Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Apruebo Dignidad confirmed to be going with two separate lists in November, with the PH and Partido Igualdad splitting off (and maybe even supporting Cuevas?). I haven’t yet seen any word on what the PC will do - maybe it’ll end up being 1+ lists.

Well, PH was never part of Apruebo Dignidad, they got excluded at the last minute because of a sexual abuse scandal with one of their deputies, and only PI was included. What is being split is actually Chile Digno which is the mini coalition PC has inside Apruebo Dignidad, that included PI, FREVS, and many small movements.

Also, La Lista del Pueblo is having a lot of drama regarding Cuevas candidacy. I can't be bothered to explain it but it includes controversial assemblies, boycotts, hacking and much more. Apparently, they want to do a primary before selecting him (against who, how?) Stay tuned

LMAO how are they gonna do a primary in less than two weeks?

This just in: By signatures at Servel. Apparently the one who gets more signatures wins. (Again, who participates in this? What happens if none ends up clearing the threshold, what Cuevas have to say about this?)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apruebo Dignidad confirmed to be going with two separate lists in November, with the PH and Partido Igualdad splitting off (and maybe even supporting Cuevas?). I haven’t yet seen any word on what the PC will do - maybe it’ll end up being 1+ lists.

Well, PH was never part of Apruebo Dignidad, they got excluded at the last minute because of a sexual abuse scandal with one of their deputies, and only PI was included. What is being split is actually Chile Digno which is the mini coalition PC has inside Apruebo Dignidad, that included PI, FREVS, and many small movements.

Also, La Lista del Pueblo is having a lot of drama regarding Cuevas candidacy. I can't be bothered to explain it but it includes controversial assemblies, boycotts, hacking and much more. Apparently, they want to do a primary before selecting him (against who, how?) Stay tuned

LMAO how are they gonna do a primary in less than two weeks?

This just in: By signatures at Servel. Apparently the one who gets more signatures wins. (Again, who participates in this? What happens if none ends up clearing the threshold, what Cuevas have to say about this?)

Lmaoooooo what a joke. I feel bad laughing at them too much tbh because I’m sure this must suck for the people who thought they’d be Different(TM).

[Lumine]

The Lista del Pueblo drama continues, as they now have both Diego Ancalao (previously cited as a possible candidates) and one Ingrid Conejeros gathering signatures as part of the "primary". This while Cuevas, despite announcing and confirming his candidacy as an independent, has not told the LdP whether he'll accept to compete against both of them, or, as Kaoras noted, what the devil happens if they don't reach the threshold in two weeks.

Even funnier, the newest Lorenzini-Parisi pyramid scheme known as "Partido de la Gente" (which having just delivered over 50,000 signatures is, potentially to be taken somewhat seriously as a splinter) faces an internal crisis as Parisi, who intends to be the party nominee, now sees his partner Lorenzini gathering signatures to run as an independent (which is legally dubious). Barring Lorenzini being disqualified again or some sort of internal primary - why on earth would they be doing this so late in the game? -, we could very well see both of them running at the same time.

[Lumine]

Now the Lista del Pueblo confirms the signatures primary will be between Ancalao, Conejeros and another activist, Maria Soledad Mella. Cuevas is left out, but he's still running as an independent. On the Partido de la Gente situation, Lorenzini now says he'd compete against Parisi in a primary (how? they only have 11 days left!).

Finally, Education Minister Raúl Figueroa survives impeachment in the Chamber of Deputies. There were a few defections from the opposition, but the deciding factor seems to have been a bunch of opposition congressmen being absent.

[kaoras]

Parliamentary News:

PC and FA are close to an agreement for a common list. So far the deal would be 56%-44% split FA-Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-AH). The chaos of La Lista del Pueblo appears to have played a key role in the communist decision.

Partido Igualdad (PI) and Partido Humanista (PH) will run a joint list called "Fuerza de los Pueblos" (Peoples' Force). This is basically a replica of their coalition for the municipal election called Dignidad Ahora that got 5,06% of the vote in the councilors election.

Partido Ecologista Verde (PEV) is going to run alone.

Partido de la Gente (PDG) will not do alliances with any other party.

[Lumine]

On the Partido de la Gente situation, Lorenzini now says he'd compete against Parisi in a primary (how? they only have 11 days left!).

Small update, Lorenzini now backtracks, he's running as an independent period. We're headed for a clown car in the first round.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

On the Partido de la Gente situation, Lorenzini now says he'd compete against Parisi in a primary (how? they only have 11 days left!).

Small update, Lorenzini now backtracks, he's running as an independent period. We're headed for a clown car in the first round.

Lmao, how do they decide who makes it into the debates? Do the networks have their own rules like in the US or does Servel do it or what?

[Lumine]

On the Partido de la Gente situation, Lorenzini now says he'd compete against Parisi in a primary (how? they only have 11 days left!).

Small update, Lorenzini now backtracks, he's running as an independent period. We're headed for a clown car in the first round.

Lmao, how do they decide who makes it into the debates? Do the networks have their own rules like in the US or does Servel do it or what?

ANATEL (the association for tv channels) invited all presidential candidates in 2017, so we had an eight person debate that time. Not sure if they'll be able to repeat that if we get more than, say, 10 first round candidates, but we won't know the exact size of the field until the last moment.

[kaoras]

Narvaez is crushing it in the second debate of UC. Absolutely based answer about forest companies in conflict with mapuche communities: EXPROPIESE _{if necessary after a dialogue}

[kaoras]

Narvaez is crushing it in the second debate of UC. Absolutely based answer about forest companies in conflict with mapuche communities: EXPROPIESE _{if necessary after a dialogue}

The debate had a rating of 18,2, lower than Chile Vamos (29) and Apruebo Dignidad (25), though those had one more channel and were on weekdays.

While I wouldn't say that this was a game-changer, the good performance of Narvaez should give a significant morale boost to the PS machine.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Cadem poll has Boric edging ahead of Sichel, Pulso Ciudadano has a massive Boric drop/Sichel surge and Kast around 10%. Pulso also has confidence in the constitutional convention at 30-46, so that seems…off the top of my head like a wild shift even considering the right wing campaign against the convention.

[Lumine]

Cadem poll has Boric edging ahead of Sichel, Pulso Ciudadano has a massive Boric drop/Sichel surge and Kast around 10%. Pulso also has confidence in the constitutional convention at 30-46, so that seems…off the top of my head like a wild shift even considering the right wing campaign against the convention.

Oddly enough, it's the Cadem result that feels more "accurate" this time. I don't quite get how Pulso Ciudadano, while still showing lower government approvals than Cadem, nonetheless produces both a very optimistic scenario for the right wing in the first round, plus such a significant support gap for the convention.

There are a number of factors that could explain why the Convention might be dropping slightly in approvals (delays, voting to increase appropriations, a few PR missteps), but that particular result just seems difficult to believe.

Likewise, there are reasons to argue the right is in a far better position than a month ago (pandemic numbers improving and the resulting limited rise in government approvals, the decision to maintain current subsidies, the uncertainty surrounding Unidad Constituyente and so on), but not to that degree.

But even if one believes Pulso Ciudadano shows some plausible trends (lower convention approvals, improved presidential odds for the right), I have to admit the presented numbers feel implausible right now.

Narvaez is crushing it in the second debate of UC. Absolutely based answer about forest companies in conflict with mapuche communities: EXPROPIESE _{if necessary after a dialogue}

The debate had a rating of 18,2, lower than Chile Vamos (29) and Apruebo Dignidad (25), though those had one more channel and were on weekdays.

While I wouldn't say that this was a game-changer, the good performance of Narvaez should give a significant morale boost to the PS machine.

Better late than never for Narvaez, I suppose, she does seem to have finally found a tone in which to gain visibility. Personally, I would contend the collective rhetorical turn towards the left in UC may not be as useful as they think it will be when they get to the first round - seeing as they seem determined to compete with Boric -, but it could work.

Would certainly be fun to watch if Provoste actually loses the primary and we get a repeat of a coalition falling for the "this candidate polls better" trap. The reaction from the DC alone would be hilarious to witness.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yeah I considered not bringing the Pulso poll up just because the results are *so* out of line, but I agree that the trends aren’t nothing.

[kaoras]

Regarding Pulso Ciudadano/Activa:

Good ol' Activa. In their next poll at the end of the month, Lavin will crash 10 points, and then will go up again. They must have like 2 parallel panels

This is just their normal effect on steroids. They are just not a good pollster. There are some consistent trends across different pollster though:

-Boric and Provoste are losing support to undecided. Rightists candidates have not improved significantly

-The Convention approval is significantly down. Because people get impatient and see them worried about themselves and not "doing their job" quick enough.

[kaoras]

Better late than never for Narvaez, I suppose, she does seem to have finally found a tone in which to gain visibility. Personally, I would contend the collective rhetorical turn towards the left in UC may not be as useful as they think it will be when they get to the first round - seeing as they seem determined to compete with Boric -, but it could work.

Would certainly be fun to watch if Provoste actually loses the primary and we get a repeat of a coalition falling for the "this candidate polls better" trap. The reaction from the DC alone would be hilarious to witness.

I wouldn't say is a "turn". Is just the way Narvaez and Provoste are and have always been. With Provoste is particularly jarring because a while ago when pundits were desperate to stop Jadue and Jiles,they projected things they wanted to see on Provoste, but she could easily be on PS and nobody would bat an eye.

I have no idea what will happen in the primary. I'm inclined to believe that it will not be a Provoste lanslide but other than that is very hard to tell. Narvaez has a much better ground game though. It seems that Provoste quite literally didn't make up her mind until the last minute because there were 0 preparation for her candidacy.

[kaoras]

Some Updates:

Lista del Pueblo presidential candidate will be Diego Ancalao. A grand total of 3.572 people participated in the signatures thing. Ancalao was collecting signatures since before but is still 4000 short. He has until monday.

Anti vaxxer and anti mask, Cristian Contreras, or Dr. File is in for Centro Unido (CU). His party will have a joint parliamentary list with the RN-splinter Partido Nacional Ciudadano (PNC) and the ultra pinochetists Fuerza Nacional (FN) which are basically the ones that are too extreme for Republicanos.

Tiny evangelical party Nuevo Tiempo (NT) will also have a parliamentary list in the deputies election.

The Constituional Court restored political rights for Marco Enriquez Ominami and he apparently will do yet another presidential campaign. In Unidad Constituyente is criticizing him sharply and froze talks with PRO for the parliamentary lists (which is probably a good thing for them considering that PRO has become a trash collector service for disgraced candidates)

The right has a new name: Chile Podemos +. Ok, sure, whatever. Let the jokes with Juntos Podemos / Podemos Spain / Maduro slogan beggin. Worth noticing that with all these small right-wing parties running, for the first time since 1997 they don't have a monopoly over the rightist electoral space.

[Estrella]

Talking about small right-wing parties, what sorts of people voted for Frafra in 1989, José Piñera in 1993 and Parisi in 2013? I know that they were basically right-leaning populists (though not sure about Piñera), but I mean demographically.

[kaoras]

Talking about small right-wing parties, what sorts of people voted for Frafra in 1989, José Piñera in 1993 and Parisi in 2013? I know that they were basically right-leaning populists (though not sure about Piñera), but I mean demographically.

Those 3 actually had very different bases of support!

José Piñera is the easist. He wasn't a populist, he was more orthodox than the right itself and did well in the extremely rich areas. He won 23% in Vitacura, 19% in Las Condes and 15% in Lo Barnechea. He also did well among the military in the Antarctica winning 20% in Cabo de Hornos.

Errazuriz in 1989 did better in rural zones in southern Chile. His best result was in traditionally right wing Araucanía with 24% where he won 2 comunas: Melipeuco and Theodoro Schmidt. His strength wasn't limited to rural areas. He ran even with Buchi in most of the cities of southern Chile. He also did well in the north in Antofagasta, Arica and Tarapacá, but not reaching the heights of the South.

Parisi in 2013 was actually stronger than Errazuriz in the north (around 20% in Arica, Tarapacá and Antofagasta) but had no particular strength in the south (He got 7% in Melipeuco and Theodoro Schmidt for example).

Parisi and Errazuriz have 2 things in common. First of all, they had strength in the Norte Grande (the regions I keep mentioning) but limited success in the Norte Chico (Atacama and Coquimbo). Historically all of northern Chile has been THE left win stronghold thanks to the mining tradicions that saw the birth of the worker's movement and the left itself. Since the return of democracy, the left has had a huge underlying problem with the north, not because the mines are gone, but because the miners are now absurdly rich. To give you an idea, right now the unions of CODELCO are threatening strike after rejecting a proposal of 31 thousand dollars in additional benefits per worker. No tradition can withstand that amount of money long term. Tarapacá shift happened under the dictatorship and now is one of the most right-wing areas of the countries (likely helped by Pinochet policies like a free tax area for commerce in Iquique). Antofagasta was clearly showings signs of malaise by 2013 and the bottom fell for the left in 2017 in all the north, even in the Norte Chico that had been more stubbornly left wing. Now, the plebiscite and the elections in May are showing that 2017 might have been a fluke, but we will have to see in November.

Now, going back to Errazuriz and Parisi, the Norte Grande is very supportive of independents and outsiders, likely helped by those rich miners who can't bring themselves to support the right. That is not the whole story though, because for example Arica doesn't have major mining industry but still behaved similar until 2017 and is hard to explain why they were both weaker in Atacama. Honestly, this whole thing with the north fascinates me and I wish there was more research.

Finally, the second thing that FraFra and Parisi have in common is that they were both weak in Santiago, specially in the traditionally rich comunas of Las Condes, Vitacura, and so on. Soft-right populism seems repulsive for cuicos.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

First UC votes are in, Provoste winning handily but no real data on turnout (although anecdotal reports say it’s anemic).

[Mike88]

First UC votes are in, Provoste winning handily but no real data on turnout (although anecdotal reports say it’s anemic).

She's basically winning everywhere, it seems.

[Boobs]

SRA YASNA PROVOSTE coming in with approx. 54%, Narvaez 31% & Maldonado 15% in the preliminary count. Don’t know how this compares with expectations but maybe someone can tell us.

Real question is if Provoste will be able to peel enough from Boric to make it into the second round. Doubtful but probably an easier lift than dislodging sickle.

[kaoras]

SRA YASNA PROVOSTE coming in with approx. 54%, Narvaez 31% & Maldonado 15% in the preliminary count. Don’t know how this compares with expectations but maybe someone can tell us.

Real question is if Provoste will be able to peel enough from Boric to make it into the second round. Doubtful but probably an easier lift than dislodging sickle.

Is more or less in line with the initial expectations.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

La Tercera estimates 150,000 voters turned out. Lmao.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also of course understandable but still very funny to watch Unidad Constituyente blame MEO for splitting the left vote when they’re doing the same thing to Boric and Apruebo Dignidad.

[Bilardista]

Also of course understandable but still very funny to watch Unidad Constituyente blame MEO for splitting the left vote when they’re doing the same thing to Boric and Apruebo Dignidad.

"Fourth time's the charm" - Marco Enriquez-Ominami, apparently.

Though seriously, how much damage can he do to either UC or AP, he's gotten less popular with every election, at the rate he's going he'd get what, 2-3%?