Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

If it was literally any pollster but CADEM I would be more inclined to believe them that akshually our banned polls were right, but they have been a laughingstock since their foundation and politicians keep dancing around it.

[Mike88]

If it was literally any pollster but CADEM I would be more inclined to believe them that akshually our banned polls were right, but they have been a laughingstock since their foundation and politicians keep dancing around it.

Hmm.. so CADEM is the Chilean version of Rasmussen?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Cadem is silly. I will never understand why they do those stupid polls that include every potential candidate at once instead of running different scenarios like in the US.

[kaoras]

If it was literally any pollster but CADEM I would be more inclined to believe them that akshually our banned polls were right, but they have been a laughingstock since their foundation and politicians keep dancing around it.

Hmm.. so CADEM is the Chilean version of Rasmussen?

The thing with Cadem is that
1) The director is very close to Piñera
2) Coincidentally, they always have the best numbers for Piñera
3) All their polls seem engineered to push an Agenda
4) They are almost never right

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Question y’all. I just read this in La Tercera:

En el Frente Amplio no hay dudas. Si no fuera por el requisito de la edad -un candidato tiene que tener 35 años cumplidos para optar a la Presidencia de la República- el abanderado del conglomerado sería Giorgio Jackson.

That is, the FA would have ran Giorgio Jackson but he was too young. But he’d turn 35 before the next presidential inauguration - is it really the case that you need to be 35 to be a candidate, not just to be president (as in the US)? Seems a bit silly to me, and unfair to Jackson.

[kaoras]

Question y’all. I just read this in La Tercera:

En el Frente Amplio no hay dudas. Si no fuera por el requisito de la edad -un candidato tiene que tener 35 años cumplidos para optar a la Presidencia de la República- el abanderado del conglomerado sería Giorgio Jackson.

That is, the FA would have ran Giorgio Jackson but he was too young. But he’d turn 35 before the next presidential inauguration - is it really the case that you need to be 35 to be a candidate, not just to be president (as in the US)? Seems a bit silly to me, and unfair to Jackson.

Yep, it used to be 40 until 2005 actually. I tolerate Jackson more than Boric actually, who like, this year saw the light and realized the dangers of ideological purism. Honestly, I have never felt more empty after a winning vote.

[kaoras]

Chile Vamos primary map:
Purple: Sichel
Red: Lavín
Green: Desbordes
Briones didn't won any comuna



Sichel victory was fairly wide. Lavin tended to do better on rural zones but still lost almost everywhere, save for the rural zones of the Altiplano in the north and some geographically massive comunas in the far south.

Desbordes did better in border towns and zones with high military presence, winning the sparsely populated comuna of Cisnes in Aysén. Briones did better in the upper class fortress of Santiago, but even there it couldn't break 20%.

[kaoras]

Apruebo Dignidad Map.

Green: Boric
Red: Jadue
Gray: no votes (Colchane)



Jadue main source of strength was old minning zones, hence why he won a lot of rural areas in the north (he came close to winning in Atacama region with 47%, his best result nationwide).



Jadue also won several low-income comunas in North and South Santiago, the most impoverished ones were his "Old left" style was a better fit and where FA has always struggled (In the constituent elections in South Santiago they got beaten by Lista del Pueblo AND Unidad Constituyente). Jadue also won in Recoleta where he is mayor by honestly a fairly anemic 10% margin, 55-45, miles behind the crushing victory Boric got in his home region of Magallanes where he reached 76%

[seb_pard]

Totally disagree with the Boric/Jackson comments. Boric is a much better politician thank Jackson and has shown that he is a winner in politics. He defeated Camila Vallejo at her prime for the Student Federation Presidency in 2011, he was able to being elected as congressman in an election without the support/omission of other coalitions (unlike George), that was really epic.

Despite being a left-wing politician (his party, Convergencia Social is clearly to the left of Revolucion Democratica) he has shown continually that he is able to build bridges with other sectors in order to achieve political goals. He is not (and has never been) a purist (I think that is more a negative view some people on the center left like have about the Broad Front).

For me, Boric is pretty similar to Errejon (it would be great to read the view of Velasco on this). He is a leftist but has the "Vocacion de Mayoria". That is why the Broad Front was created, because we wanted a left-wing coalition that wanted to actually govern. Thank god the Broad Front doesn't have the ego problems Podemos had.

As I mentioned before, I was undecided until the last day but voted for Boric. Unlike Kaoras, I''m very a happy and excited.

[Lumine]

Pamela Jiles is finally out of the race (rejoice!), and Jorge Sharp is starting to make some noise.

Considering a Jiles or Jadue victory seemed quite possible until very recently, it will be a huge relief not to see either in the first round.

[kaoras]

Totally disagree with the Boric/Jackson comments. Boric is a much better politician thank Jackson and has shown that he is a winner in politics. He defeated Camila Vallejo at her prime for the Student Federation Presidency in 2011, he was able to being elected as congressman in an election without the support/omission of other coalitions (unlike George), that was really epic.

Despite being a left-wing politician (his party, Convergencia Social is clearly to the left of Revolucion Democratica) he has shown continually that he is able to build bridges with other sectors in order to achieve political goals. He is not (and has never been) a purist (I think that is more a negative view some people on the center left like have about the Broad Front).

For me, Boric is pretty similar to Errejon (it would be great to read the view of Velasco on this). He is a leftist but has the "Vocacion de Mayoria". That is why the Broad Front was created, because we wanted a left-wing coalition that wanted to actually govern. Thank god the Broad Front doesn't have the ego problems Podemos had.

As I mentioned before, I was undecided until the last day but voted for Boric. Unlike Kaoras, I''m very a happy and excited.

Are you really counting students politics? lol. The right in 2013 was structurally much weaker in Magallanes than in Santiago Centro.

In any case, If Boric has always had a majority vocation, why did he spent all Bachelet government trashing all her reforms because they weren't exactly how he liked it? Why did he endorse Guillier only the day before the second round saying something like "Eh.. they both equally sucks, but I guess poor people would suffer under Piñera so I will vote for Guillier but I really hate him trust me"?

Boric got his reputation as amarillo by hugging Piñera with all his useless national unity accords the first month of his new government (oh, but to Bachelet, Boric wouldn't even give her the time of day). I voted for him because Jadue would be a trainwreck and the right has to be kicked out of power at any cost, but honestly had you made this comment yesterday I would have literally changed my vote to Jadue. But don't try to gaslight me with all this nonsense, I have memory and I remember all of his petulant-entitled rich kid speeches about how Bachelet projects were totally useless because they were not radical enough.

Also, if you want to say that Boric has political skills (which he has), Errejón really is not a good comparison.  

[Biden 2024]

@Kaoras who would you have preferred to have been the candidate of the Left if not Boric or Jadue, if I may ask? (Referring to individuals who didn't end up running as well etc.)

[kaoras]

Pamela Jiles is finally out of the race (rejoice!), and Jorge Sharp is starting to make some noise.

Considering a Jiles or Jadue victory seemed quite possible until very recently, it will be a huge relief not to see either in the first round.

Rumours about Sharp running for La Lista del Pueblo but I think that if they even manage to coordinate something they would run a nobody.

@Kaoras who would you have preferred to have been the candidate of the Left if not Boric or Jadue, if I may ask? (Referring to individuals who didn't end up running as well etc.)

Bachelet

Well, I'm still nominally with Paula Narvaez until she is forced to drop in favour of Provoste but she is honestly a weak candidate, a shame because I liked his platform more than any of the others. All of the once huge UC field sucked and the rest of the left is even more purist (like Sharp and La Lista del Pueblo, though maybe I would still vote for them as a protest vote if they don't get too idiotic). But to be honest, I don't really like any of the current national leftist figures, I gave up long ago about voting for a candidate that I like.

[seb_pard]

Are you really counting students politics? lol. The right in 2013 was structurally much weaker in Magallanes than in Santiago Centro.

Well, in Chile student politics is relatively relevant and we are talking about the year student politics was the most relevant thing in the country (and well, Jackson, Vallejo and Boric came from that year). We was able to defeat one of the most important political figures of the country of the last decade at her prime. She lost against Boric in a year she was chosen person of the year in several magazines/newspapers (like The Guardian).

Well, they may be structurally, but was mainly because there was another movement leaded by Bianchi (he leaned to the right) that was very strong in Magallanes (and had the money). Boric's rivals weren't the New Majority and Chile Vamos, were the New Majority and Karim Bianchi. His victory was totally unexpected.

[seb_pard]

And regarding Errejon, I'm not talking about political skills or anything like that, I'm talking about the approach of building movements that go beyond the classic political left

[kaoras]

Are you really counting students politics? lol. The right in 2013 was structurally much weaker in Magallanes than in Santiago Centro.

Well, in Chile student politics is relatively relevant and we are talking about the year student politics was the most relevant thing in the country (and well, Jackson, Vallejo and Boric came from that year). We was able to defeat one of the most important political figures of the country of the last decade at her prime. She lost against Boric in a year she was chosen person of the year in several magazines/newspapers (like The Guardian).

Well, they may be structurally, but was mainly because there was another movement leaded by Bianchi (he leaned to the right) that was very strong in Magallanes (and had the money). Boric's rivals weren't the New Majority and Chile Vamos, were the New Majority and Karim Bianchi. His victory was totally unexpected.

You should know that students politics are a dumpster fire. And they were relevant, nowadays nobody cares. But in U de Chile you win by being more holier than thou, exactly how Boric won against more pragmatic Camila Vallejo.

But look, you didn't adress the core of my issue. To say one example, regarding the Ley de Inclusión, Boric spent years trashing it in Congress. I come from a población (poor neighborhood) and when I was 6 years old I got rejected by a Public School the moment my mum said our address. Now thanks to that law, and despite Boric best efforts, nobody will have to face that kind of discrimination and the educative apartheid this country has is on its way out. Now, I don't expect you, or Sr. Gabriel Boric Font, alumni of the fully private British School of Punta Arenas, to understand how deeply insulting was hearing him calling this law useless in all of his speeches engineered for the twitter crowd, but let's just say that the perennial FA problems with low income voters are deeper than "muh caciques/machines".

Also, please remind me of talking to you the next time I even consider voting FA, I don't want to make the same mistake again.

[Velasco]

Also, if you want to say that Boric has political skills (which he has), Errejón really is not a good comparison.  

I don't know if Errejón has political skills, but he is articulate and his parliamentary speeches are excellent.  As seb_pard correctly said, Errejón advocated building alliances beyond the classic left. However, I can't imagine Errejón opposing legislation like that Ley de Inclusión discussed in the Chilran parliament. During the last canpaign in Madrid,  I watched excerpts of his speeches in low income neighbourhoods  i can testify that Errejón has communication skills and is empathetic with the poor, despite UP rivals accuse him of being a BoBo leftist.  Errejón comes from an upper-middle class family and his father is a fascinating figure: a retired high ranking civil servant who worked with PSOE and PP administrations (currently he is member of an advisory council for European affairs in Madrid's regional assembly), as well a hard leftist and a pioneer of political ecologism in Spain. Very interesting your discussion on Gabriel Boric, I have to say. Please continue

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

can’t stop thinking about sharp’s super cool open letter signed by him and a bunch of people from his party in the Valpo government. Love to be an organic popular movement.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In an incredibly shocking twist that has stunned the entire Republic, Provoste is announcing her candidacy.

[kaoras]

In an incredibly shocking twist that has stunned the entire Republic, Provoste is announcing her candidacy.

Truly Unbelievable. There are rumours that she could even "freeze" her DC militancy, that's how toxic the brand is right now.

Backstabbing and maneuvering to withdraw Narvaez are underway. It will probably take like a week at least.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In an incredibly shocking twist that has stunned the entire Republic, Provoste is announcing her candidacy.

Truly Unbelievable. There are rumours that she could even "freeze" her DC militancy, that's how toxic the brand is right now.

Backstabbing and maneuvering to withdraw Narvaez are underway. It will probably take like a week at least.

I’ve seen 0 indication that Narváez has any plan to quit on her own, but the other options are also bad and every day they don’t decide on what to do just makes things worse? Do you think they’re going to have a party convention or an electronic vote or what?

[kaoras]

In an incredibly shocking twist that has stunned the entire Republic, Provoste is announcing her candidacy.

Truly Unbelievable. There are rumours that she could even "freeze" her DC militancy, that's how toxic the brand is right now.

Backstabbing and maneuvering to withdraw Narvaez are underway. It will probably take like a week at least.

I’ve seen 0 indication that Narváez has any plan to quit on her own, but the other options are also bad and every day they don’t decide on what to do just makes things worse? Do you think they’re going to have a party convention or an electronic vote or what?

Well, Provoste said that she is open to an "open, democratic and participative" mechanism that sounds like electronic voting. But it's the ex-concertación, so you should expect the most harmful and self-destroying option, so I wouldn't rule out backstabbing and back door maneuvering until Narvaez and Maldonado have no choice but to step down, or some farcical convention.

[H. Ross Peron]

Was the original understanding that Narvaez would be the only candidate for the former Concertacion parties?

[kaoras]

Was the original understanding that Narvaez would be the only candidate for the former Concertacion parties?

No, the original understanding was doing legal primaries, parallel to those of Apruebo Dignidad and Chile Vamos. Those would be between Narvaez, Heraldo Muñoz (PPD), Maldonado, Pablo Vidal (PL) and Ximena Rincón from the DC.

This all went to *** when PS tried to join the Apruebo Dignidad primary, Vidal and Muñoz backed down in favour of Narvaez who was supposed to represent them in the primary against Boric and Jadue. PC didn't want the PPD so this accord collapsed at the last minute and no legal primary was held.

DC also had tried to withdraw Ximena Rincón candidacy in favor of Provoste because she polled better according to one CADEM poll. She ended withdrawing but Provoste took until today to announce her candidacy.

Keep in mind this whole saga was very messy, so there are a lot of details and nuances lost there. There's quite a bit about this on this thread though.

[H. Ross Peron]

Was the original understanding that Narvaez would be the only candidate for the former Concertacion parties?

No, the original understanding was doing legal primaries, parallel to those of Apruebo Dignidad and Chile Vamos. Those would be between Narvaez, Heraldo Muñoz (PPD), Maldonado, Pablo Vidal (PL) and Ximena Rincón from the DC.

This all went to *** when PS tried to join the Apruebo Dignidad primary, Vidal and Muñoz backed down in favour of Narvaez who was supposed to represent them in the primary against Boric and Jadue. PC didn't want the PPD so this accord collapsed at the last minute and no legal primary was held.

DC also had tried to withdraw Ximena Rincón candidacy in favor of Provoste because she polled better according to one CADEM poll. She ended withdrawing but Provoste took until today to announce her candidacy.

Keep in mind this whole saga was very messy, so there are a lot of details and nuances lost there. There's quite a bit about this on this thread though.

Thanks for your explanation. I've been reading this thread on and off for a while but sometimes lose track of events if I haven't seen the previous posts in a while.