Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[PSOL]

How did PTS do?

[Estrella]

Big Ernst Thalmann energy here:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1462608058899644419

Good, associating with the upscale left in Chile most likely caused a depressing effect on PC. Boric’s awful campaigning depressed the entire working class to lead to this.

The upscale left and the useful idiots in the PC ruined a once in a lifetime opportunity by doing the same mistakes as what was done in 1968 France, abort the revolution led by their own union in hopes that electoralism would help their @$$es. Unlike then, there was no overarching Soviet Union that made them do it and—most importantly—Jadue could have won this election had he been more aggressive and gone for owning the rich instead of kowtowing towards the unpopular front/diet electoralism nonsense.

This is hilarious on so many levels, not least that 1) "abort the revolution" as if Chile was 1910s Russia, 2) "upscale left" - PSOL, meet Red Velvet, Red Velvet, meet PSOL, 3) there's actually a second round and you have to win that too, 4) I'm not sure whatever alternative to electoralism would be less unpopular, 5) Boric's campaign was for from perfect, but I don't think Jadue or Artés or whoever could get out the working-class vote (as I said in a previous post, what does it even mean to be working class today?) any better.

Another fun-filled day at the Cult of the Ice Axe!

[PSOL]

Big Ernst Thalmann energy here:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1462608058899644419

Good, associating with the upscale left in Chile most likely caused a depressing effect on PC. Boric’s awful campaigning depressed the entire working class to lead to this.

The upscale left and the useful idiots in the PC ruined a once in a lifetime opportunity by doing the same mistakes as what was done in 1968 France, abort the revolution led by their own union in hopes that electoralism would help their @$$es. Unlike then, there was no overarching Soviet Union that made them do it and—most importantly—Jadue could have won this election had he been more aggressive and gone for owning the rich instead of kowtowing towards the unpopular front/diet electoralism nonsense.

This is hilarious on so many levels, not least that 1) "abort the revolution" as if Chile was 1910s Russia, 2) "upscale left" - PSOL, meet Red Velvet, Red Velvet, meet PSOL, 3) there's actually a second round and you have to win that too, 4) I'm not sure whatever alternative to electoralism would be less unpopular, 5) Boric's campaign was for from perfect, but I don't think Jadue or Artés or whoever could get out the working-class vote (as I said in a previous post, what does it even mean to be working class today?) any better.

Another fun-filled day at the Cult of the Ice Axe!

Chile 2018-2020 was quite literally 1968 France, being a transitory state between a protest and a revolution. It ended similarly, with the main nominal communist party ending the strike to focus on electoralism and thus aborting what could have been. On the electoral matters, Jadue throughout the campaign was far less cringe and off-putting than Bobo Boric.

Keep failing Lib, maybe the elites will slip up and you’ll win once Chile becomes a liberal democracy after decades of Kast’s iron rule. Maybe then the cult of the Burkean compromise will be dead.

[Lourdes]

The first members of Congress from the lesbian and trans communities have been elected:

https://twitter.com/Movilh/status/1462602991928844289

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh well. If/when the Constituent Assembly approves a new constitution, wouldn't that nullify the terms of all federal offices anyway?

[Logical]

99,99% polls counted

Kast 27,91%
Boric 25,83%

Parisi 12,80%
Sichel 12,79%
Provoste 11,61%
MEO 7,61%
Artes 1,47%

Turnout: 47,3% (+0.6)

Kast did better on the final batches from Santiago so the gap remains slightly above 2%. Sichel is less than 100 votes away from Parisi. The second round will be highly competitive although I would favor Boric slightly.

Congress of Deputies results (99,98% counted)

Chile Podemos Mas (Centre right) 25,43% - 53
Apruebo Dignidad (Left) 20.94% - 37
Nuevo Pacto Social (Centre left) 17,16% - 37
Frente Social Cristiano (Far right) 11,18% - 15
Partido de la Gente (Populists) 8,45% - 6
Dignidad Ahora (Left) 5,10% - 3
Partido Ecologista Verde (Left) 4,83% - 2
Independientes Unidos (Right) 2,96% - 1
Unión Patriótica (Far left) 0,89% - 0
Partido de Trabajadores Revolucionarios (Far left trots) 0,81% - 0
Partido Progresista (Centre left) 0,73% - 0
Nuevo Tiempo (Far right) 0,07% - 0
Independent Candidates 1,44% - 1

Totals
Centre left/left/far left:  50,46%  - 79
Centre right/right/far right: 39,64%  - 68
Populists and independents: 9,89%  -  7

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Oh well. If/when the Constituent Assembly approves a new constitution, wouldn't that nullify the terms of all federal offices anyway?

That’d be up to them, I believe, although it’d likely do so for the Senate anyway since the powers and terms of that body would be radically changed. The dirty secret is that they’ll probably cut short the president’s term if Kast wins, but not Boric.

[buritobr]

Results in Vitacura, a high-income district in Santiago
Kast 51.20%, Sichel 34.26%, Boric 7.31%, Provoste 5.90%, Enríquez-Ominami 0.74%, Parisi 0.42%, Artés 0.18%

Results in La Pintana, a low-income district in Santiago
Boric 29.24%, Enríquez-Ominami 16.47%, Kast 16.46%, Provoste 13.79%, Parisi 13.44%, Sichel 8.37%, Artés 2.24%

https://www.emol.com/

In most of the countries, there is some polarization according to class, but in Chile we could see one of the highest levels of polarization.
While in North Atlantic countries the far-right is supported by a white low middle class, in Latin America, the richest people vote more easily to the far-right.

[Red Velvet]

Results in Vitacura, a high-income district in Santiago
Kast 51.20%, Sichel 34.26%, Boric 7.31%, Provoste 5.90%, Enríquez-Ominami 0.74%, Parisi 0.42%, Artés 0.18%

Results in La Pintana, a low-income district in Santiago
Boric 29.24%, Enríquez-Ominami 16.47%, Kast 16.46%, Provoste 13.79%, Parisi 13.44%, Sichel 8.37%, Artés 2.24%

https://www.emol.com/

In most of the countries, there is some polarization according to class, but in Chile we could see one of the highest levels of polarization.
While in North Atlantic countries the far-right is supported by a white low middle class, in Latin America, the richest people vote more easily to the far-right.

Problem is that the left is only looking at Santiago. We all know how the big city vote falls down between class lines at this point. Whoever gets the North (and Parisi voters) is the person who wins this election.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-22/chile-peso-stocks-jump-as-right-wing-leads-presidential-race

"Chile Peso, Stocks Soar as Election Boosts Resurgent Right Wing"

Stock markets up more than 8%

[jaichind]

Cadem poll has it tied at 39 39 for second round

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-22/chile-peso-stocks-jump-as-right-wing-leads-presidential-race

"Chile Peso, Stocks Soar as Election Boosts Resurgent Right Wing"

Stock markets up more than 8%

But I was told Kast was an extremist who hates democracy!

[CumbrianLefty]

Well he is, pretty much.

New to how stock markets work are we?

[Colbert]

Here are the results without count independants


RN   11.1 (worst result since 1965)
UDI   10.8 (worst result since 1989)
PR   10.7
PG   8.6
PC   7.5 (best result since 1973)
PS   5.5 (worst result since 1989)
PEV   4.9 (best result since creation in 2006)
CS   4.6
PDC   4.2 (worst result since 1953)
RD   4.1
PD   3.9 (worst result since 1945) (did not run between 1949 and 1973)
EP   3.5
CMN   3.3
PH   3.1 (worst result since 2005)
CU   2.8
PEG   2.0 (worst result since creation in 2009)
Prad   1.8 (worst result since creation, between 1852 and 1855*)
FRVS   1.7
PL   1.5 (best result since 1989)
UP   0.9
PTR   0.8
PP   0.7 (worst result since creation in 2010)
PCC   0.7
CDD   0.4
PRID   0.4 (worst result since creation in 2006)
PNC   0.2
NT   0.1



By block :

all lefts : 50.9 and 79 seats
all rights : 48.9 and 75 seats
1 independant seat



* https://es-academic.com/dic.nsf/eswiki/421220

[Red Velvet]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-22/chile-peso-stocks-jump-as-right-wing-leads-presidential-race

"Chile Peso, Stocks Soar as Election Boosts Resurgent Right Wing"

Stock markets up more than 8%

But I was told Kast was an extremist who hates democracy!

Yeah and he is. Since when “markets” and “democracy” ever go along?  

I guess when you’re from US you don’t have that historical perspective because both (and only) options are pretty much the same for these people.

[crals]

Wow, biggest party on 11%... even in South America that's unusual, no?

[kaoras]

To Colber, besides not understanding most of your acronyms, I can tell that you are drawing continuities between parties that don't really have anything to do with each other.

PPD and the old Democratic Parties are absolutely different traditions. Is also wrong to draw a continuity between RN and PN.

To everything else. Well, I have to admit that the polls were right, which is really shocking to me, but even then it was the middle scenario, Kast narrowly ahead.

All the problems that the left had exploded on its face. While Red Velvet is trying to link it too much to other countries, it's true that FA has problems appealing to traditionally left low-income voters. In fact, I talked extensively about that in my arguments with seb_pard. To put an example, FA talks a lot about the "Sistema Nacional de Cuidados", which is a proposal to give benefits to women for unpaid domestic works, they feature this extensively as a huge vote winner despite that most people have no idea what it actually is. And in general, the woke/activist left vibe that FA gives is called "ñuñoismo" in Chile and well, from a quick check the best Boric comuna was... Ñuñoa. In any case, the right really has a huge problem in Santiago. In 2017 for the first time, it voted to the left of the nation and the disparity between the Metropolitan Region and nationwide results are totally unprecedent. Boric did better in middle class areas but his results in the poor areas were good, though Ominami got extremely high results there. Parisi limited success in Santiago has to do with cultural reasons that I'm not able to explain.

I have also had talked extensively about how fertile ground was for populism, and well, Parisi and Kast to a lesser extent are a reflection of that. Parisi did very well in the ancestral left wing areas that had been trending away from it. Not just the North, but also Metro Concepción that pre-1973 was the leftist city in the country and has the oldest trend against the left, dating back to 2005-2009. The left managed to hold on to the Norte Chico, in Atacama I believe for Provoste favourite daughter effect and in Coquimbo because that region is so left win that Boric still came out on top. (Also, Coquimbo is kinda different in terms of economic activities). In the South it was a Kast landslide in the areas most affected by the Mapuche conflict (Araucanía-Arauco) which has been very violent in recent years, he promised heavy-handed military response. The rest of the south Provoste did well in rural areas wich combined with the natural right lean of those regions meant that Kast won everything save for Magallanes, another left-wing stronghold and Boric home region.

Something that I want to make clear also is that in the first round Boric campaign was decisively not "STOP FASCISM", he tried to put a positive message but was drowned by the terror campaign. But the results had a huge demoralizing effect and the knee-jerk reaction among leftist voters has been, well, "stop fascism". That's why I'm pessimistic about the second round. Is very much winnable, but I don't know if Boric has the ability to pull that off (more than Boric, the people that surround him)

[Antonio the Sixth]

I find it interesting that, as the counting went on, Boric gained relative to Kast while Sichel gained relative to Provoste. I know it's probably not worth overinterpreting, but it might say something interesting about the different electoral coalitions behind the "old" and "new" lefts and rights, respectively.

[kaoras]

Results by Comuna. Parisi got the North, Boric the centre+Magallanes, Kast the South

[kaoras]

I find it interesting that, as the counting went on, Boric gained relative to Kast while Sichel gained relative to Provoste. I know it's probably not worth overinterpreting, but it might say something interesting about the different electoral coalitions behind the "old" and "new" lefts and rights, respectively.

It's all about Santiago. Santiago usually counts slower but before now it never really mattered because the result of the Metropolitan region was always almost identically to the nationwide total. The last time Santiago voted significantly different than the rest of the country was in the '60s when it was more right wing!

This is the first time ever in presidential elections where the results at 100% counted are meaningfully different than those at 5%.

[buritobr]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-22/chile-peso-stocks-jump-as-right-wing-leads-presidential-race

"Chile Peso, Stocks Soar as Election Boosts Resurgent Right Wing"

Stock markets up more than 8%

Stock markets up? Not good news!

The Berlin stock market went up on January 30th 1933, when You Know Who became the chancellor. The São Paulo stock market went up on October 29th 2018, one day after Bolsonaro was elected.

[buritobr]

I find it interesting that, as the counting went on, Boric gained relative to Kast while Sichel gained relative to Provoste. I know it's probably not worth overinterpreting, but it might say something interesting about the different electoral coalitions behind the "old" and "new" lefts and rights, respectively.

It's all about Santiago. Santiago usually counts slower but before now it never really mattered because the result of the Metropolitan region was always almost identically to the nationwide total. The last time Santiago voted significantly different than the rest of the country was in the '60s when it was more right wing!

This is the first time ever in presidential elections where the results at 100% counted are meaningfully different than those at 5%.

Yeah. Alessandri won Santiago in 1970. Allende was elected because of the north.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Wow, biggest party on 11%... even in South America that's unusual, no?

Kinda, it would definitely be weird in say Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia or Ecuador  but it's become the norm in Brazil (2010 PT: 17%, 2014 PT: 14%, 2018 PSOL: 12%) and Peru (2020 AP: 10% [with 15% of null and blank votes], 2021 PL: 13%), and Colombia may be heading that way as well (2014 U: 19%, 2018 CD: 18%)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Well he is, pretty much.

New to how stock markets work are we?

Markets don't tend to like anti-democratic leaders. If Kast was truly anti-democratic/an extremist who was going to end democracy in Chile markets would fall, not rise.

[Dan the Roman]

Well he is, pretty much.

New to how stock markets work are we?

Markets don't tend to like anti-democratic leaders. If Kast was truly anti-democratic/an extremist who was going to end democracy in Chile markets would fall, not rise.

He is a check on the Constitutional Convention. The greatest danger atm would be them going totally rogue. Maybe Boric would stand up to them. Maybe not. But Kast would.