Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Okay, I think there are not going to be more polls, so here we are:

CADEM. Methodology: Live call to cellphones. N=1008

Kast 24% | Boric 19% | Provoste 11% | Sichel 8% | Parisi 7% | MEO 4% | Artés 1%
Second Round: Kast 44-Boric 40.

Data Influye. Online Panel

Boric 32% | Kast 27% | Provoste 13% | Sichel 9% | Parisi 8% | MEO 4% | Artés 2%

Criteria. Online Panel. N=1523 (No E segment, the poorest one)

Boric 24%| Kast 23% | Provoste 9% | Sichel 8% | Parisi 8% | Ominami 6% | Artés 2%

Activa-Pulso Ciudadano. Online Panel. N=1349

Kast 29,6% | Boric 25,7% | Provoste 14,7% | Sichel 12,3% | Parisi 10% | MEO 4,9% | Artés 2%

Feedback. E-Mail. N=5.064

Kast 36% | Boric 30% | Sichel 11% | Provoste 9% | Parisi 4% | MEO 2% | Artés 1%
Second Round: Kast 49% - Boric 41%

UDD. Online Panel. N=7613

Kast 25% | Boric 22% | Provoste 10% | Parisi 10% | Sichel 9% | MEO 5% | Artés 2%
Second Round: Boric 33% - Kast 33%

Atlas Intel. Online Panel. N= 2266. This one should be familiar for U.S posters and Atlas regulars!

Kast 31% | Boric 21.4% | Provoste 12,2% | Parisi 10.1% | Sichel 9.2% | MEO 4.2% | Artés 2.5%
Second Round: Kast 42.6% - Boric 36.7%

La Cosa Notra. Online Pane. N=600

Boric 36% | Kast 30% | Provoste 14%| Parisi 5% | Ominami 4% | Artés 2%
Second Round: Boric 54%- Kast 46%.

Universidad de Los Lagos. Face to face. Only Los Lagos region. N=384

Boric 19.3% | Kast 16.1%| Provoste 9.1% | Sichel 4.2% | Parisi 6.8% | MEO 2.8% | Artés 1.7%

Feedback-Universidad Católica del Norte. Face to Face. Only Antofagasta region. N=700

Provoste 12% | Boric 11% | Parisi 10% | Kast 9% | MEO 5% | Sichel 1% | Artés 0%:
Second Round: Boric 21%-Kast 13%


I was tempted to add a section of "Why this poll sucks" to every single poll but let's better not spit to the sky. Let's hope that there isn't any consistent bias in the kind of people that participates in Online Panels

[kaoras]

The bottom line is that most polls agree that Kast is in the first place and is the favourite for the second round. They also have Parisi surging close to Sichel and Provoste. I do find it fascinating how utterly bizarre-looking the face to face regional polls are.

Will the polls finally be right after all these years? What effects will have the last 2 weeks and the final debate? Is anyone guess. I'm inclined to believe that they are wrong because the people that tend to be on online panels (especially older people, who would have to be very educated) tend to lean to the right, but we'll see. There are some hilarious biases out there though, for example the national Feedback one has 90% of participation in the last elections, 88% of people very interested in politics, and 47% of people who lean right.

 The Kast surge is real though, as is the minor Parisi one, although I suspect that Parisi, who comes back to Chile tomorrow, will crash epically on the final debate once people are reminded of all of his scandals.

It also remains to be seen the kind of scrutiny Kast will face as the new frontrunner.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Will the final debate be remote?

[H. Ross Peron]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

[kaoras]

Will the final debate be remote?

Maybe, Boric has the Delta Variant so it depends if he test positive again in a few days. But his quarantine period ends the same day of the debate IIRC, so they could just delay it by a day.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

What?

[Estrella]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

What?

Bloomberg: Lopez Obrador Is Making Mexico’s Tragedy Worse

The inadequacy of Mexico’s pandemic response should be kept in some perspective, considering the failures of other countries to contain the virus. Less defensible is Lopez Obrador’s handling of the economy. Unlike the leaders of most major economies, he has rebuffed calls for aggressive fiscal stimulus to support workers and businesses. The government’s spending commitments amount to about 3% of GDP — one-third what G-20 countries as a whole are spending — and much of it is money repurposed from other programs. The funds are being doled out as microloans to small businesses, up to a maximum of just $25,000 pesos ($1,150), which most have already exhausted. Larger companies in the formal economy, which employs some 40% of Mexico’s labor force, have received no government assistance.

[Oryxslayer]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

What?

The key to understanding AMLO is that he idealizes the late one-party PRI era and its ideological non-commitments, policies, and prosperity under a veneer of revolutionary socialism.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

What?

Bloomberg: Lopez Obrador Is Making Mexico’s Tragedy Worse

The inadequacy of Mexico’s pandemic response should be kept in some perspective, considering the failures of other countries to contain the virus. Less defensible is Lopez Obrador’s handling of the economy. Unlike the leaders of most major economies, he has rebuffed calls for aggressive fiscal stimulus to support workers and businesses. The government’s spending commitments amount to about 3% of GDP — one-third what G-20 countries as a whole are spending — and much of it is money repurposed from other programs. The funds are being doled out as microloans to small businesses, up to a maximum of just $25,000 pesos ($1,150), which most have already exhausted. Larger companies in the formal economy, which employs some 40% of Mexico’s labor force, have received no government assistance.

That doesn't make him a conservative.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

AMLO is Mexican Jimmy Carter in terms of his small "c" conservative fiscal policy.

What?

The key to understanding AMLO is that he idealizes the late one-party PRI era and its ideological non-commitments, policies, and prosperity under a veneer of revolutionary socialism.

Completely agreed. But that doesn't make him either Conservative or conservative. AMLO is a left-wing welfare populist. The primary reason he opposes stimulus is because he views it as a giveaway to the rich, not because he's a champion of the free market.

[kaoras]

Impeachment of Piñera is today. PS deputy Jaime Naranjo is currently reading a 1300 pages speech in defense of the impeachment. His goal is to delay the vote until FA deputy Giorgio Jackson arrives at Congress past midnight (he is in quarantine until 00:00 today). The Opposition estimates that without Jackson they are exactly one vote short.

_{I think he is related in some way to the famous Oscar Naranjo, the protagonist of the Naranjazo in 1964, he represents Linares, which is very close to Curicó and in the same region}

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Impeachment of Piñera is today. PS deputy Jaime Naranjo is currently reading a 1300 pages speech in defense of the impeachment. His goal is to delay the vote until FA deputy Giorgio Jackson arrives at Congress past midnight (he is in quarantine until 00:00 today). The Opposition estimates that without Jackson they are exactly one vote short.

_{I think he is related in some way to the famous Oscar Naranjo, the protagonist of the Naranjazo in 1964, he represents Linares, which is very close to Curicó and in the same region}

Exciting! I’m on the edge of my seat

[kaoras]

Naranjo speech has gone on for 10 hours now, with a single 15 minutes break. Some minutes ago he rejected another 20-minute break.

[kaoras]

Latin America truly is the land of magical realism

Naranjo is still talking. In the last break, he talked briefly to the press and said "this is to be taken as fast I do for those whose human rights were abused, crimes that were left unpunished in the last (failed) impeachment. This is a gesture so this country, once and for all, doesn't accept a corrupt president. I'm willing to do any sacrifice so this country has a full democracy, I'm leaving a testimony that is possible to fight to the deepest force within a human for what is right and just"

In the afternoon there was talk that the impeachment would fail because DC deputy Jorge Sabag was in Chillán (500km south of Valparaiso) waiting for a test result and he initally said that he wouldn't go to vote. DC whipped him and he decided to travel to Congress in Valparaiso to vote yes. There, at the entrance, where the regional health authorities (SEREMI) waiting for him to stop him since he hadn't waited for the test result (I don't think they are legally able to do that since his only symptom was fatigue). With all the press waiting together with the SEREMI at the entrance, they stopped the car and it was... Gabriel Ascencio, the DC whip, who did that as a distraction so Sabag could enter on foot and incognito to Congress (he did enter)

Now Giorgio Jackson is on his way to Congress and the press is literally chasing him on the highway.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yoryo is in the building. I repeat, Yoryo is in the building.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Naranjo is finished and Piñera’s lawyer is speaking. After he finishes Naranjo can choose to reply or not, and if Naranjo chooses to reply he can have another response.

[kaoras]

Piñera has been impeached, with exactly 78 votes. This thing is doomed in the Senate but all of this has been pure epicness, Naranjo is a hero.

Now, I'm suddenly VERY interested in the results of district 18, where Naranjo is running for re-election

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I don’t get why not even one person on the right is willing to cut off a highly unpopular president who’s at the very end of what’s most likely his last term in office. I don’t see the political benefit to sticking with Piñera of all people.

[Octowakandi]

I don’t get why not even one person on the right is willing to cut off a highly unpopular president who’s at the very end of what’s most likely his last term in office. I don’t see the political benefit to sticking with Piñera of all people.

Eh it seems turning on a president from your general side usually doesn't work out well for those people. Especially since who knows what the mood is in say another four years. Long time in politics.

[kaoras]

Parisi tested positive for COVID so he will not be in the last debate and will not arrive to Chile before the first round.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Parisi tested positive for COVID so he will not be in the last debate and will not arrive to Chile before the first round.

The ultimate front porch campaign.

[Bilardista]

Parisi tested positive for COVID so he will not be in the last debate and will not arrive to Chile before the first round.

Who exactly votes for Parisi? Like what kind of voter does he appeal to?

[Lumine]

Parisi tested positive for COVID so he will not be in the last debate and will not arrive to Chile before the first round.

Who exactly votes for Parisi? Like what kind of voter does he appeal to?

Lower middle class, apolitical, disaffected or disechanted with politics - thus vulnerable to Parisi's textbook populist and "anti-elite" message -, believed by experts to focus around the 30-40 age group with an apparent stronger base in the North that dates back to 2013.

Back in 2013 his base of independent voters leaned more to the center-right (hence why most, but not all, went for Matthei against Bachelet), but polling suggests he's picking up voters from across the political spectrum. Although, initially, most people believe he was pulling votes from Sichel and/or Kast, apparently Boric (!) ranked first in terms of the second preference of those Parisi voters, which sort of makes sense given the anti-establishment political climate.

That seems to be the objective answer, since, in strictly personal terms, I have a very low opinion of anyone who buys into his nonsense. Just as his campaign resembles a pyramid scheme, his online supporters behave very much like a cult.

[Lumine]

I don’t get why not even one person on the right is willing to cut off a highly unpopular president who’s at the very end of what’s most likely his last term in office. I don’t see the political benefit to sticking with Piñera of all people.

A combination of factors, really.

For some its the belief that he should be allowed to finish his term, for others not wanting to give the opposition a win. Had they voted yes on either impeachment vote, they would have conceded the argument to the left (either on violence or corruption) and would have been hurt anyway by association. When you add to that the fact that Congress picks the new President and that the opposition majority can't really be relied upon not to choose one of their own, and that this comes just before the election, you have a set of reasons that make ditching Piñera seem like the larger and not the lesser evil for center-right or right congressmen.

When this first came up a few weeks ago there were several government congressmen giving serious thought to supporting the impeachment, but the context, timing and the whole filibuster shenanigans eventually made it politically undesirable for them to do so. Maybe, if this had come up in a different moment and not coincide with as many unexpected events as it did, one might (might) have seen a larger, more public internal revolt.

Still, in the hypothetical scenario this whole situation took place under a parliamentary system, and it was more like a purely political VONC, I have very little doubt they would have thrown him to the wolves. I have serious doubts about whether parliamentarism would ever work in Chile given our extremely fractured party system, but one disadvantage of our version of presidentialism is indeed how much it struggles to cope with political crises (with the end result of impeachments that are supposed to have a judicial basis becoming a political process).

[Bilardista]

Parisi tested positive for COVID so he will not be in the last debate and will not arrive to Chile before the first round.

Who exactly votes for Parisi? Like what kind of voter does he appeal to?

Lower middle class, apolitical, disaffected or disechanted with politics - thus vulnerable to Parisi's textbook populist and "anti-elite" message -, believed by experts to focus around the 30-40 age group with an apparent stronger base in the North that dates back to 2013.

Back in 2013 his base of independent voters leaned more to the center-right (hence why most, but not all, went for Matthei against Bachelet), but polling suggests he's picking up voters from across the political spectrum. Although, initially, most people believe he was pulling votes from Sichel and/or Kast, apparently Boric (!) ranked first in terms of the second preference of those Parisi voters, which sort of makes sense given the anti-establishment political climate.

That seems to be the objective answer, since, in strictly personal terms, I have a very low opinion of anyone who buys into his nonsense. Just as his campaign resembles a pyramid scheme, his online supporters behave very much like a cult.

 I see, thanks.