2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

NY State certified election results show Trump ahead in Ontario County by 14 votes (was previously assumed Biden led by 70 votes).

[Mike88]

With the NY state results "certified", Biden now crossed the 7 million vote lead mark:

81,264,673 Biden
74,210,838 Trump

Biden +7,053,835

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1334464380054999042

Trump cult won't see it as over, they will just move on to convincing electors to switch votes.  It's a good thing Democrats held the house.  These dirtbags (the GOP) would move to impeach the minute they got in office otherwise.

[Skye]

An article with near complete count of Suffolk. With the amount of ballots remaining and partisan distribution it looks like Trump will hold on to a narrow win in the county, by about .3% (current lead ~8000 with 13558 to count, 6053 from Dems, 3375 from Reps, 3266 unaffiliated).

Cannot read the article due to the regulation protection thing, but it seems that Trump will win the county by just 3,000 votes or so, right?

From Westchester, is there any update?

NY State has now posted "certified" results (Westchester and Suffolk possibly not complete).

Total absentee vote in Westchester:

Biden 91408 (82.8%)
Trump 18700 (16.9%)

Suffolk:

Biden 108537 (71.6%)
Trump 42204 (27.8%)

Statewide total

Biden 5230985 (60.8%)
Trump 3244798 (37.8%)
Total 8594826

If my numbers are correct, Trump won Suffolk by a single point.

[cg41386]

Those numbers are so confusing with candidates in multiple parties.

[Mike88]

An article with near complete count of Suffolk. With the amount of ballots remaining and partisan distribution it looks like Trump will hold on to a narrow win in the county, by about .3% (current lead ~8000 with 13558 to count, 6053 from Dems, 3375 from Reps, 3266 unaffiliated).

Cannot read the article due to the regulation protection thing, but it seems that Trump will win the county by just 3,000 votes or so, right?

From Westchester, is there any update?

NY State has now posted "certified" results (Westchester and Suffolk possibly not complete).

Total absentee vote in Westchester:

Biden 91408 (82.8%)
Trump 18700 (16.9%)

Suffolk:

Biden 108537 (71.6%)
Trump 42204 (27.8%)

Statewide total

Biden 5230985 (60.8%)
Trump 3244798 (37.8%)
Total 8594826

If my numbers are correct, Trump won Suffolk by a single point.

He won Suffolk by a 49.9-48.9% margin.

[Hnv1]

An article with near complete count of Suffolk. With the amount of ballots remaining and partisan distribution it looks like Trump will hold on to a narrow win in the county, by about .3% (current lead ~8000 with 13558 to count, 6053 from Dems, 3375 from Reps, 3266 unaffiliated).

Cannot read the article due to the regulation protection thing, but it seems that Trump will win the county by just 3,000 votes or so, right?

From Westchester, is there any update?

NY State has now posted "certified" results (Westchester and Suffolk possibly not complete).

Total absentee vote in Westchester:

Biden 91408 (82.8%)
Trump 18700 (16.9%)

Suffolk:

Biden 108537 (71.6%)
Trump 42204 (27.8%)

Statewide total

Biden 5230985 (60.8%)
Trump 3244798 (37.8%)
Total 8594826

So NY finished with 0.51% swing D? Do we have the final map?

[Tender Branson]

Weirdly enough NY certified even though a number of counties haven't actually certified their results yet

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2020ElectionResults.html

NY tends to "certify" their statewide result and then amends the vote totals months later ...

See 2012:

*Certified December 31, 2012 (Certification amended April 9, 2013 and July 29, 2013)*

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2012ElectionResults.html

NY Board of Elections needs to be nuked.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2020 swang map thus far.

D****t Florida!

[Antonio the Sixth]

...huh, was the state supposed to certify today? This sounds like it's coming out of the blue.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I genuinely don't know what accounts for the sub-third-world election administration practices we see in New York. Between this, its absurdly restrictive laws about how to actually vote, and its consistently abysmal turnout, it might even have the worst elections culture of any state in the Union, getting away with it only because it's so safe at the federal level.

[Minnesota Mike]

Certified results from NY.

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2020ElectionResults.html

Joe Biden 5,230,985
Donald Trump 3,244,798

[n1240]

Insanely close if the latter number is correct (which I think is more likely than the NYS certified result count).

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334632896242593793

edit: suffolk results https://www.scribd.com/document/486855970/2020-General-Final-Results-Summary

[wbrocks67]

Really confused here - the PA SOS website is saying that the official totals " do not include any votes from mail ballots received between 8 p.m. on election day and 5 p.m. the following Friday."

Which i don't understand b/c they were legal votes and all of the court battles against not counting them lost...

It comes up at the top of the SOS site when you go there - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

[Benjamin Frank]

Certified results from NY.

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2020ElectionResults.html

Joe Biden 5,230,985
Donald Trump 3,244,798

I presume this certification does not include New York-22nd House race.

[Benjamin Frank]

Weirdly enough NY certified even though a number of counties haven't actually certified their results yet

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2020ElectionResults.html

NY tends to "certify" their statewide result and then amends the vote totals months later ...

See 2012:

*Certified December 31, 2012 (Certification amended April 9, 2013 and July 29, 2013)*

https://www.elections.ny.gov/2012ElectionResults.html

NY Board of Elections needs to be nuked.

That's crazy.  Why is New York so bad?

[Non Swing Voter]

2020 swang map thus far.

D****t Florida!

So every state in the country but FL and UT swung towards Biden but Republicans don't think there was any fraud at all in Florida?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So Biden didn't end up flipping Ontario co. after all? Dang.

Regarding the Suffolk county results, I'm inclined to believe the county over NYS because they have more votes counted... if that makes sense.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting that all of the biggest states trended R except for Texas, and Texas trended D much less than anticipated. 

[FrancoAgo]

you missed Hawaii and Arkansas

and i missed California, but this maybe could change

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Meanwhile on another planet...

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5604

[Tender Branson]

Oregon has certified as well.

Only 6 states left by my count.

10 left according to Cook Political Report.

Cook also has HI, ID, NE and WA as unofficial, which is clearly not the case.

NE and WA have even sent their certificates to the Archives already ...

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Tender Branson]

19/51 states have sent their certificates to the National Archives.

Can you make a map of the states that submitted their certificates? Just for fun.

During the weekend ...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Meanwhile on another planet...

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5604

Number of traders on the contract is maxed out.

[jimrtex]

Perusing the Certificates of Ascertainment that have been received by the National Archives

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020#certificates

I noted the following electors or elector candidates of note.

Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D)

Louisiana: Karen Carter Peterson (D-candidate), Woody Jenkins(R)

Michigan: Terry Lynn Land (R-candidate)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-candidate)

South Dakota: Kristi Noem(R), Larry Rhoden(R), Jason Ravnsborg(R)

Arizona: Kelli Ward (R-candidate), Barry Hess (L-candidate)

Alabama: Earl Hilliard, Jr. (D-candidate), he is Earl Hilliard's son.

Florida: Gwen Graham (D-candidate), Bill Nelson (D-candidate). Four write-in candidates had fewer popular votes than they had electors (29), with 9, 8, 2, and 1 popular votes. This may be the epitome of faithless elector.

Michigan: Ken Blackwell (R). Two candidates with fewer popular votes than electors (18 electors, 16 and 3 votes).

Pennsylvania: Lou Barletta (R-candidate)

Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D)

Wyoming: Milward Simpson (D-candidate), grandson of Milward Lee Simpson; nephew of Alan Kooi Simpson.

Montana: Thelma Baker (R), Googling, I found some very interesting stories.

Nebraska: Laura Ebke (L-candidate)

Tennessee: Tina Benkiser (R)

Certificates of Ascertainment are signed by the Governor of each State, thus Noem (R-SD) and Evers (D-WI) signed their own certificates. Neither added a hand-written comment: "<---- That's ME !!!!!!"

Most prosaic certificate: Wyoming; Most grandiose: Pennsylvania.

Nebraska gives the vote totals for each elector candidate, and then states that four Republicans and one Democrat electors have been notified by certified mail but does not actually list the individuals. I hope they sent the mail to the right electors.

Four pairs of Socialist Worker electors in Washington share an address, but not a last name.

I did not recognize any electors for Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts or Washington. Anybody see any notables?