2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[American2020]

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hahaha! Ducey's future in the GOP is over!

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin confirms.

35/51:

187 Trump
146 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Connecticut

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska (4 EV Trump, 1 EV Biden)
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

December 1st
Kansas

December 2nd
District of Columbia

December 3rd
Oregon
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Alaska (missed Nov. 25 deadline)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not all Hispanic swings can be explained by 'socialism scary', the simple fact is that the racial divide is shrinking and the class divide is growing. It is simply a swing among poorer minorities towards Republicans, not anything to do with fear of socialism.

That may be one explanation, but I don't think there is only one explanation for the Hispanic swing. It's often noted that they are not a monolithic demographic and that's showing itself to be very true this year.

https://twitter.com/ryanjreilly/status/1333439836959744002

Raffensperger has shown himself to be shockingly based for a Georgia Republican.

Everybody has a breaking point.

It also helps when you're not in Washington and have to be re-elected by the voters Trump wants to disregard.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not all Hispanic swings can be explained by 'socialism scary', the simple fact is that the racial divide is shrinking and the class divide is growing. It is simply a swing among poorer minorities towards Republicans, not anything to do with fear of socialism.

That may be one explanation, but I don't think there is only one explanation for the Hispanic swing. It's often noted that they are not a monolithic demographic and that's showing itself to be very true this year.

https://twitter.com/ryanjreilly/status/1333439836959744002

Raffensperger has shown himself to be shockingly based for a Georgia Republican.

Everybody has a breaking point.

It also helps when you're not in Washington and have to be re-elected by the voters Trump wants to disregard.

Raffensperger has gained a ton of respect from Democrats and non-Trump Republicans in this election.  Assuming he survives a primary challenge from the right, I think he's a lock for re-election in 2022 -- and quite possibly a candidate for governor in 2026 (Kemp will be term-limited out if he wins in '22).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hahaha! Ducey's future in the GOP is over!

Looks like killing Ducey and Kemp is just gonna accelerate the Virginification of GA and AZ lmao. They have such a limited bench in both states.

[RI]

Alaska's results are listed as official now.

[Tender Branson]

Nebraska also certified, while CO didn’t (there’s a Covid-outbreak in Gunninson County and some recount going on).

[Tender Branson]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

38/51:

200 Trump
147 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Connecticut

November 30th
Alaska
Arizona
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska (4 EV Trump, 1 EV Biden)
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

December 1st
Kansas

December 2nd
District of Columbia

December 3rd
Oregon
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Colorado (missed Nov. 30 deadline)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[DINGO Joe]

Despite most other counties in California being mostly done counting, Lake County is only at 40% and has been since election night. Does anyone know what's going on there?

Lake, not unlike NYC, has an established history of not providing vote updates until they are done and and post their final numbers, it's pretty rate in California to do this, but Lake does it.

[FrancoAgo]

West Virginia did

[wbrocks67]

Not all Hispanic swings can be explained by 'socialism scary', the simple fact is that the racial divide is shrinking and the class divide is growing. It is simply a swing among poorer minorities towards Republicans, not anything to do with fear of socialism.

Which, much like poor WWC voting for Republicans, is so interesting to me given the fact that it's totally voting against your own interests, and Republicans are the last people who are going to help them.

[Gustaf]

Trump kind of campaigned (both times) on NOT hating the poor and NOT being a religious fanatic. While at the same time being culturally conservative in a secular way - liking macho stuff, police, army, law and order, strong borders.

I think that is a message that worked very well with the white working class in the North in 2016. I think it may have spread more to groups that they targeted less in 2016 and more in 2020, i.e. minority male working-class voters.

Now you might say that a lot of this Trumpist rhetoric is BS belied by reality. To some extent that is true, but then again, the economy has been pretty good until covid! I suspect a fair number of minority voters may have given him some credit for that. Those who bought Trump's argument about how Democrats shutting down things was the reason for any economic woes might have still supported him.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The "voting against your own interests" line has seemed kind of weak to me ever since I realized that it's never used for upper-middle-class suburbanites drifting away from a party that's obsessed with deficit-financed tax cuts. It's only poorer people who are expected to vote their economic self-interest rather than their cultural or religious values, and, the on-paper reasonableness of this expectation aside, the tone-deaf bafflement with which it's expressed has the effect of making Democrats look like they feel entitled to the working-class vote.

[vileplume]

Not all Hispanic swings can be explained by 'socialism scary', the simple fact is that the racial divide is shrinking and the class divide is growing. It is simply a swing among poorer minorities towards Republicans, not anything to do with fear of socialism.

Which, much like poor WWC voting for Republicans, is so interesting to me given the fact that it's totally voting against your own interests, and Republicans are the last people who are going to help them.

The type of non-white voter that likely swung Republican the most and I reckon is fairly likely to continue to do so long term are the non-college middle class not the very poor. Think small business owners, cops and decently paid, skilled, manual workers. The genuinely poverty stricken non-whites who struggle to make ends meet will have stayed solidly behind the Democrats (those that voted anyway) and will remain so long term.

[wbrocks67]

Are we expecting the full NYC vote today then?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1333651842933420032

[libertpaulian]

Former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz wants to head the Florida Dems:

https://twitter.com/Fla_Pol/status/1333788173676158976

And David Pepper is stepping down as Ohio Dem Chair after the holidays:

https://twitter.com/jfreeds09/status/1333493797578268673

[Mike88]

Any idea when the NYC board of elections will certify the results during today?

[Gass3268]

Anyone know what the heck is up with Tennessee?

[DabbingSanta]

Just playing around on maps and found Kendall County, IL.  It voted 52-46 Biden. That's only the second time the county has voted for a Democratic candidate since Franklin Pierce in 1852!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Anyone know what the heck is up with Tennessee?

The SOS office closed for five days for Thanksgiving, but they're back now, so maybe we will get it soon.  I'm looking forward to it for precinct data.

[Tender Branson]

Kansas has certified:

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-tracey-mann-senate-elections-64a216d8cc3aebe41ba20b0f4d14e622

[Tender Branson]

Only 2 Trump states are left: TN and MO

[Gass3268]

We will indeed be getting New York City results today:

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1333838798430621698?s=20

Not sure what time exactly.