2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tender Branson]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

31/51:

184 Trump
121 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Connecticut

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska

December 1st
Kansas
Wisconsin

December 2nd
District of Columbia

December 3rd
Oregon
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Alaska (missed Nov. 25 deadline)
Rhode Island (results last updated Nov. 24, not yet official)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Are there any Clinton-Trump states out of this?

South Florida could very well be one. I think that one goes down to the wire. Clinton won it by 7, so with a 22-point swing in Miami-Dade and a 5-point swing in Broward you can see how things get very close. Democratic swings in the Tampa Bay area and the Southwestern coast might ease things a bit, but I still think that one is within 1 point either way.

Rio Grande and California are off-chances too, but I doubt it. Clinton won RG by 10, and the Democratic swings in the Austin-San Antonio area should seriously tamp down whatever happened near the river itself. California was only a 2-point win in 2016, but it most likely swung to Biden given that Kern, Fresno and Sacramento did (though it definitely trended R). So I'd say maybe one, maybe none.

I'm not familiar with the actual borders of your maps, but I can tell you that Biden outright won the Texas Triangle and adding the Rio Grande Valley moves it further to the left (although by less than it historically would.) If the state of Rio Grande drops Houston and Dallas, it should be a pretty comfortable Biden win.

As for Florida, Biden wins everything below the Alachua-Volusia Line, Trump wins if the state includes anything further north.

[Hammy]

Indiana?

Yes?

It trended D this year and isn't anywhere near the same level as the others
I know, I'm an Indiana simp

It's a meme.

And Indiana was the home of the KKK for years, it deserves a place here. But, again, it's a meme, I don't understand the Atlas obsession with arguing about every minor thing. Don't miss the forest for the trees.

Clearly you're new here. It's the primary thing Atlas does at any given time.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Great info on how Tarrant County, TX voted (2016 compared to 2020 and some demographic info on precinct level differences):

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article247074617.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there any Clinton-Trump states out of this?

South Florida could very well be one. I think that one goes down to the wire. Clinton won it by 7, so with a 22-point swing in Miami-Dade and a 5-point swing in Broward you can see how things get very close. Democratic swings in the Tampa Bay area and the Southwestern coast might ease things a bit, but I still think that one is within 1 point either way.

Rio Grande and California are off-chances too, but I doubt it. Clinton won RG by 10, and the Democratic swings in the Austin-San Antonio area should seriously tamp down whatever happened near the river itself. California was only a 2-point win in 2016, but it most likely swung to Biden given that Kern, Fresno and Sacramento did (though it definitely trended R). So I'd say maybe one, maybe none.

I'm not familiar with the actual borders of your maps, but I can tell you that Biden outright won the Texas Triangle and adding the Rio Grande Valley moves it further to the left (although by less than it historically would.) If the state of Rio Grande drops Houston and Dallas, it should be a pretty comfortable Biden win.

As for Florida, Biden wins everything below the Alachua-Volusia Line, Trump wins if the state includes anything further north.

Rio Grande (2012 election):


South Florida (2000-2012 swing, funny how things change...):

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/compujeramey/status/1332467869548941313?s=21

[forza nocta]

So if Dane finishes on Sunday, the state should be certified the same day, right?

[Gass3268]

So if Dane finishes on Sunday, the state should be certified the same day, right?

Scheduled to be certified on Tuesday.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Looks like Ohio has had the lowest increase in vote so far.

Ohio really stands out vs. the rest of the Midwest.  Trump basically held his entire 2016 margin. Even Iowa shifted somewhat toward Biden.  Wonder what makes Ohio different?

The Ohio River Valley is one giant death zone for Democrats, it is turning into another WV in that part of Ohio.

[Benjamin Frank]

Indiana has posted official results.  I don't know if they're any different than the previous results, but they have changed their website to say 'these results are final.'

[President Johnson]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

[Torrain]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

31/51:

184 Trump
121 Biden

Further evidence that Biden is home and dry.

Even if the last two Trump-Biden swing states (AZ and WI), plus NE-02 ended up mired in some judicial BS, there are enough Safe-D states to take Biden to 284 votes.

I don't think Giuliani is about to pull off some great surprise/coup, but it's nice to be one step closer to Trump's removal from office.

[Annatar]

I have been looking through both the Edison and AP exit polls, both have issues but I am of the opinion the AP exit poll is more accurate, the margins of different groups make more sense.

[Annatar]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

[DINGO Joe]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

[Inmate Trump]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

[Calthrina950]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

Last week, I made the point that Democrats are becoming the party of the wealthy, and received much blowback for it. This seems to provide further evidence of that trend. Biden obviously still carried every group aside from non-college educated whites and middle-income voters, but Trump's gains among almost every group-except for college-educated whites-nevertheless should be concerning to the Democrats.

[DINGO Joe]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

[Bootes Void]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

Last week, I made the point that Democrats are becoming the party of the wealthy, and received much blowback for it. This seems to provide further evidence of that trend. Biden obviously still carried every group aside from non-college educated whites and middle-income voters, but Trump's gains among almost every group-except for college-educated whites-nevertheless should be concerning to the Democrats.

No disrespect but why would it be concerning. Also your implying most Democrats are wealthy why is why you might get blowback

[Calthrina950]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

Last week, I made the point that Democrats are becoming the party of the wealthy, and received much blowback for it. This seems to provide further evidence of that trend. Biden obviously still carried every group aside from non-college educated whites and middle-income voters, but Trump's gains among almost every group-except for college-educated whites-nevertheless should be concerning to the Democrats.

No disrespect but why would it be concerning. Also your implying most Democrats are wealthy why is why you might get blowback

I've explained elsewhere at some length my discomfort with the party realignments we are seeing. I'd rather for the Democratic Party to be the Party for working classes of all stripes then a Party that is not.

[Person Man]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

Last week, I made the point that Democrats are becoming the party of the wealthy, and received much blowback for it. This seems to provide further evidence of that trend. Biden obviously still carried every group aside from non-college educated whites and middle-income voters, but Trump's gains among almost every group-except for college-educated whites-nevertheless should be concerning to the Democrats.

No disrespect but why would it be concerning. Also your implying most Democrats are wealthy why is why you might get blowback

I've explained elsewhere at some length my discomfort with the party realignments we are seeing. I'd rather for the Democratic Party to be the Party for working classes of all stripes then a Party that is not.

How do you change that when it appears that everyone at the moment is voting for someone else’s interests. Empathy is great but it doesn’t really work in democracy.

[Badger]

THE CERTIFYING DUTCHMAN!

Seriously, though, it's still unsettling that it came to this. God only knows what AVL would have done if Nessel hadn't threatened to #LockHimUp. (Literally God only knows; there's an entire theological question about to what extent He "knows" counterfactuals.)

That Dutchman is my cousin!

You and your family have genuine cause to be very very proud. I'm so disappointed that he's probably going to Forfeit and otherwise promising career in Michigan GOP politics. He deserves far better.

[Badger]

Texas is not a purple state.... yet!

I mean, you could definitely call a state Trump won by 5.6 "Purple."

Sadly, Ohio arguably isn't anymore.

[Gass3268]

Biden did 9 points better in Erie County, NY than Hillary did.

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1332746829893660673?s=20

[FrancoAgo]

2 things to note in the 2018 AP exits vs 2020. College white voters and high income voters voted like they did in 2018, Trump did better with lower income voters, non-college whites and non-college non whites vs the GOP in 2018. Below are the margins:

Non college Whites:
2018: R+20
2020: R+25

College White:
2018: -4R
2020: -6R

Non-college non-white:
2018: -57R
2020: -48R

College non-white:
2018: -49R
2020: -48R

Incomes:
2018:  <$50,000: -17R
2020: <$50,000: -8R

2018: $50-$99,000: -2R
2020: $50-$99,000: +2R

2018: >$100,000: -5R
2020: >$100,000: -4R

Basically, Trump improved by 9% among voters under $50,000 vs 2018, improved 4% among voters earning $50,000 - $99,000 and gained 1% among voters making over $100,000.

The conclusion is college whites making over $100,000 were likely the only group that became more democratic between 2018-2020.

with this numbers as Biden win?