Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Antonio the Sixth]

How the f**k is DC surging back to relevance now, of all times? From everything I've seen, they are an utterly useless moderate-hero party that stands up for nothing but the (increasingly hated) status quo. They seem like the last party that would benefit from this political climate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How the f**k is DC surging back to relevance now, of all times? From everything I've seen, they are an utterly useless moderate-hero party that stands up for nothing but the (increasingly hated) status quo. They seem like the last party that would benefit from this political climate.

Well, in this election in particular everyone, including me, underestimated the state of the DC's machine. PS and PPD only coordinated in Valparaíso (where they won) because they assumed the DC had declined more or less to their level. They were wrong. If they (and some other progressive parties) had united in the Metropolitan Region they could have argued that DC triumph happened only because of the rightist vote and would have won in several other places like Bio-Bio.

More generally, is basically FA's fault. PS, in particular, has tried hard to avoid a new Concertación because they hated DC's unloyalty under Bachelet's government but FA itself is too chaotic to reach agreements and many elements within them don't want leftist unity. Constituent Unity exists basically because FA went to inscribe their primaries when they were still negotiating unity primaries among all the left. Chile Vamos has the presidency of the Chamber of deputies because FA couldn't keep their ranks in line and the most recent attempt to regain control failed because of former FA members (Pamela Jiles among them ironically). All of this has pushed PS to an alliance with DC again. And at this point is hard to blame them. Some weeks ago I talked to my mom (a lifelong communist) about the possibility of PS allying with FA instead of DC and she said "Why? they are a fraud too". Honestly, I can not stress enough how much the center-left base (the ones who still voted New Majority in 2017) hates, hates, the FA, me included.

Well this is incredibly depressing, but I guess it's a tale as old as time. Radical edgelords and moderate hacks teaming up to tear the sane left apart. Wonderful.

Thanks for the explanation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume a Boric vs Kast runoff is guaranteed to be a Boric landslide?

[Antonio the Sixth]

holy sh**t Sichel is imploding

Hilarious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, the Kast surge was fun while it lasted (and while it was mostly to embarrass Sichel) but now I'm starting to fear Chile might actually end up with a far-right president. I admit it would be kind of hilarious to go along with a turbo-left constituent assembly, but it's not the kind of fun I'd wish on any county.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain).

Huh, TIL Chile is only 4 hours away from Europe. It's less of a distance than the most Eastern parts of Atlantic Canada, despite being on the Pacific side. Weird.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Polls close at 18:00 local time (22:00 in Spain).

Huh, TIL Chile is only 4 hours away from Europe. It's less of a distance than the most Eastern parts of Atlantic Canada, despite being on the Pacific side. Weird.

In my country, the difference is even less, just 3 hours difference. I believe this is because of Daylight saving time, as Chile is now almost in the Summer season and Europe is almost in winter.

Ahh, right, I didn't factor in DST. Still, interesting that the timezone distance is so small.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to official results?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If these are the final results it would be pretty ominous for the runoff, honestly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh well. If/when the Constituent Assembly approves a new constitution, wouldn't that nullify the terms of all federal offices anyway?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I find it interesting that, as the counting went on, Boric gained relative to Kast while Sichel gained relative to Provoste. I know it's probably not worth overinterpreting, but it might say something interesting about the different electoral coalitions behind the "old" and "new" lefts and rights, respectively.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there enough centrist Chileans who like Bachelet but were still unsure about Boric for this endorsement to have a significant impact?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to the live results?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Link to the live results?

https://www.servelelecciones.cl/

https://live.decidechile.cl/#/ev/2021.12/ct/2021.12.P/

Thanks!

[Antonio the Sixth]

The lack of public transportation is just criminal. Just watch any report on the news. And they are worse precisely in the areas more proclive to Boric.

So the administration is basically all in for Kast?

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Chile you don't vote in your nearest precinct, they send you randomly to some place within your comuna (I literally have to cross all my city to vote despite having a precinct at 5 minutes walking distance), that's why it could depress turnout.

What the f**k. That's one of the stupidest ways to hold elections I could think of. Is it really that hard to have one polling place for every neighborhood??

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Chile you don't vote in your nearest precinct, they send you randomly to some place within your comuna (I literally have to cross all my city to vote despite having a precinct at 5 minutes walking distance), that's why it could depress turnout.

What the f**k. That's one of the stupidest ways to hold elections I could think of. Is it really that hard to have one polling place for every neighborhood??

For Servel? Yes, the only thing they do somewhat competently is counting fast. There was a law approved to assign you to your nearest precinct (before that, SERVEL said it was "impossible to do") but couldn't be applied in time for the elections.

...something that almost every country on Earth does and in some cases has been doing for multiple centuries is "impossible to do"? lmao, okay

Sounds like these people and the NYC BoE would get along

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, nice to see something good come out of Latin America in this dreary day up North. For the reasons people here cited, I don't expect Boric to pass much of anything legislatively, but the most important thing is ensuring the Constitutional Convention can work effectively to dismantle the Pinochetista regime. The Chilean left is playing the long game here, so it can afford some short-term setbacks. A truly democratic constitution will make up for all of them and more.

[Antonio the Sixth]

While we are in this break, some political updates:

The right is trying to regroup and figuring out who are going to be their leaders. RN and UDI presidents invited everyone from the republicans to DC and PDG to unite as opposition to Boric (lol). DC obviously says no. EVOPOLI supposedly doesn't want to be in the same coalition as Kast so the most likely scenario is status quo (CP+ or whatever name they choose this time on one hand and in the other, Kast's  REP).

DC is having internal elections on January 23th. There are three lists: One of the conservative faction led by deputy Joanna Pérez, one from the progressive faction led by La Granja mayor Felipe Delpín (says that DC shouldn't be opposition to Boric as has been stated by the current party leaders) and former DC youth leader Diego Calderón who also seems to be progressive and socially liberal.

Everyone knows that Boric is going to have PS ministers, but they still don't figure it out how. PS wants to enter formally Apruebo Dignidad (along with PPD, PR and PL lol), but Apruebo Dignidad just want them to be a "government party" (they talk about different circles, AD is the inner one, then in the next one they would put PS)

AD is really shooting itself in the foot with this gatekeeping bullsh*t. I get that you don't want to make it Concertacion 2.0, but it should be enough to keep the non-socialist parties out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

While we are in this break, some political updates:

The right is trying to regroup and figuring out who are going to be their leaders. RN and UDI presidents invited everyone from the republicans to DC and PDG to unite as opposition to Boric (lol). DC obviously says no. EVOPOLI supposedly doesn't want to be in the same coalition as Kast so the most likely scenario is status quo (CP+ or whatever name they choose this time on one hand and in the other, Kast's  REP).

DC is having internal elections on January 23th. There are three lists: One of the conservative faction led by deputy Joanna Pérez, one from the progressive faction led by La Granja mayor Felipe Delpín (says that DC shouldn't be opposition to Boric as has been stated by the current party leaders) and former DC youth leader Diego Calderón who also seems to be progressive and socially liberal.

Everyone knows that Boric is going to have PS ministers, but they still don't figure it out how. PS wants to enter formally Apruebo Dignidad (along with PPD, PR and PL lol), but Apruebo Dignidad just want them to be a "government party" (they talk about different circles, AD is the inner one, then in the next one they would put PS)

AD is really shooting itself in the foot with this gatekeeping bullsh*t. I get that you don't want to make it Concertacion 2.0, but it should be enough to keep the non-socialist parties out.

PS itself is made up of third wayers and the executive office and parliamentary coalition is already self-compromising, how much of a big tent do you need?

Enough to have a realistic shot at a parliamentary majority would be nice. Clearly AD in its current form falls significantly short of that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Political and convention updates:

RN will do a "party convention" on May 1st to define whether to keep its alliance with UDI and EVOPOLI.

Boric did a meeting with all the congressmen of the 2 coalitions that support his government, Apruebo Dignidad and Socialismo Democrático, to "order" the house and define legislative priorities. There was some talk afterwards about merging AD and SD with most agreeing but saying that it would take time.

After a very tortuous process and negotiation, the Politic System committee on the Constitutional Convention reached an accord. This accord includes all of the left, from the ex-lista del pueblo to the socialists, with the exception of the non-PS ex concertación (Colectivo del Apruebo), whose representative, DC Fuad Chaín, said that the convention was putting the democracy in danger because of Venezuela or something and left the table, which made the conversation go much more smoothly afterwards. The right was present in the negotiations but didn't sign the accord and says it will only vote for the aspects it likes. For what is worth, Marcela Cubillos said that overall, the deal was terrible because it is covert parliamentarism or something (it really isn't).

Main points:
-Presidential system, without VP or Minister of Goverment, just the president.
-Presidential period of 4 years, with a single reelection.
-Asymmetrical bicameralism: A lower house, Congreso de Diputadas y Diputados which will have preeminence to approve and propose laws and composed by at least 155 members. An upper house, Cámara de las Regiones with attributions on the budget, territorial issues, and core constitutional reforms.
-Compulsory voting, and voluntary for those aged 16 and 17.

Electoral system is unspecified, but it must be proportional and opens the door for a nationwide 3% threshold. In general, it incorpores a lot of things about the Conventional Convention elections, like parity and reserved seats for indigenous peoples and afro descendants (whose list got 10% in the conventional elections in the Arica district but didn't get elected).

It also gives more power to Congress and is slightly more balanced that the current hiper-presidential system, but I'm not exactly in love with keeping the presidential system. Full acord here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uNPcPy70J4_CGenx0cvZwk0RVPxgnT0D/view

These all look like positive changes, though they don't know as far as we might have liked.

Two questions. First, do we know anything about the voting system for the House of Regions? Hopefully it's more proportional than the current Senate.

Also, maybe this goes without saying, but I assume all the supermajority requirements enshrined in the Pinochet constitutions are gone?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a f**king disgrace. Chile had a chance at real, structural change and they took a piss on it because "muh I don't like the incumbent". Italy 2016 all over again, I guess (except even worse because the problems with the Chilean constitution are worse).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I'm gonna be honest. Even though unlike past elections I won't be a poll watcher, I don't think I'm gonna be in the mood of commenting much tonight. But if the results are close enough to have interesting maps, I will do geographical analysis later. (Though maybe not region by region) and will probably start a new thread with the political developments.

I'm really sorry, Kaoras. I can imagine how disheartening this moment must be for you and all Chileans who had hopes of finally achieving real change. Please don't lose hope - no matter how dark things get (and things are pretty dark in my countries too right now) there's always a way forward.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever hand-wringing you want to do about the proposed constitution being a woke wishlist or whatnot, the simple truth is that today Pinochet is laughing in his grave. I'm sure that's gonna please some people here, but hopefully none of the red avatars.

I really want to hope Lumine is right and a more modest constitutional reform still has a chance to go through, but at this point I'll believe it when I see it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever hand-wringing you want to do about the proposed constitution being a woke wishlist or whatnot, the simple truth is that today Pinochet is laughing in his grave. I'm sure that's gonna please some people here, but hopefully none of the red avatars.

I really want to hope Lumine is right and a more modest constitutional reform still has a chance to go through, but at this point I'll believe it when I see it.

I mean, before this is anything else it’s the greatest self-inflicted wound the Chilean left has created since the return to democracy, if not in its history. If the result had been more aligned with the polls, something like 55-45, we could chalk that up to the effects of fake news and misinformation or say that the proposal would have had majority approval if they’d just made XYZ changes to the text or if the campaign had just not been stupid and alienating (although of course the media is partly to blame in amplifying the voices of certain people over others in the debate). But my God, this is an absolute, society-wide rejection that shows how brutally out of touch the devotees of Apruebo were. There’s no excuse. It’s not hand-wringing, it’s acknowledging that an overwhelming majority of Chileans across every part of society did not like this and did not want it.

But acting like this means 62% of people support Pinochet and his constitution - and I don’t think you’re doing this, I know you’re smarter than that, but I have seen many reacting in that way - is precisely the attitude that demonstrates just how out of touch Apruebo was as a whole in misunderstanding why many people, including many on the left, simply did not like this proposal. Furthermore, it’s exactly what Kast, Rojo Edwards, Gonzalo de la Carrera et al. want you to think. I have no doubt that many voted Rechazo precisely because they believed that a new constitution was inevitable and the process would still continue, and that if the vote had been strictly between the old and new constitutions it would have been much closer and the new one may have won. But for many, many reasons - some reasonable, some rooted in fake news, some racist, etc. - many people of all ideological stripes did not want this specific proposal to be Chile’s constitution.

In conclusion, the Lista del Pueblo and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

Out of curiosity, is there anything in this draft constitution that a principled leftist ought to oppose on substantive grounds? I'm genuinely asking, as so far I haven't heard of any suggestion thereof, but I obviously haven't been following as closely.

I get that there was plenty of stuff that was unpalatable to "normies", and to the extent that the Constituent failed to account for that they obviously made a colossal political blunder, but that doesn't mean I can't despair at the normies' stupidity for making those a dealbreaker instead of focusing on what really matters.