Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

U de Chile debate this Monday, with all candidates except Kast (who is getting more support from Chile Podemos Más officials every day) and Parisi.

[PSOL]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

[Octowakandi]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I feel like there's no way this can stand. He's far right, way past the Overton window in Chile. This has to come from lack of information about him among regular voters.

[Red Velvet]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I think Kast is actually the favorite. He keeps a nonstop growing trend, who knows how much he can reach?

Chile unfortunately is succumbing to the more populist and “anti-establishment” option after the protests. But oh well, at least the new leftist constitution change will be worth it.

[Red Velvet]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I feel like there's no way this can stand. He's far right, way past the Overton window in Chile. This has to come from lack of information about him among regular voters.

People overestimate too much how average voters are “ideological”. Most normal people just don’t care about this right, left, center thing.

[Octowakandi]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I think Kast is actually the favorite. He keeps a nonstop growing trend, who knows how much he can reach?

Chile unfortunately is succumbing to the more populist and “anti-establishment” option after the protests. But oh well, at least the new leftist constitution change will be worth it.

So did that leftist energy just end once the constitution was created? Kast just seems so much the opposite of where the political energy was with the right just completely discredited.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, the Kast surge was fun while it lasted (and while it was mostly to embarrass Sichel) but now I'm starting to fear Chile might actually end up with a far-right president. I admit it would be kind of hilarious to go along with a turbo-left constituent assembly, but it's not the kind of fun I'd wish on any county.

[kaoras]

You people shouldn't freak out about the famously accurate Chilean Polls. If their track record doesn't convince you, you can google translate these articles which explain all their methodological problems and why they always suck:

https://terceradosis.cl/2021/10/20/el-lugar-donde-las-encuestas-pierden-la-seriedad/
https://terceradosis.cl/2021/10/21/marta-lagos-directora-de-mori-cerc-las-encuestas-en-chile-se-hacen-para-decir-lo-que-la-elite-quiere/

However, in all their awfulness we still shouldn't ignore them. Kast surge is continuing and he is probably in first place for the first round. The second thing is basically all Boric and Provoste fault because they still refuse to attack him in any meaningful way or do negative campaigns while all the other candidates trash them on their franjas.

In any case, leftists always make up their minds at the last minute (just check 2017 polls or whatever polling there was for municipal election), so I'm still not really worried. I do think that if things continue like this the right will get more than 1/3 of the chamber of deputies which will be very dissapointing.

[buritobr]

If Kast wins, we could make a parallel to France 1789 and 1848. People went to the streets, they were enthuasiastic, there was a revolution, a new constitution, but then... the hangover came and a Bonaparte rose to the power.
But maybe, comparing them to Kast would be offensive to the Bonapartes.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I feel like there's no way this can stand. He's far right, way past the Overton window in Chile. This has to come from lack of information about him among regular voters.

Kast is less extreme than Boric.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I think Kast is actually the favorite. He keeps a nonstop growing trend, who knows how much he can reach?

Chile unfortunately is succumbing to the more populist and “anti-establishment” option after the protests. But oh well, at least the new leftist constitution change will be worth it.

Kast isn't the one who wants to destroy the Chilean economic system. In a Kast vs Boric runoff Kast is closer to the status quo than Boric.

[Estrella]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I think Kast is actually the favorite. He keeps a nonstop growing trend, who knows how much he can reach?

Chile unfortunately is succumbing to the more populist and “anti-establishment” option after the protests. But oh well, at least the new leftist constitution change will be worth it.

Kast isn't the one who wants to destroy the Chilean economic system. In a Kast vs Boric runoff Kast is closer to the status quo than Boric.

If status quo means 4chan-esque wet dreams about putting leftists (and women, gay people, irreligious people, or anyone who doesn't like working >45 hours a week only to barely scrape by) in their place, except masquerading as a serious political platform, all bound together by some cursed bastard child of Hayek and the Bible, you're certainly correct.

[kaoras]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I think Kast is actually the favorite. He keeps a nonstop growing trend, who knows how much he can reach?

Chile unfortunately is succumbing to the more populist and “anti-establishment” option after the protests. But oh well, at least the new leftist constitution change will be worth it.

Kast isn't the one who wants to destroy the Chilean economic system. In a Kast vs Boric runoff Kast is closer to the status quo than Boric.

Except he does? All his tax cuts would destroy the Chilean State and economy Kansas Style*. You are right that he is more status quo than Boric though, that's why he will lose.

*_{But again, is not like you would know that unless you read all of his program because Boric and Provoste are idiots and the press is all hostage of the economic elite}

[kaoras]

Boric presented his updated platform, a delay which was heavily criticized. But this is being overshadowed by gaffes of his aides, like RD secretary saying they would "unstabilize the country to do deep reforms".

His new platform shed some unpopular things of his primary platform (like allowing undocumented immigrants to apply for social housing) but kept his pension reform (transitioning to a full distribution system) that wil surely come back to haunt him.

[kaoras]

Boric has COVID 19. This basically freezes the presidential race since everyone is a close contact. (save Parisi, lol, he supposedly comes to Chile this weekend).

This also puts Piñera impeachment in jeopardy since some FA deputies, and Boric himself will have to quarantine. It has to be voted on Monday.

Also, there has been a lot of polls lately (some of them of dubious origins and quality), but I will wait until the last legal days to do a mega-post with them.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boric has COVID 19. This basically freezes the presidential race since everyone is a close contact. (save Parisi, lol, he supposedly comes to Chile this weekend).

This also puts Piñera impeachment in jeopardy since some FA deputies, and Boric himself will have to quarantine. It has to be voted on Monday.

Also, there has been a lot of polls lately (some of them of dubious origins and quality), but I will wait until the last legal days to do a mega-post with them.

Is there no provision for remote debate or voting? Seems like a massive oversight - what did they do last year?

[kaoras]

Boric has COVID 19. This basically freezes the presidential race since everyone is a close contact. (save Parisi, lol, he supposedly comes to Chile this weekend).

This also puts Piñera impeachment in jeopardy since some FA deputies, and Boric himself will have to quarantine. It has to be voted on Monday.

Also, there has been a lot of polls lately (some of them of dubious origins and quality), but I will wait until the last legal days to do a mega-post with them.

Is there no provision for remote debate or voting? Seems like a massive oversight - what did they do last year?

There was but only under state of emergency, which ended a few months ago

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boric has COVID 19. This basically freezes the presidential race since everyone is a close contact. (save Parisi, lol, he supposedly comes to Chile this weekend).

This also puts Piñera impeachment in jeopardy since some FA deputies, and Boric himself will have to quarantine. It has to be voted on Monday.

Also, there has been a lot of polls lately (some of them of dubious origins and quality), but I will wait until the last legal days to do a mega-post with them.

Is there no provision for remote debate or voting? Seems like a massive oversight - what did they do last year?

There was but only under state of emergency, which ended a few months ago

That’s disappointing. Even the US has proxy votes.

[Red Velvet]

If Kast wins, we could make a parallel to France 1789 and 1848. People went to the streets, they were enthuasiastic, there was a revolution, a new constitution, but then... the hangover came and a Bonaparte rose to the power.
But maybe, comparing them to Kast would be offensive to the Bonapartes.

Actually I think the more appropriate comparison is Brazil 2018. There is even the same gender divide within the vote, with the men favoring the far-right candidate while there’s more opposition against them between women.

[Octowakandi]

Seems like if Kast wins, the new constitution may not get through or at least you'd have a very powerful enemy that would campaign against it since the constitution would probably strip him of a lot of powers.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Boric has COVID 19. This basically freezes the presidential race since everyone is a close contact. (save Parisi, lol, he supposedly comes to Chile this weekend).

This also puts Piñera impeachment in jeopardy since some FA deputies, and Boric himself will have to quarantine. It has to be voted on Monday.

Also, there has been a lot of polls lately (some of them of dubious origins and quality), but I will wait until the last legal days to do a mega-post with them.

Is there no provision for remote debate or voting? Seems like a massive oversight - what did they do last year?

There was but only under state of emergency, which ended a few months ago

That’s disappointing. Even the US has proxy votes.

The US is one of the few countries who use voting by mail to such an extent, and any degree of VBM or early voting are a completely foreign concept in Latin America

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Every latin american election always somehow ends up as a contest between far-right and far-left.

Nope, Argentina has never had a far-left of far-right candidate getting the first or second place, other than Perón's third term and afaik that he was deep into conspiracies, murder plots, and that his closest ally was the leader of a far right paramilitary group were all hidden from most people before the election

And then there's Uruguay, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election, Ecuador's leaders may've mostly been corrupt sh*theads but they weren't anywhere near the far left or far right other than for purely opportunistic reasons

Enjoy while you can.

And you say it yourselves, Brazil before Bolsonaro, Chile until this election. In Mexico, US media called AMLO a communist as well, and his opponent might be quite far-right as well during the next election.

Oh, well if the US media called him a communist during his election he must be!

Boric has COVID 19. This basically freezes the presidential race since everyone is a close contact. (save Parisi, lol, he supposedly comes to Chile this weekend).

This also puts Piñera impeachment in jeopardy since some FA deputies, and Boric himself will have to quarantine. It has to be voted on Monday.

Also, there has been a lot of polls lately (some of them of dubious origins and quality), but I will wait until the last legal days to do a mega-post with them.

Is there no provision for remote debate or voting? Seems like a massive oversight - what did they do last year?

There was but only under state of emergency, which ended a few months ago

That’s disappointing. Even the US has proxy votes.

The US is one of the few countries who use voting by mail to such an extent, and any degree of VBM or early voting are a completely foreign concept in Latin America

I meant in Congress, where one member will stand up and say “Representative Smith has asked me to communicate that she is voting nay on the bill.” But yes, sometimes despite all the terrible electoral machinations we don’t realize how good we have it.