Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I somehow get the impression that this massive polarisation of Chilean politics is not ideal and will probably end quite badly. Oh well.

[jaichind]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chile-celebrity-economist-surprises-with-kingmaker-role/ar-AAQYvsC

"Chile Celebrity Economist Surprises With Kingmaker Role"

Since this came up earlier this article did quote a political analyst on the likely ideology of a Parisi voter

“Parisi’s voter is typically someone with a center-right ideology, that is also disenchanted with the political system,” said Claudio Fuentes, a political analyst and professor at Universidad Diego Portales.

[kaoras]

Activa Poll with transfers and a second-round tie (but done a week ago)

I think the left will blow it, communist and DC are already at it with the infighting. Plus Kast speech last night was much better than Boric's

[Lord Halifax]

I think the left will blow it, communist and DC are already at it with the infighting. Plus Kast speech last night was much better than Boric's

So how bad will a Kast presidency be?

[kaoras]

I think the left will blow it, communist and DC are already at it with the infighting. Plus Kast speech last night was much better than Boric's

So how bad will a Kast presidency be?

I expect a very authoritarian a repressive response to whatever social problem pops up with a high chance the country ends up in flames again.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the left will blow it, communist and DC are already at it with the infighting. Plus Kast speech last night was much better than Boric's

So how bad will a Kast presidency be?

The real question would be what would happen when the now truly rivalrous sources of legitimacy - the Constitutional Convention and the Presidency - clash. Authoritarianism thrives in uncertain tussles over legitimacy that lack electoral rules, and Kast won't accept anything that neuters him politically.  

[H. Ross Peron]

I have also had talked extensively about how fertile ground was for populism, and well, Parisi and Kast to a lesser extent are a reflection of that. Parisi did very well in the ancestral left wing areas that had been trending away from it. Not just the North, but also Metro Concepción that pre-1973 was the leftist city in the country and has the oldest trend against the left, dating back to 2005-2009. The left managed to hold on to the Norte Chico, in Atacama I believe for Provoste favourite daughter effect and in Coquimbo because that region is so left win that Boric still came out on top. (Also, Coquimbo is kinda different in terms of economic activities). In the South it was a Kast landslide in the areas most affected by the Mapuche conflict (Araucanía-Arauco) which has been very violent in recent years, he promised heavy-handed military response. The rest of the south Provoste did well in rural areas wich combined with the natural right lean of those regions meant that Kast won everything save for Magallanes, another left-wing stronghold and Boric home region.

Something that I want to make clear also is that in the first round Boric campaign was decisively not "STOP FASCISM", he tried to put a positive message but was drowned by the terror campaign. But the results had a huge demoralizing effect and the knee-jerk reaction among leftist voters has been, well, "stop fascism". That's why I'm pessimistic about the second round. Is very much winnable, but I don't know if Boric has the ability to pull that off (more than Boric, the people that surround him)

I was wondering if Mapuches tended to be conservative voting but I guess that's not the case. How violent is this conflict in Aracunia?

[buritobr]

OK, Peru and Chile are different countries, but let's be a little more optimistic

There was also a very polarizing runoff in Peru.
In the following day after the first round in Peru, we though Fujimori would win.

[PSOL]

OK, Peru and Chile are different countries, but let's be a little more optimistic

There was also a very polarizing runoff in Peru.
In the following day after the first round in Peru, we though Fujimori would win.

Castillo was both the winner of the first round and his campaign advisors were stellar in leading the campaign to victory. Boric meanwhile is a complete failure and has terrible campaign advisors to a terrible candidate.

It’s already more bleak.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

OK, Peru and Chile are different countries, but let's be a little more optimistic

There was also a very polarizing runoff in Peru.
In the following day after the first round in Peru, we though Fujimori would win.

Actually, the first polls in the aftermath of the first round showed Castillo with massive leads. He was essentially an unknown to most people (in Lima).

[kaoras]

I have also had talked extensively about how fertile ground was for populism, and well, Parisi and Kast to a lesser extent are a reflection of that. Parisi did very well in the ancestral left wing areas that had been trending away from it. Not just the North, but also Metro Concepción that pre-1973 was the leftist city in the country and has the oldest trend against the left, dating back to 2005-2009. The left managed to hold on to the Norte Chico, in Atacama I believe for Provoste favourite daughter effect and in Coquimbo because that region is so left win that Boric still came out on top. (Also, Coquimbo is kinda different in terms of economic activities). In the South it was a Kast landslide in the areas most affected by the Mapuche conflict (Araucanía-Arauco) which has been very violent in recent years, he promised heavy-handed military response. The rest of the south Provoste did well in rural areas wich combined with the natural right lean of those regions meant that Kast won everything save for Magallanes, another left-wing stronghold and Boric home region.

Something that I want to make clear also is that in the first round Boric campaign was decisively not "STOP FASCISM", he tried to put a positive message but was drowned by the terror campaign. But the results had a huge demoralizing effect and the knee-jerk reaction among leftist voters has been, well, "stop fascism". That's why I'm pessimistic about the second round. Is very much winnable, but I don't know if Boric has the ability to pull that off (more than Boric, the people that surround him)

I was wondering if Mapuches tended to be conservative voting but I guess that's not the case. How violent is this conflict in Aracunia?

I don't like to talk much about it because is a very complicated topic that would take ages to explain and I already spend too much time on here. The mapuche conflict is the land reclamation of Mapuches of their ancestral lands, since the second Bachelet government and especially in the current one, it has reached unprecedents levels of violence with fire attacks at forest companies, agroindustry, tourism, regular houses, etc.

[jaichind]

Reading various investment bank research reports it seems the stock and bond market rallies are less about Kast since he merely performed at pre election polling but more about the Left losing their majority in Congress which means even if Boric wins he will hit a brick wall in trying to push for system change. 

[Octowakandi]

Reading various investment bank research reports it seems the stock and bond market rallies are less about Kast since he merely performed at pre election polling but more about the Left losing their majority in Congress which means even if Boric wins he will hit a brick wall in trying to push for system change. 

That makes sense. Usually business interests are more anti left than pro right per se.

[kaoras]

Let's take a closer look to Parisi voters

Nationwide:

Presidential elections:

Combined Left votes: 3.268.033
Combined Right: 2.859.623
Parisi: 899.403   

Parliamentary Elections:

Combined Left: 3.193.571
Combined Right: 2.508.396
PDG+Ind: 625.841
About 10% of Nulls and Blanks votes, against just 1% in the presidential elections.

At first glance, it looks like that left-wing voters are significantly less likely to spoil their votes down-ballot, but taking a closer look, for example, to Antofagasta, the strongest Parisi region:

Presidential Antofagasta:

Left: 75.739
Right:56.980
Parisi: 68.296   

Senate:
Left: 103.700
Right (CP+CU): 51.419   
PDG: 32.102   

Deputies:

Left: 89.890
Right: 58.545
PDG: 33.741   

Regional Council

Left: 93.564
Right: 52.100
PDG: 33.043   

So, in the north, half of Parisi voters voted for PDG down-ballot, the other half either spoiled his ballot or voted for the left. What I'm trying to show is why is incorrect to count Parisi voters squarely into the right bloc. Now, I don't have much faith in the Left ability to bring back those voters to the fold at the presidential level but I just wanted to show that Parisi drew a lot from traditional leftists, and is incorrect to assume that those people will automatically vote for kast.

[kaoras]

Provoste endorses Boric, saying she will not commit the same mistake as FA in 2017 (lol)

[Red Velvet]

I mean, some places in the North polarized between Parisi and Kast and that region was considered left-wing not that long ago, so I already assumed lots of his voters weren’t necessarily anti-left.

It’s worth questioning WHY they didn’t vote for Boric or even Provoste then. Parisi is a populist option, so I’m guessing it has a lot to do with cultural and regional discrepancies between those areas and Santiago. The left needs to be less academic and exclusive with their language/rhetoric and focus on the improvement of the quality of life of people in places distant from the big capital.

And yes, that includes addressing matters like public safety and immigration, which the “city left” tends to ignore or call everyone with a proposal a bigot or a racist.

[kaoras]

I mean, some places in the North polarized between Parisi and Kast and that region was considered left-wing not that long ago, so I already assumed lots of his voters weren’t necessarily anti-left.

It’s worth questioning WHY they didn’t vote for Boric or even Provoste then. Parisi is a populist option, so I’m guessing it has a lot to do with cultural and regional discrepancies between those areas and Santiago. The left needs to be less academic and exclusive with their language/rhetoric and focus on the improvement of the quality of life of people in places distant from the big capital.

And yes, that includes addressing matters like public safety and immigration, which the “city left” tends to ignore or call everyone with a proposal a bigot or a racist.

Your second paragraph is true, but the third one is very stupid for the reasons that Estrella already told you.

[PSOL]

Nobody but right wing partisans make or break their vote on immigration, but they will if that is coupled with an undesirable candidate that has a “I’m better than you yokels” aura.

[Red Velvet]

I mean, some places in the North polarized between Parisi and Kast and that region was considered left-wing not that long ago, so I already assumed lots of his voters weren’t necessarily anti-left.

It’s worth questioning WHY they didn’t vote for Boric or even Provoste then. Parisi is a populist option, so I’m guessing it has a lot to do with cultural and regional discrepancies between those areas and Santiago. The left needs to be less academic and exclusive with their language/rhetoric and focus on the improvement of the quality of life of people in places distant from the big capital.

And yes, that includes addressing matters like public safety and immigration, which the “city left” tends to ignore or call everyone with a proposal a bigot or a racist.

Your second paragraph is true, but the third one is very stupid for the reasons that Estrella already told you.

Public Safety; Immigration and the Economy are among the topics that concern the most Chileans according to the polls, so I’m not sure it’s exactly “stupid” to address those first two topics as they have influence.

It’s not because they also happen to be discussed in the US that those topics are something exclusive to that country. And what you tend to see from the more highly-educated sectors of the left, be it in Chile, Brazil, US, Europe is that they either push down these topics under the rug and not address them or they look down on the people who bring them up. Sometimes both.

[Red Velvet]

Nobody but right wing partisans make or break their vote on immigration, but they will if that is coupled with an undesirable candidate that has a “I’m better than you yokels” aura.

You’d be surprised. Especially for people closer to the border (in Brazil it’s Roraima, in Chile I bet it’s on the North near Bolivia) and who get to feel most of the effects.

Besides, Public Safety (“delincuencia”) tends to be even more considered than immigration and that’s even more of a familiar topic that the left tends to run away from. It’s more the combination of multiple issues that speak to a cultural level than just “one single stuff”.

[kaoras]

Nobody but right wing partisans make or break their vote on immigration, but they will if that is coupled with an undesirable candidate that has a “I’m better than you yokels” aura.

You’d be surprised. Especially for people closer to the border (in Brazil it’s Roraima, in Chile I bet it’s on the North near Bolivia) and who get to feel most of the effects.

Besides, Public Safety (“delincuencia”) tends to be even more considered than immigration and that’s even more of a familiar topic that the left tends to run away from. It’s more the combination of multiple issues that speak to a cultural level than just “one single stuff”.

Is not stupid because people don't care about that. Is stupid thinking that the poor people in the zone with high criminality living in the poblaciones de Santiago are somehow "city elites" that don't care about criminality. In Bajos de Mena they definitely have that very high on their list of priorities and Boric still won that handily.

[njwes]

Is there any particular reason for the relatively high % of blank/null ballots in the parliamentary elections (especially when compared to the presidential %)?

[Red Velvet]

Nobody but right wing partisans make or break their vote on immigration, but they will if that is coupled with an undesirable candidate that has a “I’m better than you yokels” aura.

You’d be surprised. Especially for people closer to the border (in Brazil it’s Roraima, in Chile I bet it’s on the North near Bolivia) and who get to feel most of the effects.

Besides, Public Safety (“delincuencia”) tends to be even more considered than immigration and that’s even more of a familiar topic that the left tends to run away from. It’s more the combination of multiple issues that speak to a cultural level than just “one single stuff”.

Is not stupid because people don't care about that. Is stupid thinking that the poor people in the zone with high criminality living in the poblaciones de Santiago are somehow "city elites" that don't care about criminality. In Bajos de Mena they definitely have that very high on their list of priorities and Boric still won that handily.

Because they prioritize matters like Inequality since they live close to it. It’s likely more of an economy-based vote. The problem of income inequality is especially more easily seen and felt in a space of big urban agglomeration like the big cities.

Besides, I’m not talking about lower income groups in Santiago being the representatives of “city elites” but the representatives they might have voted for (the politicians) and a majority part of left academics and cultural progressives allies who define most of the rhetoric without taking into account regional differences. I’m saying this only based on what I saw from Boric performance in the debates though, who had a very different style from what I at least am used to see in LatAm.

I doubt the internal divisions in places in the North of Chile are the same in Santiago for example. That’s why you gotta look at how the vote broke down in those other places to understand, not just in the Santiago outskirts.

[kaoras]

Is there any particular reason for the relatively high % of blank/null ballots in the parliamentary elections (especially when compared to the presidential %)?

It's the electoral system, Open List PR which means a TON of candidates, very hard to get info on most of them, so many people simply don't even try to choose

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ex concertación and Chile Podemos Más are closing ranks around Boric and Kast, respectively, while Parisi has refused to endorse either candidate.