CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Brindisi is going to win. INCREDIBLY BASED.

Lone survivor.

LOL, he hasn't won yet!

Tell me how Tenney wins with 25k left out and an 8k vote difference.

Don’t jinx it

[KaiserDave]

Brindisi is going to win. INCREDIBLY BASED.

Lone survivor.

LOL, he hasn't won yet!

Tell me how Tenney wins with 25k left out and an 8k vote difference.

Don’t jinx it

Stares awkwardly

[2016]

Brindisi is going to win. INCREDIBLY BASED.

Lone survivor.

LOL, he hasn't won yet!

I know.

I think Tenney wins by less than 500 Votes.

[Skill and Chance]

Suozzi has now taken the lead in NY-03.  Could NY-02 even flip Dem with the absentees?

[Xing]

Looks like CA-25, NJ-07, and NY-22 are the only ones that are really up in the air, at this point.

[Roll Roons]

Looks like CA-25, NJ-07, and NY-22 are the only ones that are really up in the air, at this point.

Yeah. Republicans seem favored to flip CA-21 and UT-04 and hold NY-02. There's also the recount in IA-02, where Miller-Meeks (R) leads by less than 50 (!!!) votes.

How much is left to count in CA-25, NJ-07 and NY-22?

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like CA-25, NJ-07, and NY-22 are the only ones that are really up in the air, at this point.

What are the odds for each seat?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Of the 14 uncalled seats by the NY Times, here they are from most to least confident that we will win:

204. LA-5 Runoff
205. NY-1
206. NY-24
207. NY-11
208. NY-2
209. UT-4
210. CA-21
211. IA-2
212. NY-22
213. NJ-7
214. CA-25
215. NY-3
216. NY-18
217. NY-19

Frankly, something crazy happening with late ballots in some other CA or NJ race is probably more likely than the last two...

[LimoLiberal]

Finally found numbers for Oneida regarding NY-22:

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Absentee-ballots-close-gap-by-half-in-22nd-Congressional-District-race-573070791.html

Brindisi: 5543
Tenney: 1534

Excellent result for Brindisi here winning absentees in his home county by 56%, if this holds for the rest he'll probably win.

Districtwide margin

Tenney 147807 (51.9%)
Brindisi 137992 (48.4%)
9815 votes separate the two

Around 25k left to count.

Do we know where in Oneida County this is coming from? This is big.

[Roll Roons]

Finally found numbers for Oneida regarding NY-22:

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Absentee-ballots-close-gap-by-half-in-22nd-Congressional-District-race-573070791.html

Brindisi: 5543
Tenney: 1534

Excellent result for Brindisi here winning absentees in his home county by 56%, if this holds for the rest he'll probably win.

Districtwide margin

Tenney 147807 (51.9%)
Brindisi 137992 (48.4%)
9815 votes separate the two

Around 25k left to count.

Do we know where in Oneida County this is coming from? This is big.

Funny tidbit I found in that article - Tenney led Brindisi on election night by about 28K votes. It just so happens that Malinowski was also leading Kean by about the same amount on election night. Now, of course, both Brindisi and Kean have substantially closed the gap.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Something of note is that, even if the 214 map happens, we weren't actually that close to 218 because we would have won all the razor-thin races.  In fact, you have to go more than 2 points to get to MN-2, which appears to be the tipping point House race right now (IL-14, IA-3, and VA-7 being 215-217).  I suppose it is possible that one of the called NJ or CA districts winds up supplanting the 2.2 point Democratic win in MN-2 or that NY-3 stays within that margin.  Most of the close Democratic wins were in the 3-4 point range, while the Republicans may just about sweep the razor-thin margin races.

Closest Democratic Victories (leaving out NJ/CA/NY seats due to still very unclear margins):
1. IL-14: Underwood +1.0
2. IA-3: Axne +1.4
3. VA-7: Spanberger +1.8
4. MN-2: Craig +2.2
4. PA-17: Lamb +2.2
6. WI-3: Kind +2.8
7. TX-15: Gonzalez +2.9
8. TX-7: Fletcher +3.2
9. PA-8: Cartwright +3.4
9. AZ-1: O'Halleran +3.4
11. WA-8: Schrier +3.6
12. IL-17: Bustos +3.8
12. NV-3: Lee +3.8
12. PA-7: Wild +3.8
12. GA-7: Bordeaux +3.8

So, there were 15 seats (plus whatever NY/NJ/CA Democratic seats wind up in that threshold) that Democrats won by less than 4 points, but only 3 of those were decided by less than 2 points.

[Pericles]

How will that tipping point-seat ultimately vote relative to the national popular vote for the House?

[cinyc]

Yesterday they counted Johnson City absentees in Union Town which is a bit more D leaning compared to the township and county a whole.

What places have been counted or not counted? Johnson City is actually a village. Very confusing!

Yes, Johnson City is actually a village, not a city. They had a vote to dissolve the village in 2009 that lost by 42 votes.

As you probably know now from living in NY, villages are legal entities within towns. Its residents can vote in town elections, too.

[cinyc]

New Broome County absentees slightly better for Tenney, Brindisi still leads ~78-20 overall with them.

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1327293517819940865

ROSENBLATT leaves something to be desired as a reporter or whatever he is (other than a seeming cheer leader for Brindisi, which is OK because I don't like Tenney either, whatever). First, if the vote dump for the Town of Union is all of its absentees, then it has only about 11% of the absentees while it had 30% of the vote share of the county in the POTUS vote in 2016. And what is reported so far is only 36% of the absentees outstanding. (Binghamton had 19% of the vote share in 2016. Union Town is the largest municipality by population in the county, not the city). Something is weird here unless the municipality counts are partials. Rosenblatt of course cannot be bothered to enlighten us. The reporting on the Kean race in Jersey is infinitely better than this amateur hour performance.

In any event, this vote dump sucked for Brindisi. In a town that has a partisan lean that matches the county, in this dump, Brindisi only got 9% of the Pub/Con vote, not the 30%-35% he needs.

Oh yes, the city is not Philly - a Dem vote sink. Trump 2016 got 36.5% of its vote. He won the county by 2% in 2016.

 

Josh Rosenblatt is a reporter for the leading TV station in a very small TV market, and probably barely out of college. At least he's providing more info than we can easily get out of most of the NY County BoEs. Many journalists aren't great at math, but he's definitely trying.

[n1240]

Finally found numbers for Oneida regarding NY-22:

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Absentee-ballots-close-gap-by-half-in-22nd-Congressional-District-race-573070791.html

Brindisi: 5543
Tenney: 1534

Excellent result for Brindisi here winning absentees in his home county by 56%, if this holds for the rest he'll probably win.

Districtwide margin

Tenney 147807 (51.9%)
Brindisi 137992 (48.4%)
9815 votes separate the two

Around 25k left to count.

Do we know where in Oneida County this is coming from? This is big.

Wouldn't know, unfortunately.

Just some sort of attempt to parse things together -

Have seen three different counts I've seen for Oneida County:

Brindisi 1324 Tenney 448 (margin 48.9%)
Brindisi 4219 Tenney 1086  (margin 58.2%)
Brindisi 5543 Tenney 1534 (margin 55.9%)

Interestingly the sum of the first and second counts are equal to the third count. The second count seems a bit rosy for Brindisi which makes me think it's possible it includes Utica, which might make his path a bit more difficult. The first count may just be from one town, but I wouldn't know exactly, but it's probably from one of Rome or New Hartford based on the size, more likely the former. If it's from Rome it would be about a 60 point swing which is pretty consistent with what we've been seeing, while New Hartford would only be a 47 point swing which seems a bit low, but would be pretty bad for Brindisi if it were. Of course it's still possible that it's from a group of smaller towns but these are all just guesses anyways without official communication from the county.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

According to our Simi Valley field director, Mike's campaign estimates that there's just 2,479 votes remaining in the entirety of the district. I have no clue on the distribution, and neither does she. I imagine this is mostly in the LA part of CA-25.

[VAR]

Salt Lake County deserves to get nuked for this.

Don't blame Salt Lake County! It's what gave McAdams the win in 2018 and is keeping the race close in 2020. Burgess Owens is winning because of Utah, Juab, and Sanpete counties.

Yes, & McAdams is doing about the same in Salt Lake County as in 2018.

[Torie]

Yesterday they counted Johnson City absentees in Union Town which is a bit more D leaning compared to the township and county a whole.

What places have been counted or not counted? Johnson City is actually a village. Very confusing!

Yes, Johnson City is actually a village, not a city. They had a vote to dissolve the village in 2009 that lost by 42 votes.

As you probably know now from living in NY, villages are legal entities within towns. Its residents can vote in town elections, too.

Yes, and then there are villages that are in more than one town, like Chatham Village, that is mostly in the town of Chatham, but has its southern tail in the town of Ghent, and villages that are co-extensive with towns. And then there are hamlets with no legal significance, but have signs identifying them on the road, and census designated places such as Stottville within the town of Stockport that also have no legal significance but sometimes influence the perimeters of election districts. NYS is a trip.

In other news, the outcome of NY-22 has something to do with how many ballots there really are left to count. Cortland was 105% of what was there the day after election day in absentee ballots. and if there are 25,000 more to count, that is 112% of what was there. It is no longer lean Pub though. It's a tossup.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How will that tipping point-seat ultimately vote relative to the national popular vote for the House?

It's unclear, but probably still somewhat to the right of it.  Currently, the NYT has it at D+2.1, but that should grow somewhat.  The tipping point is right now looking to be MN-2/PA-17 at D+2.2, but I imagine that the final NPV is more like D+2.5-3.0.

[2016]

Source for Running House Tally

http://www.thegreenpapers.com

They have it at:

219 Democrats
205 Republicans
11 Race TBD (2 are Runoffs; GA-5 & LA-5)

The other 9 are as followed
California CD 21. Margin between top two vote getters: 1.4%, 2.2K votes.
California CD 25. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.031%, 104 votes.
Iowa CD 2. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.012%, 47 votes.
New York CD 1. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 2. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 3. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 18. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 19. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 22. Awaiting additional results.

[Roll Roons]

Wasserman thinks Brindisi may actually be slightly favored:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1327645312236871682

[Frenchrepublican]

Wasserman thinks Brindisi may actually be slightly favored:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1327645312236871682

If that's true Tenney should be prohibited of running for any office again.

[KaiserDave]

Wasserman thinks Brindisi may actually be slightly favored:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1327645312236871682

My joy is immeasurable and my day is made

[VAR]

LMAO, Tenney

[VAR]

Looks like we aren’t having the 19th Republican womxn newly elected to Congress, let's hope Queen Mariannette brings it home