Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Unidad Constituyente finally decided to do in-person primaries on August 21st. Provoste (DC) will face Narvaez (PS) and Maldonado (PR). They could be joined by Marco Enriquez Ominami (if the courts allow it, he is under investigation for illegal financing) or Alejandro Guillier for PRO.

Also, the two big chilean newspapers, El Mercurio and La Tercera (both right wing), after singing the praises for Provoste for months both today ran stories and opinion pieces about how her candidacy is going to struggle with Sichel and Boric in the picture, that she should have declared months ago etc etc. The factical powers appear to have decided that Provoste has outlived his usefulness now that Sichel is a thing. 

[kaoras]

Also, everyone's favorite poll, CADEM, with the first post primaries presidential poll.

Boric: 30
Sichel: 25
Provoste: 12
Kast: 8
Sharp: 4
Narvaez: 3
Maldonado: 1

For second round, Boric 46-Sichel 42 | Boric 46-Provoste 34 | Sichel 45- Provoste 35

For Unidad Constituyente Primary they have

Provoste 50 (59 among leftists)
Narvaez 12 (15)
Maldonado 7 (5)

Only 21% say they would not vote. Honestly, UC numbers are ridiculous to the point of unbelievability. (Provoste going up with leftists, everyone saying they will vote...)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PRO will not be participating in the UC primary. RIP MEO.

[Lumine]

Indeed, so that ends chances of a rematch for Ominami or Guillier.

Jorge Sharp promises an independent candidate will declare next week (purporting to represent left-wing independents and possibly the Lista del Pueblo). Absolutely no idea who it will be.

Also a bunch of independents are allegedly trying to get signatures (including a few nutcases), so it could be quite a larger field than expected.

Things more or less stand like this (?), from left to right:

Unión Patriotica:
Eduardo Artés (UPA) (not sure if he needs signatures)

Lista del Pueblo (?)+ Independents:
TBA

Apruebo Dignidad:
Gabriel Boric (CS)

Unidad Constituyente:
Paula Narváez (PS)
Carlos Maldonado (PRSD)
Yasna Provoste (DC)

Centro Unido:
Cristián Contreras (CU) (looking for signatures)

Partido de la Gente:
Franco Parisi (PDG) or Gino Lorenzini (PDG) (SERVEL still needs to validate the party signatures?)

Chile Vamos:
Sebastián Sichel (IND)

Partido Republicano:
José Antonio Kast (PR)

Various Independents:
Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (centrist, former candidate in 2013)
Marcela Aranda (right wing social conservative activist)
Diego Ancalao (left wing independent, used to run the Izquierda Ciudadana during Bachelet II)
Carola Canelo (left wing independent, tried to get signatures in 2017)
Hermógenez Pérez de Arce (former deputy in 73', pro-Pinochet hardliner)
Plus as many as 15 other unknowns

Not ruling out other small parties running someone (like the Humanists or Ecologists) as well. Last time it was nine candidates, we could hit that again depending on many independents get the signatures.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I’ve seen Ancalao’s name bandied about as another potential non-Sharp candidate for the Lista del Pueblo (IIRC Sharp said it wouldn’t be him). Is there any truth to that or is it just internet rumors?

(I think the LdP running a candidate like this is somewhat debasing the ideals it professes to stand for, but what do I know.)

[kaoras]

I’ve seen Ancalao’s name bandied about as another potential non-Sharp candidate for the Lista del Pueblo (IIRC Sharp said it wouldn’t be him). Is there any truth to that or is it just internet rumors?

(I think the LdP running a candidate like this is somewhat debasing the ideals it professes to stand for, but what do I know.)

It has been tossed around without much substance. I really doubt they would choose him. I would bet on a nobody tbh.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The game’s afoot for the expanded vice presidency of the Constitutional Convention (two indigenous vice presidents and five others, in addition to Jaime Bassa). Looks likely that the non-indigenous VPs will be elected proportionally, over the objections of the far left, which will allow the right to earn a seat. The FA will not be presenting a candidate as they already have Jaime Bassa

[kaoras]

The game’s afoot for the expanded vice presidency of the Constitutional Convention (two indigenous vice presidents and five others, in addition to Jaime Bassa). Looks likely that the non-indigenous VPs will be elected proportionally, over the objections of the far left, which will allow the right to earn a seat. The FA will not be presenting a candidate as they already have Jaime Bassa

Many on the right also didn't want to have a vicepresidency because... That way they can cry more about how sidelined they are? I don't know

[Lumine]

I’ve seen Ancalao’s name bandied about as another potential non-Sharp candidate for the Lista del Pueblo (IIRC Sharp said it wouldn’t be him). Is there any truth to that or is it just internet rumors?

(I think the LdP running a candidate like this is somewhat debasing the ideals it professes to stand for, but what do I know.)

It has been tossed around without much substance. I really doubt they would choose him. I would bet on a nobody tbh.

It would be extremely odd, considering that Ancalao has run a political party before and LdP seems to be going through their "purist" phase regarding people with political experience (after all, they're still playing the game of trying to be a party without calling themselves such). If they said no to Sharp (who has actual visibility and popularity to sustain a moderately successful effort), I can't imagine why they'd say yes to Ancalao.

They do seem set on a candidate which covers some specific criteria (from the regions, female and so on) so I concur, probably someone completely unknown.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

AD still trying to tamp down tensions between the PC and FA, currently over the FA not working (hard enough) to get a PC candidate nominated to one of the convention vice presidencies, as well as other votes when they weren’t fully aligned with the PC. I really don’t like the mixing of outside political debates into the work of the convention, but such is life.

Also Boric was briefly attacked during a visit to the prison unit where several prisoners of the revolt were held, and the prisoners refused to meet with him due to his prior support of the anti-barricades law.

[kaoras]

AD still trying to tamp down tensions between the PC and FA, currently over the FA not working (hard enough) to get a PC candidate nominated to one of the convention vice presidencies, as well as other votes when they weren’t fully aligned with the PC. I really don’t like the mixing of outside political debates into the work of the convention, but such is life.

Also Boric was briefly attacked during a visit to the prison unit where several prisoners of the revolt were held, and the prisoners refused to meet with him due to his prior support of the anti-barricades law.

Jadue even floated around the possibility of giving freedom of action in the presidential election of FA doesn't get in line (they have been working mainly with PS and INN). PC president Guillermo Tellier quickly shut him down but apparently there is a serious possibility of AD going in 2 lists for the parliamentary elections.

There are several dynamics at play here: On one hand, Jadue and Tellier are in different wings of the party, Tellier is from the pragmatic sector that has controlled the party since forever while Jadue is more of a hardliner. Jadue candidacy has given more power to the hardliners and party leadership have acted accordingly since they think this is more beneficial electorally, though Tellier and Jadue are still rivals (not that you ever going to see an all out public conflict since these are the communist we are talking about).

Related to this, PC has been trying to co-opt the Lista del Pueblo by allying with them in the convention and the 2 lists thing is basically a bet on a formal pact with LDP for the parliamentary (because LDP hardliners are never going to be in an alliance with Boric and co but PC hopes that they can accept the communists). I don't know if that's going to work because the purism of the people who controll La lista del Pueblo should not be underestimated (they have had 2 defections so far related to that).

Splitting the vote so much in the parliamentary election is going to be the disaster that didn't happen at the constitutional election. Incumbent power alone should push the right closer to 30% than to the pathetic 20% they got in May. The left better hope that Partido Republicano throws a good 4-5% of the vote to the trash and that whatever Lorenzini and Parisi ends up presenting steals more votes from the right than from them.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

[kaoras]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

I watched some parts. Narváez has more concrete proposal (although she is being mocked by her "Plan Marshall" to recover the economy), Provoste has better oratory and Maldonado is just salty that UC didn't do legal primaries and that they left him waiting the day of the inscription, lol.

[Lumine]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

Tried, but it was supremely boring (the journalists taking so long to make the questions didn't help). Some are joking that Boric won, which, considering the apparently low viewership numbers, seems like a fair assessment of the situation.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

I watched some parts. Narváez has more concrete proposal (although she is being mocked by her "Plan Marshall" to recover the economy), Provoste has better oratory and Maldonado is just salty that UC didn't do legal primaries and that they left him waiting the day of the inscription, lol.

So no change. Love Maldonado and whatever he’s trying to do. A modern-day Pedro Aguirre Cerda, if Aguirre Cerda was a loser nobody.

[kaoras]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

Tried, but it was supremely boring (the journalists taking so long to make the questions didn't help). Some are joking that Boric won, which, considering the apparently low viewership numbers, seems like a fair assessment of the situation.

It wasn't that bad actually in terms of viewership. It got 10 points against 11 for Chile Vamos and 14 for Apruebo Dignidad (the CHV-CNN ones, which were also on just 2 channels).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

Tried, but it was supremely boring (the journalists taking so long to make the questions didn't help). Some are joking that Boric won, which, considering the apparently low viewership numbers, seems like a fair assessment of the situation.

It wasn't that bad actually in terms of viewership. It got 10 points against 11 for Chile Vamos and 14 for Apruebo Dignidad (the CHV-CNN ones, which were also on just 2 channels).

Do you think that bodes anything for participation in the primary, or has that ship already sailed due to the lack of institutional support?

[kaoras]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

Tried, but it was supremely boring (the journalists taking so long to make the questions didn't help). Some are joking that Boric won, which, considering the apparently low viewership numbers, seems like a fair assessment of the situation.

It wasn't that bad actually in terms of viewership. It got 10 points against 11 for Chile Vamos and 14 for Apruebo Dignidad (the CHV-CNN ones, which were also on just 2 channels).

Do you think that bodes anything for participation in the primary, or has that ship already sailed due to the lack of institutional support?

At the end of the day it will be very hard to even come close to the turnout of the legal primaries. Most cities will have at best one polling station, there are no legal propaganda, franja. The debates will help but I think the expected range of 300-500k seems about right.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

And the winner (of the Lista del Pueblo sweepstakes, chosen by 43 votes to 30 in an election where he was the only candidate) is…Cristián Cuevas Zambrano! https://www.latercera.com/politica/noticia/con-43-votos-a-favor-y-30-abstenciones-la-lista-del-pueblo-elige-al-exlider-sindical-cristian-cuevas-como-su-carta-presidencial/BRQ77U3SRJBRXNN2UDFE2GTKJE/

Former union leader and LGBT activist, bounced around between a few parties over the years. Quit a minor role in Bachelet’s government after the carabineros killed a striking miner and quit CS and the FA after the 15N agreement.

[kaoras]

Oh... Yeah, I remember him from the time he was in PC, so is not a total nobody (well, he is for 95% of the population). Surprised to see them pick someone with so much partisan "baggage". Picking him at least assures that the candidacy will not turn out as a dumpster fire. They are probably targeting Jadue voters.

Although, If they weren't going to nominate an indigenous woman as they wanted, why not just pick Sharp?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Oh... Yeah, I remember him from the time he was in PC, so is not a total nobody (well, he is for 95% of the population). Surprised to see them pick someone with so much partisan "baggage". Picking him at least assures that the candidacy will not turn out as a dumpster fire. They are probably targeting Jadue voters.

Although, If they weren't going to nominate an indigenous woman as they wanted, why not just pick Sharp?

Maybe they thought Sharp wanted it too much?

[kaoras]

Kast's Partido Republicando and Partido Conservador Cristiano just announced a joint list for the parliamentary elections. Is going to be called Frente Social Cristiano (Social Christian Front).It appears that they could still reach accords with other minor parties such as PNC.

PCC ran with Partido Nacional Ciudadanos as "Ciudadanos Cristianos" in the constituent elections in districts in southern Chile. On average they got 4,5% where they ran and reached 7,45% in District 21 (Los Angeles-Arauco). That district is their best shot at winning a seat (The republicans also elected councilors there) together with D11 (The ultra-rich part of Santiago).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apruebo Dignidad confirmed to be going with two separate lists in November, with the PH and Partido Igualdad splitting off (and maybe even supporting Cuevas?). I haven’t yet seen any word on what the PC will do - maybe it’ll end up being more like 1+ lists.

[kaoras]

Apruebo Dignidad confirmed to be going with two separate lists in November, with the PH and Partido Igualdad splitting off (and maybe even supporting Cuevas?). I haven’t yet seen any word on what the PC will do - maybe it’ll end up being 1+ lists.

Well, PH was never part of Apruebo Dignidad, they got excluded at the last minute because of a sexual abuse scandal with one of their deputies, and only PI was included. What is being split is actually Chile Digno which is the mini coalition PC has inside Apruebo Dignidad, that included PI, FREVS, and many small movements.

Also, La Lista del Pueblo is having a lot of drama regarding Cuevas candidacy. I can't be bothered to explain it but it includes controversial assemblies, boycotts, hacking and much more. Apparently, they want to do a primary before selecting him (against who, how?) Stay tuned

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apruebo Dignidad confirmed to be going with two separate lists in November, with the PH and Partido Igualdad splitting off (and maybe even supporting Cuevas?). I haven’t yet seen any word on what the PC will do - maybe it’ll end up being 1+ lists.

Well, PH was never part of Apruebo Dignidad, they got excluded at the last minute because of a sexual abuse scandal with one of their deputies, and only PI was included. What is being split is actually Chile Digno which is the mini coalition PC has inside Apruebo Dignidad, that included PI, FREVS, and many small movements.

Also, La Lista del Pueblo is having a lot of drama regarding Cuevas candidacy. I can't be bothered to explain it but it includes controversial assemblies, boycotts, hacking and much more. Apparently, they want to do a primary before selecting him (against who, how?) Stay tuned

LMAO how are they gonna do a primary in less than two weeks?