalancing the legislature and the executive).

https://mobile.twitter.com/josefina_delaf/status/1557755770883584000?s=20&t=EbnxmSTD0i-zwNOWuRHSOw

[kaoras]

Collection of left-wing and center-left parties (FA/PC and some ex-Concertación) have proposed several changes they’d make to the new constitution if it’s approved, ranging from the specific (ending presidential reelection and limiting the jurisdiction of indigenous justice systems) to the general (rebalancing the legislature and the executive).

https://mobile.twitter.com/josefina_delaf/status/1557755770883584000?s=20&t=EbnxmSTD0i-zwNOWuRHSOw

Kinda dumb move that was being pushed by Boric. Basically conceding that the new constitution is something bad that needs to be fixed (though they were already losing that debate). Almost all the changes are just saying "No, we aren't going to expropriate your house" and similar plus some of the tidbits that you mention (not really a fan of no reelections but whatever)

[kaoras]

SERVEL revealed the new assigned voting precincts, which now are supposed to be the one near your home. Of course, SERVEL being SERVEL, I still have to cross all my city to vote, and my mother was assigned a precinct further away than her previous one.

But judging for Twitter it seems that it worked out for most people, but the geographic correlation will not be perfect.

[kaoras]

Latest polls:

CADEM: Approve 38 (+1) Reject 46 (-1)
Activa: Approve 34 (+4) Reject 44 (-1)
Signos: Approve 38 (=) Reject 44(-2)
UDD: Went from Reject +9 to +10
Black and white (the infamous Sichel pollster): Approve 41 (+2) Reject 59 (-2)

So, Approve still has a bit of gas in the tank. It also has come to my attention than most polls show that support for the New Constitution behaves like a U, stronger with the young (18-30) and the elderly (+60), which is well, quite unusual. Elderly turnout has been depressed since the pandemic began and the youth has been very engaged since the social uprising, with the highest turnouts of all age groups. With compulsory voting those differentials should banish.

Next Saturday is the last day to publish polls, though I should still be able to get leaks like in the last election.

[kaoras]

Last polls before the prohibition:

Activa: Approve 33% (-1) Reject 46 (+2%)
CADEM: Approve 37% (-1) Reject 46%
UDD: Approve 39% Reject 49%
Atlas Intel: Approve 39% Reject 55%
Black And White:Approve 42% (+1) Reject 58% (-1)
Signos: Approve 43% (+5) Reject 46% (+2)

Save for Signos, not really a significant movement. Approve basically needs a big polling error or that people not into politics that can't be bothered to answer polls breaks heavily for them (which, I wouldn't count on it, if anything they most likely would go with reject to stick it to Boric)

Final Decide Chile polling average (though lacking many polls such as Signos or world famous Atlas Intel) has Approve 37,7 and Reject 48,2.

[kaoras]

After the poll silence begun, most discussion has moved on what will happen in the likely event of Reject win.

The Right is seemingly on board with a new convention, but with different rules. They want less members, les indigenous seats, national closed lists and having an "expert comitee" to "support" the new convention (how that would be elected is anyone guess). I actually like their proposed election system, would be more proportional and more interesting. But people really wouldn't like having to vote for parties and not for persons. They are open to keeping parity and seem to have discarded doing a new referendum to decide whether doing another convention or not.

Boric said that doing a new plebiscite to decide a new mechanism is unnecessary and that there should be a new convention similar to the last one. People on the left also want a new convention with parity between men and women but are open to doing some changes. The thing they all agree is that they don't want independent lists, which will also not sit well with the electorate. Prohibiting independents list is inviting a landslide for PDG and other populist outfits.

So, on all accounts there will likely be a new election soon for us political nerds, which would be moderately fun. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a f**king disgrace. Chile had a chance at real, structural change and they took a piss on it because "muh I don't like the incumbent". Italy 2016 all over again, I guess (except even worse because the problems with the Chilean constitution are worse).

[kaoras]

Last days of campaign has been really rough for Approve to say at least. First, the leader of the Mapuche extremist organization CAM (behind some of the fire attacks in the Mapuche conflict in the south), Hector Llaitul, was arrested and it was revealed that the Social Development Minister had called him, so she resigned. Yesterday a video of Approve rally in Valparaíso went viral because of a very inappropriate performance with a Chilean flag, and that is what everybody is talking about. And today cyclist for Approve clashed with huasos for Reject on Santiago in a very confusing incidents (both sides claim the other started).

And like the chilean meme goes: ya era la wea cabros.

At this point I just hope it gets close enough to get some semi-interesting maps lol.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Tía Pikachu didn't die for this.

[Mike88]

No poll leaks after the blackout?