Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boric basically called Kast a nazi (his father was literally a nazi) and a tax evader (He has offshore accounts in Panamá) and Kast absolutely lost his mind. This is the best debate ever.

Omg do you have links?

The runoff between these two will probably be a bigger explosive event than Keiko Fujimori vs Pedro Castillo.

https://youtu.be/iCLptZmDRvo The moment in question.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah I’m watching some clips and Sichel is dead on the water.

Next president from Chile will either be Kast or Boric. Unless there’s an unpredictable big twist that causes the collapse of one of those.

[kaoras]

What is Artes saying?

Ah, the usual, no to the militarization of the Mapuche Conflict and saying that every form of fighting is valid for them until they achieve independence, putting the army to do something productive for once and make them build social housing, saying his program doesn't have a cost because he doesn't follow capitalist logic and that he would get the money by nationalizing the natural resources. He also tried to give his opening minute as a minute of silence for a woman that die in the protests last week, but was interrupted by one of the moderators.

Artés is my dream protest vote tbh.

As for the debate in general, there are 2 consensus: Provoste was among the winners, and Sichel was the worst. Analysts also highlighted that the leftist candidates seemed to have a tacit accord, not attacking each other and coordinating in taking down Sichel and Kast. While there wasn't any actual pre-debate coordination, it was very pleasing to see them helping each other and displaying unity (save for Artés that constantly attacked Boric, which actually helps him since it makes him look more moderate).

[kaoras]

Also, as if Sichel didn't have enough troubles, two new issues arose for him today. First, PS president Alvaro Elizalde claimed that Sichel begged him to be named sub-secretary in Bachelet's second government. But more serious, CHV and CNN Chile aired a reportage showing illegal financing by fishing companies to Sichel's parliamentary campaign in 2009 (when he ran for deputy for the DC)

All of this on top of his awful debate performance, and Sichel campaign right now is basically the "stop, he is already dead" meme.

I think we are officially in the total Sichel meltdown escenario.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

What is Artes saying?

Ah, the usual, no to the militarization of the Mapuche Conflict and saying that every form of fighting is valid for them until they achieve independence, putting the army to do something productive for once and make them build social housing, saying his program doesn't have a cost because he doesn't follow capitalist logic and that he would get the money by nationalizing the natural resources. He also tried to give his opening minute as a minute of silence for a woman that die in the protests last week, but was interrupted by one of the moderators.

Artés is my dream protest vote tbh.

As for the debate in general, there are 2 consensus: Provoste was among the winners, and Sichel was the worst. Analysts also highlighted that the leftist candidates seemed to have a tacit accord, not attacking each other and coordinating in taking down Sichel and Kast. While there wasn't any actual pre-debate coordination, it was very pleasing to see them helping each other and displaying unity (save for Artés that constantly attacked Boric, which actually helps him since it makes him look more moderate).

How did Kast do?

[kaoras]

What is Artes saying?

Ah, the usual, no to the militarization of the Mapuche Conflict and saying that every form of fighting is valid for them until they achieve independence, putting the army to do something productive for once and make them build social housing, saying his program doesn't have a cost because he doesn't follow capitalist logic and that he would get the money by nationalizing the natural resources. He also tried to give his opening minute as a minute of silence for a woman that die in the protests last week, but was interrupted by one of the moderators.

Artés is my dream protest vote tbh.

As for the debate in general, there are 2 consensus: Provoste was among the winners, and Sichel was the worst. Analysts also highlighted that the leftist candidates seemed to have a tacit accord, not attacking each other and coordinating in taking down Sichel and Kast. While there wasn't any actual pre-debate coordination, it was very pleasing to see them helping each other and displaying unity (save for Artés that constantly attacked Boric, which actually helps him since it makes him look more moderate).

How did Kast do?

There's no consensus. Some think he did well, other than he did very badly, especially because of his exchange with Boric and the scrutiny he faced over some of his proposals, like the moat. Personally, I think he was fine, not as good as the last debate but he did well with the exception of the Boric-Panamá thing. In any case, independent of your perception of Kast's performance, the abysmal performance of Sichel means that this likely will not be a setback for him.

[kaoras]

Today there was a radio debate, I just listened to a few parts because I couldn't be bothered to hear Sichel's loud and angry tone that bordered on screaming.

It seems that Boric was bad during it? But the only thing people are talking about is that Kast really wants to be called José Antonio and not just José, and Boric repeatedly called him José Kast to get on his nerves. Of course, the "Liberal" political analysts are afraid of this terrible level of authoritarianism, and not of the guy that basically wants emergency powers without congress approvals and to incarcerate leftists. I think they also talked about some scandal with Provoste's husband but nobody is paying much attention to that.

Ah, and Sichel's spokeswoman Katherina Martorell is being investigated by Contraloría due to irregularities in the purchase of cameras to the police when she was subsecretary of crime prevention during this goverment. She will probably have to resign as well (his campaign coordinator also resigned due to the fishing companies case). At this point the Sichel thing is not even funny, it's just sad.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

LMAO that Patricio Navia tweet reads like a parody.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Activa/Pulso Ciudadano poll

Boric: 21
Kast: 16
Provoste: 13
Sichel: 8
Parisi: 5
MEO: 3
Artés: 2
Blank: 8
Doesn’t know: 16
Won’t vote: 10

[Antonio the Sixth]

holy sh**t Sichel is imploding

Hilarious.

[kaoras]

holy sh**t Sichel is imploding

Hilarious.

He added a new spokesperson, Clemente Perez, famous for his phrase "cabros, esto no prendió" (boys, this didn't catch on) in relation to the evasion protest at the metro, 2 days before the social uprising.

As I have said, the current state of Sichel campaign is just sad. He and especially his new campaign manager, Juan José Santa Cruz, have been insanely aggressive, almost shouting to everyone who listens that all of this is a huge conspiracy against Sichel from the DC and with a truly hysterical messaging of being the most antipolitics and populist guy around while acussing everyone else of being irresponsible populists and the left of being undemocratic thugs.

[kaoras]

Two new polls came out today with vastly different pictures.

Activa (The one Alfred posted, here I'm posting the Likely voter numbers and second round)

Activa-Pulso Ciudadano LV:

Boric: 31.3
Kast: 20.2
Provoste: 16.5
Sichel 8.9
Parisi: 6.9
Ominami: 3.7
Artes 2.4

Secound Round LV:

Boric 52.6 - Kast 30.2 | Boric 38.6 - Provoste 30.8 | Boric 49.4- Sichel 28.5

CADEM

Kast 21
Boric 20
Provoste 12
Sichel 7
Parisi 6
Ominami 4
Artes 3

Second Round:

Boric 43- Kast 35 | Boric 39- Provoste 35 | Boric 41- Sichel 35

The one thing they have in common is the Sichel meltdown. But while in the Activa poll the beneficiary of (this week) Sichel collapse is almost exclusively Provoste, in Cadem the sole beneficiary is Kast. Cadem is the first poll to show Kast in the first place.

I find Cadem numbers hard to believe, starting for everyone getting exactly the same percentage against Boric in the runoff.

Activa also has 67% of support for Piñera Impeachment.

[Boobs]

A Boric-Provoste runoff would be very fun. Plus it's possible that if anyone stands to benefit from systemic poll undersampling it'd be sra Yasna?

[kaoras]

A Boric-Provoste runoff would be very fun. Plus it's possible that if anyone stands to benefit from systemic poll undersampling it'd be sra Yasna?

In theory yes, because her support comes mainly from under polled groups such as the elderly and the poor. But for example, in 2017 the polls sub estimated the FA (and Kast to a much lesser extent), and the sparse polling for the May elections also saw some FA underpolling.

But a Boric-Provoste map would probably be the most interesting-looking map out there.

[H. Ross Peron]

Sichel is the Chilean Armin Laschet.

[Lumine]

Sichel is the Chilean Armin Laschet.

Pretty apt comparison, including the fact that almost all of the collapse is self-inflicted.

Gaffes, an inability to plan ahead of possible controversies, a campaign team devoid of talent and/or experience in spite of having massive resources, a never ending display of arrogance in public and in private (to the point of alienating the coalition parties), and so on. As a matter of fact, the campaign has been so incompetent that the parties and/or key spokespersons have learned about stuff from the TV first and not from the candidate/campaign leadership.

Whether he salvages something or not (pretty unlikely given the track record and the sad state of the campaign team), Sichel is going to become the Chilean textbook case of screwing up your own campaign.

All that really remains to be seen - barring the sort of miracle I can't see Sichel pulling off - is whether the parliamentary campaign can be salvaged, or whether JAK is going to be able to push his party candidates ahead like Beatriz Sanchez did for the FA in 2017. If we get the latter, it's going to be a massacre.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If I were Kast I would be all aboard the impeachment. Sichel of course will never be.

[Biden 2024]

Still expecting a Jadue vs. Lavin runoff.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Still expecting a Jadue vs. Lavin runoff.

That’s silly. Why would that happen? It’ll obviously be Jiles.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Aaaaaand the government is blaming Boric and Provoste for violence and looting that occurred on the second anniversary of the beginning of the estallido social a few days ago, because they dared refer to people held for years on accusations of destroying the Santiago Metro before being acquitted as “political prisoners”.

[kaoras]

Aaaaaand the government is blaming Boric and Provoste for violence and looting that occurred on the second anniversary of the beginning of the estallido social a few days ago, because they dared refer to people held for years on accusations of destroying the Santiago Metro before being acquitted as “political prisoners”.

I didn't want to comment on that because honestly, I'm just done and tired with this government and the right in general. And the worst part is, that they probably believe it. The right truly thinks that the estallido social was orchestrated by the FA and the PC and I'm sure they believe that Boric and Provoste control the looters or that their law for pardoning those with years of preventive presión time without trial truly is what motivates the violence, as if violence didn't exist before that. And there's plenty of people that buy that.

That's why the right is so dangerous, they are still totally in denial about the social tensions in this country and if they keep governing Chile is going to tear itself apart. As Atria said, this government has blamed even Kpop before assuming any kind of responsability

[H. Ross Peron]

That's why the right is so dangerous, they are still totally in denial about the social tensions in this country and if they keep governing Chile is going to tear itself apart. As Atria said, this government has blamed even Kpop before assuming any kind of responsability

This sounds hilarious.

[kaoras]

That's why the right is so dangerous, they are still totally in denial about the social tensions in this country and if they keep governing Chile is going to tear itself apart. As Atria said, this government has blamed even Kpop before assuming any kind of responsability

This sounds hilarious.

There you go:

https://www.adnradio.cl/nacional/2019/12/22/informe-del-ministerio-del-interior-apunta-a-influencia-del-kpop-en-el-estallido-social-3994326.html

This is the level of incompetency we have had to deal daily since Piñera assumed office.

[Lord Halifax]

That's why the right is so dangerous, they are still totally in denial about the social tensions in this country and if they keep governing Chile is going to tear itself apart. As Atria said, this government has blamed even Kpop before assuming any kind of responsability

This sounds hilarious.

Nah, absurd but mostly depressing.

[kaoras]

La Franja Electoral is here: https://youtu.be/s8yanUfQ6p4

I think the best was Parisi but is not like any of them was outstanding. Provoste made a weird homage to the victims of the COVID pandemic.

In campaign news, Boric had a very bad week due to a series of gaffes regarding the specific numbers of his economic proposals.